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Al-Rappy
Dec 9, 2002, 05:12 PM
I'd like to start by saying, read everything here, and read carefully so you understand what I'm saying.

My theory is basically as follows:

You find rares in the level and difficulty the game thinks you should be in.

That means if you are level 100 and are playing in Forest on Normal you will find nothing. But if your level 1 and playing in Forest on Normal you'll find things. Mainly Add Slots and Photon Drops though because that is due to the difficulty setting.

Now this also means that if you are only level 10 or so and are playing in Forest Hard than you won't find much. Though that particular example was a bit exagerated, it is an example of a character getting ahead of itself which brings me to:

Most people are getting ahead of themselves, thus not being in the level and difficulty the game thinks you should be in. That is why rares sometimes seem less common.

Now, why and how I came up with this theory:

My character was about level 83 when I entered Ultimate Forest. At that time I was finding tons of rares in Very Hard Ruins. Also I noticed in VH Ruins that my Photon Blasts worked very well. At level 83 in Ult Forest did around 200 damage and I wasn't finding any rares.

At level 96 everything was still the same, photon blasts and rares. Then BAM! Level 97, photon blasts doing over 1000 and tons of rares! Nothing changed but my level and my PB's were significantly better and more rares... just all of a sudden.

In that particular case the game said i was ahead of myself. At level 97 I was no longer ahead of myself so I started to get more rares.

Please post your opinions, I'd like to hear what other people think! And happy 100th post to me!

TeamPhalanx
Dec 9, 2002, 05:18 PM
Nice idea, but incorrect. I got a DOUBLE SABER off of a nano dragon once when I was around level 50 and another time when I was around level 90.

Al-Rappy
Dec 9, 2002, 06:16 PM
This has nothing to do with which rares appear or what enemies you get them from. Also it doesn't mean if you go to Caves on Normal or Hard at level 90 that you'll find nothing, it means that your chances just aren't so great. And you cannot prove that it's incorrect, where's your proof?

Kayumi
Dec 9, 2002, 06:20 PM
Where's your proof that it IS correct? All you have so far is anecdotal evidence from one single player and one single character. To be properly accurate, you need to get a statistical sample of a lot more than that. Not saying you're right or wrong yet, just that you need to have more proof yourself before you start jumping on other people about it.

Al-Rappy
Dec 9, 2002, 06:27 PM
True Kayumi. Sorry about puttin ya down so quickly TeamPhalanx. I guess what I really want out of this topic is if people would post more evidence. Maybe other people have had similar occurances that they could post here.

Heresme89
Dec 9, 2002, 08:15 PM
okay this is a bunch of theories but who cares so here is a list:

1. The more you play an area the better the items you find. EX: Finding more rares or just more scape dolls.

2. You'll find more rares or different types when you hit levels:11,21,31,41,51 or it could be 11,22,33,44,55,66. I know this is true but which set is? Oh and the same goes to the shops on getting better items.

3. Okay a biggie here but you really cant alter this on purpose. In my opinion a box has a set percentage on what items you can get. For ex: nothing=20% weapon=39% armor=39% rare=2% but rememberyou get dif items per each weapon. So no box you get has a 2% chance of a rare. You have 2% of getting a rare box then 1% of getting a rare in that rare box. If you get the other 99% you get diddley.

If you need some more explaining Ill gladly do it. Anyway please contribute to these so I maybe can make a guide.

Annoy
Dec 9, 2002, 08:42 PM
All you have so far is anecdotal evidence from one single player and one single character

AHH! Big word...but anyway..she has a point. I'm level 62 in Very Hard Mode..and within an hour I found 10 Rare items. Then when I went to hard with my brother..I got about 7 in an hour. I think it all depends on whether the game is feeling nice, or decides to hate you for some unknown reason.

Though, it's a very good idea. And right now I'm trying to test it out. Playing as a level 1 'until I get 10 Rares (Photon Drops, Add Slots, etc.) then I'm going to take my level 62 to normal and play 'untill I get 10 rares. For all I know this could take for ever...but bleah..maybe I won't test it out. I'm really lazy. http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_razz.gif Allwell...

