My luck theory, how it affects drops or not.

[Turbobrain]

I have a solid theory on luck. Imagine, if you will, a bag of sweets. These bags come in FOUR different sizes from 0-3. In that bag you have some red, some blue, some green and a few rare white ones(Cocanut rum say, mmmo)).

Now, I love the white sweets but these sweets are geting handed out by the fat ppl I work with and I'm lucky if I get my whte one... as there are so few. But sometimes I do get a white one.

Now some days they get bigger and bigger bags of sweets so those fat fecks give me more sweets, and because I get more sweets I stand a good chance of getting a white one, though I get a load of green ones that I throw at ppl when they're not looking coz I can't stand them.

Some days it's size 1, some times 2, sometimes EVEN 3. Even a small size ZERO I still stand a chance.

Now sometimes the BOSS comes and makes sure EVERYONE gets a set amount of sweets and NO MATTER how big that bag is we all get the same whether its small or big(as he wants us to work rather than eat all day). The point is with the boss, no matter HOW big the bag is I stand a chance of getting a white one as we all get the same ammount whether the bag is 0 or 3 size.

Thats how, IMO and after 2000 hours of this game luck afffects boss drops. I used the analogy coz, well, I like it:)

(I copied this into another thread here, I just thought I'd share as I think I'm onto something here!).



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Turbobrain on 2007-09-17 15:24 ]</font>

[beatrixkiddo]

This has been known for quite some time. Luck increases the chance that an enemy will drop ANYTHING, first of all. Secondly, it increases the chance that an enemy will drop a "rare".

Whether it's a 'good' rare or not is entirely up to chance.

[Ffuzzy-Logik]

Well......that's one of looking at it.


I guess.

[RegulusHikari]

On 2007-09-17 15:15, beatrixkiddo wrote:
This has been known for quite some time. Luck increases the chance that an enemy will drop ANYTHING, first of all. Secondly, it increases the chance that an enemy will drop a "rare".

Whether it's a 'good' rare or not is entirely up to chance.



Don't bother, nobody will listen to you, I've tried. http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_wacko.gif

[Turbobrain]

On 2007-09-17 15:15, beatrixkiddo wrote:
This has been known for quite some time. Luck increases the chance that an enemy will drop ANYTHING, first of all. Secondly, it increases the chance that an enemy will drop a "rare".

Whether it's a 'good' rare or not is entirely up to chance.






RegulusHikari

Don't bother, nobody will listen to you, I've tried.



Cool, I guess I was right then with my observations!!!

I know a lot of people do debate this theory but I think it's solid(as you guys seem to say to)

I think the way I put it though is kinda simple(evn my simple friend understood it).

And it's true, I NEVER get those damn white jelly beans.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Turbobrain on 2007-09-17 15:20 ]</font>

[kyle21]

So..your saying its fat people that are getting all my rares? I knew it!!

[Umberger]

On 2007-09-17 15:15, beatrixkiddo wrote:
This has been known for quite some time. Luck increases the chance that an enemy will drop ANYTHING, first of all. Secondly, it increases the chance that an enemy will drop a "rare".

Whether it's a 'good' rare or not is entirely up to chance.



[/thread]

[Jet1337]

There is no drop rates in this game. It's based on the random factor. Sonic Team got lazy and left it up to a random generator to determine rares. How else can you explain that after 1 year, no one has been able to find drop rates?

[kyle21]

On 2007-09-17 15:38, Jet1337 wrote:
There is no drop rates in this game. It's based on the random factor. Sonic Team got lazy and left it up to a random generator to determine rares. How else can you explain that after 1 year, no one has been able to find drop rates?



Got a [B] Meteor Cannon after killing the first Polavohra on my first run of DitR last night... that should help support your statement.

Oh and it was 0* luck.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: kyle21 on 2007-09-17 15:45 ]</font>

[-Ryuki-]

Pfft. Everyone knows that 0 luck Rare Hunts are the best.

Clearly. Duh.

[beatrixkiddo]

On 2007-09-17 15:38, Jet1337 wrote:
There is no drop rates in this game. It's based on the random factor. Sonic Team got lazy and left it up to a random generator to determine rares. How else can you explain that after 1 year, no one has been able to find drop rates?



Drop rates don't mean that after killing, say, 512 enemies, you will find an item with a 1/512 drop rate. It means EACH TIME you kill that enemy, it has a 1/512 chance of dropping it. So naturally it's random, what the hell else would it be?

[majan]

On 2007-09-17 15:15, beatrixkiddo wrote:
This has been known for quite some time. Luck increases the chance that an enemy will drop ANYTHING, first of all. Secondly, it increases the chance that an enemy will drop a "rare".

Whether it's a 'good' rare or not is entirely up to chance.



are we positive that it increases the CHANCE of it dropping a rare?or that it just increases the chance of it dropping something---the chance of it dropping a rare seems to be based more on the creature's level than anything else.running mizuraki defense S and holy grounds S2 for example are two completely different things in terms of the amount of rares you will find.same can be said for tunnel recap S2 and valley of carnage S for instance.

just wondering why you would say that,since its been known widely that luck increases primarily the chance that a monster will drop something and that it generally has no influence on just what the drop is.please explain

[MSAksion]

"YOU HAVE MAX LUCK"
"YOU KILLED lVL 100 MONSTER"
"YOUR FRIEND GETS SCAPE DOLL [B]"
*Sega Sonic Team - LOL hahahahahaha yeah that's still a RED drop

In any case the Drop rate in this game is HORRENDOUS. HORROR - END- US. As in people quit this game because they have no shiny. And i understand.

