AotI-PC/PS2: Random Number Generator Theoretical Research (o

[cel]

Allright. I'm going to try to tackle what is potentially a very complicated topic and probably way beyond my comprehension. But I want to learn things when possible, and want to share information I deem to be relevant as much as I can. I ask for you guys to kindly assist this little thread with your ideas and input. It'd be really nice to get a wide variety of comments, thoughts, and arguements to help carry this forward.

Wish me luck. Get it??? Okay, that was a stupid attempt at a lame joke.

It is my belief that the Random Number Generator (hereafter referred to as RNG) in PSU (my experience is limited only to the PS2/PC version) is flawed. As universal forum rules go, "screenshots or it didn't happen". I will provide screen shots to elaborate on my theories as I progress on my research. I will provide forum links featuring player experiences that might prove or disprove this notion. I will improvise and think of what else I can do to add to this ambitious effort.

"How does the RNG affect me and why should I care", some might ask. Well, it affects us all and you'll care unless you like pulling your hair out when you synth something and your PM gives you some stupid material instead, for example. When you synth that item, the RNG works its magic. When you pop that boss box, or kill that mob, the RNG decides what will appear as a result. When you enter a mission and start a trial, the RNG will decide what mobs will spawn and will allocate rare spawns if applicable. When you create a character (this is a THEORY) the RNG does something a little special for your account or character code on the actual server. When you bet coins at the casino... you know the drill by now.

Some people might also think, "but wait, if the RNG is truly flawed and we figure out exactly how to manipulate it, it will be PSO hacking/duping/game breaking all over again." Absolutely, positively not and I don't want any form of hints or information related to cheating in this thread please.. That situation and the research I am proposing are two different beasts. There is no way to completely manipulate a random number generator 100% of the time. It is pretty much impossible. The intent is to discover the nature of the beast and help us, the players, have an easier time avoiding aggrivation while trying to enjoy the innate pleasures of the game itself.

All in all, I could be completely off my rocker, and be completely off base with how this game is really coded. That's why I want to do this. To see if this idea is accurate or if it is worthless is my intention.

And now for the plethora of infant reserved posts to eventually become grown up posts with jobs and contributions to society (this one, at least).Please be patient with these as this is a tremendous undertaking on my part and I want to be as thorough as I can.

[cel]

Casino Observations
(under construction)

oh dear what did i get myself into this time...in the words of Miles Edward O'Brien, "This is gonna to be more complicated than I thought."

anyway. I'll start simple. how many times have you walked into the casino, at random, and see nothing but black numbers having won @ the roulette? Or maybe a full row of red? It happens to me a lot, and that's... not random. Regarding the screenshots, I swear to you that I did not tamper with the originals except for simple image cropping for the sake of bandwidth. Save the image and analyze them yourself. You'll see that I mean what I say.

Many times I'll observe this happenstance when at an empty casino on a sparsely populated server (Universe). When I'm on the most populous server, in my case Uni2, I usually witness a much more diverse and more seemingly random numerical outcomes, and there is almost always more than one person there.

So I left my room after logging in and headed straight to the casino. The login server assigned me to Universe 3 when I logged in this time around. Initially, I was just going to grab my coin allowance and deposit it, until I saw the infamous full row of black numbers that I have definitely seen before in depopulated servers at random. As before, I thought to myself, "just know red is going to win next..." but I was already 3/4 of the way to the coin lady and had no coins to bet with. After I heard "no more bets please" as I was getting paid, I then heard "red 5". "Not again" I thought to myself...

http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/4258/psu20080122044624000pe6.jpg
This is what I saw when I decided to toy around a bit with the RNG.

When dealing with numbers, it's usually a good idea to use basic logic when possible for the maximum advantage. After all, logic = numbers. I used the fact that I was on universe 3, represented as 1:03. In other words, a 13 (my most hated numbers but that's an ENTIRELY different and philosphical topic and doesn't really belong here).

So i bet 10 copper on black and lost. Then I bet 20 copper on black and lost. Because I like operating in threes, I bet 40 copper, again on black, feeling I'd lose. And I did. I did this on purpose to both test the RNG and to purposely get 31 copper left to bet with (I have screenshots demonstrating this sequence, but I don't want to fill this post with somewhat redundant screenshots. Take my word for it, for the time being, please, and I'll demonstrate my honesty below).

http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/8180/psu20080122044954002hc0.jpg
Here you see me making my 40 copper bet just before I lose it. Notice The Universe I am in, along with the amount I have left. 31 = 13 in reverse. I'd explain why this makes sense and is relevant, but again, completely different and controversial topic, and out of the scope of this post. I might get into that later, but numerology really is something that lots of people are skeptical about (including myself) but it does seem to prove its worth every now and then.

http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/205/psu20080122045111004sq1.jpg
Here you see me betting 31 copper coins on my 4th bet after 3 straight losses on the same color. Note, I'm betting on black, for the 4th time in a row. I'm still on Universe 3, or 1:03. You don't need me to post a larger image to show the Universe because the same sequence of numbers from the previous image demonstrating my current server location are present in this image and the likelihood of that happening in any period of time or in another server is close to nil. Really though, if you are a hardcore skeptic, I can provide the full screenie upon request. I'll throw you a bone in the next screenshot.

