Grinding to +10 the 2nd time

[gaijin_punch]

Does the chances of success drop for the 2nd run of +1 to +10 grinding? I unlocked a hidden ability on my 11-star katana and the 2nd time seemed FAR more painful than the first. Starting at +8 I spent about a mil on helpers (including 2 that knocked the damage risk down totally). I had it to +9 once and accidentally hit the button w/ no helpers and it went to +6. About punched the balls off myself.

[milranduil]

RNG

5char

[gaijin_punch]

RNG

5char

The fact that as you increase the grind value, the danger level always becomes greater disproves randomness.

[Kondibon]

The fact that as you increase the grind value, the danger level always becomes greater disproves randomness.Random is random. Computer run RNGs technichally aren't random however, and people have noted that the one in PSO2 is prone to streaks, implying that it doesn't have a failsafe like some other games do.

That said, bad RNG asside, a 50% chance doesn't mean it's impossible to get 10 successes in a row anymore than 10 fails in a row (hence why failsafes are important).

[milranduil]

The fact that as you increase the grind value, the danger level always becomes greater disproves randomness.


That's not what I mean. I mean it's still going to be random whether you pass any grind or not, regardless of the success rate or the danger level. Here I'll show you some graphs of mine.

Flame Revolver (10*) +20 -> +40
[spoiler-box]
As you can see, even with a 10% boost, you can still have rather shitty luck.
http://i181.photobucket.com/albums/x72/Milranduil/flamerevolver.png (http://s181.photobucket.com/user/Milranduil/media/flamerevolver.png.html)
[/spoiler-box]

Diggnutts Pillar (10*) 0->40
[spoiler-box]
This was *not* during a grind boost. However notice the fun 12 fails 9->10 in a row followed by a painless 0->10.

http://i181.photobucket.com/albums/x72/Milranduil/diggpillar.png (http://s181.photobucket.com/user/Milranduil/media/diggpillar.png.html)
[/spoiler-box]

Fossilblower (10*) 10->20
[spoiler-box]
This was during a 5% boost. I believe this speaks for itself.
http://i181.photobucket.com/albums/x72/Milranduil/fossilblower_grinds.png (http://s181.photobucket.com/user/Milranduil/media/fossilblower_grinds.png.html)
[/spoiler-box]

[TaigaUC]

Danger level just defines a smaller area that you need to land a successful random roll in.

For example (made-up numbers):
-3 fail = random roll of 0 to 10, if item is rarer it could be 0 to 30
-2 fail = random roll of 10 to 30, if item is rarer it could be 30 to 60
-1 fail = random roll of 30 to 60, if item is rarer it could be 60 to 90
success = random roll of 60 to 100, if item is rarer it could be 90 to 100.

So, going by the fake numbers above, if you roll a 55 and it's a low rarity item, you'd just get a -1 failure.
But if you rolled a 55 and it was an 11 star item, you'd get a -2 fail.
To get a success, you'd need to roll between 60 and 100 on a non-rare, or between 90 and 100 on a very rare.
Again, these are just made-up numbers.

That's my understanding of how it works, anyway.
To answer the OP, latent level doesn't affect subsequent re-grinds. The game just sucks.

[NexusAZ]

That's not what I mean. I mean it's still going to be random whether you pass any grind or not, regardless of the success rate or the danger level. Here I'll show you some graphs of mine.

Flame Revolver (10*) +20 -> +40
[spoiler-box]
As you can see, even with a 10% boost, you can still have rather shitty luck.
http://i181.photobucket.com/albums/x72/Milranduil/flamerevolver.png (http://s181.photobucket.com/user/Milranduil/media/flamerevolver.png.html)
[/spoiler-box]

Diggnutts Pillar (10*) 0->40
[spoiler-box]
This was *not* during a grind boost. However notice the fun 12 fails 9->10 in a row followed by a painless 0->10.

http://i181.photobucket.com/albums/x72/Milranduil/diggpillar.png (http://s181.photobucket.com/user/Milranduil/media/diggpillar.png.html)
[/spoiler-box]

Fossilblower (10*) 10->20
[spoiler-box]
This was during a 5% boost. I believe this speaks for itself.
http://i181.photobucket.com/albums/x72/Milranduil/fossilblower_grinds.png (http://s181.photobucket.com/user/Milranduil/media/fossilblower_grinds.png.html)
[/spoiler-box]

I Love graphs!

[spoiler-box]http://puu.sh/6S3Xl.png[/spoiler-box]

[Kikikiki]

One's gotta have a shitton of patience to sit there an cut out the numbers in graphs like that one above.

[milranduil]

I Love graphs!

[spoiler-box]http://puu.sh/6S3Xl.png[/spoiler-box]

God damn .-. I was too scared to not use protects at +9 for 11*s before the "relaxation".

