Boss boxes

[xBULLYDOGG]

Ok I've heard so much crap about this it's really getting annoying and I'm sure other have read posts like this over and over but I can't find them etc.

Question 1 - Does GBR % drop rate effect boss boxes
Question 2 - Does luck effect boss boxes

I've heard so many people say that it does and that it doesn't and "..Just like people who think that GBR drop rate and luck doesn't effect boss boxes are morons - DragonStriker" really got me thinking as well. Which one is correct. Now I have noticed a rareness increase to boss boxes due to my % in GBRs but the negatives are outweighing the positives. Is there anythink on the net that will confirm which one is correct. Thanks.

[Shou]

You just opened a can of worms.

Nobody knows.

IMO
1) No
2) No

[Max B]

1.No
2.No
But thats just imo

[ashley50]

never cared for both...I'm just playing.

[darthplagis]

boss boxes are crap!

the gear everyone wants but it never drops :)

GBR only seems to increase the drops cause' they get spammed all month. though im sure sega make stuff drop more when GBR is on (more than the GBR % would say).

seriously just play the game and enjoy :) though its sad to think of all those hours spamming moonlight beast to get hoshi-kikami then they release the kaza-kikami from a ridiculous monster drop (ryugtas).

[Smidge204]

Some of us are actually making plans to find out the answers to these questions! :D

=Smidge=

[Shou]

You can get the gamemakers to tell you?! Or can you find it in some hidden PSU files?

[Smidge204]

I see Shou fails basic scientific methodology...

=Smidge=

[Keilyn]

Scientific methodology goes a very long way as long things remain tested in controlled environment. Seems Humans have Luck 3 today and I can do some work on it.

[desturel]

1) Depends on your point of view.
2) Depends on your point of view.

But there's nothing to prove it other than anecdotal evidence such as:
"You remember during the Parum GBR when nothing but Cladorian would drop from Mother Brain's boss boxes, but now you get Peparian and Slaterian more often than Cladorian"
or
"You remember during the Moatoob GBR how you actually got a good amount of Catilium from all of the boxes in Tunnel Recapture, but now you get rarely get Catilium. Mostly Harnium and Soldonium."
or
"You remember during the Neudaiz GBR how the three boxes in Forest Infiltration behind the 5 person fence on block 2 would always have neu walna and sometimes neu ork, yet now they drop Neu Ebon as well."
or
"You remember during the first Neudaiz GBR where almost every tree in Flowery Pursuit would have Neu Walna, now you mostly get Hustle Berries for those same trees?"
or
"You remember during the Guardian's Colony GBR how the boxes in Seed Awakening S3 would almost always have Catilium, Hapotite, and Ydral now they tend to have megi-photon?"
or
"You remember during the Neudaiz GBR where you would get a Har/Quick or Shock/Resist almost every other run of Eastern Peril, but now you only see one every twenty runs or so?"

etc, etc, etc.

But since most people don't pay attention to those things, they don't believe the drop rate is affected by the GBR or by luck, so it's merely anecdotal evidence that just happens to repeat itself over and over.

In other words, people only tend to pay attention to "the good drops" as in the Major items like Vijeri/Rainbow or Adahna Unit which have extremely small drop rates that aren't generally affected by a GBR boost, but ignore the other items such as {b}Katsuno-zashi on Eastern Peril or Hanmaterics on Forest Infiltration which would drop every run during the GBR. To get even more obscure, there are a set of three boxes in Awoken Serpent on the final block in the last room. Those three boxes always, without fail, with a GBR boost of 100% or more would contain three Di-photons. After the GBR was over, they still mostly contined Di-photons, but many times those boxes would be empty.

Now who pays attention to three boxes that only drop Di-photon? Those items aren't worth paying attention to. Just so you know, I'm a person who pays attention to small crap like that.

