Casino Disaster - Murphy's Law is a B!tch!

[NiceOnes]

So... The same method I've been using in the casino as of late seemed flawless.. I'd obtained 2g 50s in only a few hours of work.

I scored 100% in probability and had it figured out that there was only a .0156% chance I would lose all my money... I lost it all.

Ever get the feeling there is someone watching the betting and making the decisions?

Naw... Segac wouldn't spend a salary on that!

NiceOnes

[ChibiBecca]

it landed on black 9 times in a row the other day, it was certainly mocking us.

[Seority]

The one I saw landed on red 9 times in a row. And landed on red 13 twice in a row o_O

[NiceOnes]

You both understand the method then. The only thing that can beat it is by having it hit the same color 6 times in a row!*** (Based on my last initial bet). The odds of it hitting red 13 times in a row are .... %0.000122 ... I smell something fishy.

They have to protect themselves somehow considering they don't have a maximum bet. That's how real casino's prevent the dbl+1 method.

NiceOnes

[Inazuma]

casinos in real life, or video game versions are all the same. they are designed to bring in more money than they pay out. those who can see this truth know better than to waste their time/money there. but there will always be suckers who turn a blind eye, or are simply ignorant about how it all works. at least w/ psu, we get a free silver coin everyday. just take your coin and desposit it. its the only way to be a real winner.

just want to add, that for games involving some level of skill, such as poker or blackjack, it may be possible for a very good player to win overall. im mostly talking about luck based games like slots or roulette. those are designed to take advantage of others stupidity.

"a fool and his money are soon parted"

[Calsetes]

I learned that lesson from Rain Man. I also learned that there's only 15 minutes until Wapner, and Tuesdays are Pizza and Cheese Ball nights.


But yeah, with the extra payout bonus they've been giving us, I've just been hoarding them like a rabid wombat in the hopes that I'll be able to get a Chevalier's Edge or two when they come out.

[Kumlekar]

... Method? YOUR GAMBLING! Its randomized. And before you say that computers can't be randomized, they get alot closer than humans. Unless you know exactly what log formula and what is being seeded to the randomization program, you cannot predict the outcome. So please take your casino theories elsewhere.

[NiceOnes]

I didn't describe my method for a reason... Because I knew some fool like yourself would immediately start some kind of arguement. Anyways it does work 99% of the time, however if the 1% chance hits you lose everything. The point of the thread wasn't to argue over the validity of my method. Pay closer attention next time and realize the question was "Is the Voloyal Roulette wheel 100% random?"

Now go back to painting your D&D figurines.

NiceOnes

[SammaeltheDark]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

Though while I do believe that Sega's random number generator is somewhat patterned, I also believe that it is sufficiently random enough to eventually beat any betting strategy
When I'm trying to make a profit I just double on loss until I win but even then when you lose with that method, you lose big. The goal is to make your money and run before you lose no matter what method you use. That's why it's called gambling

[Calsetes]

My theory is stand next to the guy running the roulette wheel. Place a bet. Let the wheel spin. When it lands, you win.

This method is a lot more useful if you have something threatening in their side, like a gun, or an iron stick.

[Dark Emerald EXE]

0_0

i've never found a direct method i'd just guess or place a coin on the 1/3 side and the other 1/3 piece if was close to

[Smidge204]

You're misquoting Murphy's Law. Which, ironically, what Murphy's Law actually says will happen. What you really want is commonly called "Sod's Law."

The "Double plus one method" (aka Martingale system) can actually be shown to only work if you have infinite funds playing an infinite number of games. Go read about the optional stopping theorem (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optional_stopping_theorem). You were doomed at the start, and just got lucky in the short run.


The odds of it hitting red 13 times in a row are .... %0.000122 ... I smell something fishy.

Odds of hitting red: 18/37 (or ~48.648%)
Odds of hitting red 13 times in a row: ~0.00855%

Your "0.000122%" has two problems: First, you assumed that chance of hitting red was 50/50. It's not, because there's always Zero, which is green. Second, you forgot to multiply by 100 when converting raw probability to percentages (0.5^13 = 0.000122 = 0.0122%). Mathematical fail.

I respectfully submit that if you "scored 100% in probability" that either the quality of the school sucked or they graded on a curve and you were simply the smartest idiot in the class.
=Smidge=

Edit: Correction. The wheel is a single-zero pattern with 37 total numbers 0 to 36). Math updated accordingly.

