wtf man, failed synths

[Para]

Synths I've failed in a row just recently...

Rikauteri
Cubo Tuma
Cubo Tuma
Cubo Tuma


in a row...
and each one has 85% success... so yeah -_-

is it a fucking crime to give my newman GT a little love?

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Para on 2008-05-21 18:03 ]</font>

[Anduril]

Why couldn't you just wait for the synth increase? But seriously, that's just the luck of the draw. Afterall there is that 15% chance of failure, and I doubt the game record each failure so each synth is just like rolling the die for the first time. But I feel your pain.

[Powder Keg]

I think the game is secretly punishing those who don't wait for the bonus. Making a new character (thus getting rid of my armor PM til I make it again) during MAG took priority over the Orpa-Senba board I had...so I figured I'd give it a try....fail.


Also had a Shura Hiken I wanted to make Lightning for future MAG runs....fail again.

I'm not synthing another damn thing until the boost now.

[amtalx]

On 2008-05-21 18:07, Anduril wrote:
Why couldn't you just wait for the synth increase?

[Para]

because i wanted to synth some new equip for my newman GT to use for the event.

[Chuck_Norris]

Heh, ironic. I just synthed a Rikauteri, and it wasn't even a 100 range PM yet. http://www.pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_lol.gif

[drizzle]

As much as it sucks, you deserve it for not having the patience to wait for the boost =P

[Raine_Loire]

On 2008-05-21 20:00, amtalx wrote:

On 2008-05-21 18:07, Anduril wrote:
Why couldn't you just wait for the synth increase?

[thunder-ray]

Like everyone else said you shouldve just waited untill we got the synth boost.

[Broodstar1337]

For the people going "lol should've waited for the boost"...

What are you gonna say when there's no more synthesis boost to look forward to anymore? "LOL JUST DON'T SYNTH ANYTHING ANYMORE". Sure, there's added success to be had in waiting for boosts, but a lot of the best stuff anyone has came from them rolling the dice before events came along to throw everyone a bone.

The boost won't even bring every single synth up to 100% chance of success anyway. If people can fail repeated synths that all have high chances of success, why bother waiting anyway? It's a 50-50 chance every single motherfucking time you synth anything that's not guaranteed success; either you succeed or you fail.

[Blueblur]

You're absolutely right, Broodstar. You take chances with synthesizing items and its always going to be that way. If you really need and/or want the item, go for it by all means.

[McLaughlin]

I broke the bank buying a Rikauteri board, so I'm just going to wait for the boost. Same with my Shinowa Lines. I waited forever to get them, I can wait a little longer to make sure they work.

[Para]

Im quite aware of the chances but still bad luck and Im entitled to bitch about bad luck.

With MA:G temporarily halted for now, I don't know whether to sit around and wait for the rewards or try synthing again.

Really it has be discouraged to play with shit ever failing in my face.

[CelestialBlade]

I still stand by my opinion that synth success percents mean ABSOLUTELY NOTHING and it's really a flip-of-the-coin no matter what.

[Sol_B4dguy]

Only things I'm waiting to make are my Rucar and the Shinowa Line. Everything else is fair game as far as I'm concerned.

[Shiro_Ryuu]

That sucks. ._.

[Kylie]

Geez, failed four s-ranks in a row? I say conspiracy. :disapprove:

[Neith]

For the people going "lol should've waited for the boost"...

What are you gonna say when there's no more synthesis boost to look forward to anymore? "LOL JUST DON'T SYNTH ANYTHING ANYMORE". Sure, there's added success to be had in waiting for boosts, but a lot of the best stuff anyone has came from them rolling the dice before events came along to throw everyone a bone.

The boost won't even bring every single synth up to 100% chance of success anyway. If people can fail repeated synths that all have high chances of success, why bother waiting anyway? It's a 50-50 chance every single motherfucking time you synth anything that's not guaranteed success; either you succeed or you fail.