People tend to pass over items because they are "crap" items. Since they are not interested in the items, they never notice, nor cared, that the items dropped with a far greater frequency thanks to the GBR percentage. Another thing that is rarely noticed is that the higher the GBR percentage, the more likely you were to get the "crap items" that were a creature specific drops like a Asura-senba and the less likely you were to get the "crap items" that are area drops like "{b}Okanoc". I haven't been able to find a pattern for special area drops such as {b}Psycho Wand or {b}Agito Repca, but again, I'm merely pointing out anecdotal evidence.

So the real question should be:
Are you looking for GBR percentage or Photon Fortune to drastically increase your chances of getting an item with a very small drop rate such as a Hizeri/Mind, Vijeri/Resist, {b}Armas Line or Adahna Unit?

or

Are you looking for the GBR percentage or Photon Fortune to increase the general quality of drops throughout the run and in the boss boxes, while still not getting you the ultra rare.

If your question is the first one then the answer is no. You will still have to do x/1000 runs to find one of those items. The drop rate increase is very small in comparison to the number of runs you will have to do to get those items, so it's still mainly a matter of real life luck. If you really want the item, then you should hunt it until you find it regardless of luck.

If your question is the second one then the answer is yes. You will get a larger amount of items that can be sold making it more profitable (or less cost prohibitive) while you are looking for "the big drop".

Photon Fortune is very useful for farming common items in my opinion. If, for example, you are farming Spicia from the Story Mission Photon Harvest, you are better off doing that when you have 3* luck than you would be doing that with 0* luck, but that mainly depends on if you are doing the story mission on C (where Spicia is more common than resin/polymer) or if you are doing the mission on A (where resin/polymer is more common than Spicia), you can adjust your rank based on what you are hunting and what * luck you have.

Trial and error are required to get the most out of farming common items as well as knowing your farming grounds. Persistence is required for farming rare items as well as patience.

Sonic Team has tweaked the drop rate on items before and they will surely do it again. The most blatant example of drop rate tweaking was when Forest of Illusion was first released. Everyone knows how flooded the market became with {b}Kohibumiteri. So much so that you couldn't even give it away. Six Rappy Amure would get you 6 boards in most of your runs. Then a year later when Rappy Amure showed back up in Forest of Illusion, the drop rates were dramatically nerfed. You might get one {b}Kohibumiteri out of every four or five Rappy Amure. Considering that the drop rate of the forest never changed from 500%, the only real change was the drop rare on the Rappy Amure themselves.

Sonic Team realized that the drop rate boost was far too high for certain items and adjusted the individual item drop rates downwards, while leaving other drop rates alone. That's why things like {b}Gudda Hon, {b}Ank Dedda, Shi-kikami, Shato, and {b} B'duki Boa are still extremely common when going through the Illusion runs.

To conclude. In most people's cases, Photon Fortune doesn't mean a thing. Who cares that more {b}Katsuno-zashi are dropping now It's garbage they won't pick up anyway. Do you care about things you aren't picking up anyway? Probably not, so Photon Fortune means nothing to you. You won't even notice that 5% chance increase at a Milla when you are already doing 500 runs to find the damn Jigo Booma

[Smidge204]

words

To conclude: Let's actually gather the data, examine it, and settle the matter with evidence rather than constantly bickering over it.

http://img340.imageshack.us/img340/3426/martiannextdoor.gif

=Smidge=

[desturel]

To conclude: Let's actually gather the data, examine it, and settle the matter with evidence rather than constantly bickering over it.

Not bickering. Just pointing out anecdotal evidence. I did statistics collections back during the Moatoob GBR. Everyone said I was full of it. I haven't bothered collecting data again. I'm not going to bother trying to change minds and one day of statistics collection at 3* luck isn't going to give you the data set you are looking for.

BTW, if you are a fan of the scientific method, you should at least be able to read through a couple of paragraphs.

[Smidge204]

I did read it, I just didn't think it was worth addressing, let alone quoting in full. :p Most of it I actually agree with, it's just that we shouldn't settle for anecdote when it's relatively easy to actually do the work.

