3 three rare monsters at once?

[Necha54]

Ok so i know its more of a rarity to find three rare monster in episode 2... But there is a room in the temple with 2 lilies, 2 rappies, and a hildebear/hidelt. .... Ive found a love happy and a nar Lilly before.... But i was wondering what the odds are of finding all three

[zoulen]

It is possible, however it'll be very rare and would be a Kodak moment. I think the best rare monster run I've seen is a friend doing the Addicting Food quest and getting 3 Nar Lilly's in a single map. Unlucky for him though because none of them dropped anything.

If you're seeking a percentage of that happening, however it's impossible to actually figure out.

[Necha54]

Well i believe i can do it cuz i started a new ranger and my first runs through caves and my first lily was a nar lily.... Haha So....

[SStrikerR]

The belief is that on versions prior to BB the rare monster appearance rate is 1/512. So in that case, it can be calculated to 7.4505806 * 10^-9, which is 7,450,580,600. Obviously the more enemies there are the better your chances are, but...yeah good luck with that rate.

If you're talking BB, rare monsters work on an entirely different system that I'm not getting into.

[spoiler-box] I'm extremely tired and used google to do that, so the math may be off. Sue me and do it yourself if it really matters. [/spoiler-box]

[TrueChaos]

i once has 2 Nar Lillies in the same room in Caves once. saw i pic of someone who was in Temple and had an Ob Lilly and a Torr in the same room

[Link1275]

I approximate your chances of seeing all 3 at the exact same time are [spoiler-box].1111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111 11111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111 11111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111 11111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111 11111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111 11111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111 11111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111 11111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111 11111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111 1111111[/spoiler-box]

[MAD1b]

I remember once while hunting the Lavis Cannon on my Redria in Addicting Food, I found two red slimes at the same time. If I was lucky enough to see that, why is it that I still don't have a Lavis Cannon? Haha.

[Mitz]

Had Del Rappy and Pazuzu at the same time once but never 3 rates at once.

[GCoffee]

If the chance of a rare enemy appearing is indeed 1/512, then the only other number we need is the amount of enemies (with a rare version) that spawn in said room, which in your case is 5; the rest is easy math:

The chance of a single rare enemy appearing is 5/512, logically.
The chance of two rare enemies appearing is (5/512)*(4/512) = 5/65536 = 0.0000762939453125
The chance of three rare enemies appearing is (5/512)*(4/512)*(3/512) = 15/33554432 = 4.470348358154297×10-7

And as bonus:

The chance of four rare enemies appearing is (5/512)*(4/512)*(3/512)*(2/512) = 15/8589934592 = 1.746229827404×10-9
and for five rare enemies appearing (5/512)*(4/512)*(3/512)*(2/512)*(1/512) = 15/4398046511104 = 3.410605131648481×10-12


...Happy hunting, lol

[T0m]

Your math's a little bit off.



The chance of a single rare enemy appearing is 5/512, logically.
Yeah that's almost right. (It's a little more complicated and should be 1-(511/512)⁵ or 100% minus the chance of a normal appearing to the fifth. It works out as 0,00977 against 0,00973, so the difference is negligible).
But it's downhill from there ^^;


and for five rare enemies appearing (5/512)*(4/512)*(3/512)*(2/512)*(1/512) = 15/4398046511104 = 3.410605131648481×10-12


The chance of all 5 of them being rare is (with a rare monster chance of 1/512) simply (1/512)⁵, and not 5!(1/512)⁵. Striker already posted the correct number.
The reason is that in the first case there are 5 different possible outcomes that give you 1 rare out of 5 monsters, but there is only one single possible outcome that gets you 5 out of 5 rare monsters.

Let's reduce it to 1/6 to make it easier: dice. With two dice the chance of rolling a six is almost but not exactly 2*1/6. With six dice, this logic would give a probability of 6 * 1/6=1 of getting a six. And clearly -to anyone ever playing with dice- this isn't right.

With two dice the probability is 1-(5/6)²=0,306, and with six dice that is 1-(5/6)⁶=0,665.


...What? I lost everyone's interest right off the bat with the word "math"?

[GCoffee]

"Easy math", I should not write such things in the future! I just called a friend (math student) and he laughed his ass off about my calculations lol. Well, that is certainly suuuper embarrassing for me; lecture learned. Kudos, your calculations are the right one, of course lol. At least I understand them?

[SStrikerR]

"Easy math", I should not write such things in the future! I just called a friend (math student) and he laughed his ass off about my calculations lol. Well, that is certainly suuuper embarrassing for me; lecture learned. Kudos, your calculations are the right one, of course lol. At least I understand them?

No such thing as easy math. I hate it with a passion. I, personally, didn't undestand Tom's calculations at all. Just mine. But either way, you basically have no chance at seeing 3 rares at once. If you do, play the lottery. The end.

[dooby613]

It's not uncommon as long as you are in a good place.

