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View Full Version : What you think of this "opinion/theory" concerning synths an



Fulgore
May 16, 2007, 07:56 PM
Hello All......just wondering what you think of this "opinion/theory" concerning synths and percentages.....

So this guy is talking to me one time about "how many weapons are released to the publik per day" and it got me to thinking....what if percents really don't matter then......I mean, you will probably fall into a "priority" list based on your percent and all but what if your timing was the key ingredient....to be first on the list to receive your item so to speak?

LOL! http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_lol.gif

Ok, BS'ing aside.....I got to thinking that if you synth something and leave it in your PM until just after the daily reset and then pull it out your chances would be higher to get the item your after because their would be a new supply for the day?

.....what do you all think? I HAVE noticed that I get more successful synths when I Pull Out sooner than later in the day...

--
Mod edit: title

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Dhylec on 2007-05-16 18:46 ]</font>

Micro
May 16, 2007, 07:57 PM
A friend kept a Muktrand in a PM for 5 days i think, came out 50% Dark, I call dumb luck http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_razz.gif

Fulgore
May 16, 2007, 07:58 PM
On 2007-05-16 17:57, Micro wrote:
A friend kept a Muktrand in a PM for 5 days i think, came out 50% Dark, I call dumb luck http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_razz.gif



.... o_O I rest my case!

EDIT: OH, actually that too.....I've noticed that the longer you leave in it also seems to come out more successful...like, not pulling out "right after" it's supposed to be done....let it stay in the oven awhile longer http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Fulgore on 2007-05-16 17:59 ]</font>

Africa
May 16, 2007, 08:11 PM
That depends if your pm likes you or not. I think that your weapons fate is decided when you start to synth then you have to wait x hours to find out. Also cooking 2 or more weapons doesn't effect the chance of failure or success.

Umberger
May 16, 2007, 08:30 PM
If you really want to test this, just go get 5 [B] Sabers. Use Megi-Photons or whatever you want in them, take the first one out immediately, second an hour later, third 6 hours later, fourth half a day later, then the last one a day later...or something like that. Even then, it could just be coincidental or dumb luck...would be a pretty neat thing to find out though, but I wouldn't count on it being true.

Fulgore
May 16, 2007, 08:45 PM
On 2007-05-16 18:30, Umberger wrote:
If you really want to test this, just go get 5 [B] Sabers. Use Megi-Photons or whatever you want in them, take the first one out immediately, second an hour later, third 6 hours later, fourth half a day later, then the last one a day later...or something like that. Even then, it could just be coincidental or dumb luck...would be a pretty neat thing to find out though, but I wouldn't count on it being true.



I thought about doing that as well...and it may work somewhat to find out percentages (photon percentages) however for rare items.....the ones you only get so many of each day "per se" it would be more difficult to test....because the fact is that their is probably a TON of Sabers released or able to be released each day versus say a Hiragi-Senba or an S Rank Weapon...

..So...what I'm basically thinking, is with an S rank weapon for example...their are only so many available to be had per day "if" someone actually tries to synth one.....and that once that quota is filled anyone else who tries will fail for the day, regardless of %'s.....and that percents really affect the "order" in which someone gets those items.....

I don't know, I think I'm onto something there but it's still messed up http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_frown.gif

EDIT: So, lets say 2 people try to synth a Uransara S rank wand...and one has a pure tech pm and the other an impure one....So the pure tech pm will take the cake and get the wand.....but on a day where only 1 person tries to synth the wand even with an "impure" pm they will get it because they have no competetion for the item so they don't get "bumped" down the list....they ARE the list...am I starting to make sense with this whole thing?



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Fulgore on 2007-05-16 18:47 ]</font>

Golto
May 16, 2007, 08:58 PM
Well I don't know about this theory but I had two friends synth a Sweet Death on pure pms around the same time 1 failed, 1 succeeded.

Umberger
May 16, 2007, 09:00 PM
Fulgore, I was just talking about weapon element %s (first mentioned by Micro) in relation to time...not the x amount of people get y weapon during any given day. =|

Fulgore
May 16, 2007, 09:04 PM
On 2007-05-16 19:00, Umberger wrote:
Fulgore, I was just talking about weapon element %s (first mentioned by Micro) in relation to time...not the x amount of people get y weapon during any given day. =|



Woah....didn't mean to offend with what I said.....I guess I was misunderstood

I get what you are saying.....I just was thinking of the whole picture I guess...sorry http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_smile.gif

Fulgore
May 16, 2007, 09:05 PM
On 2007-05-16 19:00, Umberger wrote:
Fulgore, I was just talking about weapon element %s (first mentioned by Micro) in relation to time...not the x amount of people get y weapon during any given day. =|



well...that being said.....maybe if 2 people know each other are going to try and synth a Sweet Death in the future one should wait till after the other maybe?....Either that or if they Do both try to synth and it comes out one success/one fail then I truely think we are onto something...

EDIT: Granted, it is highly likely others were attempting to synth one as well...so not necessarily it being only 1 weapon available per day but all we know of is that 2 were tried in 1 day



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Fulgore on 2007-05-16 19:06 ]</font>

Africa
May 16, 2007, 09:13 PM
I doubt that they would have a system devised to work that way with synths. I mean evryone probably knows someone who failed a one shot board on a pure p.m. and someone with almost no chance who succeeded. It's probably a very random dice roll done when you go to synth something.

VanHalen
May 16, 2007, 09:19 PM
I for awhile believed that if you wait an hour after the synth time it would increase the chance of success ._.

Fulgore
May 16, 2007, 09:20 PM
well this all started my thinking from personal experience and my personal experience was that after getting off work in the early morning I seemed to always have successful synths and I started the synths around noon time or before noon...so basically most of them were done well before they got pulled out for one, and also fairly recent after the daily reset....so it just got me to thinking is all...

Africa
May 16, 2007, 09:27 PM
o.k. I see where this is kinda going. I have to say that doesn't matter at all then. My backing is purely based off the fact that i synthed 2 degahna cannons at once. my point being they both succeeded and eere started within seconds of each other. IT has a similar success rating to Srank and was very rare at the time. Iwon't say what happened to them tho.

Mayu
May 16, 2007, 09:39 PM
It's luck -.-// Basically a yes or no

- - You synth 32 weapons

1: yes - 25262w6w636 30%
2: Yes - 2q4q5q52524 10%
3: No - Monomate
4: Yes - 3552365 44%
5: No - Scape doll
6: Yes 15353535 10%
and on and on

If you're synthing 32 weapons then that means you're going to get about 15+ or maybe lower http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/anime1.gif

Just luck and such

Synthing/taking it out is the same thing

Yes or no http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/anime1.gif

- - you take out Caliburn

253653653 NOO TOO BAD IT FAILS <3
245q5q52 Yes it got made gj http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/anime1.gif





<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Ryuugu-Rena on 2007-05-16 19:41 ]</font>