Anyone still doubt luck affects rare maps?

[SolomonGrundy]

I have to say, this weekends speed running of Parum Firebreak certainly confirms one thing in my mind: Luck affects the appearance of rare enemy maps.

While the luck was 3*, the part I was in would get the 'good' map in B1 perhaps 3 out of 5 tries.
In B2 we would get the vulfu (the second part of the 'good' map), perhaps 1 in 2 or 1 in 3 tries.
Jaggos would spawn 50%, or maybe 33% of the time from there.

When luck changed over we hunted for a few more hours, with 1* luck. Now we found good B1 maps perhaps 1 in 5 or less.
Good B2 maps were even less common.
After a few jarba spawns in B3 people lsot patience and ut party size dwindled, until we were whittled below 4, and that was that (about 2:30AM).

While not conclusive, such statistical evidence cannot be ignored.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: SolomonGrundy on 2007-06-11 14:02 ]</font>

[natewifi]

I had 0 luck and got jaggos twice in a row on friday, I cant exactly say luck doesnt effect spawns, but im beginning to doubt that it does.

[akratic]

I think you're confusing "statistical" and "anecdotal".

I had 3 star luck and had a terrible time getting jaggos. Had better luck with 2 star, and today with no stars I was 2 for 3.

Without a framework of number of runs total on the servers, you can't really draw sound conclusions from your limited experiences.

[Tekershee]

Do 500,000 more runs and we'll see.

[SolomonGrundy]

On 2007-06-11 14:09, akratic wrote:
I think you're confusing "statistical" and "anecdotal".

I had 3 star luck and had a terrible time getting jaggos. Had better luck with 2 star, and today with no stars I was 2 for 3.

Without a framework of number of runs total on the servers, you can't really draw sound conclusions from your limited experiences.



no, I belive you are confusing them.
I played for 20 hours on Saturday and Sunday, on B runs with the express purpose of finding jagos. SO the first set of number contains the data for perhaps 10 spawns of Jagos, and literally hundred of maps.

The second set of data, though only 2.5 hours in duration, contained a LARGE NUMBER (ie, statistically significant) of restarts in B1.

The great thing about statistics, and standard deviation, is that it is very predictable when the root likelihood is high. In laymans terms, that means it is much easier to test a 25% appearance rate, then it is 5% appearance rate. And by easier I mean less data points are required before you can make accuracte (as in 99.73% correct) statements. It's called 3 sigma. Read more here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Control_chart

EDIT: wikipedia does it better




<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: SolomonGrundy on 2007-06-11 14:19 ]</font>

[Deus-Irae]

On 2007-06-11 14:18, SolomonGrundy wrote:

no, I belive you are confusing them.



no he's got it right.

[Ravennittes]

1: The jaggo map ISN'T a rare map.

2: It's a regular map, and therefor a 1/3 chance of appearing.

3: Think a lil first.

[ssl118]

I think it seems like rare map occurs much more frequently for Urgent Orders. Period. I have never had luck with rare spawns and have put a lot of time on this game, but I got Jaggo Sonichi on my very first run and with 0 luck. Another point on luck...I've had 2 [B] Gudda Skela drop in my 0 luck games. So lately I'm not caring too much about the luck.

[drizzle]

On 2007-06-11 14:22, Ravennittes wrote:
2: It's a regular map, and therefor a 1/3 chance of appearing.


I am fairly sure that even regular maps have different appearance rates.

[Ravennittes]

On 2007-06-11 14:27, ssl118 wrote:
I think it seems like rare map occurs much more frequently for Urgent Orders. Period. I have never had luck with rare spawns and have put a lot of time on this game, but I got Jaggo Sonichi on my very first run and with 0 luck. Another point on luck...I've had 2 [B] Gudda Skela drop in my 0 luck games. So lately I'm not caring too much about the luck.



Please get this through your head: The Jaggo spawn on Urgent Orders is NOT a rare sawn and is infact 1/3 chance.

[KiteWolfwood]

Its been the opposite for me. I got 5 jao in a row. Then we got a leader with 3* star luck and then the whole rest of the day I never seen a jao.

[Rashiid]

i dont believe it.

[akratic]

On 2007-06-11 14:35, KiteWolfwood wrote:
Its been the opposite for me. I got 5 jao in a row. Then we got a leader with 3* star luck and then the whole rest of the day I never seen a jao.

I'm sorry, but there are some stories and a wikipedia link that tell me you must be lying.