[gaijin_punch]

Okay, I understand how all that works. I added abilities to a weapon. 2 were 55%, one was 17% and they all landed (woot) and I've failed with 85% a LOT. What I'm curious about is, generally speaking, is my "landing spot" the second time around, in theory, the same size as it was before. It sounds like it is.

[Sizustar]

You want to do it before this week's maintance, because there's still the 10& increase.
I got 5 rod to +10 potentional 3 with less 500 ore...Wasted more money getting the 4S
[SPOILER-BOX]http://i.imgur.com/4uOP5DC.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/NgAcWyn.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/aPlWkob.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/NW1Vs18.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/MDsAIEU.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/0jOsPMv.jpg[/SPOILER-BOX]

[Daiyousei]

Random is random. Computer run RNGs technichally aren't random however, and people have noted that the one in PSO2 is prone to streaks, implying that it doesn't have a failsafe like some other games do.

That said, bad RNG asside, a 50% chance doesn't mean it's impossible to get 10 successes in a row anymore than 10 fails in a row (hence why failsafes are important).

On the streaks, I noticed that I tend to have fail streaks if I spam. I usually grind my stuff over a period of time or if I'm a bit impatient, I'd just wait a few seconds between attempts. My success rates are higher that way.

[Dnd]

Grinding is the same success no matter the latent level of the weapon, but due to pso2, its rng scales from either really good or nightmarish, no middle ground.

[Friyn]

Tfw I've grinded 3x 11* weapons to +10 and unlocked lv. 3 potential under 1m. Risk reducers, Photon Spheres and Grinders were all "free" from SH AQs and fun.

[gigawuts]

One's gotta have a shitton of patience to sit there an cut out the numbers in graphs like that one above.

Or I pasted it into a spreadsheet which split the text and spit out a graph that I screencapped in ~4 seconds.

[Kondibon]

Or I pasted it into a spreadsheet which split the text and spit out a graph that I screencapped in ~4 seconds.http://www.terminally-incoherent.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/areyouawizard.png

[Kikikiki]

I never knew Excel had that function. Easy peasy now.

[Chdata]

The fact that as you increase the grind value, the danger level always becomes greater disproves randomness.

That doesn't disprove the fact that pseudorandom number generation is how they determines the grind success at any level. Unlocking potential does not make the next grind harder, whether or not your grind seems easy or not is all up to pseudorandom number generation.

[gaijin_punch]

That doesn't disprove the fact that pseudorandom number generation is how they determines the grind success at any level. Unlocking potential does not make the next grind harder, whether or not your grind seems easy or not is all up to pseudorandom number generation.

I guess you don't understand the question. I know the number is randomly generated every time. I'm wondering if the range of acceptable numbers (IE, the success rate) is smaller or larger the second time. From what I've gathered, it is.


You want to do it before this week's maintance, because there's still the 10& increase

Yep - that's why I was asking!

[milranduil]

As has been said before, the success rate of any grind is mutually exclusive from the latent level.

[Zipzo]

I guess you don't understand the question. I know the number is randomly generated every time. I'm wondering if the range of acceptable numbers (IE, the success rate) is smaller or larger the second time. From what I've gathered, it is.



Yep - that's why I was asking!

Nothing changes between latent unlocks. What you've gathered is nothing but biased assumptions.

I've seen people have breezy 2-3 unlock grinds, and hell-worthy first grinds on their 11*s. I've seen the opposite.

RNG is RNG. Don't try to make a system out of it, because it will just annoy and irritate those of us who have learned to accept it.

[gaijin_punch]

RNG is RNG. Don't try to make a system out of it, because it will just annoy and irritate those of us who have learned to accept it.

I understand RNG. It's called "success rate" for a reason, though. It's a rate. I wondered if the rate changed is all. Sorry if I wasn't clear. I understand now it doesn't (based on latent ability anyway), so I'm happy (sort of).

[UnLucky]

Definitive proof by counter example to the postulated hypothesis that higher unlocked weapon latent potential levels decreases further success chance of weapon grind attempts:

10* Gunslash to +30:
[SPOILER-BOX]http://i.imgur.com/dcMYb05.png[/SPOILER-BOX]
12* Rod to +40:
[SPOILER-BOX]http://i.imgur.com/WDRIMkF.png[/SPOILER-BOX]

[gaijin_punch]

Nice -- I like that. Painstaking. ;)
Were any of those done this week?

[UnLucky]

Yeah, both during the +10% boost, using risk(+1) and +5% at 8->9->10

[gaijin_punch]

Good to know. How much is each grind on a 12*?

[Zorafim]

I Love graphs!