:disapprove: I'm one of these people refusing to synth until the bonus. If there definately wasn't going to be a bonus, I'd have put my boards in to synth already. But since you know, a 20% boost is a confirmed MAG reward, I don't see why a lot of people aren't waiting. It sucks you guys are all failing synths, but with a synth boost down the road, unless you desperately needed that rare NOW, you should've waited. Before anyone says "LOL SEGAC WONT GIB REWARDS", or something else idiotic, remember that we've already had reward periods from Firebreak and 1up. They may have taken a couple of weeks to be implemented, but we did get them. Sega may have had a less than stellar rep lately, but just give it some time for these rewards. If we haven't seen them a month after MAG really ends, then yeah, there'd be a cause for complaining.

As for the 50-50 synth chances..basic probability rears its ugly head. A 75, 85, hell, even 99% success synth does not say 'Free rarz in your hands'. It says 75%, or 85%, or 99%. You're bound to fail some. As unlucky as it is, and I do sympathize with people who have failed something rare, you can't moan about the system because it doesn't say 100% anywhere, unless it's something like a Halp Serafi.

Finally, before anyone thinks I haven't failed anything good- see failed Rikauteri/Tesbra/Castest Line.

[Nitro Vordex]

The first thing I synthed had an 82% rate.

I got an item. ._.

[Para]

:disapprove: I'm one of these people refusing to synth until the bonus. If there definately wasn't going to be a bonus, I'd have put my boards in to synth already. But since you know, a 20% boost is a confirmed MAG reward, I don't see why a lot of people aren't waiting. It sucks you guys are all failing synths, but with a synth boost down the road, unless you desperately needed that rare NOW, you should've waited. Before anyone says "LOL SEGAC WONT GIB REWARDS", or something else idiotic, remember that we've already had reward periods from Firebreak and 1up. They may have taken a couple of weeks to be implemented, but we did get them. Sega may have had a less than stellar rep lately, but just give it some time for these rewards. If we haven't seen them a month after MAG really ends, then yeah, there'd be a cause for complaining.

As for the 50-50 synth chances..basic probability rears its ugly head. A 75, 85, hell, even 99% success synth does not say 'Free rarz in your hands'. It says 75%, or 85%, or 99%. You're bound to fail some. As unlucky as it is, and I do sympathize with people who have failed something rare, you can't moan about the system because it doesn't say 100% anywhere, unless it's something like a Halp Serafi.

Finally, before anyone thinks I haven't failed anything good- see failed Rikauteri/Tesbra/Castest Line.lol i pretty much understand that its luck but man I got some shitty luck lol

[beatrixkiddo]

>___>

[Nitro Vordex]

For all of you people waiting for the synth boost:

I am so gonna lmao when you fail anyways.

[thunder-ray]

Well if my stuff fails even with the 20% boost then its no big deal to me. Ill just find another one and try my luck again untill it works. I only wait cuz when it comes to me and 75% to 100% success my synths most the time work. I just want that extra 20% to make some of the weps I wana synth hit 100% so they dont fail at all.

[Nitro Vordex]

Just remember, you can always leave it to ST to fuck up a 100% synth rate.

[thunder-ray]

Just remember, you can always leave it to ST to fuck up a 100% synth rate.

Yeah you have a good point their..... the day that ever happens i dont think ill be mad. Ill laugh my ass off on how badly ST couldve fucked that up.

[Kylie]

For all of you people waiting for the synth boost:

I am so gonna lmao when you fail anyways.
Well, I'm mainly waiting for my a ranks that I want to synth because I always get the short end of the stick when synthing 60% chance stuff; I end up failing two out of three. :(

[Para]

Well, I'm mainly waiting for my a ranks that I want to synth because I always get the short end of the stick when synthing 60% chance stuff; I end up failing two out of three. :(

Yeah A ranks are testy D:

To be honest though... atleast A ranks don't cost you 2 mil or more a board and like another 2 million or more in materials.

[leblancdiaz]

Yeah A ranks are testy D:

To be honest though... atleast A ranks don't cost you 2 mil or more a board and like another 2 million or more in materials.

Amen, I don't know what has happened to my character with percentages. Back in the good old days I still remember when the percentage rate was very bleak. People were scared of making a 7 stars. Hell, we work for are 7 stars and we thought that was a rare. Only to get a board and have it blown up in are face. Sure at the time, it was the beginning of the economy break down. I remember spending all of my money on making a pure parter machinery four times just to try each one out.