[Almighty_Envy]

3 star luck- 2 jaggo spawns

2 star luck- 8 jaggo spawns

1 star luck- 4 jaggo spawns

No luck- 1 spawn

EDIT: forgot no luck, all of my figures have been based off of since friday.

Forget a week of 3 star luck, i want a week of 2



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Almighty_Envy on 2007-06-11 14:42 ]</font>

[JAFO22000]

On 2007-06-11 14:18, SolomonGrundy wrote:

On 2007-06-11 14:09, akratic wrote:
I think you're confusing "statistical" and "anecdotal".

I had 3 star luck and had a terrible time getting jaggos. Had better luck with 2 star, and today with no stars I was 2 for 3.

Without a framework of number of runs total on the servers, you can't really draw sound conclusions from your limited experiences.



no, I belive you are confusing them.
I played for 20 hours on Saturday and Sunday, on B runs with the express purpose of finding jagos. SO the first set of number contains the data for perhaps 10 spawns of Jagos, and literally hundred of maps.

The second set of data, though only 2.5 hours in duration, contained a LARGE NUMBER (ie, statistically significant) of restarts in B1.

The great thing about statistics, and standard deviation, is that it is very predictable when the root likelihood is high. In laymans terms, that means it is much easier to test a 25% appearance rate, then it is 5% appearance rate. And by easier I mean less data points are required before you can make accuracte (as in 99.73% correct) statements. It's called 3 sigma. Read more here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Control_chart

EDIT: wikipedia does it better




<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: SolomonGrundy on 2007-06-11 14:19 ]</font>


Oh great, a wikipedia reader....

Solomon, your sample size is too small and limited to make any concrete conclusions. Even though you tested out in parties you were in over the weekend and found it to be true that when the leader had more luck then more rare spawns occurred, this CANNOT be assumed for the rest of the 360 server AND the PC/PS2 server. Again, your sample size is too small and limited. How do you know that you just happen to get lucky when the leader had 3* luck, then ran into a bad streak when he left? Could be coincidental, you know....




<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: JAFO22000 on 2007-06-11 14:50 ]</font>

[SolomonGrundy]

On 2007-06-11 14:22, Deus-Irae wrote:

On 2007-06-11 14:18, SolomonGrundy wrote:

no, I belive you are confusing them.



no he's got it right.



no Deus, he does not. Gather info regarding N restarts in B1. It does not matter what "n" is, as long as that number is high. (and high is determined by the root rate).

For example. Let's say you hypothesize, that there is a 50% chance of a coin be flipped to "heads." It is easy to get data on this, with a small number of flips. Let's SAY you flip it 100 times or 1000. It does not really matter if you get 53%, 49%, or exactly 50%. What matters is being able to say: I'm 99.73% sure that the base chance for a coin landing on heads is 50%.

Now, my original example did not give raw number data, nor did I precisely record the number of runs. Fortunaltely, I DO know some thing. Like it takes 1:30 minutes to check B1, and 10 minutes to check B2, and I also know the total number of jaggos found, within 3. I also know (again, in general), how long I played with 3 star luck: 20 hours.

taking that data, I might hypothesize the following:
Jaggo appearance is 50%, with 3* luck.

Now applying my data collected (which was a 40% restart rate in B1), this data comprises of ~320 restarts in B1 during the 20 hours. Keep in mind, this is JUST the number of restarts in B1, there are restarts in B2 as well.
With only 300 tests of B1, I can say within 2 sigma certainty (95% likely), that the rate of Jaggo appearance is NOT 50% on a 3* luck day.

Now, does that sound Anecdotal to you? http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_wink.gif

by the way, you can never say FOR SURE. Even with double, or 10x the amount of data I have. All you can say is that it is LIKELY. And given my sample size (whihc I've detailed some of above), I feel satisfied that luck affects 'rare' map spawns.




<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: SolomonGrundy on 2007-06-11 15:03 ]</font>


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: SolomonGrundy on 2007-06-11 15:05 ]</font>

[KiteWolfwood]

On 2007-06-11 14:39, akratic wrote:

On 2007-06-11 14:35, KiteWolfwood wrote:
Its been the opposite for me. I got 5 jao in a row. Then we got a leader with 3* star luck and then the whole rest of the day I never seen a jao.

I'm sorry, but there are some stories and a wikipedia link that tell me you must be lying.


Oh wow stories and wikipedia must be right then! I must be lying then! I am so sorry your majesty. Please forgive me.

Seriously I didn't think some people could be this stupid. I never once said that it was right or wrong. I just typed what my experiences were.

