Ok, what is going on here?

[Siertes]

I have recently completed a Pure Armor PM and my first four Yamata-Senba synths have ALL SUCCEEDED! What the hell is going on? I fail tons of 49%+ synths, but to have four 37% chance synths succeed in succession...Something isn't right.

When somebody has a small lucky streak like this, something bad is bound to happen in the near future. I've got my eye on you Sega.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v75/Siertes/PSU/armorplot.jpg

[Micro]

I wish my armor pm could synth 4 in a row, think I've made 5 out of 30 so far, it's sad and a money sink. >_<

[Retehi]

The first S-rank weapon you get will break now.

[Dj_SkyEpic]

I'll comfort you when the time comes http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/anime2.gif

[amtalx]

Luck is luck. That's all there is to it. From a strictly statistical standpoint, its just as likely for you to make 37 Yamata-Senbas in a row without any failures as it is to make them with intermittent succeses.

[Libram]

On 2007-03-30 10:27, amtalx wrote:
Luck is luck. That's all there is to it. From a strictly statistical standpoint, its just as likely for you to make 37 Yamata-Senbas in a row without any failures as it is to make them with intermittent succeses.


That is very wrong. The chance at having 37 successful synths in a row is 1 out of 137438953472, or 0.0000000007%.

[Dhylec]

Be happy that you successfully synthed them. Some never got that much luck. ;]

[amtalx]

Not quite...for something like this (independent events) the previous result has no effect on future results. It's counter-intuitive but true (I do this for a living http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_smile.gif ) That is provided that these events are independent and NOT dependant. I don't know what ST has up their sleeve.

[Libram]

How are 37 successful synths in a row independent? This is a string of events, and when one fails the whole string is destroyed.

[amtalx]

What I meant there was assuming your data set has 100 trials. Sorry, I didn't say that. If you try 100 times regardless of the result, then what I said is true. Hope that clears things up.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: amtalx on 2007-03-30 10:48 ]</font>

[Dj_SkyEpic]

Karma and Murphy's law is what goes through our minds now and days. When you do something great, you feel as if though something bad will occur afterwards to balance out your day. All just theories of real-life living that we've come to follow.

Maybe some of you don't believe such superstition, but I do and I can tell that the Siertes does too http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/anime1.gif.

My story; I just made a 50% Crimson Line after mass producing for my good friend Phoenix. I waited out on giving him the item by giving him all the low percentage ones first. It came as 5 out of 20 that succeeded though. His reaction... :
http://i42.photobucket.com/albums/e349/skyepic/psu20070331_031313_013.jpg

My face ----- > " ;D ". It was really fun to just sit there for 10 minutes watching Phoenix go "OMGggggg."
Hehe... It's Karma, at least I recieve satisfaction of my friends happiness.

[Eleina]

No one can beat my armour pm!!! it has been used to synth 20 armour in total and made onlly one 10% yamata......in the near future i think i'll go and use other ppl's pms or i should invest in a pm 0 device to teach mine a lesson.....
D.J's one seems to work some magic......It must be some newman poxer rubbing off on it

[Dj_SkyEpic]

o....o It was after 42 synths that one came out x.x; I shouldn't say how much I spent on it XD but if you calculated you can see! But I can definitely help you out Eleina ;D

[doubleEXP]

On 2007-03-30 10:10, Siertes wrote:
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v75/Siertes/PSU/armorplot.jpg


Hehe, great pic!

[Gryffin]

http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_beer.gif Here's hoping to lack of a apocalyptic failure... http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif

[Jenova34]

Hehe, yay,

And hey, I gave the photon and the board for this one, Dj bought the Vestaline and Vulcaline (Kerseline?)

Thank you DJ anyway!!!! And thanks the Dj's PM ; XD

Phoenix



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Jenova34 on 2007-03-30 12:12 ]</font>

[fgfdsas]

lucky

[Kaydin]

Maybe your PM is luring you into a false sence of security. Once you begin to trust it, it will try and kill you. o.o

[Siertes]

Hmm I just recently got a Rappy Spawn after only a few attempts.

Though I didn't get to SEE them because I got kicked out of the party by the leader, but I got the Rappy Feather and Easter Egg that dropped after said leader came back out. Guess he didn't get his Halp Serafi board http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_rolleyes.gif

BLACKLISTED

Should I consider this luck that is boiling up to a major catastrophe for me?

[Dragwind]

On 2007-03-30 14:42, Siertes wrote:
Hmm I just recently got a Rappy Spawn after only a few attempts.

Though I didn't get to SEE them because I got kicked out of the party by the leader, but I got the Rappy Feather and Easter Egg that dropped after said leader came back out. Guess he didn't get his Halp Serafi board http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_rolleyes.gif

BLACKLISTED

Should I consider this luck that is boiling up to a major catastrophe for me?



Wow he must have really wanted that halp serafi board badly to boot the party members that helped him. Thats rather rude imo. Anyways, congrats on your armors =D

dont even own a single 50% armor XD