Theory on how often S-ranks drop [Archive]

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Jet1337

Jul 4, 2007, 06:56 PM

I believe that there is a universal system that applies to every universe (server) in the game. I'll explain:

Let's say that a Bil de Axe board drops once every 250 times from a Bil de Vear. Let's also say that the axe will drop on the 200th Bil de Vear.

So here you are in Universe 2 or whichever Universe you're in. You've played Desert Terror S2 for over a hundred runs and haven't seen any S rank boards at all. Now someone from Universe 1 or wherever gets the 200th kill and the board drops.

The engine then cycles through 1 to 250 and randomly picks a number; let's say 179. So on the 179th kill, the board will drop again.

There's also the problem of very few Bil de Vears spawning on a map variation. Some maps don't even have them spawning at all (I think). And same with Drua Gohras.

That could explain why there are so few Bil de Axe and Gur Bazga boards anywhere. And that could also explain why a lot of people have never seen an S rank board drop at all.

What do you think?

That could explain why a lot of people have never seen a board drop at all.

Gryffin

Jul 4, 2007, 06:58 PM

Maybe O.O

Then again, I'm slow and have difficulties understanding so I like to agree to feel smart http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif

HFlowen

Jul 4, 2007, 07:02 PM

I thought it was a 1/X ratio.

Like, 1/2000 chance of dropping. So the computer randomises 2000 variables, one of which would be said S rank board.

If i was gonna make a rare system, i'd probably just do it like that, less hassel.

EDIT: Why not get someone to decompile the PC version? It's probably in the program somewhere.

[ This Message was edited by: HFlowen on 2007-07-04 17:03 ]

Gryffin

Jul 4, 2007, 07:04 PM

HFlowen

Jul 4, 2007, 07:06 PM

^Precisely.

Sekani

Jul 4, 2007, 07:26 PM

My theory is that the game randomly decides that it hates certain people, and then rigs the random drop system to ensure that they never see an S-rank board as long as they live.

If you're one of those people, might as well cancel your PSU account, cause you're screwed.

TUSCAN

Jul 4, 2007, 07:29 PM

I always thought of it as some old granny spinning the wheel for the showcase showdown every time you kill an enemy or open a boss box. I dunno about you, but I know I've only seen a few ladies get a dollar in all my years of watching price, so I'm not getting too worked up about it.

the pleasure is to play, besides, I'm a protranser.

TUSCAN

Jul 4, 2007, 07:34 PM

oooops, double post. had a feeling that was gonna happen

[ This Message was edited by: TUSCAN on 2007-07-04 17:35 ]

Neith

Jul 4, 2007, 08:51 PM

If it's anything at all like PSO, imagine it as a dice, with hundreds (or thousands even) of sides.

Everytime you kill the monster, you effectively roll the dice. Getting a certain result would yield a rare drop, every other value would be something else.

Another way to think of it is picking marbles out of a box. Thinking again of PSO, say you're hunting a Sealed J-Sword (1/12,603). IN your box you have 12,602 black marbles, and 1 red. The 1 red is the J-Sword. Every time you killed a Gi Gue, you pick a marble at random from the box. If it's a black one, screw you. If it's the red, a J-Sword drops. What should be noted is that after each kill, you put the marble back in the box- the rate does not accumulate over time.

I honestly have no idea if PSU's drop system works in even a remotely similar way, but my guess is that it does.

Kion

Jul 4, 2007, 09:09 PM

On 2007-07-04 17:02, HFlowen wrote:
I thought it was a 1/X ratio.

Like, 1/2000 chance of dropping. So the computer randomises 2000 variables, one of which would be said S rank board.

I think so too. Except first it has a boolean on weather it will drop anything at all before calculating which item drops. So it maybe 1/Y for any item to drop in the first place times 1/X for the board to drop. So the chances of anything dropping isn't just 1/X; it's 1/XY

If luck makes drop rates increase, then 1/Y will be closer to one on a day with photon forture effectively making the chances of a rare dropping higher.

[ This Message was edited by: Kion on 2007-07-04 19:12 ]

SuperChoco

Jul 4, 2007, 09:24 PM

I think of rares as if you find it, you find it. If you don't, you don't. That's how life works.

Niered

Jul 4, 2007, 09:31 PM

This is getting about as out of hand as that stupid beat time rare drop system in PSO. No. A game programmer is not going make the game check the server EVERY time an enemy is killed to see how many of these enemies have been killed recently, when its MUCH eaiser to simply pull a random number system code.

Please realize that its very simple, and not NEARLY as complex as everyone would like to theorize. I have only ever seen one S rank drop, but just because I have 675 hours logged and thats all Ive seen doesnt mean that I go around making theories that simply dont exist.