You know what I was just going to leave it at that but I am just amazed at your amount of stupidity. Telling me that I must be lying. Maybe if I said something along the lines of Luck does/doesn't effect it then you would have the right to argue against/for it. But I just stated my experiences. I might as well just say I read some stories and wikipedia articles that say your mother is a whore so it must be right then huh.

But I am not going to stoop to that level. Good day.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: KiteWolfwood on 2007-06-11 15:15 ]</font>

[SolomonGrundy]

On 2007-06-11 15:08, KiteWolfwood wrote:

On 2007-06-11 14:39, akratic wrote:

On 2007-06-11 14:35, KiteWolfwood wrote:
Its been the opposite for me. I got 5 jao in a row. Then we got a leader with 3* star luck and then the whole rest of the day I never seen a jao.

I'm sorry, but there are some stories and a wikipedia link that tell me you must be lying.


Oh wow stories and wikipedia must be right then! I must be lying then! I am so sorry your majesty. Please forgive me.

Seriously I didn't think some people could be this stupid. I never once said that it was right or wrong. I just typed what my experiences were.



akratic was being sarcasitic. His jibe was directed my way.

By the way, if the jaggo map is not rare, and really is 1 in 3. The chance of getting jaggos 5 TIMES IN A ROW is 1/243 or a .4% chance.

[JAFO22000]

On 2007-06-11 15:08, KiteWolfwood wrote:

On 2007-06-11 14:39, akratic wrote:

On 2007-06-11 14:35, KiteWolfwood wrote:
Its been the opposite for me. I got 5 jao in a row. Then we got a leader with 3* star luck and then the whole rest of the day I never seen a jao.

I'm sorry, but there are some stories and a wikipedia link that tell me you must be lying.


Oh wow stories and wikipedia must be right then! I must be lying then! I am so sorry your majesty. Please forgive me.

Seriously I didn't think some people could be this stupid. I never once said that it was right or wrong. I just typed what my experiences were.



akratic's reply TOTALLY went over your head.....it was a jab at Solomon, not at you.

[Tykwa]

We did about 30 runs.

first we had 2* luck had the first maybe 4/10 ( four in a row )
luck changed to 0* 0/4
new lead 1* 5/16

well. I didn't have fun no aura, no claws ( althoug hi saw about i think 4 auras and 5 claws drop in total)
but I did get about 8 jao's

[Ravennittes]

On 2007-06-11 15:28, Tykwa wrote:
We did about 30 runs.

first we had 2* luck had the first maybe 4/10 ( four in a row )
luck changed to 0* 0/4
new lead 1* 5/16

well. I didn't have fun no aura, no claws ( althoug hi saw about i think 4 auras and 5 claws drop in total)
but I did get about 8 jao's



What are those figures approx? Oh, that's right, about 1/3! 5/16 is close to 5/15, and 4/10 is close to 3/10. IT'S NOT A RARE MAP!

[ljkkjlcm9]

On 2007-06-11 15:37, Ravennittes wrote:

On 2007-06-11 15:28, Tykwa wrote:
We did about 30 runs.

first we had 2* luck had the first maybe 4/10 ( four in a row )
luck changed to 0* 0/4
new lead 1* 5/16

well. I didn't have fun no aura, no claws ( althoug hi saw about i think 4 auras and 5 claws drop in total)
but I did get about 8 jao's



What are those figures approx? Oh, that's right, about 1/3! 5/16 is close to 5/15, and 4/10 is close to 3/10. IT'S NOT A RARE MAP!


maybe so, but I think there are more than 3 maps
I've had the seed pod in the right spot and gotten the Jisha, seed pod in the right spot and gotten volfu then jarba, and seed pod in the right spot and gotten volfu then jaggo.
That's not even counting the seed pod being in the wrong spot. There's probably another 3 maps that way, but everyone restarts when it's not in the right spot. So that makes it seem like 1/3.

THE JACKEL

[akratic]

On 2007-06-11 15:11, SolomonGrundy wrote:
By the way, if the jaggo map is not rare, and really is 1 in 3. The chance of getting jaggos 5 TIMES IN A ROW is 1/243 or a .4% chance.

And if you get jaggos the first time, your chances of getting them on the second time is 1 in 3. And if you get jaggos the second time, your chances of getting them the third time is 1 in 3, and so on. Previous instances have no causal connection here to future instances.

At any rate, you have decided that your sample size is enough. I disagree. Just don't pretend that this is a trivial element to your "finding".