Al-Rappy
Dec 9, 2002, 08:45 PM
I'll be doing more testing as well. I have a few other characters I can use to test this out.

Sapphire87
Dec 9, 2002, 08:52 PM
Here's an interesting website regarding the probabilites of enemies dropping rares in DC PSO:

http://www.geocities.com/cid_jp/idreference.htm

I've always wondered how these figures were calculated. Whether this information is valid or not, it makes you wonder why rares are so hard to find sometimes.

Kayumi
Dec 9, 2002, 09:16 PM
All you have so far is anecdotal evidence from one single player and one single character

AHH! Big word...but anyway..she has a point. I'm level 62 in Very Hard Mode..and within an hour I found 10 Rare items. Then when I went to hard with my brother..I got about 7 in an hour. I think it all depends on whether the game is feeling nice, or decides to hate you for some unknown reason.


Don't let the nick and the avatar and the choice of characters fool you...I'm a male.

There's a theory kicking around that the rare drop percentage raises as your total playing time raises, too. Just figured I should add more to the conversation than a specification of my gender.

CajunSamurai
Dec 10, 2002, 01:33 AM
Well, back on DC it was pretty much proven that the longer the playtime on a character, the more goodies you'll find. When a few of my guys hit 300 hours, I was finding some seriously uncommon to rare stuff. I'm assuming it's the same way on this version.

Also... something I'm experimenting with, but similar to the theory that rare monsters appear more often on beat times with 2 digits (115, 244, 004, etc), I'm wondering if rare items appear more often during these double digit times. Last night I found my first Justy from a barble (might've been a bartle) on my Skyly ID when I'd never found one before, and it was during this double digit sweet spot. Could be a coincidence though, as my playtime is nearing 150 hours.

I'm pretty convinced though that there's a little more to it than playtime... Good theories so far.

Kayumi
Dec 10, 2002, 01:50 AM
I passed 150 hours a while ago, and I noted the 2-digit beat time theory. I've been checking it in both TP tricking and rare-hunting...so far, it's never actually been applicable during any of the finds I've had, but I think I was only looking at the LAST two digits, not any two-in-a-row. That could still be viable.

I also haven't found a whole ton of rares in the immediate past...but there was a point where I got three or four in a short period of time.

All I'm waiting for now is a rare rifle or two (which my RAmarl's secID isn't the best for, as I wanted shots for some reason when I made her) and some nice armor--I'm a good ten-fifteen levels higher than the requirements for the one I've got...

Rhete
Dec 10, 2002, 02:01 AM
On 2002-12-09 14:12, Al-Rappy wrote:

You find rares in the level and difficulty the game thinks you should be in.

Thats why my level 53 HUcaseal has found a sacred cloth and 2 red handguns in ult forest

Goza
Dec 10, 2002, 04:18 AM
I'm beginning to agree. Today I did a butt load of quests and so went through forest and caves over and over, and netted one add slot (first I've ever seen, now in VHard).

Then I dicked around in the mines and found 4 proto regen gear, 1 photon drop, a blade dance, a mace of adaman, and some good wizard/technique type stuff.

Then I dicked around in the ruins and got a db's shield, wals mk2, and a delsaber's right. I spent much less time in the ruins than I did forest OR caves by far.

I'm on level 70 now, and procrastinating getting to Ultimate, so I'm inclined to accept your theory for now, unless I suddenly find loads of magic rocks and stag cutleries next time I do caves runs :-

OmegaofTime
Dec 10, 2002, 07:26 AM
There is no theory for the way rares appear and such. From what I've observed from the rare drops and appearance of monster more has to do with statistics. In order for something to be rare, it has to be 1-5%. There is a chart of this in my statistics text book dealing with equal chance, rare, and impossible-which I don't have because I donated it.

In order to balance rares among 500+ players, Sonic Team has to make the % of finding these rare items exceedingly low. This is just speculation, but I think that the rare system is more akin to a buffed up slot machine. That's why if you go to Vegas or any casino, a hand full of people only get jackpots or whatever and the rest get somewhat of a win.

