Finds/Accomplishment Thread

[Dark Mits]

The law of large numbers is a thing that would apply here.

Murphy's Law too.

[milranduil]

Murphy's Law too.

the law of large numbers is a statistical principle referring to the averaging out of events with equal occurrence over a large sample size. murphy's law is load of nonsense.

[Zephyrion]

Meanwhile I'm contemplating the fact I got 3 Homuras 4 Gurens 1 Shien and one Trim *14 and Zirenheit still not in sight, it's just how things go. You could wrap your head around the problem forever, end result is still either farm to increase (and only increase) the chances of getting a good roll, or give it up.

[Zulastar]

Meanwhile I'm contemplating the fact I got 3 Homuras 4 Gurens 1 Shien and one Trim *14 and Zirenheit still not in sight, it's just how things go. You could wrap your head around the problem forever, end result is still either farm to increase (and only increase) the chances of getting a good roll, or give it up.

Well I got only 1 Homura rifle and few garbage Demon 13*. Not a trace of any 14* weapon or pet. Fuck my luck.
Meanwhile some people getting 14* one by one and have a 5 copies of Zirenheit already... I really want these tards to die with a brain cancer.

[ArcaneTechs]

Well I got only 1 Homura rifle and few garbage Demon 13*. Not a trace of any 14* weapon or pet. Fuck my luck.
Meanwhile some people getting 14* one by one and have a 5 copies of Zirenheit already... I really want these tards to die with a brain cancer.

fite me, i got my boots and got out and i dont even like JBs, i just wanted them to have them

[GHNeko]

Me: *spends a week grinding LQ straight; gets no zirenheit nt*

Me: Hey mind grinding the LQ for me while i go to my doctor's appointment?

Brother: yeah sure

Brother: *runs 3 LQs*

Brother:

....

i cant even be happy about this. bittersweet is the only apt word for this situation's end and it's not even descriptive enough for how im feeling about this. lol

in the end, I didnt drop the weapon, but it dropped for my account.

[cheapgunner]

Here's my 14* drop for the week/month/year:

pso20180702_230641_000.jpg

Now to farm near ~8k gold badges for my rainbow set of DBs... >.>;

[Perfect Chaos]

....

i cant even be happy about this. bittersweet is the only apt word for this situation's end and it's not even descriptive enough for how im feeling about this. lol

in the end, I didnt drop the weapon, but it dropped for my account.

Well, I guess that would explain why you bought a bunch of my Dio +20s. LOL

the law of large numbers is a statistical principle referring to the averaging out of events with equal occurrence over a large sample size. murphy's law is load of nonsense.

Occurrences don't have to be equal in probability. But yeah... Just a law that basically states that given a large sample size, the sample size will converge to the true probability of the events in question.
So if anyone is saying that the drop table taken from millions of people doing the quest non-stop for a week isn't a good approximation of the relative rates (we can't use it to approximate the absolute rates since it only shows the rarer items and not every possible drop), then I'm not even going to bother trying to educate you in mathematics.

[milranduil]

Well, I guess that would explain why you bought a bunch of my Dio +20s. LOL

Occurrences don't have to be equal in probability. But yeah... Just a law that basically states that given a large sample size, the sample size will converge to the true probability of the events in question.
So if anyone is saying that the drop table taken from millions of people doing the quest non-stop for a week isn't a good approximation of the relative rates (we can't use it to approximate the absolute rates since it only shows the rarer items and not every possible drop), then I'm not even going to bother trying to educate you in mathematics.

a variance of more than 10% across the guren/shien drops doesn't seem very averaged out does it?
"millions of people" lol okay

[Perfect Chaos]

At the very least, it's many millions of drops. And I guess 10% is a bit high, but the probability that each specific Guren/Shien dropping is quite low, so the drops are only in the hundreds, making some variance still there. But the matter here is that the comparative rate of Zirenheit to non-Zirenheit can be effectively estimated with the drop table as is without too much error. That, at least, can be assumed to be an effective estimate. But people seem to rather believe otherwise because of a very limited pool of stories of people getting multiple Zirenheits.

That aside, if people are so hesitant in using the in-game drop table to approximate relative drop ratios, thinking that there's too much variance, then why even bother to check the drop number table in the first place? Might as well just look at a table of random numbers created by Mr. Anonymous 1337 if you think the drop table is too inaccurate to be used.