Predicted Release Dates.

[Zaix]

This thread has absolutely no purpose other than acting as a bit of a game. All you have to do is post when you think the game will come out. Winners shall receive a cookie.

I shall start with my radical prediction of very close to November 26th, 2011 Worldwide. (Nothing more than a gut feeling)

[kyuuketsuki]

Worldwide
Hah, that's a good one.

[Selphea]

Feb '12 Japan
May '12 Rest of the world except EU
Jun '12 EU

[Zaix]

I can dream.

[johnjacob]

December 21, 2011 (Japan)
January 29, 2012 (North America)
February 23, 2012 (Europe)

[tehhaxorer]

December 21, 2011 (Japan)
January 29, 2012 (North America)
February 23, 2012 (Europe)

This, simply because they said they wanted a 2011 release and this abides by that while still letting some time for translation.

[BioWarrior]

My bet would be sometime in December for japan, in which case you can bet I'm gonna spend the $20 for 2-3 day shipping for an import. Normal shipping would take over a month during December.

[Serephim]

a far more fun game would be to predict what the first argument is going to be about in this thread

[johnjacob]

a far more fun game would be to predict what the first argument is going to be about in this thread

Why do you have to go off topic!
I win

[Zaix]

a far more fun game would be to predict what the first argument is going to be about in this thread

Probably something about how long translations take but I don't really know.

[Aerilas]

As if any EU fan would wait extra time to play it if he/she could just import it from the US

[Selphea]

As if any EU fan would wait extra time to play it if he/she could just import it from the US

Yea, but game publishers still hate them for some reason =p

[Noel Vermillion]

Pretty sure it's going to be 2011 for the Japanese.

Probably Feb/Mar for US and EU.

[adam-james]

December sounds about right for Japan.

That way, they can deploy awesome Noel Rappys as part of a Christmas / New Year event that drop all kinds of good stuff, and have the US/EU users wait a year for the chance encounter them.

Sounds like SEGA.

[Mekimaru]

2011 December 31 for Japan
Mid 2012 for Us
Late 2012 for EU

Unless they put the UK with the US which would be a good idea
Cus its nearly the same tbh

[r00tabaga]

December 2011 Jpn
Summer 2012 NA/EU/AU

[Selphea]

I don't think it can possibly be a Dec 2011 release for Japan, because:


Japan's holiday season starts on Jan 1, so December will be the leave clearing/shopping month, any December release would have to be done in early December to catch the shopping crowds
They said a 2011 release, but Japanese companies tend to see that as Fiscal Year 2011, which ends in March 2012
The game is still in ALPHA! They can't possibly finish the game, do a closed and/or open beta, then send the gold DVD for mass production, then ship it to stores in the span of 2.5 months (We're in late August, and the target is early December)


Also, some case studies:

PSU:
Apr/May '06 closed beta
Aug '06 JP launch
Oct '06 NA launch
Nov '06 EU launch

Aion:
'07 KR closed beta
Nov '08 KR KR open beta & launch
Jun '09 NA/EU closed beta
Sep' 09 NA/EU open beta & launch

RIFT:
Dec '10 closed beta
Feb '11 open beta
Mar' 11 NA/EU launch

I think the strongest trend here is that a game's closed beta is usually 3 months before launch. I'll give another 3 month gap between alpha and closed beta. This means we'll probably see a closed beta 3 months later in late November, then another 3 months for the JP launch in late February to early March. This places it close to the Japanese school holidays and gives Sega around 1 month of PSO2 sales to make their Fiscal Year 2011 profits look good.

Localization is a grey area though, Aion probably has a lot more text to translate which is why it took a year. Then again English PSOBB released a year after Japan too. Also, the only media hype they've been building up so far has been limited to Facebook. I suppose optimistically they might push for a May or June release for NA, in time for summer.

[Vashyron]

The game is still in ALPHA! They can't possibly finish the game, do a closed and/or open beta, then send the gold DVD for mass production, then ship it to stores in the span of 2.5 months (We're in late August, and the target is early December)


This point though, do know that Alpha/Beta can be any stage of a game if they so desire to call it so.

Also it's not known yet about how this game will be published, possible it could be download only.

[Dinosaur]

The game is still in ALPHA! They can't possibly finish the game, do a closed and/or open beta, then send the gold DVD for mass production, then ship it to stores in the span of 2.5 months (We're in late August, and the target is early December)

FFXIV came out within a span of 3 months after the alpha.

We all know how that worked out!

[SELENNA]

Early december 11 for Japan and three months later for US.

[Selphea]

[/LIST]

This point though, do know that Alpha/Beta can be any stage of a game if they so desire to call it so.

Also it's not known yet about how this game will be published, possible it could be download only.

Maybe, but if the game was really 3 months from release, wouldn't Sega make themselves look better by calling the recent alpha a closed beta?

I also doubt Sega (or its target market) is adventurous enough for a DDL-only release of their blockbuster title, especially in a country like Japan which emphasizes packaging. That's usually the realm of small/indie studios.

And I think FFXIV had an April '10 alpha, then a July '10 closed beta and September '10 open beta and launch, around 5.5 months.

[Golto]

I'm going for march 2012 JPN. NA if they release it add 3-6 months.

[Zeota]

I think that'd depend on how old the alpha build is vs. where they are now with development. I just hope they don't rush this as much Square did FFXIV.

[Bulgereek Nookstain]

I think the strongest trend here is that a game's closed beta is usually 3 months before launch. I'll give another 3 month gap between alpha and closed beta. This means we'll probably see a closed beta 3 months later in late November, then another 3 months for the JP launch in late February to early March. You do realize that they have stated that the closed beta would be starting shortly after TGS, right? Because that's basically three weeks from now. Also, they said open beta would be shortly after that.

I'm expecting a mid-December release in Japan, unless there are major issues found during the alpha/beta tests. Everywhere else? No clue.

[Selphea]

According to this article (http://www.4gamer.net/games/120/G012075/20110726073/), the closed beta will be held after TGS, where they will be showing a playable demo. No specific timeframe was given though, not even of the beta being "shortly" after TGS. I'm guessing the TGS demo will feature the full Forest stage, including a Dragon, and at that point they will still need work on other weapons, stages and bosses before the beta.

[Bulgereek Nookstain]

I doubt they would have given it that time frame if they were planning on it being a while after TGS, but ok.

Let's just wait and see. Like I said, assuming no major problems are found in the alpha/beta, I would be surprised if the release is much after December.

[BIG OLAF]

I'm going to predict December (more specifically, "Holiday") 2011. March 2012 at the very latest.