If you put the rules of statistics to work with the pipe trick, you find out that doing a pipe trick on 6 rappies is no different from 7 and 5 is not different from 4. Why? Because the % between 4 and 5 and 6 and 7 or so low that is very insignificant.

I can easily test this on my MUD (I run an online text rpg) that I run and set up monster with different % to drop and kill thousands of monsters one by one. From doing this, I can simulate PSO's speculated rare system.

Anyways, that's my two cents. I hope people find this useful. PSO is just based on luck except unlike a casino, it's free. The more you play, the better your chance is to find something of notable mention.

EDIT: Most likely it's done the same way Diablo is. Blizzard's way is efficient and works.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: OmegaofTime on 2002-12-11 13:33 ]</font>

CorneliusPower
Dec 10, 2002, 08:23 AM
My lvl 90 HUmar Purplenum found a Branch of Paku Paku on VHard setting in forest on a common Gobooma. I quickly pressed start on my controller and notice my beat time ended with a 1. 121 i think. Hmmm. I do this with every rare i find....so far no pattern, just with the Paku Paku, which is pretty rare, i noticed the beat time ended with a 1. My 2 cents, Peace.

OmegaofTime
Dec 10, 2002, 08:58 AM
The beat time thing is very illogical. If you have 500+ people playing at beat 121, 131, 141 and so forth, you'd see a huge flood of rare monsters, plus it becomes too predictable. Also, note the fact that there are some people who do play 24/7 and not find anything. This system would be too inconvenient and unlikely. I'm guessing Sonic Team were fans of the first Diablo and probably based it on the rare system it used. I would dismiss the beat thing entirely because it's a ridiculous system on paper and would prove to be in a virtual test.



On 2002-12-10 05:23, CorneliusPower wrote:
My lvl 90 HUmar Purplenum found a Branch of Paku Paku on VHard setting in forest on a common Gobooma. I quickly pressed start on my controller and notice my beat time ended with a 1. 121 i think. Hmmm. I do this with every rare i find....so far no pattern, just with the Paku Paku, which is pretty rare, i noticed the beat time ended with a 1. My 2 cents, Peace.

Armok
Dec 10, 2002, 09:08 AM
After basically getting my theory accepted on DC edition let me justtell it to all u beat time/lv/hrs played ppl

A computer cannot generate a number at random (even humans cannot do this).

Inside all programs is a random number table (if u have ever done maths at collage u will have seen one they really lame)

When the program is started the cpu will pick a place to start on this table (most prob bases starting point on time). It will then use this table to base which monsters will drop rares during the game.

The game pre-desides what it is going to drop

Evidence:
A> on dc if cheater started a game nothing was dropped
B> If cheater joined game rares were dropped
C> IF u became disconcected the game would play for while and foes would drop stuff.
D> If reconected those foes would still exist and would drop the exact same items (u heard me)
E> The creator of the games id is used even if he/she leaves (yes i know the tekker changes it still doesnt matter)

I aint worked out GC but it prob the same so dont bother checking.

CrashCat
Dec 10, 2002, 11:56 AM
But they can base the random number table changes on whatever they want, including something infeasible to replicate, like the hundredths of seconds on the system clock. In order to be a uniform distribution and be considered 'random' (as much as they can do, anyway) there will be times when it seems like there's a pattern. If there weren't times when things dropped sparsely and times when it was rares all around, it wouldn't be a uniform distribution.

Annoy
Dec 10, 2002, 01:39 PM
Don't let the nick and the avatar and the choice of characters fool you...I'm a male.


Sorry 'bout that...I really wasn't paying any attention to the nick...just the avatar...anyway... sorry ._.;

Kayumi
Dec 10, 2002, 01:54 PM
The thing about all these theories is that they're really nothing but speculation. None of it is really going to be provable or disprovable unless and until someone goes inside the code of the game and finds out exactly what formula IS used.

I tend to assume that it's a random-number-generator using a combination of factors as seeds--what level your character is, the beat time, how long you've been playing, your secID...

But it could be something completely different. For all anyone knows, it's based solely on the beat time when you start the game, and if you pick a bad time to start, you won't earn anything.

(That's a possibility, btw, a similar system is used in slot machines. When or how you pull the lever doesn't affect a damn thing--the outcome is determined the second you slip the coin in. That's when the random number generator stops.)