=Smidge=

[Shou]

Do you know how many runs you would have to do to come up with anything remotely close to the actual droprates? >_>

[desturel]

I don't think this is as easy as you make it out to be. The scientific method requires a control set of data that cannot be collected in just one or two days of play. The most obvious factors are ones you have already thought of:
What Mission?
What Rank?
How many runs?
Are you tracking all of the drops in the run or only specific drops?


Other less obvious factors are:
Are you using the same character for each day and not relying on purchased Photon Fortune. Especially since we are not sure if purchased has the same properties as natural Photon Fortune.

One specific run should be taken into account and always run at the same rank with the same character. The best control maps should be ones where there is little to no variations in map type. Story missions (including Magashi Plan and Innocent Girl) and Maximum Attack G' are the best for testing purposes.

Other maps have variations by block on the number of creatures and the number of breakable items. Two block missions with a set block two such as True Darkness, Eastern Peril, Duel in the Ruins, Dancing Birds and Rogue's Shortcut are also good, but the variations in block one could tamper with the control set. Timed missions such as Egg Thieves, Bruce's Dungeon, and Her Secret Mission may also cause problems unless you are certain that you can always finish them, thus not breaking the control set. That and the Timed nature of the mission makes it so you may not always have time to notate what was obtained from each box in each run.

If you are only going to take boss boxes/final boxes into account, that widens the range of missions accessible, but still a shorter run would generally help with the control set. You would have to take into account that AotI missions have a different drop rate than non AotI missions. Also Boss Boxes have different drop rates between missions (Electronic Brain and Seed Express for one example. Grove of Fanatics and Forest Infiltration for another), so statistics gathered from one mission does not provide statistics for another mission.

One final thing I would note is that for the purposes of statistics gathering, it is better to do a lower ranked mission. The rare items drop more frequently at a lower rank. For example you are more likely to get a boss box board from a C rank mission than you would on S2 because of the relative rarity of the item. You might be able to get a better idea of a ratio increase from a higher Photon fortune by doing lower ranked runs first then comparing that set vs. a higher ranked run with the same luck on the same character over a set number of runs.

This could easily turn into a couple of months of data collecting depending on how often your character gets 3* Photon Fortune over that time period. Since we have no way of knowing when a specific character will get that fortune again, you can't get a good set of data. Using a different character who is likely a different class would cause you to have different run times (say a cast fighmaster vs. a neuman masterforce doing the same run). Which would affect your data.

It's all one big PITA. That's one of the reasons I collected data during the old Moatoob GBR. For one thing we had two weeks of 3* luck for that event so I didn't have to worry about luck variation until after the first two weeks. For another, we couldn't change characters. That GBR was character specific. Different characters would have different GBR boost rates.

[Smidge204]

Do you know how many runs you would have to do to come up with anything remotely close to the actual droprates? >_>

I can take an educated guess. What about you? Do you have a number in mind?


desturel

I get the feeling you missed the last (http://www.pso-world.com/forums/showthread.php?t=172916) two (http://www.pso-world.com/forums/showthread.php?t=172778&page=5) threads about this. I think we've been putting more thought into this than you give us credit for. :)

=Smidge=

[desturel]

desturel

I get the feeling you missed the last (http://www.pso-world.com/forums/showthread.php?t=172916) two (http://www.pso-world.com/forums/showthread.php?t=172778&page=5) threads about this. I think we've been putting more thought into this than you give us credit for. :)

Yup, I did miss them and yup, it looks like you did take the other factors into account. :)

[Professor Xavier]

Its only a hunch and a feeling I get at least during free missions. This might be true for the rest of the game as well.

My feeling is sometimes during missions when you are not getting very good rares through the whole mission. Its seems to me you are more likely to get one really great item at the end. This is only a hunch though. Kind of like if you have to much luck some good stuff drops but this actually prevents the really great items from dropping. This has just been my experience. I don't really have anything specific to base it on. Except it is from about four years playing in PSU if that counts for anything.

