On the brink of war?

[Gaderffii]

This whole crisis with Turkey and the PKK is going to end well... I think that the middle east is on the edge of war, but i want your opions too. By the way, Its nice to be back.

[mizukage]

My apologies, what does PKK mean???

[Sinue_v2]

I think Turkey will invade, and perhaps capture parts or the entirety of northern Iraq. The US will denounce them, but will eventually opt to keep them as an ally and will force a hastening of our withdrawal as the rest of the country degrades into open civil war. We'll likely keep a small presence there as a peacekeeping and humanitarian force.

I don't know how Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qutar, and other middle eastern countries will react. However most of them are either aligned with the Shiites or Sunni, and the Kurds don't have many allies. Although I might speculate that other countries will use Iraq as a proxy war to fight each other if they are so inclined, but I doubt it will lead to open warfare across the region.

[Gaderffii]

PKK - Kurdistan Workers Party.

You make a very interesting point there. The kurds don't have many allies, but if Turkey does einvade Iraq, just one US death would send the region into chaos. I'm not saying that Turkey will deliberately attack us, but that a soldier might get i=killed in the crossfire. If anything happens, I think Mr. Prezidunt will say Turkey needed to do what it needed to do and oil prices will go back down. HOWEVER, what if Iran gets cocky and attacks its kurds? Hmm.. may be some conflict there =(.

[Sinue_v2]

I don't see any reason for Iran to attack the Kurds. They might not like them, but they're not overtly hostile to them. At worst, I can see them increasing aid to the Shiite factions in Iraq in hopes that the Kurds will be crushed between the Turkish troops and the Shiites factions. If the Shiites can take northern Iraq, then Iran may try to legitimize any government that may form in occupied territories and use them as an extension of their power in the region. That is, of course, unless the Sunni can hold them back as they'd obviously be the next on the chopping block. Saddam Hussein was a devout Sunni, and after Iran/Iraq conflicts I can't see Iran wanting to see Iraq fall back into Sunni control if they can help it. If things come down to it, the Kurds may actually find a temporary ally in the Sunni if for no other reason than "The enemy of my enemy".

Make no mistake though, that any official Iranian involvement in Iraq will lead to an Allied strike on Iran - especially the US, as our government seems to be looking for ANY excuse for bombing Tehran. They know how badly we want to hit them, and they're not going to be sticking their necks out while we've got the axe raised and ready to strike.

As for Turkey accidentally killing a US soldier, I would be willing to bet that in that event - the killing would be glazed over and forgotten to keep from escalating the situation. We're allied with both the Kurds and Turkey, so it's difficult to proceed without injuring or straining relationships with either faction - especially since their fight is already spilling onto our battleground and being fought with the very dogma we've used to justify the Iraq war in the first place. The difference being, the PKK actually DOES pose a threat to Turkey (as opposed to Saddam who realistically posed little to no threat to the US). So to say that Turkey cannot fight back against terrorism is a "Do as I say, not as I do". It's hypocritical to say the least, and highly damaging to the already battered US image.

It's a difficult position to be sure, but I don't think it means storms of fire will engulf the middle-east anytime soon. I think, as I said, it'll likely just force our withdrawal and leave Iraq to the wolves. Or at least different wolves.

Of course, I could just be talking out my ass without any real grasp on the situation. http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_smile.gif

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Sinue_v2 on 2007-10-22 21:38 ]</font>

[KodiaX987]

You can't begin something that's already been going on for decades.