14* Drop rate

[Dragwind]

My guess is that drop rates on certain items (that Sega wants to remain rare) are affected by hidden algorithms that they would never reveal. I've also had some wonky experiences on drop rates using near maxed possible RDR boosts (900%+), running for 6 hours straight with said boosts, and getting only 3 13*s. Then other times I've ran with minimal RDR on and would get multiple 13*s in a short time span.

Even recently I got a Slave Calibur NT with no rdr on using an alt.

I'm not sure where I stand with 14* drops. I try to collect my own data on parameters used by others when a 14* drops, but I can't find any connections aside from using team tree RDR boost. It seems to be common among those I've asked who've had a 14* drop, including myself.

I have my own theories/conspiracies on how it all works.

One of them is time period- Sometimes 14*s seem to drop in clusters at a certain time in the day to a few people from my observations.

Another is temporary drop ID assignment after every maintenance. My idea is that our "ID" changes after every maint. and every ID has certain characteristics to it (such as high chance of 12* arm unit drops, but very low drop chance for other units).


I have absolutely no way to prove any of this, especially if certain values are changed daily/weekly. I hope I humored some of you with these whacky ideas of mine.

[the_importer_]

My guess is that drop rates on certain items (that Sega wants to remain rare) are affected by hidden algorithms that they would never reveal. I've also had some wonky experiences on drop rates using near maxed possible RDR boosts (900%+), running for 6 hours straight with said boosts, and getting only 3 13*s. Then other times I've ran with minimal RDR on and would get multiple 13*s in a short time span.

Even recently I got a Slave Calibur NT with no rdr on using an alt.

I'm not sure where I stand with 14* drops. I try to collect my own data on parameters used by others when a 14* drops, but I can't find any connections aside from using team tree RDR boost. It seems to be common among those I've asked who've had a 14* drop, including myself.

I have my own theories/conspiracies on how it all works.

One of them is time period- Sometimes 14*s seem to drop in clusters at a certain time in the day to a few people from my observations.

Another is temporary drop ID assignment after every maintenance. My idea is that our "ID" changes after every maint. and every ID has certain characteristics to it (such as high chance of 12* arm unit drops, but very low drop chance for other units).


I have absolutely no way to prove any of this, especially if certain values are changed daily/weekly. I hope I humored some of you with these whacky ideas of mine.

If short, drop rates are just like slot machines, you just got to be there at the right time and all of the drop boost items that you use are just the equivalent of wearing a horseshoe, 4 leaf clover and lucky rabbit's foot?

[bhaal]

Read this

[ZER0 DX]

Wouldn't surprise me at all if there was a hidden weekly "luck" system like PSU had combined with a time of day thing. It's the only explanation I have for getting two 14* drops in the span of 6 hours two weeks ago. My only dumb theory to tack on is that the team tree boost is more of a hindrance when the boost amount isn't capped. My tree was at 9% until just yesterday (finally) and all 3 of my 14* were obtained without that boost active. Now that it's at 10% maybe that might change... or it's just RNG trolling like usual.

[Electrochemist]

My motto is:

If I get one, I get one.
If I don't, I don't.
If I get a 14* for the class I'm currently playing, awesome, I'll be a bit stronger.
If I get a 14* for the class I'm not currently playing, awesome, I'll go play that class.

Play the game for fun, don't make it an extension of your work or studies, because then what's the fucking point?

[Zorak000]

my money's on them using your player ID number as some part of an arbitrary formula while rolling the RNG

the rest of my :tinfoil: theory is that it also uses an invisible quest/difficulty ID number, and a random number assigned to the block you are on every maintenance; probably more things just to make more stars to align, and do align for some people heh.

no way to really know for sure. maybe hidden section IDs for all we know hahaha.


anyway when you measure odds based on result data, you effectively need the entirety of the data of the results of every roll; so yeah in the grand scheme of things, there might not even be anything going on, and the law of averages simply leaves some people in the dust

[KlTSUNE]

Desire factor... found all of mine with a 250 + Tri...

[catwat]

I really hope there are no hidden mechanics like that haha. Kinda makes me feel i wasted a ton of time grinding when in reality i had no chance at all.

And for the drop rates. Today i was grinding ult for 6 hours and got not a single 13* drop. Took 2 hours off and after i got back to it i found 2 slave and 1 nemesis NT in 30 minutes. I think with items so rare you cant really have any statistically expectation. Like "in 6 hours i should at least get 1 drop" or "I did a thousand runs and by now i should have a 14* drop", stuff like that. I'm also still looking for a 14* drop >_<

[KlTSUNE]

Ultimate has a way lower chance to drop 14* than EQs.

You basically need to mindlessly grind it forever (even then youre probs not getting anything lol)

I really wouldn't run ultimate unless you need anything besides a 14* imo... unless ofc you're running for fun.

[NightlightPro]

doesn't matter how much RDR boost you use.
Rare boost is all fake to me.

also triboost will just lower the chance to drop 13/14* as I get more 13*s when i'm only using 250% RDR