That's my best guess!!

P.S. everybody's experiences in the game are a little or a lot different!!

[Keilyn]

All you need is around 1000 entries before you can begin applying the Law of Large Numbers....which is actually a proven version of the Law of Averages without all the mediocre crap attached to it.

Just like in a Rare map chance of 50/50 the actual chance out of 100 tries through the law of averages and law of large numbers is proven a 68% occurence of 50+/- 5 and a 28% chance of falling between double the positive and negative range (50+/- 10) of it coming out to be rare (or not rare) given by your choice.

You dont need trials on certain cases to figure out probabilities...:P

[Shou]

You need to run way more than a 1000 runs. Bob ran 700 runs of Seed Express and did not get a single Armas Line.

I was thinking that you would need to run millions of maps.

[Smidge204]

Boy, luckily we just want to determine if there is any effect from GBR boost, not calculate actual rates for specific items. otherwise Shou might have a point.

=Smidge=

[Shou]

I am glad to hear you guys are doing tests. When you are done be sure to be very discrete in your explanation so that people without much knowledge of statistics may understand. :)

Good luck!

[desturel]

Boy, luckily we just want to determine if there is any effect from GBR boost, not calculate actual rates for specific items. otherwise Shou might have a point.

It would be practically impossible, without specific game data, to get a drop rate on a single boss box item. Mainly because there are too many factors outside of our control that affects what goes on. Especially considering that Sonic Team can and has tweaked the drop rates on individual items whenever it suits them.

[Shou]

Actually, you know what you guys should do? Try to find the extra factor in PSU's random number generator.

That would tell us how people can make 10/10 s ranks easily without grind boosts and how anyone on this game could fail 2 99% synths in a row.

[desturel]

how anyone on this game could fail 2 99% synths in a row.

Easy, because 99% isn't 100%. A 1% chance of failure can occur twice in a row. You did take statistics didn't you?

[Shou]

Easy, because 99% isn't 100%. A 1% chance of failure can occur twice in a row. You did take statistics didn't you?
Failing 2 99% synths in a row has a 1 in 10,000 chance of happening. Now, add to that, the person happened to be synthing weapons that can ONLY fail if the RNG lands on that 1%. Now what are the odds?

[xBULLYDOGG]

Twas just looking for answers for both questions but i like where this thread is now heading. My two pence (heh) i have noticed a drop rate increase through out missions during GBR and a increased rarity on certain boxes during GBR. Thanks for the help so far and any one whos compiling data or charts or etc. good luck and thanks in advance.

[Smidge204]

Now, add to that, the person happened to be synthing weapons that can ONLY fail if the RNG lands on that 1%. Now what are the odds?

Not zero, and that's all that matters. When you have thousands of players synthing thousands of weapons, things like this can happen. Welcome to a universe of large numbers.

The odds of getting the jackpot in New Jersey's Pick-6 lotto is 1 in 13,983,816. If all 13,983,816 possible combinations are sold, the chances of someone winning is 1 in 1.

Amazing.
=Smidge=

[Shou]

Not zero, and that's all that matters. When you have thousands of players synthing thousands of weapons, things like this can happen. Welcome to a universe of large numbers.

The odds of getting the jackpot in New Jersey's Pick-6 lotto is 1 in 13,983,816. If all 13,983,816 possible combinations are sold, the chances of someone winning is 1 in 1.

Amazing.
=Smidge=
But are there thousands of players synthing items that have a 99% chance of working? Heck no. I bet it is in the hundreds. Also you have to add to that that this happened to the same player. Not just a 99% synth failed for Joe and then on a different server, the next 99% synth failed for Beth.

Now add to THAT, this happened not too long after repcas had been released.

It is painfully obvious that there is a hidden factor in PSU's RNG. One guess is that at random times, the RNG get some sort of boost and at other times it gets some sort of blow. Just a guess though.

