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View Full Version : JP PSO2 Falz EQ Timing Theory *Updated*



CelestialBlade
Dec 12, 2012, 04:53 PM
Hey guys. Well my theory held for the first day, but it seems the pattern will change daily. I still believe there to be some sort of pattern to the Ship rotation to ensure even distribution, but it would be a lot of work for minimal gain to decipher and extrapolate whatever code they're using for EQs. Just check out the Twitterbot at the bottom of this post to track the Falz EQ whenever you like!

Hope this helped at least a little bit :) Archived my data from 12/12 in the spoiler box in response to a 12/13 EQ proving my theory false beyond 12/12.

[spoiler-box]Correct me on any wrong information here.

The Falz EQ occurred at 6am and 11am EST earlier today, right? The latest one just happened at 4pm...in other words, five-hour intervals. I wonder if that's planned...and if it's the case, we'll be seeing the next one at 9pm. This would help in farming stones significantly if these could at least be planned events. Time will tell on whether or not I'm right on this.

If true, extrapolating out the schedule, the times would look like this before repeating (times are GMT-5):

12-Dec
6:00 AM
11:00 AM
4:00 PM
9:00 PM

13-Dec
2:00 AM
7:00 AM
12:00 PM
5:00 PM
10:00 PM

14-Dec
3:00 AM
8:00 AM
1:00 PM
6:00 PM
11:00 PM

15-Dec
4:00 AM
9:00 AM
2:00 PM
7:00 PM

16-Dec
12:00 AM
5:00 AM
10:00 AM
3:00 PM
8:00 PM

17-Dec
1:00 AM[/spoiler-box]

EDIT: Holding true so far, but if you want to track the Falz EQ across all Ships, just follow this Twitterbot: https://twitter.com/pso2_emg_bot
Thanks to eharima for the link.

terrell707
Dec 12, 2012, 04:55 PM
If anything, its probably appearing so much to give everyone a chance at playing it because its so new. It'll probably become more rare as the days go on.

gigawuts
Dec 12, 2012, 04:57 PM
Yeah, they're probably trying to avoid a case of ship 2's 2-3 day brand new banther EMQ absence.

I'm hoping they start scheduling it every 8-10 hours after a while, to cover all timezones over the course of a few days.

CelestialBlade
Dec 12, 2012, 04:59 PM
As long as it's on a schedule, I'll be happy. I just want the ability to predict when these show up.

Z-0
Dec 12, 2012, 05:23 PM
The entirety of the Falz EQ has only occured twice on Ship 2, not thrice. The second Falz Emergency Quest was the Arms Quest on its own; Elder did not follow it because it was part of a large-scale operation.

I believe it's completely random.

EDIT: I'm also pretty sure the Arms EQ happened 4 hours after the initial planned time, not 5. The other time was probably someone else on another ship.

gigawuts
Dec 12, 2012, 05:26 PM
The entirety of the Falz EQ has only occured twice on Ship 2, not thrice. The second Falz Emergency Quest was the Arms Quest on its own; Elder did not follow it because it was part of a large-scale operation.

I believe it's completely random.

EDIT: I'm also pretty sure the Arms EQ happened 4 hours after the initial planned time, not 5. The other time was probably someone else on another ship.

The players need to deal enough damage to unlock elder falz, so they probably just didn't meet the goal that second time. The quest seems to be an hour long, or possibly 30 minutes for arms and another 30 or something for elder when elder is unlocked. I definitely got into elder at 32 past the hour this time, and could not get in about 4 minutes prior, whereas after the maintenance I got into elder at 26 past.

Z-0
Dec 12, 2012, 05:28 PM
^ No, that was not the case. This other Falz EQ had the normal emergency quest announcement (the one that goes with Banther, Vardha, etc.) There were also NO announcements during the quest telling us our progress.

It was not the full-scale Falz EQ.

BIG OLAF
Dec 12, 2012, 05:35 PM
I really don't even want to log off now, in fear I'll miss it yet again. I'm pretty sure its appearance is just random, like any other EQ, though.

gravityvx
Dec 12, 2012, 05:51 PM
The second time Falz appeared almost every block was full, I don't know how much players need to meet with the ship almost being at max capacity but I would not put it aside that we possibly failed the second emergency which is why we did not get a second form. It's always a possibility until there are actual facts put down over mere speculation.

Tenlade
Dec 12, 2012, 06:11 PM
I'm willing to bet it was just a glitch and the falz arms shouldn't be showing up as a regular emergency mission.

gigawuts
Dec 12, 2012, 06:18 PM
^ No, that was not the case. This other Falz EQ had the normal emergency quest announcement (the one that goes with Banther, Vardha, etc.) There were also NO announcements during the quest telling us our progress.