Al-Rappy
Dec 10, 2002, 03:03 PM
The thing about all these theories is that they're really nothing but speculation. None of it is really going to be provable or disprovable unless and until someone goes inside the code of the game and finds out exactly what formula IS used.

I tend to assume that it's a random-number-generator using a combination of factors as seeds--what level your character is, the beat time, how long you've been playing, your secID...

But it could be something completely different. For all anyone knows, it's based solely on the beat time when you start the game, and if you pick a bad time to start, you won't earn anything.


I have a feeling Kayumi is right. My theory was most likely wrong. It's basically impossible to prove any theories without looking at the actual programing, like Kayumi said. Maybe it's time to ask Sonic Team... ok stupid idea, they wouldn't tell us.

Anybody have any other thoughts on the matter?

OmegaofTime
Dec 10, 2002, 03:29 PM
No, Armok is very right. I remember back in my programming class too that cpus cannot generate random stuff out of the air. When certain games are loaded or whatever, everything is predetermined and stuff. To clarify this, let's use something simple as an example.

Final Fantasy 2 SNES - Emulation
Let's say you walk Cecil outside a town to the overhead world and save the game in a save state file. After a certain number of walks, he'll encounter a monster. If you reload the state and walk a different direction no matter what, he will encounter a monster at the same number of steps.
If you were able to use save states in more recent games, I'm sure you'd see this too such as in Diablo II.

In PSO GC, the moment you enter Forest 1, a randomizer of some sort fixes every monster in the area to hold that item. These fixed drops will not change until you telepipe back to Pioneer and re-enter where it, randomized. Beats do not play a role in this because of the way things are randomized beforehand

I do not believe that you can program any other way around this because of the nature of the CPU and programming. (I think)

Corelton
Dec 10, 2002, 04:01 PM
Everyones theories are great but (just to make this conversation longer) aren't we forgeting about the luck statistic? I don't care what any of you say it's for, it's gotta have something to do with when a character can find rares. But anyways as ummm.. one of you said we can't know for sure unless Sonic Team actually tells us.. which they won't. So for now lets just continue to speculate.

Johan
Dec 11, 2002, 06:15 AM
Sometimes I don't even believe that time thing.

My level 80 (yes, I know, my profile/sig/etc. are out of date) RAmarl has like 450 hours clocked (left the cube on to run the clock up several times), and yet I have not seen a single special weapon in three clears of the entire VHard Ruins now plus three half clears and one full clear of Ultimate Mines.

Not ONE.

I was level 74 when I got my last Special Weapon, another no-% Vise. Am I just getting dicked? Even on DC (where I was the same crappy Yellowboze ID) the drops weren't THIS bad.

TedEdFred
Dec 11, 2002, 06:42 AM
In DC PSO total hours had nothing to do with finding rares. But when you neared the next 100 and just after, your chances of finding rares was a bit better.

I haven't played enough Ep. I & II to know if this is still true.

MalambisBZ
Dec 11, 2002, 07:13 AM
I bet PSO uses drop tables just like Diablo 2. Many items are grouped into treasure classes and each monster has a % to drop these treasure classes.

See:
http://www.afterlifeguild.org/Thott/d2/monster/abyssknight_hell.html

Zecht
Dec 11, 2002, 07:25 AM
i just randomly went on last night, took a telepipe into the vr temple alpha, killed a lo dimenian, and got a blade dance. on hard. just randomly found it. pretty sweet. i don't think there is a pattern to all this rare finding.

