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Liokia
Dec 2, 2006, 09:03 PM
It appears to me that the chances on a grind failure is far from what the game tells us. My grinding just went as follows:

Hajirod 2->3 B+5 Success (VH)
Hajirod 3->4 B+7 Failure (VH)
Hajirod 2->3 B+4 Failure (VH)
Hajirod 2->3 B+4 Success (VH)
Altera 5->6 C+10 Success (H)
Altera 6->7 C+9 Failure (50/50)
Hajirod 5->6 B+10 Failure (H)
Hajirod 5->6 B+10 Failure (H)

Since the game tells us that 50/50 is lower then High or Very High then one would assume that after a 50/50 failure that I should have been able to succedd with apparent H=(X/X > 50/50) and should I then fail... I should very well be able to manage on the follow up... however facts would show... /cry

Randomness
Dec 2, 2006, 09:05 PM
Probability can very easily appear wrong in small-scale testing. For true accuracy, you need to do hundreds of trials.

MXdude
Dec 2, 2006, 09:06 PM
iv flipped a coin and gotten tails 5 times in a row....still 50/50 >.>

ViciousXUSMC
Dec 2, 2006, 09:08 PM
its just so random :/ I never go past +4

its not grinding but I want to add this since it seems relivant and I dont want to start a whole thread on it.

Raising my tech PM I started making hajirods soon as it hit tech 20 all the way from tech 20 to tech 40 NOT ONE failed I made like 40 rods with a 50-60% chance and they all worked. Yesterday when I hit tech 40 and was in the high 60's and now low 70's % for success... They are failing left and right.

Its not uncommon for 3 out of 4 to fail on me eatch batch and my cash flow is now negative.

That just seems WAY too random to me to be random http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_razz.gif



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: ViciousXUSMC on 2006-12-02 18:09 ]</font>

Arislan
Dec 2, 2006, 09:09 PM
Not really. You could have a 99% chance and fail it twice. Chance is 1 in 10,000, but it can happen. Did to me about 3 hours ago in a game I was playing. I then proceeded to make 4 ~35% chance "rolls" in a row, so I guess the RNG was being its normal, inscrutable self. Really need more controlled, high count data to make a good experiment with grinding. Around 1000 or so grinds at each level with each + of grinder should begin to give an idea of a percentage.

MXdude
Dec 2, 2006, 09:10 PM
40 rods O.o wow. thats....insane lol

ViciousXUSMC
Dec 2, 2006, 09:12 PM
Well more like 30 honestly now that I think about it, but thats still kinda strange how it worked out.

I was totaly like "yes! im so glad I am spending the time/money on a tech PM this is so much better than hunter weps" making haji's left and right and they sell for 16k like candy. Now im just making expensive monomates like candy.

I was so confident from all the no-fails at low % that now with a high % its kinda freaking me out and im almost scared to craft. The mats for these are almost NPC price in everybodies shop unless your lucky and find 1 or 2 here and there. So failing cost you alot.





<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: ViciousXUSMC on 2006-12-02 18:14 ]</font>

Liokia
Dec 2, 2006, 11:01 PM
It didn't bother me @ first about the high failure rate with supposidly above 50% success probabilty however... this is how all my grinding adventures have gone thus far... past (2) on the B Grinders, High for me is ringing in a whopping 33% success rate while VH is scoring a total of 38%... I am currently @ 137 grinding attempts 85 B rank and 52 C rank... I am going to keep charting this to whatever extent needed... I am wondering if there is anyone out there that is also tracking their grinds?

Killuminati
Dec 3, 2006, 12:03 AM
On 2006-12-02 18:03, Liokia wrote:
It appears to me that the chances on a grind failure is far from what the game tells us. My grinding just went as follows:

Hajirod 2->3 B+5 Success (VH)
Hajirod 3->4 B+7 Failure (VH)
Hajirod 2->3 B+4 Failure (VH)
Hajirod 2->3 B+4 Success (VH)
Altera 5->6 C+10 Success (H)
Altera 6->7 C+9 Failure (50/50)
Hajirod 5->6 B+10 Failure (H)
Hajirod 5->6 B+10 Failure (H)

Since the game tells us that 50/50 is lower then High or Very High then one would assume that after a 50/50 failure that I should have been able to succedd with apparent H=(X/X > 50/50) and should I then fail... I should very well be able to manage on the follow up... however facts would show... /cry



Wow with +10 bases and you still failed... I geuss I was wrong to think that +10 bases would not fail. Did you try this with luck btw or without luck?