Davot

Jul 4, 2007, 10:23 PM

O.o can you tell me what the drop rate on a Daga Cresa is?!?!?i find them very often ive gotten 5 so far! off of monsters that seeing any board is like a thank you God and Jesus moment and then you see 7* not and some cussing starts,especially when your soloing a run.its a swift kick to the groin,by somebody who knows where the kicking spot is!

Almighty_Envy

Jul 5, 2007, 12:29 AM

I thought it was a 1/X ratio.

Like, 1/2000 chance of dropping. So the computer randomises 2000 variables, one of which would be said S rank board.

If i was gonna make a rare system, i'd probably just do it like that, less hassel.

Good Flowen http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/anime1.gif

- Hes right, thats how almost all random drops are done., However something reminiscent of your theory was brought up awhile ago.
I remeber hearing something about a pre-set # of Boards that can drop per day/week/month/hour/every time frame ive not listed. ( Probably Week i think it was...)

But im still sticking with Flowen on this one.

My theory is that the game randomly decides that it hates certain people, and then rigs the random drop system to ensure that they never see an S-rank board as long as they live.

If you're one of those people, might as well cancel your PSU account, cause you're screwed.

That actually seems plausable to. Alot of the more well-known people on psu seem to have better items than others. Excluding known hackers/glitchers ( Im looking at you bearclaw board collecters http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_mad.gif).

Ryoki

Jul 5, 2007, 12:33 AM

It's just like PSO.
No exceptions.
You don't change a random change generator, it's pointless.

pikachief

Jul 5, 2007, 04:20 AM

ThEoRy

Jul 5, 2007, 10:09 AM

eightball

Jul 5, 2007, 12:56 PM

can i just say how depressing it was yesterday playing rainbow beast s2 and a red board dropped from an olgohmon i run over as fast as i can...and its a stupid twin crea saber

Jet1337

Jul 5, 2007, 12:59 PM

There you go! Crea weapons for everyone!!!

Akaimizu

Jul 5, 2007, 01:01 PM

60Hz

Jul 5, 2007, 01:16 PM

Treasure tables, with drop rates is how it's been done in rune-likes since time eternal... Now whether the universe effects the chances is up for grabs.

I have played in one universe (say 15) and played one mission 10 times (say deragan) and got no red drops whatsoever, then switch uni's (to 2) and played the same mission 10 times and got perhaps 4x's as many red drops. Now this is still not conclusive proof that one uni is better than another, it could be pure luck... But it hurts my head to try to find the lucky universe of the day so i just play in whatever universe i happen to be in or get called to... lol

Jul 5, 2007, 01:17 PM

i just beat the enemies over and over until they drop the board. http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_smile.gif
How often they drop, I dont really care. http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_bunny.gif

Ffuzzy-Logik

Jul 5, 2007, 01:35 PM

On 2007-07-04 19:09, Kion wrote:

On 2007-07-04 17:02, HFlowen wrote:
I thought it was a 1/X ratio.

Like, 1/2000 chance of dropping. So the computer randomises 2000 variables, one of which would be said S rank board.

I think so too. Except first it has a boolean on weather it will drop anything at all before calculating which item drops. So it maybe 1/Y for any item to drop in the first place times 1/X for the board to drop. So the chances of anything dropping isn't just 1/X; it's 1/XY

If luck makes drop rates increase, then 1/Y will be closer to one on a day with photon forture effectively making the chances of a rare dropping higher.
That is precisely how it worked in PSO, and there is no reason whatsoever to believe it works otherwise on PSU.

For those who don't quite understand, here's the step-by-step process:

1. Kill enemy.
2. Consideration for DAR (Drop Anything Rate). For the sake of argument, let's say the DAR is usually 1/Y. With increasing Photon Fortune, it is 2/Y, 3/Y, or 4/Y. Let's say we have no Photon Fortune, and Y=5. The game randomly generates a number between 1 and 5, and if it happens to be the one "target" number, the monster drops an item (proceed to step 3). If it picks some other number, the monster drops nothing.
3. Consideration for the rare drop rate. Let's say we're killing Level 100 Olgohmons, and the Uransara drop rate is 1/5000 (I do not know the real number). The game then randomly chooses a number between 1 and 5000 (with each number being assigned a specific item, only one of which is Uransara board). If it happens to pick which number is the Uransara board, the rare drops. It it picks something else, whatever item is assigned that number drops.

So, if PF is the Photon Fortune factor (between 0 and 3 inclusive), Y is the DAR factor, and X is the rare drop rate factor, the overall drop formula probably looks something like this:

(1+PF)/(XY)

However, that's a bit misleading, since the DAR consideration must succeed before the rare drop rate is even considered.

[ This Message was edited by: Ffuzzy-Logik on 2007-07-05 11:36 ]