[desturel]

Failing 2 99% synths in a row has a 1 in 10,000 chance of happening. Now, add to that, the person happened to be synthing weapons that can ONLY fail if the RNG lands on that 1%. Now what are the odds?

You are also ignoring that a person making 100 weapons with a 99% chance can make all 100 weapons. Not only that people attempting to fail weapons that have a 4% chance of making have made all of the weapons. (For an example of a 4% chance, take a Soda Hazzoc board and make it with el or im photons.) I've had cases where I was able to make 4 out of 10 weapons with a 4% chance of making. I've failed a weapon with a 99% chance of making. There was even a time when I filled my PM with A rank synth boards (three chances of making and 32 boards) that had less than 100% chance of making and all of the items came out (most of them at crappy percentages).

What you are failing to understand about statistics is that any non-zero value is a possibility.

[Shou]

I totally understand that events with very little probabilities may happen. I am trying to point out that people, on this incredibly unpopulated game, run into these outrageous probabilities very often. The frequency rate of these events are nowhere NEAR what they are supposed to be.

It is like people in PSU keep getting struck by lightning, some more than once or twice. >_>

[Smidge204]

You have to actually SHOW there is an aberration before you start hypothesizing about why it occurs.

How do you know how many synthing events occur every day? How can you demonstrate that, for example, the fail rate is higher than the advertised 1%? How can you show "these outrageous probabilities" occur more than they should by the numbers?

You can "guess" and "bet" and "believe" all you want, but that won't get us anywhere, and 'data' is not the plural of anecdote.
=Smidge=

[Shou]

You have to actually SHOW there is an aberration before you start hypothesizing about why it occurs.
=Smidge=
What do you mean? I did. I never guess WHY it occurs.

How do you know how many synthing events occur every day? How can you demonstrate that, for example, the fail rate is higher than the advertised 1%? How can you show "these outrageous probabilities" occur more than they should by the numbers?
=Smidge=
I can't, but my guestimations can't be that far off. Unless somehow there are 100s of Repcas and Psychos being synthed every day.

[Volcompat321]

One time a while back, I synthed 15 granahodoracs, and I failed 5 of them.
They were all done roughly at the same time, and I pulled them out 1 after the other.

I'm guessing the chances of me failing 5/15 are more than 1/10,000 and it happened.
There's a post somewhere in one of the "Screenshot and movie thread" or "synths and accomplishments" thread of when I did it.
Just in case you don't believe me.

[Smidge204]

What do you mean? I did.

You provided ONE anecdote (with two unrelated samples) and a bunch of unfounded speculation.




I can't, but my guestimations can't be that far off.

Oh, they most certainly can be.




Unless somehow there are 100s of Repcas and Psychos being synthed every day.

Does not follow. Each synth event is completely independent of the others, so it doesn't matter how many are actually made... if one fails in that 1% margin, the next is just as likely to fail at that 1%. This is actually a flaw in your original anecdote anyway: The fact that two synths failed may have a low chance of happening, but the first failure did not have any effect on the second failure. Two different people hitting a 1% chance tells us nothing about any possible bias.
=Smidge=

[Shou]

How is the probability of failing two 99% synths in a row not 1 in 10,000?

Also it does to matter how often 99% items are being synthed. If there are thousands and thousands being synthed, 1 person person failing 2 of them in a row is not that big of a surprise.

[Volcompat321]

I think he means, each time you set up a probability, it resets, giving each synth it's own chance for 1/x.
So it's not actually 1/x, it's just x% each time you put something in to synth.

Or something like that.

[Smidge204]

How is the probability of failing two 99% synths in a row not 1 in 10,000?

They weren't "in a row." Two different people, two different events. STILL doesn't tell us anything about possible bias.




Also it does to matter how often 99% items are being synthed. If there are thousands and thousands being synthed, 1 person person failing 2 of them in a row is not that big of a surprise.