Dj_SkyEpic
Dec 3, 2006, 01:24 AM
I had a theory on grinding. Here it is as followed.

My theory is that grinding is by chance of +luck day and speed when you grind.
I say speed because most people tend to rush their grind and always seem to fail miserably. What I want to point out is that you should try taking your time and not repeatedly grind items to the max in one day... Take time to equip your success in order to come back later and grind up some more.

I know it may sound strange... "Grind too fast and it will blow!So slow down a bit!" but I've been taking my time slowly and grinding one weapon timely. I have yet to have my weapon blown up since my 5 hajis last 2 weeks ago. http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_razz.gif BUT dont trust me too much on this, it's only a theory I tell everyone.

Try some tricks yourselves and maybe formulate some more equations... There must be some other way to defeat failure rates besides just theorys.

PMB960
Dec 3, 2006, 02:18 AM
If you take a high level statistics course you will learn that something can have a 100% chance of happening and never happen ( yeah I know its weird) and have a 0% chance of happening but always happen. And I don't mean close to 100 or 0 I mean 100% and 0%. Often times a string of good luck will be followed by many failures. The odds usually balance out in the end.

Liokia
Dec 3, 2006, 06:16 AM
I understand the statistics behind it but I should point out that according to the idea of inevitable statistical balance that the imbalance could potential continue forever... ;;.... >.>.... /cry.... BTW... I like DJ's idea.... I am going to start my chart over and this time track the time inbetween the grinds... then agian I am up for most anything that boost my chance of success atm lol...

curlack45
Dec 3, 2006, 06:21 AM
Since this topic si on grinding, i thought i'd bring up SUV wepions... i'm a offliner and i'm on mellove's awakening (or somthing like that) and lou dose a suv special wepion, then she says "you can't have one". is this true for a offliner?



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: curlack45 on 2006-12-03 03:22 ]</font>

Alicks
Dec 3, 2006, 06:22 AM
This is helpful.. I wish I had seen it before I tried upgrading the Haji I had saved up for. Stupid grinding lady lied! ;___; Make me broke, will she.. *grumbles*

Carbinne
Dec 3, 2006, 06:24 AM
Could be all kinds of stuff. Could be that certain races have a benefit bonus to grinding. Could be that similar to FFXI certain days are better to grind certain weapons than others. Could be a timer that boosts percentages invisibly the longer you wait between grinds. But we don't know yet. Could just be that there's a flat percentage chance that leans curiously towards the FAIL region. But until someone gets out there with like a thousand weapons and grinders and spends several days doing various tests, we probably won't be able to say "this helps chances!" with any semblance of certainty.

Ilmoran
Dec 3, 2006, 12:54 PM
On the note of miserable failures: I broke 8 out of 10 gi-senba attempts at over 50% each time, and those things are bloody expensive to make. 15 nanocarbon and 6 marseline -_- Someone else I saw broke 2 98%'s in a row. I think Sega's RNG is broken >.>

Danyl
Dec 3, 2006, 01:42 PM
I totally feel the pain of grinding. The other day I broke 2 hikauris with b+8 grinders, trying to go +2, and this was with 3 luck. The Moral of the story is play it safe! Once you have all your weapon slots full at +1, try for a +2 with every additional weapon you get. If it breaks you still have your +1s. Eventually you'll have all slots full with +2s. Then go for +3s with additional weapons! And so on and so on. You'll never feel bad that the new weapon you got blew before you had a chance to used it.

PMB960
Dec 3, 2006, 02:34 PM
Its not that its broken just that you are unlucky. I mean lok at PSO. It was possible for people to have 2 sealed J-swords drop in the same run but for others you can kill double the number you are suppossed to and never have it drop. I do what Danyl does though. I make sure I have enough meseta to buy another if it breaks before I try to grind my weapon though. As a force though I really only need 2 rods and a wand so all the rest are extras.

Wheatpenny
Dec 3, 2006, 02:40 PM
On 2006-12-02 22:24, Dj_SkyEpic wrote:
I had a theory on grinding. Here it is as followed.

My theory is that grinding is by chance of +luck day and speed when you grind.
I say speed because most people tend to rush their grind and always seem to fail miserably. What I want to point out is that you should try taking your time and not repeatedly grind items to the max in one day... Take time to equip your success in order to come back later and grind up some more.

