Synthing is really just a 50/50 chance regardless of percent

[Ludamec]

After spending over 11 mil gettin my PM pretty much pure (lvl 91 w/84% chance) so I can make that Tesbra I been lookin forward to. The idiot spits out a freakin okiku doll. OMG...great way to start the day huh. I've said it once and I'll say it again...I hate synthing...end rant >=(

[Zorafim]

Let's say you have a gun, and you're shooting a target. No matter how far away the target is, you only have a 50/50 chance of hitting it. Either you hit, or you miss. Nothing else factors in to this equation at all; not your skill, the movement of the air, the size of the target, the closeness of the target, nothing.
That's what you're saying.

Out of 100 chances, 84 of those are a chance of landing a successful synth, and 16 of those are a chance of getting a monomate. You just happened to hit one of the 16.

[Shou]

Tesbras drop often in the MAG event so dont get your hopes up.

[erickarim]

lol +11m for a Unpure tech pm ? some one has a picture of a failcat ?


why make unpure btw ? if you are spending lots of dough for it. why not make it pure. ?

[Proto07]

Be glad you even found a [b] Tesbra. You wouldn't believe how bad some people have it.
<---

[Jife_Jifremok]

In this case, an 84% chance of hitting the target regardless of any other factors.

[McLaughlin]

84% =/= 100%

[Yunfa]

I failed at Kan Yu on a pure striking PM @ 92% success rate back when Kan Yu's still fetch a decent price even for a low %...o,o shit happens.

[gryphonvii]

pity the man who failed the agito repca, 99%, or the psycho wand while we are at it.

[RedMussel]

I dont use my TECH PM much, but shes made 3 Tesbra, 1 Kazarod. Then failed a Halarod. lol

[SStrikerR]

Play the game minesweeper.
On easy there's 81 squares, and 10 bombs. Even if you know how to play the game, you'll probably hit a bomb at one time or another. And I think this belongs in rants.

[ChaosAngel92]

For more information, read something about the "Schrödinger's Cat" paradox.
In the end, everything turns to be an unpreditible 50/50 on this world.
You have a half-dead, half-alive cat.

[Umberger]

On 2008-04-06 10:56, Ludamec wrote:
After spending over 11 mil gettin my PM pretty much pure

You could have just used debuff TECHNIC disks and done it for 3 million...

[Mikura]

On 2008-04-06 14:29, Umberger wrote:

On 2008-04-06 10:56, Ludamec wrote:
After spending over 11 mil gettin my PM pretty much pure

You could have just used debuff TECHNIC disks and done it for 3 million...




I think it's a bit late trying to give him advice now. But really, do some research next time OP before you make that kind of investment in something.

On topic: Like everyone else said, just because it's a high % does not mean it's guaranteed. Unless it's 100%, anything can and will fail eventually. You just happened to be unfortunate your first try. Better luck next synth.

[Ryno]

i synth a 34% ice sori-senba on my TECH PM... and it was 44% chance...lol

[Ryno]

On 2008-04-06 10:56, Ludamec wrote:
After spending over 11 mil gettin my PM pretty much pure (lvl 91 w/84% chance)



if it was lv 100 it would have probably made it.

because I synth my 2 Tesbra's at lv 100


from at least 2 months ago
http://i198.photobucket.com/albums/aa162/xx_RYNO_xx/Tesbraboard.jpg

http://i198.photobucket.com/albums/aa162/xx_RYNO_xx/Tesbraboard1.jpg

86%



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Ryno on 2008-04-06 15:15 ]</font>

[Mikura]

Could've also failed at 86% too. But we'll never know now.

[McLaughlin]

I failed my first Grand Cross at 92%. That was my first S Rank failure. Then I failed my first Kan Yu at 92%.

Murphy's Law.

[ljkkjlcm9]

On 2008-04-06 12:52, gryphonvii wrote:
pity the man who failed the agito repca, 99%, or the psycho wand while we are at it.


I know someone that failed a P-wand and quit because of it

THE JACKEL

[Mikura]

On 2008-04-06 16:54, ljkkjlcm9 wrote:

On 2008-04-06 12:52, gryphonvii wrote:
pity the man who failed the agito repca, 99%, or the psycho wand while we are at it.


I know someone that failed a P-wand and quit because of it

THE JACKEL



Ouch...Silly reason to quit but that must have been absolutely devastating for him.

[SStrikerR]

On 2008-04-06 16:03, Obsidian_Knight wrote:
I failed my first Grand Cross at 92%. That was my first S Rank failure. Then I failed my first Kan Yu at 92%.

Murphy's Law.

Well at least kan yu is pathetically easy to find, but grand cross? owwwwwwwwwwwwww that sucks.

[bLOODSAW]

For this reason i plan on buying my psycho wand when i can afford one, so there is ZERO chance of failure that way....

