PSU-XBox 360: Board reuse

[Xx3of19xX]

I am almost convinced now that the synth bug has been "fixed" on the 360. I've now had 5 failures on my Howrods (4 after retries) and 2 on Mayrods (1 retry). The odds for so many failures on a 100% Tech PM happening in a row are tiny: less than 0.7%!
0.7% is certainly still possible for a single person to encounter, so I need some people to help me increase my sample size to either confirm or debunk this.

And so I'm asking:
Anyone who has failed a synth since the last update and has reused the board, have you had a success when reusing the board?

Of course, since this IS indeed cheating I shouldn't really be complaining. But if this indeed is true, it is a rather annoying way of fixing the bug, I'd have preferred an "honest" fix than this.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Xx3of19xX on 2007-01-29 10:50 ]</font>

[T2]

I have failed 5 H'duki Haddocs (61%) in a row.... I am trying with three more, if they fail I will not cancel synth and see what happens

[JAFO22000]

Sounds like bad luck to me. I believe this issue has been fixed on the PC/PS2 servers. And by fixed, I mean that you lose your mats AND your board use if you restart after failing.

It would've been funny had they decided to fix it as your scenario suggests. I wonder how long people would continue to waste their mats before they figured it out!!

[Xx3of19xX]

From what I heard, the option to cancel a synth disappears once the timer has expired on PC/PS2.

The question is if this bug is a client side or server side issue. If it is client side, Sega would have to patch the game, which they can. BUT any client side patches like this have to be certified by Microsoft, a process that can take a couple of weeks. So if they really wanted to fix this NOW a possible way to do it would be like this.

[twysted]

i have a friend who has failed 3-4 cubo upinde in a row so maybe they did fix it....

[JAFO22000]

BTW, I made 2 of 3 Mayrods, 1 of 3 Howrods, 3 of 3 Hajirods and 7 of 8 Tomoirods since Wednesday. I have never used this exploit.

[Xx3of19xX]

Well, I'd love to hear from somone who used the bug on the 360 since Friday and got a success afterwards. Because that would put the theory to bed.

[drizzle]

My PM fails 50% on a 79% chance item... don't believe anything your PM tells you http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_razz.gif

[Magician]

Waiting on a Muktrand synth for when I get home.

I'll let you know.

[JAFO22000]

On 2007-01-29 10:02, drizzle wrote:
My PM fails 50% on a 79% chance item... don't believe anything your PM tells you http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_razz.gif




...I still don't think people understand the percentages. Just because you have a 79% chance of making an item does NOT mean that you will make 8 out of 10 of that item.

[Xx3of19xX]

True. because sample sizes are too small. But if you tried 100 times on a 79% synth you should get closer. However, repeated fails are at the least a statistical oddity, no? 5 failures at 61%, 5 at 49%
Just like I said before. 5 fails in a row (just checked my notes, 5, not 4) on a Howrod are very unlikely, about 3.4%



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Xx3of19xX on 2007-01-29 10:53 ]</font>

[JAFO22000]

No, it's like a coin flip. There is an equal chance to get either heads or tails. If you flip a coin 50 time and get 50 heads, the odds of getting another head on your next flip is.............















.....still 50%! A coin has no memory. It's 50/50 everytime! If you flip a coin 10 times, you have just as much chance to get 10 heads as you do to get 9 heads/1 tail or 8 heads/2 tails or 7 heads/3 tails or 6 heads/4 tails or ANY combination. Same odds.

OK, another example. Do you think it's easier to get 10 heads in 10 flips or to get the following in 10 flips: H,H,T,T,T,T,T,H,T,T? You have the same odds to get both.

This theory holds true for the Roulette table as well. Ever see anyone at these tables look at the screen which shows the past 25 numbers that hit?

"Oh, 17 hasn't hit in awhile, it's due!"
-puts money on 17 for the next 10 spins.

Again, the roulette wheel has no memory. 17 could not hit all night. Smartest thing the casino's did was to include this screen. I'm sure they got a lot of money back just from adding it! Again, 17 does not have to be "due". It has no larger nor smaller chance of hitting with each consectutive spin.

[Haze111]

My ranged PM has an 85% chance at making Vullseye. I had one use left on a board and failed twice on Friday. I tried again the next day and it was successful.

[Rashiid]

ull knoe when its fixed because when once its done (0:00), theres no 'cancel' option

so u get wat u get

[Xx3of19xX]

On 2007-01-29 11:00, JAFO22000 wrote:
No, it's like a coin flip. There is an equal chance to get either heads or tails. If you flip a coin 50 time and get 50 heads, the odds of getting another head on your next flip is.............
.....still 50%! A coin has no memory. It's 50/50 everytime! If you flip a coin 10 times, you have just as much chance to get 10 heads as you do to get 9 heads/1 tail or 8 heads/2 tails or 7 heads/3 tails or 6 heads/4 tails or ANY combination. Same odds.

