Grinding Statistics please

[jayster]

Can someone do some math for me and tell me what to expect if I would grind 3 phantoms to 5 on a 3* luck day. How many, probability speaking, would make it to 5? And how many I could expect to grind to 5 if I have 5 phantoms.

And a further question, if I had 5 phantoms, how many could I grind to 6 and how many to 7?

Lastly, how many phantoms would it take me to get a +10. I don't care about personal luck or whatever, I just want to know the statistics.

[360NyTeMaRe]

It depends on what kind of grinders you use, and hopefully you're not one of those people who uses +10 grinders for all 10 grinds, because otherwise this could prove very expensive for you.

[Reipard]

You're honestly better off buying a Phantom+10 outright. I found mine for 10 million and have not been disappointed since; I probably would have spent much more trying to grind it myself.

[360NyTeMaRe]

I agree, because I've broken 14 Phantoms and failed 9 Phantom synths in a row. Sega BS <3

[Kion]

I think i have an idea. If you flip one coin, the chances of it landing on heads is 1/2. If you flips two coins the chances of both of them landing on heads is 1/4. To equate this to grinding it's like the odds of being successful at each step.

So use the grinding rates on PSUpedia and multiply them together at each step for a good estimate:
http://i190.photobucket.com/albums/z88/kion_01/grind.jpg

On a 3* luck day with all A+10's on an A rank weapons, the odds would be 1.0 x .9 x.9 x .9 x .9 ~= .66. So you have a 2/3 chance of making it to +5. The odds of getting to +10 are about 7.5%. DJ grinded an ulteri to +10 and it took him about 21 of them.

[360NyTeMaRe]

I've broken 14 going to 8.

[Wallin]

I'm so stingy I won't grind anything past guaranteed since I can't afford replacements, it's so sad, LOL

[jayster]

On 2007-07-27 14:49, Kion wrote:
I think i have an idea. If you flip one coin, the chances of it landing on heads is 1/2. If you flips two coins the chances of both of them landing on heads is 1/4. To equate this to grinding it's like the odds of being successful at each step.

So use the grinding rates on PSUpedia and multiply them together at each step for a good estimate:
http://i190.photobucket.com/albums/z88/kion_01/grind.jpg

On a 3* luck day with all A+10's on an A rank weapons, the odds would be 1.0 x .9 x.9 x .9 x .9 ~= .66. So you have a 2/3 chance of making it to +5. The odds of getting to +10 are about 7.5%. DJ grinded an ulteri to +10 and it took him about 21 of them.



thank you http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_smile.gif