Possible Drop Rate for Dark Falz 11* Weapons [THEORY]

[Meji]

So, I found an interesting image on PSO2-Uploader.
This shows items dropped from Falz Elder, calculated into %.
Note that these charts do not include Meseta or Falz Stones. Some of the drops have also been "cut off" from the chart, since it can only display 30 items. Actual % might be a little lower than the one we've calculated on.

[SPOILER-BOX]http://www.pso2-uploader.info/uploda/src/up60672.jpg[/SPOILER-BOX]

For those who cannot see the image.
[SPOILER-BOX]http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h53/Sodisna/up60672.jpg[/SPOILER-BOX]



So, after taking a quick look at the graph, 11* weapons has a approx ~0,003% chance of dropping.
Adding all those together, that's a total of ~0,02% to find any of the 11* weapons.

Now, let's do some math with Lucky Rise and Rare Boosters:
Keep in mind that no one really know how these boosters actually work. This is just a theory based on rumors on how they "should" work.



Getting an 11* = 0,02%
Getting an 11* with 350% Rare Boost = 0,02% + (0,02*3,5) = 0,09%
Getting an 11* with 350% Rare Boost & 30% Lucky Rise (items drop 30% more) = 0,09 + (0,09*0,3) = 0,117%
So if you get 9 non-meseta/stone drops from Falz with these boosters, there's approximately 1% chance one of these items will be an 11*, if you're running with 350% Boosters & 30% Lucky Rise.
Divide that by 6 (1% / 6 = 0,167%), and you'll have the odds of you finding that specific 11* you actually want.


Nice drop rates? I'm actually not quite sure.
Feel free to discuss and share other theories in here. I'm eager to find out more!

Other theories:

In my opinion, the "Lucky Rise" part shouldn't be separated and should be added to the 350% boosters to make it a 380% overall boost. I don't think it comes on top of the rest, it's not a different boost than the Drop Boost +250% item.
This would make a rate = 0.02 + 0.02 * 3.8 = 0.096.


And I want to add that untekked rares almost definitely do not count in the rare item listing, as "tested" when some guy around here saw a friend find a boxed psycho wand. The number of psycho wands on the quest item list did not increase the next day, or at all during the following week.

[Rien]

I don't know.

Some calculation on 12* weapons (Psycho Wand and Ely Sion) from Falz, though, turns up as 15 over 1 billion (with no boosters)

[EvilMag]

It's hard to say what the rates are considering this game is using a very flawed RNG. It's pretty much all or nothing. It wouldn't surprise me if they just reused PSO DC's RNG for this game.

[Alisha]

correct me if i'm wrong but dont stones have to fail before those can drop? making the drop rate for those more complicated than what you see here.

[Saffran]

Lucky Rise 30%? Does such a thing actually exist?

[Meji]

Lucky Rise 30%? Does such a thing actually exist?3 Lucky Rise units (5%*3), and Mr.Umbra's rod with Lucky Rise and Temptation (5% + 10%) = 30% Lucky Rise.

[fay]

And I know someone with a psycho wand too...
And to make it worse, being a hunter means it collects dust in his box with no way to sell trade it.

[Arada]

So, I found an interesting image on PSO2-Uploader.



Getting an 11* = 0,02%
Getting an 11* with 350% Rare Boost = 0,02% + (0,02*3,5) = 0,09%
Getting an 11* with 350% Rare Boost & 30% Lucky Rise (items drop 30% more) = 0,09 + (0,09*0,3) = 0,117%
So if you get 9 non-meseta/stone drops from Falz with these boosters, there's approximately 1% chance one of these items will be an 11*, if you're running with 350% Boosters & 30% Lucky Rise.
Divide that by 6 (1% / 6 = 0,167%), and you'll have the odds of you finding that specific 11* you actually want.



In my opinion, the "Lucky Rise" part shouldn't be separated and should be added to the 350% boosters to make it a 380% overall boost. I don't think it comes on top of the rest, it's not a different boost than the Drop Boost +250% item.
This would make a rate = 0.02 + 0.02 * 3.8 = 0.096.

[Shinamori]

For those who cannot see the image.
[SPOILER-BOX]http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h53/Sodisna/up60672.jpg[/SPOILER-BOX]

[Gardios]

correct me if i'm wrong but dont stones have to fail before those can drop? making the drop rate for those more complicated than what you see here.