[T0m]

Huh, funny. Before this thread got bumped I never noticed the title says 3 three rare monsters at once. Shame, I would have enjoyed making fun of that!

In any case,

It's not uncommon as long as you are in a good place.

So what would you count as a good place and what is your definition of not uncommon, dooby?

[Omega-z]

dooby613 is right though it can happen. it's just you have to bust your balls to get it, no casual playing allowed. Temple is the best place to get 3 or 3 different one's at the same time. But I wouldn't recommend this as it will require lack of sleep (30 mins - 2hrs max), with possibly skipped meals(eating 1 time as a snack food) and Doing the pipe trick for at least 6-8 months straight. And those are the minimal requirements. It's awesome to see but by that time you do you don't care and I didn't have the means to be able to get a pic so it's pointless to do. I gotten it 3 times two times offline and one time online. Online was the last time, it was one of the temple's room's that has a circle middle you can walk in. It had a Torr a Ob (thought it was a narr but it was the wrong one it was the yellow striped one and not the red one) and two Easter rappies since it was during Easter, If holiday monster's count as rares.

[T0m]

Wait, wait!
Hang on! So let me get this straight: You went 6 to 8 months straight doing the pipe trick, presumably to get these rare monsters together? 6 To 8 months, and when you get it you say it was pointless because you did not have the means to get a picture? You were doing this for at least half a year and you could not get a camera or a celphone during that time, just in case? Even though apparently that was the point for you?!
Fine, sure.
And then you go another 6 to 8 months, forgoing sleep and possibly meals again, then get 3 or more rare creatures in the room and still have no means of taking a picture? So again you consider it pointless?!
And then, then you do it a third time?! You are saying you went a year and a half to two full years on a "30 mins - 2hrs max, with possibly skipped meals eating 1time as a snack food" regiment, only to not have the means to take a picture making the whole thing a pointless exercise for you? Really?

What kind of life are you leading that you would even do that to yourself?

In any case, nowhere in this thread does someone say it would be impossible to get multiple rare monsters. There's even a fairly concise break down of the odds of this happening based on what is known of the game and actual statistics. So, how did you take that as anyone saying it couldn't happen?

Did you maybe pad the numbers from your mathematics just a little? Are you saying if I were to have 3 hours of daily sleep, it would be impossible for me to see three rare creatures at once? What if I had just 30 minutes, but didn't skip any meals? Still impossible? Or just impossible within at least 6-8 months straight?
:wacko:

[Omega-z]

NO, you missed understood it wasn't 1.5 yrs. Just 6-8 month's and I wasn't focus on doing that it just happen to do it three times in that amount of time. So it was random and I was ill-prepared for it. Yeah It was stupid, Thing's we do in our youth lol. But now no way I'll ever do it.
Oh, Sorry I didn't mean to make it sound like it was impossible it total is, it's not just something that just comes along easily. My 6-8 month's is just a premise of how harsh it can really be at times, But it's totally random and can be there the next time you play.

[VioletSkye]

It's taken me almost 7 years but I finally managed to do it lol.

http://s282141078.onlinehome.us/rappyholiday.jpg

Kidding of course :p I decided to finally try out Blue Burst (I messed around with it years ago when it was first released but never really got anywhere with it) so I'm playing around and having fun and this thread caught my eye :)

[SStrikerR]

NO, you missed understood it wasn't 1.5 yrs. Just 6-8 month's and I wasn't focus on doing that it just happen to do it three times in that amount of time. So it was random and I was ill-prepared for it. Yeah It was stupid, Thing's we do in our youth lol. But now no way I'll ever do it.
Oh, Sorry I didn't mean to make it sound like it was impossible it total is, it's not just something that just comes along easily. My 6-8 month's is just a premise of how harsh it can really be at times, But it's totally random and can be there the next time you play.

I'm sorry, but this is complete bull and anybody with a brain knows it. We already provided the odds of it occuring, and there's no way you saw 3 rare enemies in the same room on 3 different occasions. You can defend yourself all you want, but not many people are gullible enough to believe that.

[dooby613]

MOST servers now days have rare monster events and that is fairly common. If you are assuming all servers are alike you'd be dead wrong.

[SStrikerR]

MOST servers now days have rare monster events and that is fairly common. If you are assuming all servers are alike you'd be dead wrong.

And this topic was asking for the LEGITIMATE CHANCE for finding 3 at once, which was given. We weren't talking about servers with boosted rates/events, they don't count.

[dooby613]

I have a hard time imaging it happening outside of one of those events...maybe see it once or so.

[Omega-z]

lol True I didn't have proof of it, coming from a guy playing PSO half alseep on a GC not tring to proof a Thread 10 yrs later that it can happen. :wacko: Just take it as a gain of salt of experience and that's all, There's no reason to argue.

[T0m]

, There's no reason to argue.
There also was no reason for your first post in this thread, so lets call it even.

