2012..Mayans.. etc.

[DreXxiN]

I've been reading and watching a lot of stuff on this since I'm bored tonight. Figured it'd be something good to shake up a conversation for, what's everyone's standpoint on this particular topic?

[Darkly]

oh man i love indigo prophecy!

[Weeaboolits]

Y2K .

[raikomaru40]

It's complete BS.

[Omega_Weltall]

i read a lot of conspiracies and of course 2012 stuff. Well one thig is that the solar system is going to align with the center of the galaxy. that is going to happen but some also state that cause of this alignment there's gonna be some "spiritual awakening", and because of this "awakening" the reptile aliens secretly controlling world governments are going to stage a fake space battle and... well just look on wikipedia or listen to Coast to Coast AM at night cause they go all in to this stuff. do i believe it personally... not realy but it's interesting. I'm expecting for absolutely nothing to happen. oh and Nibiru.

[Nitro Vordex]

We're gonna ascend to the next level.

And then someone's gonna activate a Trap Card. ._.

[rayner]

It's the end of the 12th cycle, and the Myan's ran out of paper... there is no significance with that date. If the Myans started their calander on a different day then the end date will be different as well. There is NO alignment... no spiritual awakening... no cosmic anything.

I'm an Astronomer and shit like this pisses me off... just like the alien abductions... the e-mail about how Mars will look as big as a full moon... blah, blah...

You know what WILL be AWESOME... when Betelgeuse goes Supernova... could be within our lifetime and it will be be brighter than the Full Moon for months... gamma rays will not be coming our way... it's poles are not aligned with our Solar System and it will be a spectacular sight :-)

Edit... and for the record for the Solar System to "align" it's every 20 - 25 million year period for an EXACT day to be predicted as the alignment date you would have to estimate with an accuracy of 1/8,217,900,000 = 0.000000012% I have better odds in Vegas.

[Solstis]

Wasn't the Earth supposed to be destroyed by an orbital death laser on 06/06/06?

(According to some calendars)

[Outrider]

Wasn't the Earth supposed to be destroyed by an orbital death laser on 06/06/06?

(According to some calendars)

Actually, someone reflected that one with a really big makeup mirror.

It was a real close call, it was.

[amtalx]

The world won't end, but I will gladly sell "2k12 Survival Kits" to those that think so.

[joefro]

People and their numbers. I'll be the first to say that the world will end on 1/2/3456. The world will end when the world will end, nobody knows when, especially not an ancient culture's calendar.

[Blue-Hawk]

Wow. It's refreshing to see people with the same beliefs as I have on this subject.

Actually, if we were to go by the doomsayers, the world would have ended about five times a day for the past 600 years now. Mayans were like all ancient cultures. Superstitious people that flew into a worshiping rage whenever a comet flew overhead. Always considering them a harbinger of doom.

And I have something to say to those of you bible believers (no offense to most of you) about those so-called end times.

Why is it only in the non-Judaic bibles, not counting the Bhudist faiths?


I STILL find myself laughing at all those morons that sold off all their worldly possesions and moved to Jeruselum to await the second coming that was supposed to happen on 1-1-2000. Nine years later and they still wait. :P Idiots.

[rayner]

And I have something to say to those of you bible believers (no offense to most of you) about those so-called end times.


Actually one part about the Bible will happen the one about Ending in Fire & Ice... before the Sun begins Helium Burning it will shed it's outer-layer in an epic Solar Flare and basically strip the Earth of it's Atmosphere and the Lumonisity of the Sun will decrease over time... it will be VERY cold for 10 - 20 million years... then the Sun will expand and it will heat up tremendiously and incenerate the Earth.

Fun times... we have 4.0 - 4.5 billion years...

[Split]

all I know is Mayans run our government, can dodge bullets, and know a ton of kung-fu...

[stukasa]

If you believe the Mayans could predict the end of the world then you probably also believe the number 13 is unlucky, avoid black cats and never walk under ladders. The Mayans didn't have any mystical powers, their calendar just happens to end on that date and some people got all paranoid about it. :P

[Kylie]

If 2012 is the end of the world, bring it on. If it's for real, I can't do anything about it, so why worry?

[CelestialBlade]

It's actually a pretty fascinating topic to me, but I don't like the negative undertone it's been given. If you read up on Mayan history, you find that the end of the Long Count is supposed to begin a new era where everyone becomes enlightened and we have no more wars, diseases, etc. It's actually a very beautiful concept. The Mayans never believed that there was one true "end," they believed that everything is cyclical. So if anything happens on 12/21/2012, it should be a positive experience (overall) and the dawn of a new era.

If you want to be concerned about an apocalypse, take a look at 2023 when a large asteroid is supposed to pass quite close to us. Then again, that's just the one we KNOW about. Just a few years back, a really big asteroid came close to hitting us and we didn't know about it until it was past us, so you know that NASA's NEO-monitoring program isn't really high budget. And their radars can't even detect ice comets anyway.

And as Kylie said, what's the point in worrying? The world could explode in 2012 or you could die in a car wreck tomorrow. Even if the end of the world has a due date, why not live every day to the fullest anyway?

At least the approaching 2012 date means lots of disaster flicks XD I have a thing for them.

[Sinue_v2]

I've seen a heap of trouble in my day, and most of it never came to pass. ~ Mark Twain

For the record, my money is on the technological singularity.

[rayner]

For the record, my money is on the technological singularity.