CorneliusPower
Dec 11, 2002, 07:35 AM
I believe what many of U have said before. once you enter an area like Forest, a slot machine pull has been released, destroyimg boxes and monsters is determined on when they are killed and when they are destroyed.....going back to Pioneer 2 simply resets the pull of the slot machine lever...kill a gigobooma at the right time, and BAM! you have his right arm. It is in fact easier to aquire a gigobooma arm than a del sabre arm, then in that case, in the slot machine the del sabre arm doesnt circulate as often as the gigobooma, thus making the del sabre arm more RARE so to speak or harder to aquire. I STILL believe rares to be found as LUCK. Luck materials are rare as well. Maybe this has a part to play, your LUCK stats on your character. Only Yuji Naka and his staff can tell you the hard truth, in which they wont. Maybe just a genius program in which all of the above play a part and all rares are truly random and so to speak RARE. Hmmm. My 2 cents, peace.

rena-ko
Dec 11, 2002, 08:02 AM
when the items to be dropped/boxed at an area really get set when the area is loaded, then you have to swipe the whole area in one turn - no pipeing back to town - and kill everything/open every box.

but maybe every enemy gets its drop set when it gets loaded - like you enter a new room, the enemies, their spawning place, spawning time gets set according to the level-script and the item that gets dropped gets randomized and set, too.


maybe theres even a 4bit-counter for enemies you killed - counts till (4?) 16 (and starts new once it hits 16 = 0). then the drop is defined when an enemy gets killed and somehow it maybe math that killcounter with the system time or something like that and a drop table (which is obvious since there are drop-percentages for rares in version2)...

but that does not explain why i get 1 agito2001 and 2 cross scars (no... maybe not... but 2 times the highest weapon that a skyly can find) in one run through hard mines2 at dc-version2 with my (that time) lv42 RAcast...
the first solution does, however i'd prefer "the 'drop' gets determined when you actually kill something"... ^_^;;

edit:
@corneliuspower
sounds really plausible.
(only reason i dont delete my post is that i spent more than half an hour to write this... *laughs*)

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: rena-ko on 2002-12-11 05:11 ]</font>

MalambisBZ
Dec 11, 2002, 09:03 AM
I'm pretty sure luck only determines the critical hit %. Not item drops.

Goza
Dec 11, 2002, 09:39 AM
I posted some more possible evidence for your level versus area idea on the Quest board under "GREENILL Rare Finds." I forget the exact capitalization.

Needless to say, I think the idea is stronger from my recent experience.

Al-Rappy
Dec 11, 2002, 03:30 PM
For those who think your Luck stat has anything to do with rares: Luck is only for critical hits!

And to add more proof (sorta) to my original theory:

My lv 31 FOnewearl is in Hard Ruins. She isn't finding much there. But if I take her to Hard Forest and Normal Ruins she finds Photon Drops and Add Slots quite frequently, one of those atleast every run through. That's another example of a character too far ahead and not finding much.

Last but not least, a topic like this should be made a sticky because this may go on for awhile and newcomers may like to read up on the subject.

Goza
Dec 11, 2002, 03:56 PM
Okay, being a programmer, here are some technical two cents.

1) When you get the pipe-in loading screen, that's when the level is being laid out. I definitely agree with that. Makes me think of Toe Jam and Earl.

2) As for monster types having certain drop categories, that's definitely true. Every Vhard rag rappy drops an expensive green shield for me. Also, rares tend to be located on the same monster type, hence a findings table. Both rather obvious. It could have to do with a value range (which would explain the rappy drops) or it could have to do with a specific class being more frequent.

3) The drop is based on some random factor and a structure of statistics. This is just common sense, as there is really no other good way to do it. When the level is laid out, within each monster type's range, they are loaded with a percent possibility of items with a very low order assigned to rares. This random factor is probably seeded to a more complex algorithm than the time clock. It's still pseudo-random and may include beat time, but that wouldn't be the determining factor. Sonic Team put together way too good of a game to make that mistake.

Now for speculation...

1) Time and difficulty in areas could affect the chance somewhat simply because that is a motivation to move through the game and face challenges rather than just level up until you own everything. Some games do similar things, such as decrease exp if you kill the same monster type over and over.

2) My rare finds tend to come in waves when I move to a "new" area. Again, this could be due to anything. But, if it isn't just luck, lends support to speculation number 1.

3) Luck shouldn't have anything to do with it. It could, but I rather hope not. You could just make a character who uses 150 luck mats and find rares more often. That would kind of ruin it. They're called rares for a reason.

Any thoughts?

Kayumi
Dec 11, 2002, 03:59 PM
If it's going on for a while, every time someone posts to it it will be moved back to the top of the list, immediately below the sticky topics. Making it sticky wouldn't serve any purpose unless and until someone actually proves one or another of the theories to be true.