It was not the full-scale Falz EQ.

Oh, well this is interesting. It sounds like the elder version is forced, and the arms only version could be a new ordinary EMQ.

I likey.

The Walrus
Dec 12, 2012, 06:39 PM
I kinda hope they make a regular mission for Falz at some point. Like later on when the EQ becomes rare

Syklo
Dec 12, 2012, 06:41 PM
The first time Falz was approaching, it trolled us so hard.

Me and my friend were hanging out in my room, waiting for it to be active.
Once it activated, well, the blocks we were in were full
So we were trapped, IN OUR OWN ROOM!
sadface

CelestialBlade
Dec 12, 2012, 08:45 PM
Looks like my theory stands for now. Falz in 15.

terrell707
Dec 12, 2012, 09:01 PM
Looks like my theory stands for now. Falz in 15.

Wow.. I think your theory is right lol

Golto
Dec 12, 2012, 09:32 PM
Ship 9 was trolled by a volcanic caves eq.

Z-0
Dec 12, 2012, 09:49 PM
No... again, the second Falz EQ did not occur 5 hours after the first, BUT rather 3 hours afterwards, and was under a normal EQ announcement and was only the Arms (Elder did not follow because it wasn't a "Dark Falz is Approaching" announcement).

Here's a log of us discovering it was Falz after the announcement:

[spoiler-box]2012-12-12T14:00:31 179 GUILD 10816455 Piranha IV falz
2012-12-12T14:00:33 180 GUILD 10537616 Zynetic wut?
2012-12-12T14:00:37 181 GUILD 10537616 Zynetic seriously??
2012-12-12T14:00:38 182 GUILD 10816455 Piranha IV @#!@ brb, wtf
2012-12-12T14:00:41 183 GUILD 10816455 Piranha IV well it's just his arms[/spoiler-box]

Note that I am GMT+/-0, so the first Falz EQ occurred at 11:00:00, which is 20:00:00 JST. This was 3 hours after that, not 5. After that, Xmas was on at 17:00:00 (3 hours later), and then Falz was on again at 21:00:00 (4 hours after the Xmas EQ, 7 hours after the Arms EQ).

Sorry to spoil your fun, but it's random.

[This is on Ship 2, of course]

Crystal_Shard
Dec 12, 2012, 09:52 PM
Oh, well this is interesting. It sounds like the elder version is forced, and the arms only version could be a new ordinary EMQ.

I likey.

There was a very distinct "Falz" in the announcement when we first took part in the EMQ, not to mention a yellow coloured announcement, previously used to announce the fixed timed Christmas EMQ, both of which were missing during the second round. Initially I'd assumed that the second Arms only run was a regular planet based EMQ, but was quickly disabused of that notion. I think it's accurate to say there really are two versions of the EMQ running.

Just curious, but has the full version shown up at all since the first time at 8pm JST yesterday?

Z-0
Dec 12, 2012, 09:53 PM
Yes, the full version just showed up (52 minutes before this post), and 5 hours before that at 21:00 GMT+0.

It didn't have the yellow banner that the first apparently did.

gigawuts
Dec 12, 2012, 09:55 PM
And just did full blown elder falz again right now. Got into the arms with 1 minute to spare, checked the quest listing to see no EMQ available (got in just in time), and by the time we cleared the arms elder falz was listed.

[Ayumi]
Dec 12, 2012, 09:58 PM
Looks like my theory stands for now. Falz in 15.

I was just about to say this.

Also I fought Phase 2 as well.

Crystal_Shard
Dec 12, 2012, 10:01 PM
Heh. Would be great if a few rounds show up later when I reach home. Could use another few chances to get an Elder Rod rather than be trolled by more ranger weapons. Stupid patented Sega Desire Proximity Sensor(tm). :P

Probably, the yellow banner was just to announce whenever a special EMQ is confirmed to appear. Maybe it'll do the same at the same time today as well.

Either way, guess I'll break out the 50% drop rate up tickets if he comes up.

CelestialBlade
Dec 12, 2012, 10:11 PM
No... again, the second Falz EQ did not occur 5 hours after the first, BUT rather 3 hours afterwards, and was under a normal EQ announcement and was only the Arms (Elder did not follow because it wasn't a "Dark Falz is Approaching" announcement).