The chance of "Success, Success, Success, Fail, Fail" is exactly the same as "Success, Fail, Success, Success, Fail." Two fails "in a row" means nothing.
=Smidge=

[Shou]

I was pointing out that it was not just two random people, because those events are independant like you said. It was just one person.

I will say that I don't know why I was using the term "in a row" but the fact still remains that this single person recieved a 100 number from the RNG twice for weapons that can only fail if you get the number 100.

Let me put it this way. If people synthed 2 psychowands with a 99% synth rate, only 1 of every 10,000 persons would fail both of them according to the frequency rate.

[Akaimizu]

To me, I almost never count on statistics given here. They never applied to me, nor do I expect them to ever will. I just do. That's all. Just do. It's like how I can attempt to synth a countless amount of Okanohs and never reach the actual percentage average that it says it has. It may have said over 70%, though I've generally had to synth over 3 times as many to get the same amount. And I've crafted a whole lot of those. :)

So as far as I can say, chance is chance. You may not match the numbers, but some people may also have some special luck that shifts the balance back. Your consistant bad luck to their consistant good luck. However, what does that mean for you? About as much as the relationship means for Dark Helmut and Lone Star.

What 90%+ means for me is that I can say that out of 10 attempts, I'm definitely likely to get something out of it. Outside of that, I barely care about the numbers unless they say 100%.

[Powder Keg]

In an older thread on the Sega forum, Edward said in one post that he can confirm that boss boxes are affected by luck and GBR %, and in another post said the same thing "to his knowledge". As far as I know he hasn't answered any other questions regarding it despite being asked several times.

I would have said yes they do if he said he is certain and didn't kind of backtrack by saying "to my knowledge", so I'm going to say no one knows for sure still.


No experiment is going to prove anything, you need game data, or word from a GM or higher insuring that they're positive that it does.

[DragonStriker]

These topics need to stop being created, the people intelligent enough to notice a difference while actually playing the game aren't going to convince people like Shou. In another topic his argument was "SEGA is lazy" and "Edward is an idiot" as to why boss boxes aren't affected. I can assure you, anyone who actually plays the GBRs a lot and plays those missions outside of GBRs will tell you there is a large difference, and a noticeable one at that. And Shou you need to stop bringing up Bobby as an argument for this, his Armas line hunts have been extremely unlucky but these have mostly been outside of the GBR. Now lastly the whole "They TA those maps all the time" retarded response, when you TA a map you are only getting a boost of 50% so even if they do the map 100000x it won't be too noticeable. Anyone with half a brain would understand a 50% boost is nothing compared to a 300% boost when we are dealing with small percentages and fractions. I just don't understand how the people always arguing against GBR boost are the ones who rarely play the GBRs and the missions outside of the GBRs. Shou I have known you for a very long time and even I know you have incredible luck with drops and you don't even play that often. Now bringing up things like "1st Neudaiz GBR" just makes absolutely no sense because there was only 1 mission with note worthy boss drops and that was White Beast. And I would challenge you to find people who consistently find things at White Beast outside of that GBR anywhere near the level they were found during the GBR. And that can be said of any of the GBRs, go run Seed Express S2 on the pc/ps2 server and tell me how during that GBR the Grand Cross and Blackheart boards were dropping consistently and how they don't now. Let alone the fact someone else brought up in regards to cladorian. Honestly people if you don't want to believe GBR boost affects boss drops, that's fine but don't try to argue something that you really have no expertise on. And that means if you rarely play the game let alone the GBRs just shut the hell up and leave the arguments for people who actually do so.

[Shou]

In an older thread on the Sega forum, Edward said in one post that he can confirm that boss boxes are affected by luck and GBR %, and in another post said the same thing "to his knowledge". As far as I know he hasn't answered any other questions regarding it despite being asked several times.

I would have said yes they do if he said he is certain and didn't kind of backtrack by saying "to my knowledge", so I'm going to say no one knows for sure still.