And the fact of the matter is that there's still no real proof for any of the theories. It's going to be impossible to prove.

The most likely setup is a combination of factors.

Each monster has a set chance of dropping each type of item. Every drop is determined by a random-number-generator seeded by the exact time (perhaps using the internal clock, perhaps using beat time, or specific time within the beat--doesn't matter, as it amounts to more or less the same idea) when one enters the level. Telepiping to and from the level will reset all boxes/monster drops that have not been dropped.

Also, the percentage for drops is affected by section ID and difficulty. It's also relatively likely that there's several levels of "rare" percentages. I.e. instead of having a booma with a 3% chance of dropping a "rare" you might have it with a 3% chance of dropping a rare, further subdivided into how good said rare will be--if it's decided it's a rare, it's got, say, 25% chance to be a common rare for that secID, 15% to be a Photon Drop or Addslot, and so on, with high-star-count, out-of-ID rare types having a small percentage.

And the rare-sets are of course determined by the secID of the person who started the session.

That's the way I figure the game works. But it really doesn't matter HOW it drops rares, because if I'm right, it's going to be completely random. Which is to say, NOTHING YOU OR I OR ANYONE DOES can give a better or worse chance of finding them, no matter what, because when all is said and done, it STILL boils down to a random number generator. Whether or not you can figure out exactly the way the system works and get the exact formula to figure out how the seed is generated, you'd still have to be able to time your pipes to the MILLISECOND. Because computers don't use time the way we do.

Thus, making the topic sticky won't do anyone else any good. All we're really doing is debating theoretical possibilities for how something random is determined, and that makes the entire discussion rhetorical. Until and unless someone figures out a sure-fire way of GUARANTEEING rare drops, all we're doing is theory.

Which is not to say it's not a valid discussion. Just that it's not something everyone NEEDS to know to play, nor even something that's helpful outside of this discussion.

OmegaofTime
Dec 11, 2002, 04:28 PM
There isn't any speculation to this.
It's the limitations of programming and the way the CPU follows set and structured rules.

You cannot have the game follow beats, seconds, or whatever you want to throw into it. If the CPU had to keep itself jogging just to calculate drop patterns the whole time while you play, it would probably fry the Cube and slow down the whole game.
Combine this with four people on the screen with special effects and you have a problem. There is no games out there that can do these type of things real time.

In order to program these types of things, you choose a programming method to accomplish it which leads to elimination. Most games are built around a programming method or rules that are already there. That is why when you take programming classes, everybody learns the same stuff, it's just the programming style that differs.

Goza
Dec 11, 2002, 04:34 PM
Although I doubt it, it could be based on the "time" when the level is loaded. It could also maybe be based on the time each monster goes down. Gamecube could handle that. But that is inefficient and highly unlikely.

Overall, the only way I think time would be a factor is the very menial role it plays in more complex pseudo-randomization algorithms.

Kayumi
Dec 11, 2002, 04:39 PM
It doesn't follow all that all the time. It follows it once. When the level loads. It uses the beat time as a seed for the random generator while the level is loading, and after that everything has been locked. It's not generating the drops as the monsters are killed, it's generating the drops and rare enemies for the ENTIRE LEVEL while you're telepiping down.

(Hypothetically, of course.)

And we can't judge it based on whether the Cube could handle the processes, but by whether the Dreamcast could. I doubt they did much but juggle percentages around a bit to make rares a little more common when they switched over.

I remember when I was taking programming classes back in high school. The way we were always told to seed our pseudo-random number generator was using the time in the internal clock. That particular method works quite well, as it's going to have a different seed every time you use it. Different enough that it won't come up with the same set of numbers every time. And the processor could handle it--if a 386 in the computer labs in my high school could do it, I'm sure that the DC and GC are more than capable of doing so.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Kayumi on 2002-12-11 13:44 ]</font>

Al-Rappy
Dec 11, 2002, 05:12 PM
I agree with Kayumi. The rares most likely are set up when telepiping down to a level. But this also means that the chances of rares appearing could increse or decrease depending on alot of things. That is what we should try to find out. If the percentage of a rare being dropped from a Booma increases from 3% to 6% just because of the beat time you pipe down then that would be great.