[spoiler-box]http://puu.sh/6S3Xl.png[/spoiler-box]

What I'm seeing here is "don't grind above +7"

[UnLucky]

Good to know. How much is each grind on a 12*?

30k per attempt on the PW, plus 5 Grinders each time

[gaijin_punch]

30k per attempt on the PW, plus 3 Grinders each time

Ouch, pricey. Seems a bit odd on the grinders though, no? It's 4 on the 11-stars. :-/

[Bellion]

[SPOILER-BOX]www.youtube.com/watch?v=EjIICEKPlxU[/SPOILER-BOX]

It's 5 grinders each attempt.

[UnLucky]

Oh right whoops, I was looking at the wrong thing. I can't grind it anymore to check.

Yeah it's 5 grinders per.

[Daiyousei]

Definitive proof by counter example to the postulated hypothesis that higher unlocked weapon latent potential levels decreases further success chance of weapon grind attempts:

10* Gunslash to +30:
[SPOILER-BOX]http://i.imgur.com/dcMYb05.png[/SPOILER-BOX]
12* Rod to +40:
[SPOILER-BOX]http://i.imgur.com/WDRIMkF.png[/SPOILER-BOX]

That's quite a lucky streak with the Psycho wand there.

[gaijin_punch]

For the record, I unlocked 2 latents. Immediate Strike to level 2 on the クラテルネイルス (Krater Nails?) which actually popped up on the weekend, and Tengeki no Kamau on my エレヌバティン. Refrained from any others as it's unclear if I'll actually use them. Thanks for everyone's comments. I had a rough time getting from 7 to 8 w/o any items, so I just started boosting probability at +7. Probably saved money that way.

[Dnd]

For the record, I unlocked 2 latents. Immediate Strike to level 2 on the クラテルネイルス (Krater Nails?) which actually popped up on the weekend, and Tengeki no Kamau on my エレヌバティン. Refrained from any others as it's unclear if I'll actually use them. Thanks for everyone's comments. I had a rough time getting from 7 to 8 w/o any items, so I just started boosting probability at +7. Probably saved money that way.

+1 protects are your friend, they are cheaper and even with boosting probability of success, you are more likely to fail and drop grind levels then actually get a +1. Using a -1 knocks off maybe another 30% chances of a failure going -1 off the grind level. (It works out on danger -3, you're more likely to fail -0 or succeed then fail and drop grind levels)

[gaijin_punch]

That seemed to be the case with me, yeah. Just to be safe I used a couple of fail risks lighten (total) as I didn't have a ton of time left to mess with it, even though I had the meseta.

I think I'm all grinded up for the moment.

[MetalDude]

The way it seems to work is that it feels like it'll roll for each amount a grind will drop if you fail. The game will likely succeed in rolling the drop at least once, but not always more than that (which is why -3 is very unlikely even during normal rates) so a +1 will help a lot in stopping those rolls. It may not be proven, but it really doesn't feel like the game randomly selects -1 to -3, but rather rerolls a chance for the level of drop.

[Dnd]

The way it seems to work is that it feels like it'll roll for each amount a grind will drop if you fail. The game will likely succeed in rolling the drop at least once, but not always more than that (which is why -3 is very unlikely even during normal rates) so a +1 will help a lot in stopping those rolls. It may not be proven, but it really doesn't feel like the game randomly selects -1 to -3, but rather rerolls a chance for the level of drop.

From +6 onwards on (I believe like, 9* weapons and higher?) it will ALWAYS drop -1 if it fails without a protect item, this is why +1 protects are so good.

In addition, I don't think the rates are rolled multiple times (So if it rolls a -1, it rolls again and if it works, its -2 etc). Im pretty sure its just a roll for either success or fail, then if fail a second roll for the grind knocked off, then it applys the grind protection you have (if any)

[milranduil]

I'm not so sure about that. I notice instances where 6 either goes -2, -1, or +1, but never stays, but I've had rolls at 7, 8, and 9 that still stay even with no reducers. It makes no sense to me .-.

[deahamlet]

Definitely had many times going +7 +7 +7... with no protects. Even +9 failed without dropping a few times when I got pissed off at wasting +1 protects on a 10*. LOLz.

[Daiyousei]

with me though, the first fail usually doesn't drop grind levels, it's if I keep continuing that the streak kills the grind, I've had a +9 drop all the way to +2 in 4 consecutive fails, I got greedy after the first grind didn't drop the level.

[gaijin_punch]

I'm not so sure about that. I notice instances where 6 either goes -2, -1, or +1, but never stays, but I've had rolls at 7, 8, and 9 that still stay even with no reducers. It makes no sense to me .-.

Similar. They should make a tweak to the interface though. The default button should be cancel, not "okay". Too many times I fat-fingered it and went from +9 to +7 (or even +6 once).