No experiment is going to prove anything, you need game data, or word from a GM or higher insuring that they're positive that it does.
You and me. That is my exact stand and argument on the subject of boss boxes. :)

Alpal- I never said Ed was an idiot. >_>

I did not bring up Bob's Armas hunt for the GBR% argument. I used that as an example for how many runs one would have to do to find a single item's droprate.

When talking about the Neudaiz GBR I only was referring to WB.

You CANNOT use personal experiance of finding items as proof of droprate boosts.

[DragonStriker]

In an older thread on the Sega forum, Edward said in one post that he can confirm that boss boxes are affected by luck and GBR %, and in another post said the same thing "to his knowledge". As far as I know he hasn't answered any other questions regarding it despite being asked several times.

I would have said yes they do if he said he is certain and didn't kind of backtrack by saying "to my knowledge", so I'm going to say no one knows for sure still.


No experiment is going to prove anything, you need game data, or word from a GM or higher insuring that they're positive that it does.

This is very true, but why shouldn't we believe him? Anyone who plays the GBRs notices differences.

[DragonStriker]

You and me. That is my exact stand and argument on the subject of boss boxes. :)

No, repeatedly you have said "No it doesn't affect" in other topics. Yes ofcourse no one can know for sure but don't back off your statements now and say "I just think no one knows for sure"

[Smidge204]

Let me put it this way. If people synthed 2 psychowands with a 99% synth rate, only 1 of every 10,000 persons would fail both of them according to the frequency rate.

On average. 1 in 10,000 on average.


Let's revisit your original claim again, because you still can't seem to get over it:


Also you have to add to that that this happened to the same player. Not just a 99% synth failed for Joe and then on a different server, the next 99% synth failed for Beth


Two different "people" (same account, but different chars.) I should ask, is this even a real account of events? Are Joe and Beth real chars of someone you know or are you just making an example?

Also, I missed "on a different server" - each server seems to have its own RNG instance, which is plainly evident by the fact that the casino's roulette wheel sequences are different for each universe. If all servers used the same RNG source they would all be the same.

That fact has no impact on my perspective of the event, but for you to claim there's a bug or bias in the RNG when the two cases you cite aren't even using the same RNG? Not buying it at all.
=Smidge=

[itellthetruth]

No, repeatedly you have said "No it doesn't affect" in other topics. Yes ofcourse no one can know for sure but don't back off your statements now and say "I just think no one knows for sure"

So you feel the 300% drop rate boost with a full party?

I don't.

If anything, 300% doesn't equate to actually being a 300% boost on boss boxes.
Especially since boss boxes are never empty.

I'd say a GBR % (if it changes it at all) may increase the rarity of objects found in the boxes to a degree. Def. not as high as 300%. Kind of like in these rare missions where these rare creatures seem to drop the same thing without ever seeing the other items they drop.

Edward is just a GM. Unless he has had a bigger role with Sega than I've seen so far, he probably doesn't know more than you and me. He has claimed many times of him having to go to links to get real answers..it should be obvious he can't always be held to his word.

[DragonStriker]

On average. 1 in 10,000 on average.


Let's revisit your original claim again, because you still can't seem to get over it:




Two different "people" (same account, but different chars.) I should ask, is this even a real account of events? Are Joe and Beth real chars of someone you know or are you just making an example?

Also, I missed "on a different server" - each server seems to have its own RNG instance, which is plainly evident by the fact that the casino's roulette wheel sequences are different for each universe. If all servers used the same RNG source they would all be the same.

That fact has no impact on my perspective of the event, but for you to claim there's a bug or bias in the RNG when the two cases you cite aren't even using the same RNG? Not buying it at all.
=Smidge=

Why are people assuming SEGA uses the same random number generator for synths and boxes? In all honesty 99% could mean 80% is SEGA really wanted it to. And either way it doesn't mean anything in regards to something that has been confirmed by the GM and extremely noticeable by the more experienced players.

[DragonStriker]

So you feel the 300% drop rate with a full party?

I don't.

