Finds/Accomplishment Thread

[Perfect Chaos]

Normally I'd shrug it off, but after accidentally wasting an hour of tri boost due to overwriting but not getting a pre-confirmation and getting THREE 14* drops that have a drop rate that drop 5% as much as ziren, I'm a little bothered by ziren not dropping and people getting doubles left and right.

You have to keep in mind that individually, the other 14* weapons each drops less than Zirenheit, but collectively, they drop more often than Zirenheit. Not 3x more often, though, so yeah, you're getting bad luck. It's just not as bad as what that sentence of yours makes it out to be.

Also, I didn't know of your bad luck with it until now, so I apologize for whispering to you in game to share my good fortune regarding it. Didn't mean to pore more salt into the wound.


But since it's like the best luck I've ever had in PSO2 since...EVER, I have got to share it on here. (Although I'm sure some will get salty over it.)

Like 5-10 minutes before the servers crashed recently, this happened in a single LQ run (notice what is in my inventory and what my cursor is pointing to in the chat box):
Attachment 41673

(I guess the 2nd Zirenheit will serve a purpose as factor fodder, if I ever get another Time Reversal Stone Chronos to get myself an Atra DB, since Zirenheit's S1 ability works perfectly with Atra DB's S4 ability.)

This came just after earlier this week (right after maintenance ended) when I finally got EPD to drop after giving up hope and only doing Enchanted Forest one last time to do the Simple Compound CO, only for EPD to drop during that one run. By far my luckiest week in PSO2, ever!

[GHNeko]

I'd believe the logic of "the combined rates for shien and guren is actually greater!" if drop rates worked on that logic and people werent getting multiple zirens but less than 2 of the other 14*s

[Digital Doom]

Have found 2 different 14* pets, using torim now is very fun at lvl 130 super strong. Just got the 14* LQ exclusive boots first run after server came back up just now. Also have enough badges to make a couple different new 13* into the 14* upgrade just not sure which yet.

Just found my 3rd 14* egg- it is the only pet that appears to have a new re-skin or at least changed color. The white shiney doggy.

[Perfect Chaos]

I'd believe the logic of "the combined rates for shien and guren is actually greater!" if drop rates worked on that logic and people werent getting multiple zirens but less than 2 of the other 14*s

Well, according to the drop rate, more people have gotten non-Zirenheit weapons than Zirenheit, itself, so it's just a fact. People getting multiple Zirenheit before getting multiple of the others is just the luck of the role. RNG is RNG. Your perception is getting skewed since you only hear the stories of people getting multiple Zirenheits, as that's the more special one, while most of the people that got multiple Guren/Shien weapons just kept quiet as there's less reason to speak up and tell the world about that.

Your luck isn't the worst, though. I have a friend who slaved from Enchanted Forest in search for a Kazami, only to literally get EVERY other Conqueror's Crest weapon and Demonia weapon (multiple of some of them, like 3 or 4 Lavis Cannons), yet never got a Kazami in the end.

[milranduil]

Your luck isn't the worst, though. I have a friend who slaved from Enchanted Forest in search for a Kazami, only to literally get EVERY other Conqueror's Crest weapon and Demonia weapon (multiple of some of them, like 3 or 4 Lavis Cannons), yet never got a Kazami in the end.

people who are having bad luck with a particular drop really don't want to hear a take on those with "worse" luck. it means nothing to them especially if it's someone they don't know. trust me

[GHNeko]

Well, according to the drop rate, more people have gotten non-Zirenheit weapons than Zirenheit, itself, so it's just a fact. People getting multiple Zirenheit before getting multiple of the others is just the luck of the role. RNG is RNG. Your perception is getting skewed since you only hear the stories of people getting multiple Zirenheits, as that's the more special one, while most of the people that got multiple Guren/Shien weapons just kept quiet as there's less reason to speak up and tell the world about that.

Your luck isn't the worst, though. I have a friend who slaved from Enchanted Forest in search for a Kazami, only to literally get EVERY other Conqueror's Crest weapon and Demonia weapon (multiple of some of them, like 3 or 4 Lavis Cannons), yet never got a Kazami in the end.

The item records aren't really indicative of drop rates.

Like you said, RNG is RNG, so it's very much a possibility that people have been getting luckier with Ziren than Shien/Guren and it's very much possible ziren does in fact have higher drop rates. You can't just look at the item tables and combine the results and be like

"oh man shien/guren totally have better drop rates when you compare them all together to ziren"

that's not how that works

that's not how any of this works

[Saagonsa]

The item records aren't really indicative of drop rates.

Like you said, RNG is RNG, so it's very much a possibility that people have been getting luckier with Ziren than Shien/Guren and it's very much possible ziren does in fact have higher drop rates. You can't just look at the item tables and combine the results and be like

"oh man shien/guren totally have better drop rates when you compare them all together to ziren"

that's not how that works

that's not how any of this works

Yes, that is literally how it works? The chance of getting a shien or guren weapon in general is greater than getting ziren-NT, specifically. The item record which represents all drops on all ships is a large enough amount of data to be representative. There is no arguing otherwise.

[GHNeko]

Yes, that is literally how it works? The chance of getting a shien or guren weapon in general is greater than getting ziren-NT, specifically. The item record which represents all drops on all ships is a large enough amount of data to be representative. There is no arguing otherwise.

???????????????

the amount of times an item drops doesnt not indicate its drop rate. for all we know there can be a statistical oddity in the form of a skew one way or another, and we wouldn't be any wiser.

that's why trying to interpolate the records in place of an actual drop rate doesn't make any sense.

this on top of the fact that we don't even know for 100% sure what affects the drop rates of 14* in LQ and to what degree.

[milranduil]

Yes, that is literally how it works? The chance of getting a shien or guren weapon in general is greater than getting ziren-NT, specifically. The item record which represents all drops on all ships is a large enough amount of data to be representative. There is no arguing otherwise.

you do not add rates of individual, unrelated drops to compare to another rate. that's not how math works. if that were true, and 20 items each had a 5% chance of dropping, then you'd be saying i'd be guaranteed at least 1 of any of the 20 items every single time, and that's obviously not how it works.

[Saagonsa]

???????????????

the amount of times an item drops doesnt not indicate its drop rate. for all we know there can be a statistical oddity in the form of a skew one way or another, and we wouldn't be any wiser.

that's why trying to interpolate the records in place of an actual drop rate doesn't make any sense.

this on top of the fact that we don't even know for 100% sure what affects the drop rates of 14* in LQ and to what degree.

The law of large numbers is a thing that would apply here.

you do not add rates of individual, unrelated drops to compare to another rate. that's not how math works. if that were true, and 20 items each had a 5% chance of dropping, then you'd be saying i'd be guaranteed at least 1 of any of the 20 items every single time, and that's obviously not how it works.

Nothing is guaranteed, correct. However, if you have a bag with 3 of the same color blue marbles and 4 different shades of red marble, and 93 sphere shaped rocks, you'd still have a much higher chance of pulling any shade of red than you would the blue marble. Obviously you're much more likely to get a sphere shaped rock, but that's not what we're talking about here.