[Arika]

lol lol lol
You see jao often just because it is that FB mission
if you go to other map, you will know that lv 3 luck is useless on hunter rare enemy.

[Helly]

I'm not saying anyone is right or wrong, usually the best rares occur with 0 luck from what I've seen, but today I haven't seen a single Jaggo map and only 1 Jarba map. http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_frown.gif

Anyone know the percentage of chance you have at ending up in the firey pit of death on B3 of the non-Jarba/Jaggo map? ^_^;

[Ravennittes]

About 1/3 http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_razz.gif.

[Ffuzzy-Logik]

Wait, people still think Photon Fortune affects anything other than grinders and DAR?

lawlz

[FUFME]

I say it's BS. Not that the OP is BS'ing, it's just that Jagos have a higher chance of spawing on those Parum maps.

I want the user to try VoC or Defense map on Moatoob and see if he gets anything close to the same amount of Jago spawns.... It wont happen.

[Rashiid]

sumone remind me what a rappy looks like.....

[DAMASCUS]

Not to mention of course that these are Sonic Anniversary Jaggos which are only around for a limited time so of course they are NOT RARE. On the other hand real rare maps do at least require more than zero luck.

[Akaimizu]

On 2007-06-11 14:02, SolomonGrundy wrote:
I have to say, this weekends speed running of Parum Firebreak certainly confirms one thing in my mind: Luck affects the appearance of rare enemy maps.

While the luck was 3*, the part I was in would get the 'good' map in B1 perhaps 3 out of 5 tries.
In B2 we would get the vulfu (the second part of the 'good' map), perhaps 1 in 2 or 1 in 3 tries.
Jaggos would spawn 50%, or maybe 33% of the time from there.

When luck changed over we hunted for a few more hours, with 1* luck. Now we found good B1 maps perhaps 1 in 5 or less.
Good B2 maps were even less common.
After a few jarba spawns in B3 people lsot patience and ut party size dwindled, until we were whittled below 4, and that was that (about 2:30AM).

While not conclusive, such statistical evidence cannot be ignored.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: SolomonGrundy on 2007-06-11 14:02 ]</font>


Too bad, my real-life experience of this game, destroyes these statistics. I guess these statistics don't work for everybody. RL luck beats the electronic luck, in this game, everytime.

[XanGabriel]

Uhm I was in a PT earlier. With this someone Selenia... yeah... highest luck in PT was me with one, we had Jaggos 75% of the time. If not more. Jaos, Meow Mustaches, Puyos, the whole lot on B runs. No lie. At all. Perhaps Selenia is on here and will testify to this.

[Sekani]

Akaimizu, the appearance rate of Jaggos on Urgent Orders is so high that even you could encounter multiple spawns in a day. Or, at the rate you play, at least once this week.

Anecdotally speaking, I'd say there's about a 1 in 4 chance of getting a Jaggo map.

[Akaimizu]

That I know of. But I was more or less talking about game luck compared to RL luck. As you say, Urgent Orders has Jaggos up the wazzoo. Though because they're special Jaggos, the possible drops are different. I even get them often enough, on that map. Then again, Jaggos had a higher spawn percentage on Crimson Beast than they had before, as well. Urgent Orders kicks it up even higher.

My point was more on the whole luck thing. Urgent Orders really doesn't need any to catch a bunch of rare spawns.

[fumatanera]

On 2007-06-11 14:59, SolomonGrundy wrote:

On 2007-06-11 14:22, Deus-Irae wrote:

On 2007-06-11 14:18, SolomonGrundy wrote:

no, I belive you are confusing them.



no he's got it right.



no Deus, he does not. Gather info regarding N restarts in B1. It does not matter what "n" is, as long as that number is high. (and high is determined by the root rate).

For example. Let's say you hypothesize, that there is a 50% chance of a coin be flipped to "heads." It is easy to get data on this, with a small number of flips. Let's SAY you flip it 100 times or 1000. It does not really matter if you get 53%, 49%, or exactly 50%. What matters is being able to say: I'm 99.73% sure that the base chance for a coin landing on heads is 50%.

Now, my original example did not give raw number data, nor did I precisely record the number of runs. Fortunaltely, I DO know some thing. Like it takes 1:30 minutes to check B1, and 10 minutes to check B2, and I also know the total number of jaggos found, within 3. I also know (again, in general), how long I played with 3 star luck: 20 hours.

taking that data, I might hypothesize the following:
Jaggo appearance is 50%, with 3* luck.