Did they release the drop chart for Falz in the guide?

[Zalana]

It's hard to say what the rates are considering this game is using a very flawed RNG. It's pretty much all or nothing. It wouldn't surprise me if they just reused PSO DC's RNG for this game.

I wouldn't go as far as saying that but, yes it does need some improvement. Stuff is actually findable here at least compared to PSODC.

[Z-0]

You can't really grab drop rates from the Quest Records unless non-rares are completely separate from rares, as the Quest Records cannot show very many items.

[jooozek]

I wouldn't go as far as saying that but, yes it does need some improvement. Stuff is actually findable here at least compared to PSODC.

right, because we are still in 2000

[Meji]

You can't really grab drop rates from the Quest Records unless non-rares are completely separate from rares, as the Quest Records cannot show very many items.I believe the full list is shown on Elder though. As far as I know, no items are "cut off" due to the limit.

[gigawuts]

In my opinion, the "Lucky Rise" part shouldn't be separated and should be added to the 350% boosters to make it a 380% overall boost. I don't think it comes on top of the rest, it's not a different boost than the Drop Boost +250% item.
This would make a rate = 0.02 + 0.02 * 3.8 = 0.096.

This depends on how they work the math.

I actually question if it even influences rares. The same way untekked boosts merely boost the proportion of rares you find that are untekked, Lucky Rise may merely boost all non-rare items. It wouldn't be the first time Sega misled us with poor wording, intentional or otherwise.

But conspiracy theory aside, based on the wording alone it seems to describe a boost to item droprate. Let's just assume it does boost rares. That's 1.3x everything. For the case of boss crystals, there is a set minimum of items based on parts you've broken and points you've accrued via kills in a quest (falz works differently, arms seem to count as "kills," boosting the main falz drops but also adding their own drops). Why is this significant? Well, these drops will always appear, but they still may not actually be items. A boss crystal will roll to determine if you get an item. If yes it determines what kind. If no it just drops meseta.

Meaning the 30% boost may overwrite some of the meseta. Okay.

These extra 30% drops (on average, this is all chance) would have an equal probability of being rares as the other ordinary non-luckyrise drops.

Everything I've posted here is all stuff I've found either on JP sites myself that I consider credible, or have seen reposted from them by people here who I consider credible, but have not tested or determined myself. I don't think anyone can test or confirm this, given the random nature of drops and such, unless segments of the code are in the client. Either way, this is the most sensible analysis of the bonuses and such that I've found, and it seems to fall in line with my experience with some pretty extensive hunting (lolgwanas). For what boosts kills in falz missions specifically I cannot say, the arms boosting kill count is complete conjecture on my part.

But yes, all that breaks down to tl;dr: 1.3x lucky rise should be separate and counted as a multiplier to the 350% boost by nature of additional drops given the rare boost, not added to it as a higher rare boost.

edit: And I want to add that untekked rares almost definitely do not count in the rare item listing, as "tested" when some guy around here saw a friend find a boxed psycho wand. The number of psycho wands on the quest item list did not increase the next day, or at all during the following week.

[Meji]

Meaning the 30% boost may overwrite some of the meseta. Okay.This is pretty much how I believe it to be as well, yeah. enemies don't drop more stuff, just more... items?

[gigawuts]

Check the edit to that post, you may find it significant for this.

[Z-0]

I believe the full list is shown on Elder though. As far as I know, no items are "cut off" due to the limit.
Nope, items are "cut off". The "rares" are not, but "non-rares" are listed in the Quest Records too. That is why I asked about non-rares being completely separate from rares (I have no idea how this drop system works...). If they are, I suppose you could calculate them.

If you look at the graph, the percentages include under 7* items in the calculation too, and since items are definitely cut off due to much more than 30 different items dropping, this is somewhat skewed (which means the drop rates are most likely different from calculated by a fair margin. I do understand this is an approximate).

[Meji]

Check the edit to that post, you may find it significant for this.I had totally forgotten all about this. Putting it on the first page with the other theories.
If this is true, odds for rares are even greater. It would be odd if these things would not show up on the Drop List after they've been tekked though, but I honestly have no clue.