If anything, 300% doesn't equate to actually being 300% on boss boxes.
Especially since boss boxes are never empty.

I'd say a GBR % (if it changes it at all) may increase the rarity of objects found in the boxes to a degree. Def. not as high as 300%.

Actually a great post, kind of what I was just hitting on in the one I was typing while you posted this. I agree the numbers could be completely made up, because I think the elemental %s aren't exact either, but even so it's still rather obvious GBR boost does indeed affect boss drops to players who play a lot. So yes I completely agree but there really isn't any denying to the fact there is some kind of difference.

Oh and thanks for bringing that up I was going to clarify.

[SuperRygar]

..... how can you justify putting this much thought into the workings of a video game? what does anyone have to gain by understanding the numbers? do you think you will unlock some hidden secret that lets you get more rares or better synth rates?

your all wasting your time/life taking these stats. regardless of how many runs you do, how much stats you collect, your number are useless. you have no idea what's really happening behind the scenes that decide what enemy drops what so it is impossible to have a controlled environment no matter how much you try. same char, same day, same mission, same luck, same everything. maybe the time of day is a factor, maybe the different spawn layouts are a factor, maybe every time they do maintenance they reset some unknown variable. the fact that you don't know such things makes your data flawed. rationalize it all you want, your simply wasting your time. shouldn't you be using your obvious intelligence for something more...substantial?

don't get me wrong, i'm not against it. do whatever you wish, free world *yay* power to you. but i hope you consider the other constructive things you could have done with the time you wasted with such a trivial pursuit

u.u

[Powder Keg]

Thing is, numbers would determine if something is worth it, or just plain curiousity knowing whether or not you're really luck or have terrible luck.

Also, a lot of us were spoiled with drop tables with rates in PSO.

[str898mustang]

We were spoiled with the drop tables of PSO but the drop rates of PSU are no where near as bad as the drop rates of PSO were.

Yasha drop rate ? 1 in 67,217
Heaven Punisher drop rate? 1 in 190,651
Handgun: Milla drop rate? 1 in 28,808
Psycho Wand drop rate? 1 in 299,594

[Keilyn]

Smidge,

I've noticed something for our information gathering....and here it goes...

Three Star Luck + Rare Mission 500% I have seen from monsters so far in Ruins A a 100% drop rate from all the monsters.

What would the difference be between 300% and 500%?

I thought on luck 3 it was around 70 - 75% (3 out of 4 enemies drop something) Under 300% GBR, but I am not sure...

Can anyone here comment on this?

[xBULLYDOGG]

In an older thread on the Sega forum, Edward said in one post that he can confirm that boss boxes are affected by luck and GBR %, and in another post said the same thing "to his knowledge". As far as I know he hasn't answered any other questions regarding it despite being asked several times.

I would have said yes they do if he said he is certain and didn't kind of backtrack by saying "to my knowledge", so I'm going to say no one knows for sure still.


No experiment is going to prove anything, you need game data, or word from a GM or higher insuring that they're positive that it does.

A word of a GM, my friend and yes I mean my friend not me, knows Edward and he supposedly told me that Ed told him that GBR% and luck DOESNT effect boss boxes, and no I'm not naive I didn't believe it nor did I not. Now you tell me there was a thread on the official forums saying that Ed informed people that GBR% does effect boss boxes. I think I know whos word I'm going to take here, and it's not my friends.


These topics need to stop being created, the people intelligent enough to notice a difference while actually playing the game aren't going to convince people like Shou. In another topic his argument was "SEGA is lazy" and "Edward is an idiot" as to why boss boxes aren't affected. I can assure you, anyone who actually plays the GBRs a lot and plays those missions outside of GBRs will tell you there is a large difference, and a noticeable one at that.

I do play GBRs religiously and as said I myself have seen a increasment of the rarity on items in boss boxes. I was also looking for someone to clarify if this was just due to me constantly running the missions, or if it was indeed due to the GBR%.