Now applying my data collected (which was a 40% restart rate in B1), this data comprises of ~320 restarts in B1 during the 20 hours. Keep in mind, this is JUST the number of restarts in B1, there are restarts in B2 as well.
With only 300 tests of B1, I can say within 2 sigma certainty (95% likely), that the rate of Jaggo appearance is NOT 50% on a 3* luck day.

Now, does that sound Anecdotal to you? http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_wink.gif

by the way, you can never say FOR SURE. Even with double, or 10x the amount of data I have. All you can say is that it is LIKELY. And given my sample size (whihc I've detailed some of above), I feel satisfied that luck affects 'rare' map spawns.




<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: SolomonGrundy on 2007-06-11 15:03 ]</font>


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: SolomonGrundy on 2007-06-11 15:05 ]</font>


it is still anecdotal. you are the only test subject. you cannot analize an entire server from one player. if you had 5 people doing the exact same runs at the exact same tme with the exact same luck, then you might have something. but alas, you are an *

[pikachief]

of course luck does affect enemies spawns....

i had gold luck and we did at least 20 runs and got the black room every time but we also got jarbas every time. And i did, half way through, switch the leader to another person with gold luck and we still got nothing.

oh but someone with no luck got it for 1 run and we got jaos that one run http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif

also after those 20 or so runs i went on my alt with 1 star and did 2 B rank missions, first saw kitty claws drop, second mission we see jaos again and i see puyoment aura drop(which i didn't get because it was give finder and the guy with the kitty claws was waiting for me to kill the jao http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_frown.gif )



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: pikachief on 2007-06-12 09:39 ]</font>

[amtalx]

The problem with luck is that it can't be quantified with test data. Take for example the fact that I just dropped a coin on my desk 8 times (I wanted to go to ten but I got bored http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_smile.gif ). Heads came up 6 times. Does that mean there is a 75% change of getting heads? No. It just means that my current data set is contradictory to what we know to be true. You are always going to have real world data that contradicts the actual probability. It's called probability and not certainty for a reason. That being said, all this arguing means jack. Unless someone wants to break in to ST's office and steal the source, we will probably never have a real answer to any of these questions. If you happen to get lucky on 3* days, good for you. If you don't, find a friend that is. http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif

[Ryoki]

The realm of luck is a mysterious one indeed. The whole point and basis of luck is that it is random. Therefore, everyone's experience may be different from your own. Unless you have the coding in front of you, there is not definate way to tell.

I posted this without reading the last post. Damnit, I failed. http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_nono.gif

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Ryoki on 2007-06-12 10:10 ]</font>

[Deus-Irae]

On 2007-06-11 14:59, SolomonGrundy wrote:


Now, my original example did not give raw number data, nor did I precisely record the number of runs.

-

Now, does that sound Anecdotal to you? http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_wink.gif


yes.

i havent seen any evidence to suggest that luck has any affect on rare map spawns (and ive had plenty of experience in hunting rare maps).

personally, i do not believe that luck has any affect on rare maps.

and as people here have already mentioned this is a special case. there is a very good chance that you will get a jaggo to spawn in this mission. i was in a party yesterday that had 3 rare maps in a row on 0 luck.

[Ryoki]

You know what effects my luck? My 22 four leaved clovers, 2 five leafs, and my treasured 6 leaf clover. Beat that.

^( I actually do own these. Aren't that hard to find, if you know where to look.)

**Pesticide-laden areas like parks and public areas.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Ryoki on 2007-06-12 10:14 ]</font>

[SolomonGrundy]

On 2007-06-12 09:34, fumatanera wrote:

it is still anecdotal. you are the only test subject. you cannot analize an entire server from one player. if you had 5 people doing the exact same runs at the exact same tme with the exact same luck, then you might have something. but alas, you are an *





since when do you need multiple test subjects to collect data points? All you have to do is control your variables. it CAN be difficult to have a controlled environment, since one is not always aware things that could be affecting your tests.

Also, ad hominem attacks do not add to the discussion at all. If you disagree with me, that's cool. State your point (which you did), and let your post speak for itself.

Oh - and by the way, my original post never says definitive, nor mentions the rarity of any other 'rare' enemy. It's ONLY contends that luck effects enemy spawns, however rare they might be.