This brings me back to my original theory of being in the level you are supposed to be in. What if you telepipe down to that level and because your in the level you should be in then the percentage of rares dropped from each enemy may be increased. If your in a level you shouldn't be in then the percentage might decrease.

So if we find out how to increase the percentage (if it's even possible) then we could be using that to get more rares.

Any thoughts?

Kayumi
Dec 11, 2002, 05:27 PM
Complexity.

It's possible, but the game would have to have a list of what levels correspond with each class's "supposed to be in" list. It's not likely that the programmers would use such a complex method of determining rare drops. It's always best to assume that they've used the simplest possible method, rather than adding in more and more complex variables. The more variables that are introduced to the equation, the more difficult it becomes to code, and the more difficult it would be to predict. Chances are that the theory of "being where you're supposed to be" is not accurate. There still isn't a lot of evidence to support it, especially since much of the anecdotal evidence which has been supplied by others now contradicts the evidence originally supplied in support of that theory. Any of the theoretical discussion of how the game decides when to drop what where cannot be applied as supporting evidence to prove or disprove any of the proposed formulae, either, except where they directly contradict, in which case one must decide which possibility to support.

I still feel that by far the most likely setup for rare drops is a simple pseudorandomizer, with the minimum number of variables affecting it (I.e. monster type, secID of game-opener, and difficulty level being the only real factors that should come into play.)

Anything else puts too much complexity into the system for it to reliably drop any rares. And it's still doubtful that there will be any way of using a formula like this to improve chances of getting rares, because the pseudorandomizer seed, if it DOES rely on time, could be based on the internal clock, not the displayed beat time--and remember, the beats have sub-time, as represented by the little green bar beneath the beat time, which must also be taken into consideration.

In the end, this discussion really doesn't do much good outside a theoretical exercise, since nobody's going to be able to prove or disprove their theories to the point where everyone can agree that it is indeed correct without going into the code, as I noted before, and even if they do, if the seed for the pseudorandomizer is, as has been suggested and generally accepted due to lack of other proposals, based on time, it's going to be very difficult to time the telepipe down to the milliseconds which the code can be using to generate the seed. Which all boils down to me saying "yeah, sure, it's a nice thing to talk about, and fun, but in the end we'll never get more rares from knowing."

That's the meat of the issue--knowing how the random generation works doesn't make it any easier to control.

harmfulcow
Dec 11, 2002, 06:47 PM
all your theorys suck, ive played pso for 125 hours now and the best rare ive found is a justy or yamato, all the damn rares i find are s**t i may be a yellowboze but i should have found a lot more good rares in my 125 hours.

Al-Rappy
Dec 11, 2002, 08:32 PM
harmfulcow, 150 hours isn't that long. Don't act like you've played longer than everybody else here because you haven't. I'm closing in on 250 hours myself.

Johan
Dec 11, 2002, 08:47 PM
cow, got an extra justy? I can't even find those, the last 6 specials I did find over a week ago were _all_ vises

Kayumi
Dec 11, 2002, 10:39 PM
On 2002-12-11 15:47, harmfulcow wrote:
all your theorys suck, ive played pso for 125 hours now and the best rare ive found is a justy or yamato, all the damn rares i find are s**t i may be a yellowboze but i should have found a lot more good rares in my 125 hours.



So you have bad luck with something that's entirely random.

And that makes all our theories suck.

Did you even READ some of them?

Al-Rappy
Dec 12, 2002, 06:23 AM
On 2002-12-11 19:39, Kayumi wrote:


On 2002-12-11 15:47, harmfulcow wrote:
all your theorys suck, ive played pso for 125 hours now and the best rare ive found is a justy or yamato, all the damn rares i find are s**t i may be a yellowboze but i should have found a lot more good rares in my 125 hours.



So you have bad luck with something that's entirely random.

And that makes all our theories suck.

Did you even READ some of them?



Lol. I'm guessing he didn't. I also forgot to mention before that I'm yellowboze as well and I find good stuff all the time.