Sure there is some of us who don't have time for alts. That and there was very little information with the partner machinery at the time. Lots of us made stupid mistakes with partner machinery I'm not the only one.

As time went on the partner machinery percentages went up I was making A rank phantoms like there was no tomorrow. I think it was 6 months or less after the release of Phantasy Star Universe that I started to sense a change with the percentages and me being able to produce different variety of items.

Then it seemed to return to normal and returning back to failing nearly everything that I produced. So I said the hell with it I wasn't going to waste any more money or time on it and was quite ticked. I put it off for a while then when more information came out and partner machinery evolving I decided to give it one more try.

It was deja-vu all over again everything was being made for a bit and it went back to failing everything. Me being stubborn and not wanting to quit a second time I spent more millions and tried to have items made only to have it blown up in my face.

Then percentages went up again and I'm thinking whats the point when you spend x amount for the board, x amount for the mats, waste x amount of time creating the item, then on a good day with 3 luck and even after feeding your partner machinery bam you lose good day sir!.

I have a friend who is bad as much as me his rate of synthing is 1/9. For every successful item we create, nine others fail and this is pre S rank. This is on a pure partner machinery and things that aren't suppose to fail, fail epically.

It's like my gamers store were I live. They finally notice me from time to time and provide bad quality of service. They won't sell games, they won't look for games in there system, tell me and my friends to leave because it's bad for the business to be here. They have signs for hiring people all the time but they won't take "nerds" that would give there heart and soul to work in a game store. Sure I could add more countless excuses or bad service puns. Also I have ten thousand dollars plus worth of games, consoles, tv's, electronics etc etc sure I will admit it.

It's my hobby, it's what I do between work and college. This is the one thing that has helped me escape reality. A game is meant to be fun despite how useless it may be. Sure but let's put in the factors when games becomes reality. Yes I play violent video games, Yes I hate Jack Thompson. Will I use it in reality against man kind? No. Yes I have a mental problem which I'm not getting into.

If I could have one day were I wasn't held responsible for the repercussions, it be indescribable.
Okay, enough with my life.

Back to Phantasy Star Universe. Even with S ranks I fail everyone except the one in the blue moon. Having a 1/9 ratio ain't that good. Countless millions I spent buying what is needed only to have it wasted.

What I do hate though is this when people go bragging that they can make everything under the sun and not have one thing fail you know who you are I'm not pointing fingers. When I first made my first S rank I was praying to the Phantasy Star Universe Gods that I create it I was also making a alcoholic beverage in the mean time just to be safe.

As for the boost in percentages I won't even attempt it. With the 10,15,20 etc etc boost with an 86 percent start. I will still fail epically and this is with the 3 star luck for 2 weeks. It draws me to conclusions:

Did something happen between the eras of time that I neglected making my partner machinery due to lack of funds that I am unaware of?

Are there others that are being cursed for things we didn't do when it comes to making items?

Why is it that none S rank percentages are 20 - 30 percent lower in successfully creating the item?

The questions will be ever unsolved and it's going to be really hard to recuperate from the amount I spent well wasted on because you can only replace certain materials until they are discontinued or replaced with others the sell factor isn't what it use to be, and people demand way to high expectations.

So if anyone has had similar experiences or care to share interest on this post, it will be greatly appreciated.

[F-Gattaca]

:disapprove: I'm one of these people refusing to synth until the bonus. If there definately wasn't going to be a bonus, I'd have put my boards in to synth already. But since you know, a 20% boost is a confirmed MAG reward, I don't see why a lot of people aren't waiting. It sucks you guys are all failing synths, but with a synth boost down the road, unless you desperately needed that rare NOW, you should've waited. Before anyone says "LOL SEGAC WONT GIB REWARDS", or something else idiotic, remember that we've already had reward periods from Firebreak and 1up. They may have taken a couple of weeks to be implemented, but we did get them. Sega may have had a less than stellar rep lately, but just give it some time for these rewards. If we haven't seen them a month after MAG really ends, then yeah, there'd be a cause for complaining.

As for the 50-50 synth chances..basic probability rears its ugly head. A 75, 85, hell, even 99% success synth does not say 'Free rarz in your hands'. It says 75%, or 85%, or 99%. You're bound to fail some. As unlucky as it is, and I do sympathize with people who have failed something rare, you can't moan about the system because it doesn't say 100% anywhere, unless it's something like a Halp Serafi.