To the coin flipper. it takes more than 8 tests to verify that heads/tails is 50%. Over 300 to confirm with 95% certainty. http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_smile.gif

[fumatanera]

On 2007-06-12 11:00, SolomonGrundy wrote:

On 2007-06-12 09:34, fumatanera wrote:

it is still anecdotal. you are the only test subject. you cannot analize an entire server from one player. if you had 5 people doing the exact same runs at the exact same tme with the exact same luck, then you might have something. but alas, you are an *





since when do you need multiple test subjects to collect data points? All you have to do is control your variables. it CAN be difficult to have a controlled environment, since one is not always aware things that could be affecting your tests.

Also, ad hominem attacks do not add to the discussion at all. If you disagree with me, that's cool. State your point (which you did), and let your post speak for itself.

Oh - and by the way, my original post never says definitive, nor mentions the rarity of any other 'rare' enemy. It's ONLY contends that luck effects enemy spawns, however rare they might be.



To the coin flipper. it takes more than 8 tests to verify that heads/tails is 50%. Over 300 to confirm with 95% certainty. http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_smile.gif




that's the point. you cannot control your variables. the constant is that they are unknown. you can collect all the data points you want, but you need other test subjects to confirm your data. you can prove anything with statistics, 14% of all people know that (thank you simpsons). i know you were stating a theory of yours, but the tone of your responses indicated that you felt this was certain, which we have give ou reasons that it is not so.

[SolomonGrundy]

On 2007-06-12 14:34, fumatanera wrote:

that's the point. you cannot control your variables. the constant is that they are unknown. you can collect all the data points you want, but you need other test subjects to confirm your data. you can prove anything with statistics, 14% of all people know that (thank you simpsons). i know you were stating a theory of yours, but the tone of your responses indicated that you felt this was certain, which we have give ou reasons that it is not so.



While not conclusive, such statistical evidence cannot be ignored.

what does 'while not conclusive" mean to you? My tone is with those who feel I don't understand how to conduct an experiment, or who don't understand the definition of Anecdotal (included below). I have bolded the relevant parts for those who are A.D.D.


"Anecdotal evidence is an informal account of evidence in the form of an anecdote or hearsay. The term is often used in contrast to scientific evidence, such as evidence-based medicine, which are types of formal accounts. Anecdotal evidence is often unscientific because it cannot be investigated using the scientific method. Misuse of anecdotal evidence is a logical fallacy and is sometimes informally referred to as the "person who" fallacy ("I know a person who..."; "I know of a case where..." etc. Compare with hasty generalization). Anecdotal evidence is not necessarily typical; statistical evidence can more accurately determine how typical something is."


Let's take a look at the definition of statistical evidence (statistical hypothesis testing). The definition is a bit too long to post, so I'll give folks the link, and they can make thier own decisions:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothesis_testing

It's imporant to not that nowhere in the description does it state that you need more than one person to collect data.
Now, here is where *I* would typically make some personal attacks, since I have been under them from the get-go, instead I'll say this:

If anyone can post a formula, or provide a link that definitively disproves my first post, I'll be happy to admit I am wrong. Such a post might include a link to a formula that says ~300-350 tests is not enough to validate a 50% or 33% chance of rare appearance, or a link that specifies that no ONE person is objective enough to both collect data, and analyse it.

until then, I suggest you take my original post for what it is. Someone who took the time to collect some data, and found a correlation between luck, and 'rare' enemy appearance.





<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: SolomonGrundy on 2007-06-12 15:29 ]</font>

[amtalx]

On 2007-06-12 11:00, SolomonGrundy wrote:

To the coin flipper. it takes more than 8 tests to verify that heads/tails is 50%. Over 300 to confirm with 95% certainty. http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_smile.gif



Oh and I suppose if I flip a coin 300 times theres absolutely NO chance it will come up heads 225 times? Thats unpossible!! The reason we know that heads coming up on a coin is 50% because we can quantify all the possibilities, and all of the variables are known. NOT because it was based of of case data. This is not the case with luck or photon fortune or whatever you want to call it. We have absolutely no clue what the variables are. Time? Number of party members? Character name? Unless ST decides to show us the light, everything in this topic is guesswork as best.

[Sekani]

The Jaggo spawns in Urgent Orders are not rare. This more or less invalidates your entire experiment.

If you want to give us something that we won't ignore, go Jaggo hunting on Crimson Beast or Valley of Carnage and get back to us.

P.S.: We all know that you didn't run that map 300-350 times in one day.

[Dj_SkyEpic]

Yesterday's find of Two Twin Bear Claw boards was with the use of 0 luck.

I really don't know the rate that luck effects on rares, but man. That was some luck...