I know it may sound strange... "Grind too fast and it will blow!So slow down a bit!" but I've been taking my time slowly and grinding one weapon timely. I have yet to have my weapon blown up since my 5 hajis last 2 weeks ago. http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_razz.gif BUT dont trust me too much on this, it's only a theory I tell everyone.

Try some tricks yourselves and maybe formulate some more equations... There must be some other way to defeat failure rates besides just theorys.




Actualy I agree with this post because at first I would go all out grind fest and the damn things would blow up after 4 then I started grinding like 1 or 2 at a time.Come back at a later date and grind and seemed less likely to break.Mabe superstition mabee not.

Arislan
Dec 3, 2006, 02:58 PM
My personal thought is that grinding is a very simple equation.
Rank 0 Luck
0 --> 1 - 99%
1 --> 2 - 94%
2 --> 3 - 89%
3 --> 4 - 84%
...
9 --> 10 - 54%

The pluses on Grinders cause a straight percentage increase, causing a Grinder + 1 to make the original grind 100%.

May be slightly off on the percentages, and I'm not sure exactly what luck does, but a simple grinding equation makes more sense than a complex one from a coding and design standpoint, as compared to one that relies on timers.

Dj_SkyEpic
Dec 3, 2006, 03:07 PM
On 2006-12-03 11:58, Arislan wrote:
My personal thought is that grinding is a very simple equation.
Rank 0 Luck
0 --> 1 - 99%
1 --> 2 - 94%
2 --> 3 - 89%
3 --> 4 - 84%
...
9 --> 10 - 54%

The pluses on Grinders cause a straight percentage increase, causing a Grinder + 1 to make the original grind 100%.

May be slightly off on the percentages, and I'm not sure exactly what luck does, but a simple grinding equation makes more sense than a complex one from a coding and design standpoint, as compared to one that relies on timers.


Using a Grinder B+4

I tried grinding from 0-1 with 0+ luck on a 6* weapon. Usually it would tell me "No chance of failure" but comes out to be "Very high chance of success."

When I came back with +2 luck it says "No chance of failure."

~I really do believe that luck adds to the equation.

HC82
Dec 3, 2006, 03:29 PM
Everyone knows that statistics are supposed to balance out in the end, but from my experiences, they don't.

I've raised my Tech mag to 100 and done so by synthing 2 star wands and feeding them, in addition to other means of raising tech. I always have a 90% chance to succeed, and I've probably made over 200+ wands in the process. If I tally the success versus the failure, it comes out more so to 80% success rate. Out of every 5 trys, usually 4 would succeed and 1 would fail. Rarely I would get all 5 to make and like wise I would occasionally receive numerous failures out of the batch of 5, so it evened out.


Grinding also seems a lot lower then it says. Very high seems to be 80% and 50/50 chance usually seems like 35%, but given my personal experiences on creating things 50% and below, it should be a coin flip of a chance, but it's usually worse then that. I'm a lot luckier with an actual coin in my hand then synthing anything is PSU.


Personally, whatever the percentage says, expect lower.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: HC82 on 2006-12-03 12:29 ]</font>

Jasam
Dec 3, 2006, 03:45 PM
On 2006-12-03 12:07, Dj_SkyEpic wrote:

On 2006-12-03 11:58, Arislan wrote:
My personal thought is that grinding is a very simple equation.
Rank 0 Luck
0 --> 1 - 99%
1 --> 2 - 94%
2 --> 3 - 89%
3 --> 4 - 84%
...
9 --> 10 - 54%

The pluses on Grinders cause a straight percentage increase, causing a Grinder + 1 to make the original grind 100%.

May be slightly off on the percentages, and I'm not sure exactly what luck does, but a simple grinding equation makes more sense than a complex one from a coding and design standpoint, as compared to one that relies on timers.


Using a Grinder B+4

I tried grinding from 0-1 with 0+ luck on a 6* weapon. Usually it would tell me "No chance of failure" but comes out to be "Very high chance of success."

When I came back with +2 luck it says "No chance of failure."

~I really do believe that luck adds to the equation.



Luck DOES add to the equation, as does the rank of the weapon. Higher rank weapons have lower chances, higher luck has better chances.

look at psupedia for a chart on what chance you have for each synth. (by what the lady says)

The question is are there any other factors, and how big is the 50/50 bracket? it could easly be a 20% range.
How much does luck and grinders inprove your % as well... If you take Arislan's example, you probably get about 5% bonus luck per luck level, and a -x% per weapon rank....