@Matt:
You're right, looked up the items, and quite a few are missing from the low-star items he should be able to drop.
I doubt the calculated % of the 11*'s would be greatly affected by this, but it will surely bring the whole sum down by a few decimals. Added info about it to the first page.

[gigawuts]

Well, odds relative to 6*'s and such. Since we can't pull the rate for 6*'s we have to do what I did for gwanas way back: Compare droprates of very common rares dropped by the same enemy that we've found a whole lot of. Then compare the proportions and other math magics.

So, anyone find a few thousand adamans? Happen to take note of every single other rare you've found? Now's your time to shine...

[Ce'Nedra]

So, anyone find a few thousand adamans? Happen to take note of every single other rare you've found? Now's your time to shine...

Not thousands but Nina kept track of every rare he got on elder afaik.

Still interesting topic to read~

[Dnd]

So, anyone find a few thousand adamans? Happen to take note of every single other rare you've found? Now's your time to shine...

haven't found afew thousand adamans, but been keeping track of, at least the rarity of drops on 99% of the falzs I've done since December..

213 falz kills - (62x 7* drops, 33x9* drops, elder riflex4/rodx5/fistx4, 5x slot unit drops)
(28x 50% kills - 5x100% kills - 17x 150% kills - 28x 250% kills - 17x300% kills - 11x350% kills - 6x400% kills.)

31 boosted falz kills - (19x 7* drop, 11x9* drop, 1x slot unit, 1x Elder rod)
(1x 100% rare boost - 11x 300% rare boost - 13x 350% rare boost - 3x 400% rare boost)

Seeing the drop-rate set to 1/10000 with a 350% booster makes me feel easier about not getting one yet i suppose :3

[Chik'Tikka]

quite interesting+^_^+ i never knew there was math, anytime i wanted to hunt rares i'd build a shine to the RNG god DuDu, go out and buy a weapon or something from a gun shop and offer it to the shrine+^_^+

[DoubleCannon]

So.. in a sense when I found Guld Milla.. it was like finding SJS instead of a photon drop.

http://static.tumblr.com/subis5z/zuBlo6mmb/fc8c2dd9c5.png

[Macman]

Meanwhile, every ranger is still stuck with terrible ares vis. ;_;

[gigawuts]

So.. in a sense when I found Guld Milla.. it was like finding SJS instead of a photon drop.

http://static.tumblr.com/subis5z/zuBlo6mmb/fc8c2dd9c5.png

It was more like finding 2 SJS in the same room. The droprates in this game are horrifying. Hunting any ordinary rare is like hunting an SJS, hunting an uber is like hunting an SJS with 50 hit.

[Z-0]

It's a shame you can't even hunt half the stuff you want anyway. . .

[TaigaUC]

All I know is that I've been constantly running 4 characters (4 attempts per EQ) through maybe 60%-70% of the Falz EQs on Ship 2 since December 2012 with rare drop boost varying from 0% to 180%, and haven't seen any 11 stars.
Not expecting or really hoping for them anymore, either. They cost a fortune to grind and aren't even resellable. I'd rather have tens to hundreds of millions over a moderate damage boost that will eventually become obsolete.

I honestly wish the rare drop system generally used something like the Matterboard's drop system where you can work towards a guaranteed drop (or higher drop chance).
I personally don't care for rarity when it's completely based on luck. I see no reason to be proud over something that is basically out of my control with zero direct influence from myself or my abilities.


I actually question if it even influences rares. The same way untekked boosts merely boost the proportion of rares you find that are untekked, Lucky Rise may merely boost all non-rare items. It wouldn't be the first time Sega misled us with poor wording, intentional or otherwise.

Yes. I might almost swear that rares drop more often without any boosts. Although, it does seem like garbage rares drop a lot more with boosts.
My friend doesn't use any boosts and keeps getting 10 star drops. If anything, I bet the code is broken and SEGA hasn't noticed because they probably haven't tested it extensively.

[jooozek]

just a note, those drops are from the boosted falz

[BlankM]

So with us hitting 100% boost week, 450% boost + 9% team + 30% lucky rise + deband drink = ?????

Going to try this a few times.

[Inazuma]

So with us hitting 100% boost week, 450% boost + 9% team + 30% lucky rise + deband drink = ?????