Finally, before anyone thinks I haven't failed anything good- see failed Rikauteri/Tesbra/Castest Line.

Hot damn. I'm not alone!

I personally am getting sick of the "lol segac fails" 'humor' that gets bandied about as well. Right after your post, you get people snarking that "segac will fail a 100% chance."

I'm guessing that's based on the leaving out the world "almost" for weapon grinding blurbs, but what people fail to recognize is that they mistranslated it both ways there (if you're told you have no chance of success, you actually have anywhere from 0 to 4.9% chance of success ... just like 'no chance of failure' is actually 95% to 100% chance).

Just to reiterate what you said for everyone else, Neith ... (And Para, this isn't really directed at you, since--like you said--you understand all this)

Odds can really screw someone over. You'd think people would know that intimately well since we have a casino in the game now--but I'm guessing that presentation has everything to do with it. Playing Ragnarok Online, I've found that people seem to complain less about failing upgrades or item creation when the chances of success aren't explicitly stated or even hinted at--but when it is, it invites bitterness and dissapointment. People who do item creation/upgrading on iRO often have to build up their characters for the purpose (rather than building up a buddy character), and as far as I understand it they never get a visible indication on their chances of success--it's something they have to calculate and figure out for themselves. To my knowledge, Gravity hasn't even released the real formula for chance of success on item upgrading--they've only let known what stats improve the chances.

Upgrading items a little more like the weapon grinding we do here in PSU though. However, when iRO first got the Kafra Shop, which gave people a way to refine equipment at a higher success rate than normal--first day of it, I saw someone trying it out, have their equipment break, and snark about how it was a sham.

(RO has upgrade rules similar to that of ye olde PSU ... you fail an upgrade, you lose the item entirely. Of course ... RO also has a guaranteed threshold of +4 out of 10 before chances of failure come into play)

So I do have to agree ... From what I've seen, explicitly high percentages or hints of a greater chance of success can lull people in a sense of security when it's just as easy for that small chance of failure to happen repeatedly.

It's a little easier to understand if you think about rolling one of them fancy 100-sided dies AD&D gamers use. It has 100 sides. If you have some sort of effect that requires a certain number range like 1-80 to come up, that's an 80% chance. After rolling enough times, that trend will bear itself out, and 20% of the rolls you do will not fall in between 1 and 80. What you'll find though, is that there will sometimes be streaks of success or failure.

Juuust like in the Voloyal roulette. The roll history has streaks of blacks, reds, and ranges. And then there's that lucky 'ol zero that shows its head sometimes. It's going to happen; cursing "lolsegac" isn't going to make random numbers work for you. Heck, even increasing the odds as much as you can doesn't mean it's going to fall into your lap. When gambling you've got to brace for that kind of punch to the crotch, and let's face it ... synthing IS a form of gambling.

Anyway.

Para: I typically expect any synth I do with a chance of success to fail, to save me the trouble of being upset when it does. Yeah, failing synths sucks, and I ain't denying that it's a real pain in the ass, so you have my sympathies. I can understand your wanting to have those rares ready for a possible MAG extension, though I still would've waited. For one thing, we don't really know until we GET it whether or not ST will yank the GMs around again ...

[Alizarin]

Just remember, you can always leave it to ST to fuck up a 100% synth rate.

Forget ST, I'm going to blame you if my S-rank boards all fail even after that synthing boost (if/when it comes), just for jinxing it. ;x

Not caring about A-ranks since a 99% chance can fail, and they're not going to be 99% even with the boost.

[Kion]

at 85% it seems like one of them would come out synth boost or not. i went ahead and synthed a shinowa line neutral (i use armor for slots) at 95% thinking that was good enough and my pm failed it. then it proceeded to fail a dellete line, har-senga, rabol dunga and a crimson line in a row (100 armor btw). so streaks happen. more often than not generally.

[Nitro Vordex]

Recently I had an 82% and a 90% fail on me. Then the 62% after it was a sucess. o_O

[Para]

It really makes you think when a 60% succeeds and when a string of 90%s fail.