OK, another example. Do you think it's easier to get 10 heads in 10 flips or to get the following in 10 flips: H,H,T,T,T,T,T,H,T,T? You have the same odds to get both.

This theory holds true for the Roulette table as well. Ever see anyone at these tables look at the screen which shows the past 25 numbers that hit?

"Oh, 17 hasn't hit in awhile, it's due!"
-puts money on 17 for the next 10 spins.

Again, the roulette wheel has no memory. 17 could not hit all night. Smartest thing the casino's did was to include this screen. I'm sure they got a lot of money back just from adding it! Again, 17 does not have to be "due". It has no larger nor smaller chance of hitting with each consectutive spin.


That is true, to a degree. While each individual coinflip is 50%, the comulative odds of getting, say 5 heads in a row (or any specific sequence of 5 results) is 0.5^5 or 3.125%. There are 2^5 or 64 different sequences and each single one is just as likely as the next.
Of course AFTER you already have had 4 heads, the odds of getting a 5th are 50%, because you already met the prequeristique (of the 64 total sequences, you already eliminated all that didn't have 4 heads as the first four results, leaving only HHHHH and HHHHT as the possible outcomes of the 5th toss).

So if I try yet again to synth a Howrod, the chances of it succeeding are still 49%, but the total chance of failing six times out of six is 0.51^6 or 1.76%. Naturally, were I to try and synth a Howrod say 1000 times, the odds of a bad streak like that increase, but I'd also approach the average of 49% successful synths total.

Another comparison is grinding a weapon up to +10. Say the chances of getting a successful grind are in sequence from +1 -> +10. 99%, 95, 92, 89, 85, 80, 75, 70, 65, and 60% for the individual steps. So the total chance of getting the weapon all the way are .99*.95*.92*.89.85*.80*.75*.70*.65 or roughly 17.85%.
Of course, once you DO have it all the way to +9, in this example, the chances are pretty good, 65%, to get the +10.

The roulette example is also fun. And for the gamer who sits down at a table and plays ten spins, hoping that "due" number comes up the odds are indeed bad:
1 - (36/37)^10 or just about 36% (but as you correctly note, he's just as likely to win with any of the 37 numbers).

[l_Will_l]

lol im not trying to flame anyone or anything thats not why im posting. if it sounds like it im sorry. yes sega didnt see everything thru and ppl could reuse boards. but its just a game ppl. who cares if it fails. there will always be other boards. its not like real life and if u lose it thats it. go out and find another one eventually. if it fails, it fails thats the way the games supposed to be. sorry to rain on anyone but i play fairly and have lost many boards and such because of this. but im not worried. when this happens it just makes those rare weps and such even more rare. like if there was never a money hack or boards glich ppl wouldnt be running around with like 1000 a ranks on them. they were pricy in the stores before all the meseta to begin with. anyways, i cant fully explain what im tryin to say cause i just woke up so i hope that kinda stated what i felt. http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_smile.gif

[shewby]

dudes, i went 0 for 9 on 9* weapons. then got to 1 for 12 total. no reuses. whats the chance of that? then 3 for 4 with one reuse on an Ulteri board.

[JAFO22000]

On 2007-01-29 12:53, Xx3of19xX wrote:

On 2007-01-29 11:00, JAFO22000 wrote:
No, it's like a coin flip. There is an equal chance to get either heads or tails. If you flip a coin 50 time and get 50 heads, the odds of getting another head on your next flip is.............
.....still 50%! A coin has no memory. It's 50/50 everytime! If you flip a coin 10 times, you have just as much chance to get 10 heads as you do to get 9 heads/1 tail or 8 heads/2 tails or 7 heads/3 tails or 6 heads/4 tails or ANY combination. Same odds.

OK, another example. Do you think it's easier to get 10 heads in 10 flips or to get the following in 10 flips: H,H,T,T,T,T,T,H,T,T? You have the same odds to get both.

This theory holds true for the Roulette table as well. Ever see anyone at these tables look at the screen which shows the past 25 numbers that hit?

"Oh, 17 hasn't hit in awhile, it's due!"
-puts money on 17 for the next 10 spins.

Again, the roulette wheel has no memory. 17 could not hit all night. Smartest thing the casino's did was to include this screen. I'm sure they got a lot of money back just from adding it! Again, 17 does not have to be "due". It has no larger nor smaller chance of hitting with each consectutive spin.


That is true, to a degree. While each individual coinflip is 50%, the comulative odds of getting, say 5 heads in a row (or any specific sequence of 5 results) is 0.5^5 or 3.125%. There are 2^5 or 64 different sequences and each single one is just as likely as the next.
Of course AFTER you already have had 4 heads, the odds of getting a 5th are 50%, because you already met the prequeristique (of the 64 total sequences, you already eliminated all that didn't have 4 heads as the first four results, leaving only HHHHH and HHHHT as the possible outcomes of the 5th toss).