[Dark Emerald EXE]

I respectfully submit that if you "scored 100% in probability" that either the quality of the school sucked or they graded on a curve and you were simply the smartest idiot in the class.
=Smidge=


wow.....harsh *walks away*

[NiceOnes]

I realize that it isn't a perfect 50/50 ratio. I just used 50% to simplify the math. Touche on the x100 which I did forget about. This was math 11 btw which was over 10 years ago for me so I'm not overly worried about forgetting one detail...

BTW: Why does everyone feel the need to better themselves via namecalling and flaming?

Anyways... Biting my tongue.

[Dark Emerald EXE]

I realize that it isn't a perfect 50/50 ratio. I just used 50% to simplify the math. Touche on the x100 which I did forget about. This was math 11 btw which was over 10 years ago for me so I'm not overly worried about forgetting one detail...

BTW: Why does everyone feel the need to better themselves via namecalling and flaming?

Anyways... Biting my tongue.

Well not everyone is like that ^^;


*Neutral parties rule*

o yea i sent u message

[Woeious]

BTW: Why does everyone feel the need to better themselves via namecalling and flaming?

Anyways... Biting my tongue.


E-peen brats.
Anyway yes...the Casino is the embodiment of the devil.

[NiceOnes]

You're misquoting Murphy's Law. Which, ironically, what Murphy's Law actually says will happen. What you really want is commonly called "Sod's Law."


"Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong" is the direct quote.... I stated it wasn't a perfect method and that it did go wrong.... So tell me again why I shouldn't have referenced Murphy's Law? Sod's Law and Murphy's law are the same thing!

[NiceOnes]

Your "0.000122%" has two problems: First, you assumed that chance of hitting red was 50/50. It's not, because there's always Zero, which is green. Second, you forgot to multiply by 100 when converting raw probability to percentages (0.5^13 = 0.000122 = 0.0122%). Mathematical fail.

Edit: Correction. The wheel is a single-zero pattern with 37 total numbers 0 to 36). Math updated accordingly.



I found this reference which made a lot of sense to me: http://www.kanzen.com/analysis.html

NiceOnes

[SammaeltheDark]

What am I missing?
Probability of landing on Red isn't .5 since the wheel has 37 spots on it (are you forgetting 0?)
Correct probability is 18/37

[NiceOnes]

Probability of landing on Red isn't .5 since the wheel has 37 spots on it (are you forgetting 0?)
Correct probability is 18/37

We've already determined that. It is only to simplify the math.

[fighgunners]

Get this. Universe 07 upon logging in had Red 7 three times in a row.

[afterthoughtz]

Was hangin around in there last night, was all red across the board, so figured "hey it has to go black right?" WRONG!! It went all red 4 more times, then hit black once then put did another 11 in red

[Shinko]

casinos in real life, or video game versions are all the same. they are designed to bring in more money than they pay out. those who can see this truth know better than to waste their time/money there. but there will always be suckers who turn a blind eye, or are simply ignorant about how it all works. at least w/ psu, we get a free silver coin everyday. just take your coin and desposit it. its the only way to be a real winner.

just want to add, that for games involving some level of skill, such as poker or blackjack, it may be possible for a very good player to win overall. im mostly talking about luck based games like slots or roulette. those are designed to take advantage of others stupidity.

"a fool and his money are soon parted"

I so agree with this 100%

[Darklighter]

Man if they had black jack or poker I might do more at the casino then just deposit my daily coin.

[Kion]

I learned this leason at the casino early on. Gambler`s fallacy is that previous events don`t affect odds of something happening in the future. Casino landed on red x times in a row; it happened, that`s 100%. So the next time the wheel will land on red again is 18/37.

Gambling is entertainment. the outcome is never certain or else it wouldn`t be so thrilling. The bigger the gamble the bigger the rush. The best thing is to learn to quit while you`re ahead. You can only have so many continuous wins before your luck runs out.

[Raven5_1]

i rarely gamble (prefering just to collect the coins each day) the day i decided t take a gamble i got hit by 15 reds in a row but managed to recover damn near all that i lost on a single big gamble on black

[Arika]

Nobody on SEGA would waste their time keep an eye on casino all the time (and people also can bet it from so many universe!) they like holiday, and they like to rest.

[jayster]

what's the law? I need to get that grenade launcher!

[klaiz_9]

Going to the casino, is kinda of like a surprise. I never expect the amount of ppl that are there, or how much im going to win or lose. lulz
I've been only betting red or black. Its very simple. I sometimes bet alot, the other tiemz I save.
I win some, I lose some. I always did like a good game of chance tho. It gives me a reaon to listen to Abba!