I'm sure you can guess what happened next.
http://img403.imageshack.us/img403/9397/psu20080122045222005xd8.jpg

I forsaw this outcome. I was able to do so because of common logic. Odds were generally in my favor because I took so many losses in a row. Furthermore, the server knew I was there making bets, so I, as a player character, was directly interacting with an NPC environment. This suggests the possibility of the "observer effect" which has become all the rage in quantum physics research. Out of scope, again. Look it up if interested, though. Basically, this is important because I interacted with the RNG. The reason I mention this is because it is very likely that the RNG has a similar property to the observer effect, because in order for it to determine something in most cases, we have to interact with it somehow. Before, when I wasn't there, there wasn't a single player (presumeably, especially since I did this at an off peak hour when our most populated server had only one star). For the record, this entire sequence took place at 4:50 in the morning, pacific standard time.

So to sum this part up, I used a variety of gimmicks to tease the RNG. I bet 3 times on the same color in Universe 3. I bet 31 black after losing 3 times in Universe 1:03. Not coincidentally, 3 + 1 = 4 which is bet interval I did win on. Another noncoincidence is the presence of the numbers red 11 and 9 and then 19. In a "trifecta", to quote a legend. These two numbers follow me around everywhere. I look at a clock, why, it's 21:11 or 9:11 in the morning. That could be a subconscious thing or could be synchronicity, though. I don't want to sidetrack too much into those topics but I thought it was worth mentioning because, again, numbers are at the very core of a RNG.

Allright, so this proves nothing, or at best, proves very little. Fair enough, and I agree with such a judgement. So I broke the trend, and threw a new sequence at the RNG. I bet 20 on black and lost after just having won with a well organized, and patterened 31. This left me with 42 coins which has no numerical significance as far as I can see in this situation. This also doesn't really say much because, for all I know, that could have been a completely random outcome.

Because 31 seemed to be the RNG's choice for the time being (not surprising because 13 is a key number you'll find in many forms of modern media), I decided to use it again. This is the 2nd time I have used 31 to bet, and the 6th time I have consecutively bet on the same color.

http://img174.imageshack.us/img174/43/psu20080122045411008jd2.jpg
The bet has been placed and I wonder what will happen next. Because of my suspicions, I have an inkling of what will happen and surely enough...

http://img239.imageshack.us/img239/1139/psu20080122045520009xs4.jpg
uh-huh. Not only did I win, the number 8 won twice in a row. That's not INCREDIBLE, true, but I have to mention it because the odds aren't in favor of that happening. The RNG loves the number 31. Or maybe it doesn't. Remember, I'm not drawing any conclusions yet. I'm only presenting observations and seasoning them with my thoughts.

Right after that win, which put me +3 copper coins over what I had to start betting with (1 silver, 1 copper), I bet 31 again and lost. Remember before when I made a reference to 3 + 1 = 4, and that being the number of bets I placed until I won? Well, I used the number 31 again right after that loss and won again, having 1 silver 4 copper a 2nd time.
http://img108.imageshack.us/img108/1208/psu20080122045950014kl5.jpg

Then I got bored of black. I did something human and fairly unpredictable from an artificial intelligence point of view. "I wanna bet on red", I thought to myself.I won again. What number did I use to bet with?
http://img261.imageshack.us/img261/6583/psu20080122050121019wu7.jpg
Look at that row of winning numbers. 25, 26, 27, 28, and 29. Granted, they're not in numerical order, but they're still there all at once. Is that really random? Again, it's obviously possible. Likely to happen in a bona fide random situation? I think not.

I got a little cocky and bet 62 copper this time on black and lost when the RNG decided "No, im doing red again! Screw you, hippie!". So, I tucked my tail in between my legs and bet 31 again, on black. Again.
http://img185.imageshack.us/img185/138/psu20080122050422020eq9.jpg
Here you can use some basic subtraction to see that when I bet on black with 62, I lost when the roulette came up with red 25. Then you can see how I won 62 copper, again, when it came up black 36.