So if I try yet again to synth a Howrod, the chances of it succeeding are still 49%, but the total chance of failing six times out of six is 0.51^6 or 1.76%. Naturally, were I to try and synth a Howrod say 1000 times, the odds of a bad streak like that increase, but I'd also approach the average of 49% successful synths total.

Another comparison is grinding a weapon up to +10. Say the chances of getting a successful grind are in sequence from +1 -> +10. 99%, 95, 92, 89, 85, 80, 75, 70, 65, and 60% for the individual steps. So the total chance of getting the weapon all the way are .99*.95*.92*.89.85*.80*.75*.70*.65 or roughly 17.85%.
Of course, once you DO have it all the way to +9, in this example, the chances are pretty good, 65%, to get the +10.

The roulette example is also fun. And for the gamer who sits down at a table and plays ten spins, hoping that "due" number comes up the odds are indeed bad:
1 - (36/37)^10 or just about 36% (but as you correctly note, he's just as likely to win with any of the 37 numbers).




OK, got it! Making 1 out of the 6 should have better odds because out of six 50% chances, there can be 6 possible outcomes (F=fail, M=make):

M,F,F,F,F,F
F,M,F,F,F,F
F,F,M,F,F,F
F,F,F,M,F,F
F,F,F,F,M,F
or
F,F,F,F,F,M

wheras if you failed all of them, there is only one pattern, or F,F,F,F,F,F. This has the same percentage as making all 6, or M,M,M,M,M,M. Going one, making 5 and failing 1 would have the same percentage as making 1 and failing 5.

As with the coin flip example, the odds of getting at least 1 "heads" and 5 "tails" in six flips is better than the odds of getting all 6 "tails", because it doesn't matter on which flip the head comes up. I get it.

It's been awhile since I took my one and only statistics class in college (I hated it!!).

Thanks!

[Xx3of19xX]

If you cannot reuse the boards for, in this example Howrods, your average production costs change from:
Material costs/0.49 + 55000 to (Material Costs + 55000)/0.49, an increase of almost 57K Meseta, pushing the price over the psychological 300K mark. On top of that you have huge costs for developing your PM (which I guess eventually may pay off when the bug is fixed and you're talking rare boards) and the time spent hunting for cheap materials, you might just as well spend on grinding Bruce or whatever and get some drops yourself.
On the 360 57K is quite a chunk of money, and not just something you get from a Mad Creatures C run and selling the Photons for Haxeta.

[l_Will_l]

really the money isnt even the problem. sure everything is hugely overpriced rite now. but if u think about it, if there wasnt a board glitch and still the money hack just the pricing of everything changes and really shops could still work out. jsut the pricing would be higher on everything like it is. but its the board glitch is the reason everyone is walking around with every 9* in every element. if it wasnt around, ppl wouldnt be selling a store full of 1 type of 9* and element photons wouldnt be the prices they are

[JAFO22000]

On 2007-01-29 13:45, l_Will_l wrote:
really the money isnt even the problem. sure everything is hugely overpriced rite now. but if u think about it, if there wasnt a board glitch and still the money hack just the pricing of everything changes and really shops could still work out. jsut the pricing would be higher on everything like it is. but its the board glitch is the reason everyone is walking around with every 9* in every element. if it wasnt around, ppl wouldnt be selling a store full of 1 type of 9* and element photons wouldnt be the prices they are



No, it is a problem. When you can buy everything you need for a synth from the NPC (except the photons) for pocket change, in the PC/PS2 economy, one can attempt many more synths, thus yeilding better element percents. The reason everyone is walking around with "every 9* in every element" is that money is not an issue. The glitch is pointless as you would still lose your mats, but the board costs next to nothing so what's the point of abusing the glitch? You can just sell another ray photon and by 10 more boards and start cooking 10 9* weapons...

[l_Will_l]

sorry i didnt know they sell 9 star boards. i dont check out the synthing stores really. if i need something i look in player shops first. i dont have crazy amounts of money like some ppl do. i dont sell photons for 100k. im not trying to get rich in this game or sything tons of items to sell them all. again i thought u could get all these boards from ppl alone and drops. which is why ive never bought a board of someone cause everyone sells them for like a mill. sega should have something that limits players raising prices on items that are in npc shops. like i went looking for scapes last night and someone had 5 stacks of 10 in there store for 20k each? like wtf they are 5k like only.... everywhere in the game everyone knows the goin rate on a scape why would u put them up for 20k? u really expect ppl to buy them? lol he probibly went to the shop bought them and jacked the price. same goes with ebons. i seen ebons for 100k last night? they are 4 in npc's i sell em for 3 cause i buy boards and convert all the wood and ashes i have saved up from doing run after run.

[JAFO22000]

All ST would need to do is add 4 zeros to the end of everything sold in the NPC shop. That would slow things down a bit.