Arislan
Dec 3, 2006, 04:54 PM
I meant that I'm not sure exactly what percent luck would add, not that luck doesn't add, sorry if that was unclear. Anyway, it's just my personal theory, and I'm hardly rich enough to afford my second 5 star weapon, much less test it. http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_smile.gif

ViciousXUSMC
Dec 3, 2006, 04:54 PM
Luck does add to the equasion for grinding.

Also keep in mind C rank has higher % than say B rank wich is higher than A ect ect.

a +2 grinder may be no chance of falue for a C wep on a no luck day, but you need a +5 or somthing for a B rank wep for the same effect.

Liokia
Dec 3, 2006, 05:15 PM
My personal idea is that it probably fits into a pretty simplistic equation like:

A = (Random 100)
Y = Luck
A + ((10 * Y) /2) = Z
Z + {Grinder Amount} = X

If X < 50 {Weapon breaks}
If X > 50 {Synthisis success}
If X = 50 {Universe is Destroyed}

Problem is figuring out the exact numbers though...for instance the 10 on the 3rd line is just something I made up and the division of 1/2 is just to help make it more realistic in my mind... I would love to figure out the exact number... I do not however believe that time between synthisis has anything to do with the success. I dont much care to delve into that field of research because I personally do not give it much merit however after 100 Rank c synthisis @ +3 luck (Grinding from lv. 4 to 5 with a C2 Grinder (Hard)) I actually saw a decrease in the amount of failures after the first 50. The amount was about 8% Less then the first 50 which I will chalk up to the idea that statistical figures are going to have slight fluctuation between two sets of identical models. If anyone wishes to continue down that path be sure to post the results. http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/anime1.gif

Faendryl
Dec 3, 2006, 06:29 PM
I got lucky today ~ (female numan)

I grinded a cane from 0 to +8 (B+3, B+4 x 4, B+8 x 3)

I tried another cane and got it to +7, but broke on +8 >_< (B+3, B+4 x 3, B+8 x 4)

my third cane I ground out to +5 and left it there
(B+3, B+4 x 4)

Liokia
Dec 3, 2006, 11:56 PM
I was thinking about what was said with the days being associated with success on grinds... and I have a theory... granted I have ABSOLUTLY nothing to validate this...
We do know for a fact that the different planets have different races associated with them:
Parum= Casts
Neudaiz= Newman
Moatoob= Beasts
So perhaps it is possible that when a race has +Luck the planet also has a boosted chance for grinding success?

Dj_SkyEpic
Dec 4, 2006, 12:00 AM
On 2006-12-03 20:56, Liokia wrote:
I was thinking about what was said with the days being associated with success on grinds... and I have a theory... granted I have ABSOLUTLY nothing to validate this...
We do know for a fact that the different planets have different races associated with them:
Parum= Casts
Neudaiz= Newman
Moatoob= Beasts
So perhaps it is possible that when a race has +Luck the planet also has a boosted chance for grinding success?




Wow. That seems interesting. Have to experiment...

Kuya
Dec 4, 2006, 12:42 AM
I don't think the race/planet theory works. I've grinded a Blaster (GRM) to 10 and broke only one rifle while I've broken at least 40 Brahohs (Yohmei) over the past week. I am a newman...a very sad, poor newman http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_smile.gif

Liokia
Dec 4, 2006, 06:57 AM
I am not saying that you yourself gain a bonus from being newman. I am saying that on the day when Casts gain luck+3 that perhaps Parum gains a slight boost in grinding success. This is only a theory but I should not e that one person grinding a single item can never prove or disprove anything.

Zabot
Dec 4, 2006, 10:52 AM
Not being rude, but im sick of seeing mathamatical equasions, its a fucking game, it doesnt take analyzing. seriously sorry.

Peace

Liokia
Dec 4, 2006, 12:42 PM
Wow... if you dont really give that much about finding out how to play the game better then why the hell are you reading these forums? We are trying to figure out how to improve our chances of not losing a weapon. When your talking about pouring 100s of 1000s of meseta into getting a +10 version of a weapon it shouldn't be very hard to see why we are interested in getting better @ grinding. Since the game is a computer game, computer being the operative word there, everything in the game in going to be based on an equation. Oh and by the way... if your sick of seeing equations may I suggest you stop reading these forums... because until the game is figured out you will be seeing a lot of those... just come back when all the work is done and you can use the tips that we find out...