For those of you who have resisted the urge to tl;dr and have read this far into this portion of my thread, here comes your reward. You guys are going to LOVE this next sequence. The odds of this next sequence have got to be slim to none. It's almost like there was a guy on the server side toying with me and the RNG itself. This part is truly stranger than fiction and happened right before my very eyes. Please do keep in mind that this happened all in the same sitting. That is I did not leave the casino at all for this entire collection of screenshots.

By now you probably get what I'm doing. So this part will just be a lightning round with just some screenshots and brief captions to describe the image. All of these shots, like the ones above, happen one after the other.

http://img507.imageshack.us/img507/5212/psu20080122050454021ut5.jpg
Here I decided to be almost complete random. I bet 31 coins on 0. I knew my odds of winning were poor, but I had a mission, you see. And I succeeded in my own little way. I had no idea how wildly I'd succeed though, and the supposed RNG really came through. Anyway, I lost that bet.

http://img507.imageshack.us/img507/5559/psu20080122050622022kc9.jpg
Right, so zero didn't work. What about 31 coins on 31?

http://img185.imageshack.us/img185/4196/psu20080122050734024dd9.jpg
Ack... losing money fast. 31 coins on a number range that seems to be popular for the moment?

http://img507.imageshack.us/img507/9779/psu20080122050909025ij9.jpg
Nope. Another loss. If at first you don't succeed... try, try again, right?

http://img186.imageshack.us/img186/3614/psu20080122051032026qp4.jpg
K. I'm just about out of betting money now. I like how black 24 came up when I've been betting on 25-36. Juuust outside of range. Well, I hope I win this time.

http://img507.imageshack.us/img507/6713/psu20080122051148027og4.jpg
Three letters come immediately to mind. W, T, and a very, very prominent F. Not only did I bet on 0 not that long ago, it came up when I finally lose all my betting money for the first and only time in that particular session after meticulously toying with the RNG.

Coincidence? It really can't be. RNG is a FNG? Maybe. We'll see as the research continues. ON THE NEXT...
DRAGON BALL ZEE!

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: cel on 2008-01-22 09:48 ]</font>

[cel]

~reserved
mob and loot container observations (this one will be arduous)

[cel]

~reserved
synthesis observations

[SATatami]

Flawed, yes. It's been proven that no RNG is completely random. Eventually, it'll begin to look. The secret is to have a seed number be constantly changing. The easiest way to do such is to use TIME as the seed number. Anyways, even with full knowledge of PSU's RNG, I highly doubt anyone could find a way to cheat with it, since it undoubtedly changes every second, if not nanosecond.

[cel]

~reserved
miscellanous observations (fortune factor as dictacted by stars preceding character name for example)

[SATatami]

inb4miscellanousobservations. Sorry for the combo breaker, mate.

Anyways, finally found it.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/portable/gbadvance/file/921183/37685

Sure, this file has nothing to do with PSU, but it does look a bit into mysteries that is a RNG, and Fire Emblem's static RNG that ALWAYS starts at the exact same place and goes on from there.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: SATatami on 2008-01-22 06:52 ]</font>

[cel]

On 2008-01-22 06:42, SATatami wrote:
Anyways, even with full knowledge of PSU's RNG, I highly doubt anyone could find a way to cheat with it, since it undoubtedly changes every second, if not nanosecond.



I want to take this early opportunity to emphasize that this is not about cheating in any shape or form. I'm not suggesting or implying anything about you, I'm just trying to avoid a disaster because of how our minds can use word association and pretty much have a waterfall of thoughts and judgements because of one simple key word.

But yes, it's truly impossible to do that just as you said. Time is a key factor, yeah, and will once again be my nemesis for this mission because it is way out of my sphere of control.

lol no problem with the combo breaker. I was getting a little slow on my end. Now to add a ludicrous bit of information to my casino section.

[SATatami]

On 2008-01-22 06:51, cel wrote:

On 2008-01-22 06:42, SATatami wrote:
Anyways, even with full knowledge of PSU's RNG, I highly doubt anyone could find a way to cheat with it, since it undoubtedly changes every second, if not nanosecond.



I want to take this early opportunity to emphasize that this is not about cheating in any shape or form. I'm not suggesting or implying anything about you, I'm just trying to avoid a disaster because of how our minds can use word association and pretty much have a waterfall of thoughts and judgements because of one simple key word.

But yes, it's truly impossible to do that just as you said. Time is a key factor, yeah, and will once again be my nemesis for this mission because it is way out of my sphere of control.

lol no problem with the combo breaker. I was getting a little slow on my end. Now to add a ludicrous bit of information to my casino section.



Yeah, that's the point, it really would be impossible unless you were serverside looking at the actual RNG output. But yeah, I editted my above post witha guide you could read that deals with RNGs, and it helps if you've played Fire Emblem to know what it's talking about.