[dc534]

Yeah I failed the first tesbra I ever tried to synth, after that she failed nothing else. 5 other tesbras, 4 dori, 2 halarod all made after that first one failed, I am waiting for her to fail the next big thing. Probably going to be my friend p-wand.

[steely]

before Aoi i made a meteor cannon on a lvl 0 everthng bot. but then again i also failed 2 blackbulls in a row http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_frown.gif

[Battlestar]

On 2008-04-06 10:59, Zorafim wrote:
Let's say you have a gun, and you're shooting a target. No matter how far away the target is, you only have a 50/50 chance of hitting it. Either you hit, or you miss. Nothing else factors in to this equation at all; not your skill, the movement of the air, the size of the target, the closeness of the target, nothing.
That's what you're saying.

Out of 100 chances, 84 of those are a chance of landing a successful synth, and 16 of those are a chance of getting a monomate. You just happened to hit one of the 16.



That's how it should be yes, in theory. But why do the majority of players seem to be hitting these 16's ALL THE TIME? It's as if the game has some kind of 'global % reduction' on EVERYTHING. So if an item was 84% it would be knocked down (behind the scenes) to like, 64%, but the players don't know this. This is how it seems anyway.. it's just extremely improbable for everyone to always be hitting these 16's... it's almost as if, hitting one of the 84's is a lucky thing and you should be really happy.. but it shouldn't be, because you should be hitting those most of the time and hardl ever a 16...

[ljkkjlcm9]

To note, you hear about failures a lot more than you hear about success

for instance. Do you hear about the 99 guys who can do a backflip, or the one that messes it up and falls on his face?

THE JACKEL

[Atomic646]

On 2008-04-06 10:56, Ludamec wrote:
After spending over 11 mil gettin my PM pretty much pure (lvl 91 w/84% chance) so I can make that Tesbra I been lookin forward to. The idiot spits out a freakin okiku doll. OMG...great way to start the day huh. I've said it once and I'll say it again...I hate synthing...end rant >=(

Over 11mill. WTF did you feed it. I fed mine batons took 2 1/2 days but only cost around a Mill

[Atomic646]

On 2008-04-06 16:54, ljkkjlcm9 wrote:

On 2008-04-06 12:52, gryphonvii wrote:
pity the man who failed the agito repca, 99%, or the psycho wand while we are at it.


I know someone that failed a P-wand and quit because of it

THE JACKEL

I know a guy who failed a Psycho Wand too. We joked about it failing, then it did. LOL

sorry for Double >_<

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Atomic646 on 2008-04-07 01:15 ]</font>

[Ludamec]

On 2008-04-07 01:10, Atomic646 wrote:

On 2008-04-06 10:56, Ludamec wrote:
After spending over 11 mil gettin my PM pretty much pure (lvl 91 w/84% chance) so I can make that Tesbra I been lookin forward to. The idiot spits out a freakin okiku doll. OMG...great way to start the day huh. I've said it once and I'll say it again...I hate synthing...end rant >=(

Over 11mill. WTF did you feed it. I fed mine batons took 2 1/2 days but only cost around a Mill

allow me to clarify. i found the board in a shop for 7.9mil. bought it. made a tech pm from scratch and spent around 3mil or so to feed. and bought a few necessary materials for the synth...needless to say it didnt go over to well. and to the guy who said tesbras drop in MAG....i dont know where you heard that. but the drop charts on psupedia say otherwise...although i hope ur right

[amtalx]

I'd say the percentages are about right. I've failed a few S ranks at +90%, but I've also made A LOT more that came out. Some people just have bad luck though...

[Follisimo]

On 2008-04-07 05:40, Ludamec wrote:

On 2008-04-07 01:10, Atomic646 wrote:

On 2008-04-06 10:56, Ludamec wrote:
After spending over 11 mil gettin my PM pretty much pure (lvl 91 w/84% chance) so I can make that Tesbra I been lookin forward to. The idiot spits out a freakin okiku doll. OMG...great way to start the day huh. I've said it once and I'll say it again...I hate synthing...end rant >=(

Over 11mill. WTF did you feed it. I fed mine batons took 2 1/2 days but only cost around a Mill

allow me to clarify. i found the board in a shop for 7.9mil. bought it. made a tech pm from scratch and spent around 3mil or so to feed. and bought a few necessary materials for the synth...needless to say it didnt go over to well. and to the guy who said tesbras drop in MAG....i dont know where you heard that. but the drop charts on psupedia say otherwise...although i hope ur right


http://psupedia.info/Program_DF
They drop in Program DF.

[cheapgunner]

For my pure striking PM, she has only failed about 3 out of 60+ striking s-ranks I have synthed so far. The funny thing is, about half of them were b4 aoti started. ^.^

[desturel]

I ran Demons Above all weekend. Saw 4 Kazarod drop to other people until I finally get one (got two Togeha-zashi boards though). Of course I got an okiku doll, so I'll be back at Demons Above tonight. http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif

Don't let it get you down. Tesbra is pretty easy to get. True Darkness is about a 5~10 min run in a full party. Our best time on Demons Above so far is 15 mins because there's so much running around to friggin' map and you can only skip about 4 spawn.