Here's a log of us discovering it was Falz after the announcement:

[spoiler-box]2012-12-12T14:00:31 179 GUILD 10816455 Piranha IV falz
2012-12-12T14:00:33 180 GUILD 10537616 Zynetic wut?
2012-12-12T14:00:37 181 GUILD 10537616 Zynetic seriously??
2012-12-12T14:00:38 182 GUILD 10816455 Piranha IV @#!@ brb, wtf
2012-12-12T14:00:41 183 GUILD 10816455 Piranha IV well it's just his arms[/spoiler-box]

Note that I am GMT+/-0, so the first Falz EQ occurred at 11:00:00, which is 20:00:00 JST. This was 3 hours after that, not 5. After that, Xmas was on at 17:00:00 (3 hours later), and then Falz was on again at 21:00:00 (4 hours after the Xmas EQ, 7 hours after the Arms EQ).

Sorry to spoil your fun, but it's random.

[This is on Ship 2, of course]
Not sure what you mean, I'm on Ship 02 and did a Falz EQ at 4pm EST and another at 9pm. 5 hours. There wasn't anything in between.

Bellion
Dec 12, 2012, 10:14 PM
I believe he is referring to the Falz Arms only EQ. Although I thought it was at 11AM EST which would fit perfectly. Maybe it was actually 10AM EST, I forgot.

Edit: Now that I think about it, it couldn't have been 10 or 11 AM EST. I remember ordering food at the time and I was able to pick it up and I did partake in the full duration of the Falz Arms only EQ. >_> That would throw off the 5 hour intervals. Maybe it can be 5 or 10 hour intervals between the Falz Elder EQs.

CelestialBlade
Dec 12, 2012, 10:16 PM
I believe he is referring to the Falz Arms only EQ. Although I thought it was at 11AM EST which would fit perfectly. Maybe it was actually 10AM EST, I forgot.
I wasn't on at 11 so I'm not sure. I fought Elder for both the 4pm and 9pm ones, so I dunno. Regardless, even if it's not the full one every time, it's definitely following a pattern thus far.

eharima
Dec 12, 2012, 10:33 PM
Errrr.... you can just check here..

https://mobile.twitter.com/pso2_emg_bot

CelestialBlade
Dec 12, 2012, 10:53 PM
Errrr.... you can just check here..

https://mobile.twitter.com/pso2_emg_bot
And here I was saying how they should have an out-of-game alert system XD Thank you, this solves everything.

eharima
Dec 12, 2012, 11:01 PM
Ha? Did you never think its weird that ship 2 got FUCKING RAMMO when falz came up during jp hours?
I know the first time slot was on the official site, but there seems to be numerous players who just log on for eq then log off ;-;
I was always like wtf how they know? Then I was like ahhhh that makes sense www
Enjoy!
Also handily collates data from all ships!

Tomeeboy
Dec 12, 2012, 11:26 PM
Great thread, thanks for posting this. Looks like the timing is accurate so far. This thread has been highlighted on the front page story:

http://www.pso-world.com/news/02499-phantasy-star-online-2-jp-december-12th-update-dark-falz-pyroxene-shop

Alenoir
Dec 13, 2012, 12:50 AM
The Falz Arm-only EM happened on 9AM EST for 12/12, by the way. The 11AM one was a different one.

MetalDude
Dec 13, 2012, 01:55 AM
Well, it happened at 4PM and 9PM. However, I'm not seeing an alert pop up again for him and it's almost 2AM...

So maybe not.

Resanoca
Dec 13, 2012, 01:58 AM
Don't really see why they'd set this on a timer anyway. lol

gigawuts
Dec 13, 2012, 01:59 AM
We had a feeling that schedule would only last 24 hours. Now I'm hoping they keep it scheduled, but just on a longer interval.

MetalDude
Dec 13, 2012, 02:02 AM
Yeah, looking over the twitter times, nothing's consistent.

As for having a set schedule? Considering he has the best drops along with the Iritista Stones, it'd be kind of nice to know when you can and cannot get on for such a major event...

Kirine
Dec 13, 2012, 02:03 AM
And here I was saying how they should have an out-of-game alert system XD Thank you, this solves everything.

Seems useful.

However it seems for ship 2, the 5 hour between no longer applies. Interesting theory at least.

Syklo
Dec 13, 2012, 03:06 AM
It's been occuring much more frequently on ship 8.

already fought falz 3 times today (in my timezone)

Meji
Dec 13, 2012, 03:24 AM
I'm a little saddened you can't battle him whenever you like (because I literally could do it all day!), but I guess that's what makes him even more special.

CelestialBlade
Dec 13, 2012, 05:27 AM
Well, even if it's supposedly not consistent anymore, at least the twitter thing helps. Again, I don't care what the interval is as long as I can somehow predict the EQ so I don't have to be online 24/7 or anything.

And woo, front page! :D

Kirine
Dec 13, 2012, 07:26 AM
I wonder when the next Falz fight on ship 02 wil be!