Just take it as a gain of salt of experience and that's all
I don't even understand what youŕe trying to say, so here is a cow !!? :cowsleep:

[Omega-z]

T0m the reason to the Post is, Even tho we have Stat's we still don't know the process or the time needed to get the results.

I just related my account of my Hardship of it. Now it's up to you if you believe it or not that's your thing, But I know it happened. So there was no reason for the comment.

Oh the "Gain of Salt" statement must be a American Saying since you don't understand.

[Ithildin]

Oh the "Gain of Salt" statement must be a American Saying since you don't understand.

Do you mean grain of salt or pinch of salt? I believe it's an old Latin saying.

[T0m]

No, Ithildin, he is very adamand that it is a "Gain of salt". A gain of salt of experience. Omega-z said it twice.
And it's "a American Saying", so you probably wouldn't understand it anyway, Ithildin. ;)

[Omega-z]

The "take it as a grain of salt" lol I goofed with the "R". Mean's "not to read into it much" or in a better way " It's a fancy way to say ...MEH" .:)

[Nephlymio]

PLZ do concider I'm french before reading ...

I think we got off the main subject.

At start, I think we should concider appearance chance of a rare monster (before BB) which is 1/512. this is actually pretty often if you concider you are looking for only 1 rare monster at a time. The more you want at the same time ( or you just actually run into a room with plenty of rare monsters ) the more it becomes obvious that it is just plain luck.

now what's the REAL odds???

mmm ... 2 six-sided dices and you will understand a lot... let's say you want double sixes :

both dices has 1/6 to be a 6 ... so 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/(6^2) = 1/36

basic maths...

add up a die, now you want three 6s : so 1/(6^3) = 1/216

let's say I want only two 6s out of three dices :

when you had 2 dices, you had 1 chance of getting it
now if you add another die, just take it as a 6 ( like if it was already accurate) and check how many times it could happen that another one would be a 6
in this case, there is 2 other dices, so it could happen 2 more times.

so 3/ (6^2) = 3/216 = 1/72
it will not be 3/ (6^3) because you only concider 2 dices out of 3 and not all three of them.

FOR AS LONG as you want ALL things to be the same results such as all 6s out of x dices, there will always be only 1 possible way that it will happen.

Table of ODDS

x . . . 1 . . . .2. . . .3. . . .4. . . .5 . . . .6 . . . .7. . . .8. . . . 9 . . .10
1 . . . 1
2 . . . 2. . . . 1
3 . . . 3. . . . 3 . . . 1
4 . . . 4. . . . 6. . . .4. . . .1
5 . . . 5. . . .10 . . 10. . . 5 . . . 1
6 . . . 6. . . .15 . . 20 . . 15. . . 6. . . . 1
7 . . . 7. . . .21 . . 35 . . 35 . . 21. . . .7 . . . 1
8 . . . 8. . . .28 . . 56 . . 70 . . 56. . . 28. . . 8 . . . .1
9 . . . 9. . . .36 . . 84. . 126 . 126 . . 84 . . 36. . . .9 . . . 1
10. . 10. . . 45. . 120. .210 . 252. . 210 . 120 . . 45 . . 10 . . . 1

How to use this and it looks like it has a partern or something?!

THE FIRST COLUMN is actually how many objects you are playing with (concidering that they are all similar like not having 4 sided dices and 6 sided dices at the same time...) It does work in this case for any monster in PSO cause they all have the same odds of appearing as a rare.

All other columns (not x) are how many are accurate (rare monster in pso case)

Let's say we had 2 rares out of 3 monsters
THEN Choose the value LINE 3 (# of monsters) COLUMN 2 (# accurate rares) which is 3
take that number up like this . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3/?
then put the odds of appearance of a single object down: . . 3/512
then put it powered by the column : . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 / (512^2)
You now have 3/262144 of getting 2 rare monsters out of 3 that could be rare...

Logical since you have three times more chance to get 2 rare monsters out of 3 then of 2

Now what ... you want that room of 9 lilies to be all mil lilies

LINE 9 Column ^9 = 1 / (512^9)
so 1 / 2,417851639229258e+24 <---- Oo
so 1 / 2417851639229258349412352
I guess I could have over 9000! Yasha before that happening!!!

for # of telepipe needed take the 1/x upside down like X/1 and divide by # of monsters times about 20 seconds for a pipe in and out and you get the time in seconds you will need to actually encounter that...

9 lilies ... concidering you actually do telepipe all year long without sleeping and never blinking eyes... you could pipe 1576800 times a year * 9 monsters
14191200 monsters seen a year... it would take 170376827839031114,311147189... years to actually achieve seeing this... so all the planet is piping
8 000 000 000 people... it would still take about 21297103 years of telepiping to actually make a single person on earth playing 24H a day to see 9 Mil Lilies out of 9 in a single room ... LOLLLLLLLZ


I want a picture of that, better start right now! LOLL