[Cathbar]

On 2008-04-07 08:34, desturel wrote:

Don't let it get you down. Tesbra is pretty easy to get.



Mind grabbing a few for me? XD

[thana5102]

I fail non element Del Jagnus at 99%.

[Legendria]

On 2008-04-06 10:56, Ludamec wrote:
After spending over 11 mil gettin my PM pretty much pure (lvl 91 w/84% chance)



Aha.. Ahahahahaha....

[desturel]

On 2008-04-07 08:37, Cathbar wrote:

On 2008-04-07 08:34, desturel wrote:

Don't let it get you down. Tesbra is pretty easy to get.



Mind grabbing a few for me? XD



Haha, are you on the 360 server? After I finish hunting Kazarod and Hoshi-kikami (and synthing), I wouldn't mind doing some True Darkness runs.

Of course it also drops on Maximum Attack G from Dark Falz:
http://psupedia.info/Program_DF

So there's a good chance that the price will drop significantly in a couple of weeks. http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_smile.gif

[Cathbar]

On 2008-04-07 09:25, desturel wrote:

Haha, are you on the 360 server? After I finish hunting Kazarod and Hoshi-kikami (and synthing), I wouldn't mind doing some True Darkness runs.



Lol, sorry. I meant that as a joke (I have the worst luck ever XD) But thank you very much. I'm on the PC/PS2 anyways.

[Kylie]

Huh. They didn't move this to the rants section?

Anyway, I used to hate synthing, but then I saw how great my luck is with it. http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_lol.gif I've only failed one s rank weapon, and it was a bil de axe that I didn't care about. My PM usually loves me when it comes to high percentage, too. People that have pure machineries get me to synth for them. http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/anime2.gif

[DAMASCUS]

I subscribe to the 'training' superstition which is that the item you synthesize successfully helps to decrease the chance of failure of that item in the future. I finally got a Shi-Kikami and I plan to 'train' my PM on making fans before I pop it in. It can still fail of course so its still just superstition..

[Nirvash7]

I failed four Svaltus Swords at 60% chances in a row and failed two Stormics at 81% chances in a row. Explain how that works...

[Akaimizu]

Desturel helped me run some True Darkness runs for the elusive S rank Crossbow. Never got one yet, but in a bit, I'll probably go back to those runs and hunt for it again. Still have this one shotty art I'm still working on, though. Something that should be of use for TD.

Still. You'll want a full party to speed it. 2 people is nice, but it's much better so you can repeat it quickly.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Akaimizu on 2008-04-07 12:13 ]</font>

[desturel]

On 2008-04-07 12:10, Akaimizu wrote:
Desturel helped me run some True Darkness runs for the elusive S rank Crossbow. Never got one yet, but in a bit, I'll probably go back to those runs and hunt for it again. Still have this one shotty art I'm still working on, though. Something that should be of use for TD.

Bah, that hardly counted as helping you look. I did three runs and then got off for the night. When you are ready to hunt it for real, let me know. I can stick to one mission for a couple of months if need be and you should be aware of that. http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_smile.gif

[Zorafim]

On 2008-04-07 12:07, Nirvash7 wrote:
I failed four Svaltus Swords at 60% chances in a row and failed two Stormics at 81% chances in a row. Explain how that works...




If 39 people synthed those four svaltus swords, one of them would have failed them all. If 28 people synthed those two Stormics, one would have failed them all. You happed to be that one person.

[Nirvash7]

The only thing that's stopping me from complaining is the fact I haven't paid for the past 2 months and my account's still active.http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_smile.gif

[Cathbar]

On 2008-04-07 16:34, Nirvash7 wrote:
The only thing that's stopping me from complaining is the fact I haven't paid for the past 2 months and my account's still active.http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_smile.gif



If you signed up for just a month, it'll automaticly pay for the next month when your time runs out until you tell them to stop or you don't have the money.

[XinLing]

ive been a long time gamer, some might say " career gamer "... on the subject of synthing, i have always thought of it like a very old traditional style...

[ for those of you who play or have played... ]

dungeons and dragons comes to mind... yes i have a point + i am getting there... since the very first graphically based rpg
[ even before that, with non graphic based rpg ] the dice style system is still used today... just more advanced + complex as games become more advanced...

ex: you want to synth a 12 star whatever well, it all comes down to what i consider the proverbial crapshoot... say the difficulty is dc 10
[ converted is 90 ] the scripting algorythm rolls an imaginary dice to determine success or fail... if it hit 90 or greater, you succeed, otherwise, fail... atleast thats how i interpret this...

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: XinLing on 2008-04-07 18:58 ]</font>

[Kumlekar]

people have had "no chance of failure" grinds fail before, theres always a cahnce of failure, it doesn't mean its 50/50