Goukezitsu
Dec 13, 2012, 07:31 AM
You just missed it by an hour and a half It happened @ 6am on ship 2. It's possible it might follow the same schedule daily? Only time will tell @ 11am

Bellion
Dec 13, 2012, 07:38 AM
Huh...was it the whole Falz fight or just the arms?

Edit: According to the twitter bot, it looks like it was just the arms since it lacks”(ダークファルズ)”。

vPharaohv
Dec 13, 2012, 07:41 AM
It ended up being the entire fight.

Bellion
Dec 13, 2012, 07:43 AM
Then I'm an idiot since I did log in at x:25 and decided to log off. ._.

vPharaohv
Dec 13, 2012, 07:56 AM
XD that sucks man! I was skeptical about there being the entire fight too because of that tweet. Maybe whether there is a phase 2 depends on performance in phase 1 for those situations?

Bellion
Dec 13, 2012, 08:13 AM
At 9AM EST yesterday, there was an arms only EQ. There were definitely enough destroyed arms. It didn't have the Dark Falz was approaching message but just a normal EQ message.

Also, when I logged on earlier today, I didn't even receive the emergency EQ message even though I saw the arm quest at the counter. If only I had missed the arms only EQ yesterday. Ah well, I'll get over it. I'm still getting either that Craft Plosion or Flame Visit, eventually.

CelestialBlade
Dec 13, 2012, 08:15 AM
XD that sucks man! I was skeptical about there being the entire fight too because of that tweet. Maybe whether there is a phase 2 depends on performance in phase 1 for those situations?
That's how I've understood it. I think it's always worth sticking around until at least x:30, especially because clearly we all don't fully understand the mechanics of this fight. Just go nuts fighting the arms regardless of the system message and see what happens, I'd personally rather not rely on that of it could cost me a shot at Elder.

My extrapolation is certainly invalid now, but if you guys are saying there was one at 6am, I'm also curious if today will follow the same timing. Keep an eye out for patterns as the day goes on because clearly something's up in the single-day scope. It would make sense for this to have a pattern to ensure even Ship EQ distribution. Most of all, I hope this thread helps some of you find more stones/rare-hunt, even if the pattern does change.

Alenoir
Dec 13, 2012, 12:35 PM
I think there was a Dark Falz EM at 10AM EST today, I didn't get the time to confirm it before going to work. If that's the case though, that kinda went against the 5 hour theory. D:

CelestialBlade
Dec 13, 2012, 12:42 PM
Yep. If I remember from the Twitterbot it was indeed 10am.

I'll take being right for one day :lol: Least we have some sort of alert system. Going to edit my OP to save confusion.

Alenoir
Dec 13, 2012, 06:47 PM
3pm EST something happened, not sure which EM.

7pm EST gonna be Falz.

Temprus
Dec 13, 2012, 07:52 PM
And 7pm EST was indeed Falz. ^.^

BIG OLAF
Dec 13, 2012, 08:33 PM
So, wait, this is on an actual schedule? Or are we seeing coincidences?

Z-0
Dec 13, 2012, 08:33 PM
Seeing coincidences.

It's random.

CelestialBlade
Dec 13, 2012, 08:50 PM
I still think there's a pattern of some sort. Complete randomness would be pretty dumb considering how a couple of ships get the EQ at any given time, and the distribution is pretty even. The pattern changes daily at minimum though, so it's best to just watch the Twitterbot rather than decipher it every day.

The Walrus
Dec 14, 2012, 11:42 AM
Welp, another Dark Falz down on ship 10

Gatotheoriginal
Dec 14, 2012, 12:01 PM
There's ids again?

eharima
Dec 14, 2012, 12:24 PM
no, just secret photon fortune wwwwwww

Yden
Dec 14, 2012, 08:12 PM
I still think there's a pattern of some sort. Complete randomness would be pretty dumb considering how a couple of ships get the EQ at any given time, and the distribution is pretty even. The pattern changes daily at minimum though, so it's best to just watch the Twitterbot rather than decipher it every day.

Well the problem is you're thinking like a logical human being. Game devs for MMOs tend to do the stupidest things (in the players eyes) in order to extend the shelf life of their game. Look at end game dungeons in other MMOs. You need a large party to do the dungeons, the bosses only drop 1 or 2 for the group of 10+ players to fight among each other to get, the drops are randomized so even if the other 9 players have their item, yours might not drop for countless boss kills, and on top of all that there's a limit to how many times the dungeon can be run is limited based on time.

Alenoir
Dec 15, 2012, 02:10 AM
I'm pretty sure SEGA did ramp up the chance of a Dark Falz EM happening more than anything else. This week, anyways.

Anyways, another day gone, no pattern. It's probably randomized by now.