Even with Max luck you could spam the mission over and over and not find anything of super value. Everyone by now has a stockpile of Junaline and Merculine - useful but not as good. And ME/QUICK is a B rank 4* unit why is it worth millions? Because no one can find one it never drops. The ones who need it keep it and those who dont sell it to us poor shmucks for millions.

I heard that PSO had more rare drops for players who played the longest. Its a time thing yeah its not fair for those with jobs, school, and social life but after nearly a YEAR of playing this game the only RARES i own are a Halarod (Probably a duped one that i traded a Crea Double Board for) and a Gudda Skella Knuckle which apparently is pretty common. 10% ICE OF COURSE when it successfully synthed making it completely useless.

HORROR - Its unfathomable how bad the drop rate is
END - People quit or get frustrated with the insane drop rate
US - those who worship PSU as the end all time waster can't help but see our friends leave or feel so down - games are supposed to be FUN.

[TetsuyaHikari]

I have a rather simple theory on luck. Why don't you just step out of your room and go to a field, then see what happens?

See? It's easy!

Seriously..a lot of people need to stop getting so bent out of shape, nearly having an aneurysm because, "ZOMG!! MY RACE DUN GET 3 LUK 2DAY!!1111".

I'm with the group of people who believe that luck in this game is merely just a placebo and is just there to get peoples' hopes up. I'm a pragmatic kind of person, so until I see 3 luck do something worth mentioning, it's pretty much crap to me.

With 3 luck, I couldn't grind a Sword past 4, but without luck, I was able to get it to 8. I find rares with and without luck. It doesn't help with spawns or anything of the sort either.

So, like I said..my theory is simple..walk out of your room to see if you'll find anything, because as far as I'm concerned...luck is JUST that. LUCK.

Just because you have luck doesn't necessarily mean it's GOOD luck. I think it really just depends on the person's personal luck. Some people will ALWAYS get rares, just cause that's the kind of luck they have. While the rest of us, such as myself..get close to none, cause I've never been good at finding rares, in ANY game.

Next theory someone comes up with will probably be like:

With 3 luck, your items will sell faster in your Player Shop! Really! It works http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_wacko.gif

EDIT: And don't forget! Your Sonic statue on the red box can help you find your favorite items from OTHER Player Shops for 50% off http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Kikumaru on 2007-09-17 21:22 ]</font>

[engelsein]

i completly agree

[IamPUMA]

On 2007-09-17 15:45, RyukiZero wrote:
Pfft. Everyone knows that 0 luck Rare Hunts are the best.

Clearly. Duh.


Err well no *1 Luck is the best day to shop around. But high *'s affects how often a killed thing will drop something. PUMA found a Sori Te and *8ARM thingy from deragan recently. Get a group destroy a boss and split the income. Derka Derka

[Powder Keg]

Luck is proven to increase chances of grinding, given the messages the NPC shop gives you before you attempt a grind.

Other than that, luck doesn't do jack shit from what I've seen.

[-Ryuki-]

When people really long explanations, I kind of don't bother reading them >.>;

[Jet1337]

My friend actually believed he could find a HPC on 3* luck during that week. What a fucking waste of time. Turns out he didn't find one and now he doesn't play anymore. What's the incentive to play a game when there are NO FUCKING REWARDS?!?!?

[TetsuyaHikari]

Well, there ARE rewards..the only problem is when people start thinking that the item they want will just fall out of the sky just because they have 3 luck.

Set the luck aside and just try to have fun with the game. Sheesh http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_rolleyes.gif

[stukasa]

Nice analogy. Too bad photon fortune is pretty much useless outside of grinding.
It's been said before, but... real luck > photon fortune

I should quote myself for truth there, because it so is. http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_wacko.gif

[Jet1337]

My definition of a reward is to go down a long path that you know and getting something great at the end. That's not the case in this game because you have no idea in hell when that certain item drops.

[pikachief]

On 2007-09-17 15:13, Turbobrain wrote:
Now, I love the white sweets but these sweets are geting handed out by the fat ppl I work with and I'm lucky if I get my whte one... as there are so few. But sometimes I do get a white one.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Turbobrain on 2007-09-17 15:24 ]</font>


SO THATS Y KITTY IS SO LUCKY!

I must tell my friendz that Kitty's luck comes from coconut rum!

[Bitey]

How can there still be debates about whether luck drops more rares or not?

Look, it is simple, the more luck we have the more drops per monster killed we get. So say if you killed about 50 Pannons with 0 star luck, you would receive a lower number of drops than compared to killing 50 Pannons with 3 star luck. This is a given and any player capable of playing PSU and counting can confirm this.

Now take probability and common sense.

Regardless of whatever drop rates that are programmed into this game, we, as players, know that some of the drops we could get might be rares. Now, without knowing the drop rates we could estimate that we might get 3 rares out of 350 drops during a 500 monster killing spree with 0 star luck (that is actually a very conservative estimate). We know that having 3 star luck gives us more drops overall per monster killed than having 0 star luck, so that means that 350 drops per 500 monsters killed also has to increase. So, according to probability, if 350 drops per 500 kills increases to, say, 400 drops per 500 kills (another estimate), then 3 rares per 350 drops has to increase as well to X>3 rares per 400 drops.

The only way our chance of getting a rare dropped with 3 star luck compared to 0 star luck does not increase is if the game is actually programmed to lower rare drop rates with higher star luck and that does not seem fair. So assuming that our chances of getting rare drops do not decrease with higher star luck, we have to get more rares with higher star luck.

[Indica]

This game is just based on luck and chance, nothing more

[Turbobrain]

However, some people fail to see the beauty and simplicity of my analogy. You really should try those cocunat beans THEN it will all fall into place;)