Going to try this a few times.

Don't bother with the deband drink. It's rare item drop rate affect will expire when the quest is cleared. That happens before you break the red crystal, so it has zero effect on finding rare items in the Falz quests.

Instead you should grab the shifta drink so you can kill Falz quicker, plus get a chance at more exp.

[Kitoshi]

So with us hitting 100% boost week, 450% boost + 9% team + 30% lucky rise + deband drink = ?????

Going to try this a few times.

I want to add to this that July the 12th has another +50 % drop rate boost.

So that means +150 % drop rate from just the events.

[Z-0]

July 12th does not have 50% Rare Drop event. If you read the information tab ingame, it says they removed the Rare Drop event because of the webpanel event next week. They edited the boost event page to reflect this.

This was why the information panel randomly came up in the middle of the week a couple of days ago.

[Macman]

just a note, those drops are from the boosted falz
Boosted Falz has no increased droprate at all.

[jooozek]

Boosted Falz has no increased droprate at all.
you tell that all the "level of monsters raises the item drop rate" guys

[Macman]

I don't have it on me, but a friend compared affix/rare drop records on both normal falz and lv60 falz.

He found that, while at the time, there were 10 times as many rares on the records in lv60 falz, there were also 10 times as many affix drops. So really the increased drop counts were merely caused by more people playing the quest.

[Ce'Nedra]

Considering there have been only 10-20 of every 11* on lv50 Elder and 50-60 on the lv60 Elder, I do believe its boosted, or people abuse more rare drop rate tickets (of which I still believe they don't work at all)

[Macman]

How often has lv50 shown up compared to 60?
You have to remember that the lv60 Falz is running on a schedule, so more people are available to play it.

[Ce'Nedra]

How often has lv50 shown up compared to 60?
You have to remember that the lv60 Falz is running on a schedule, so more people are available to play it.

Hmm that does differ, the other is only random so it can never get as much drops as one that is set I guess.

Either way most of us will still never get a 11* regardless unless they make them drop outside of falz at some point in SVH or something. I can only imagine how 15* will be handled :wacko:

[HIT0SHI]

I have yet to get any 10* from Falz even against him on his lv60 form. All i get is wands and 9* green launchers. This rare drops are hilariously bad and i don't even wanna think about +12* >_>

[Aine]

Boosted Falz has no increased droprate at all.

http://pso2.jp/players/update/20130612/05/

Well the official site literally says that the droprate is increased, so unless SEGA is lying to us...

[Dnd]

How often has lv50 shown up compared to 60?
You have to remember that the lv60 Falz is running on a schedule, so more people are available to play it.

Even before then, at the Christmas event where he appeared like 20 times a week, i never, ever saw the 11*'s break 50 a week (at least on ship seven) Boosted falz 11*'s are between 60-70 each..
[SPOILER-BOX]http://imageshack.us/a/img706/8608/pddm.jpg[/SPOILER-BOX]
and i still dont have falclaw yet :|

[Tenlade]

http://pso2.jp/players/update/20130612/05/

Well the official site literally says that the droprate is increased, so unless SEGA is lying to us...

Yeah. They are.
drop chart of boosted falz taken during the middle of the week he first appeared (http://i.imgur.com/mzlWjVp.jpg)
drop chart of a regular falz taken the same day. (http://i.imgur.com/POumZJj.jpg)

checking the Affix charts, the affixes all had dropped around 7.0x~7.5x more then in the regular falz. However if you tried to directly compare the rare drop rates youd get stuff ranging from 4x~∞ x , so we cant really tell if the drop rate works or not from that because its so random.

We can however compare the appearance rate of the Freeze II affix since thats guaranteed to show up on everyone favorite wand, the Mace of Adaman. If we check the rate that affix appeared, it appeared 8.3x times that of regular falz. Thats not much higher then the other affixes, and means that the ratio of rare mace drop to regular drop had a really tiny increase, most likely matching a group of players dumping rare drop tickets on it.

So any possible increase in drop rate was possibly just due to people dumping rare tickets on it, and even if it was, it was a very shitty low drop boost, not even 100, or even 50% increase. also it means that nearly a quarter of a million mace of Adamans dropped for players, and that any rare wand you see drop by falz could have less then a 1/2000 chance of being an elysion. (jesus christ sega)

[Macman]

That bit about Freeze II and Adamans is something I didn't consider. So affixes still get reported even if the drop is untekked? Interesting...

[TaigaUC]

I've been running 4-5 characters through almost every 60 Falz so far, and it honestly feels like the drop rate is the same as 50 Falz. I know that's hardly accurate information, though.

I ran 5 characters through Elder during the 100% rare boost event, with rare boost totals of 480%, 465%, 465%, 255% and 105%. Got 3 rares on almost every character, and aside from an Elder Rod/Rifle or two, the rest was all the usual useless garbage like Lambda St Kilda, Adaman, Fail Note, Reguzaga, Raizenoch. I think each character also received 6 Falz exhange crystals.

I was expecting cheap Nei Claws to hit the marketplace after the event, but only saw around two. That's pretty damn sad.

[Goukezitsu]

Aight. Theres alot of data in that famitsu guide that explain how drops work and drop tiers work. So there's a lot of mystery uncovered. Boosted falz would increase drop rate cuz in theory the drop tier should raise so it should be picking through an identical sheet twice making it pretty much run all of the rares 2 times instead of just once giving you 16 shots at an 11*+ vs the 8 on normal falz so in theory it would seemingly translate to 100% faster and normally each boss upon killing the enemy cap drops 5 main tier drops which each go through the main lottery twice.

Here's how drop tier and lucky rise works:

http://sasaraki.web.fc2.com/pso2_droptable_how_to.html

Also, Oddly enough I came up with the same numbers in the chart, but i was kind of worried to post here because the reception on drop rates here seem fairly negative ; ;.

I have the raw magazine scans too I can upload later if someones a bit iffy on just seeing this blog but the info is correct. PSO 2 swiki has it too

also: http://www.g-heaven.net/topics/2012/09/120924a.html this site drops a ton of information too including a lot of information reguarding which breakable parts drop what.

Edit: Lucky rise boosts everything 4* and above where as rare drop tickets drinks and tree does not it only boosts 7* and above

[Macman]

Edit: Lucky rise boosts everything 4* and above where as rare drop tickets drinks and tree does not it only boosts 7* and above
Then why do the rare drop boost tickets increase the amount of stones you get from AQ and XQ? Those are only 6*.

[Link1275]

I don't know.

Some calculation on 12* weapons (Psycho Wand and Ely Sion) from Falz, though, turns up as 15 over 1 billion (with no boosters)

.039018442%

[Z-0]

Then why do the rare drop boost tickets increase the amount of stones you get from AQ and XQ? Those are only 6*.
Special items. Just the way it's programmed.

[Exiled_Gundam]

Does frequency of delivering killing blow to DF Arms will increase rare drop rate on DF Elder?

[Punisher106]

Just gonna put this out there.

100% Server boost + 100% Tri-boost + 75% Drop boost = Mace of Adaman and Lambda Legzaga.

brb, killing sega.

[Cortte]

Just gonna put this out there.

100% Server boost + 100% Tri-boost + 75% Drop boost = Mace of Adaman and Lambda Legzaga.

brb, killing sega.

Oh yeah? Ready for this one?

100% Server boost + 100% Tri-boost + 250% + 15% (3 Lucky Rise Items)

465% Drop rate and got nothing. All meseta and junk items. Not a god damn thing.

[gigawuts]

This is really making it clear just how stupid hard it is to get anything in this game. They double the rates and most of us still aren't finding jack shit.

[Dnd]

two 455% rare drop falzs and 10% lucky rise..

first drops adaman/daggers tekked
second drops nothing, nothing at all....

[HIT0SHI]

Rare Drop tickets are pointless then :/

[Exiled_Gundam]

two 455% rare drop falzs and 10% lucky rise..

first drops adaman/daggers tekked
second drops nothing, nothing at all....

Hmm for the second drops.. did you do the DF Arms quest much? Or only do few to conserve boost?

[Dnd]

Hmm for the second drops.. did you do the DF Arms quest much? Or only do few to conserve boost?

the first one i did one arms because i was insanely tired
The second i did 2 arms (I died and didnt get revived in time on the first, so wanted to make sure i was flagged?)