My money is on the Yellowstone Caldera... IT WILL ERRUPT, it's just a question of how soon... 2012!!! Let's make a movie :-)

[Smidge204]

There is NO alignment... no spiritual awakening... no cosmic anything.

Sarah Palin might run for POTUS in 2012.

=Smidge=

[joefro]

Sarah Palin might run for POTUS in 2012.

=Smidge=
Don't remind us. :dead:

[SStrikerR]

My money is on the Yellowstone Caldera... IT WILL ERRUPT, it's just a question of how soon... 2012!!! Let's make a movie :-)

Honestly, this is the only doomsday theory I could possibly believe, besides what's in the Bible. Anything aside from my religion, I want facts you bastards! Yellowstone's actually gonna happen, if only we knew when. EAST COAST FTW!

[Csero]

Yeah, Yellowstone Caldera is the only thing I consider remotely threatning. Glad I am on the east coast so I'll get very little ash.

[rayner]

Yeah, Yellowstone Caldera is the only thing I consider remotely threatning. Glad I am on the east coast so I'll get very little ash.

The ash will be all over the world... and continue to be present in the Atmopshere for decades... I wouldn't want to imagine the famine when that thing blows and the possible Ice Age that could follow. Humans will once again be cave-dwellers... that's how we survive these things ;-)

[amtalx]

The ash will be all over the world... and continue to be present in the Atmopshere for decades... I wouldn't want to imagine the famine when that thing blows and the possible Ice Age that could follow. Humans will once again be cave-dwellers... that's how we survive these things ;-)

Mars bitches. That's right. I said it.

[Leviathan]

NASA said something about the world becoming a little warmer. Nothing to be scared of though.

However if 2012 is an end, it could possibly mean a new beginning.

[CelestialBlade]

East coast won't save you. There's going to be enough soot and ash that it will heavily blanket the whole atmosphere and we'll end up with a volcanic winter. And given that all those clouds you'll be seeing (well, I guess you really won't, since barely any sunlight will get through) will be made of soot and ash, and that stuff's gonna rain down, so you're likely going to see it dispersed all over the planet.

Look at it this way, the west coast doesn't have to suffer before they're eradicated o_o

[DreXxiN]

I never stated I was worried, I just found it curious that not only the Mayan's but SEVERAL other cultures as I remember had this same ending date, December 21st 2012.

Just curious to me, due to the Sumerian's track record of guestimating these kind of events is REALLY good.

I DO know that it's probably not "End of Ze world", I do know that it's supposedly begins the new age of Aquarius.

[CupOfCoffee]

I hope it does end on 2012. I don't want to get old and die of cancer or have to pay off my student loans. Besides, it would pretty much rule to be able to say, "I died in the freaking APOCALYPSE!"

[SpikeOtacon]

They all want you to believe it is some silly date that determines the end of the world.

I say, the world ends with you.

[Sinue_v2]

Honestly, this is the only doomsday theory I could possibly believe, besides what's in the Bible. Anything aside from my religion, I want facts you bastards! Yellowstone's actually gonna happen, if only we knew when. EAST COAST FTW!

Juan Enriquez: Economic Bust, Evolutionary Boost (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JNcLKbJs3xk&feature=channel_page)

Barry Schuler: Introduction to Genomics (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_xJXZBCOWMY&feature=channel_page)

Hod Lipson: Robots that are self-aware (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lMkHYE9-R0A&feature=channel_page)

New Scientist: Cyborg Insects (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSCLBG9KeX4&feature=channel_page)

New Scientist: Robot moves using Rat Brain/Chip hybrid (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1-0eZytv6Qk&feature=channel_page)

New Scientist: Evolutionary Algorithms surpass human designers? (http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19526146.000-evolutionary-algorithms-now-surpass-human-designers.html)

Paul Rothemund: Folding DNA Origami (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WhGG__boRxU&feature=channel_page)

Ray Kurzweil: Acceleration of Technology (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IfbOyw3CT6A&feature=channel_page)

Ray Kurzweil: Singularity Summit 1/3 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PWXrnsSrf0&feature=channel_page)

Berkley Bionics: Human Exoskeleton (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EdK2y3lphmE&feature=channel_page)

Kevin Warwick: The First Cyborg (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RB_l7SY_ngI&feature=related)

Wired: Darpa's Project "SyNAPSE" (http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/02/darpa-2009-brai.html)

BCIs: Monkey Controls Robot Arm using only it's Mind (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iys5wvQD72Y&feature=related)

Stanford University: BCIs (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7lmJe_EXEU)

Stanford University: Building Block Diagrams of the Brain (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4kRrarRR2kk&feature=SeriesPlayList&p=32BC95C9D7E5959C&index=0)


Fortunately, the Yellowstone volcanic system shows no signs that it is headed toward such an eruption in the near future. In fact, the probability of any such event occurring at Yellowstone within the next few thousand years is exceedingly low. ~ USGS

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2005/3024/

Yellowstone likely won't blow for a few thousand years. If the Singularity CAN happen, it WILL happen withing the next 200 years. Many predict it between 2050~2100.

There are many in the formative fields of Genomics, Nanotechnology, and Robotics who feel these three technologies will converge shortly in the future to profoundly change the human experience. Some see it as stepping beyond just a purely human affecting phenomena - but that we will bring about the next great paradigm shift in evolution. The creation of a synthetic biosphere via technology and evolutionary algorithms, as well as the modification of currently existing species and/or creation of entirely new and fabricated organisms. Including ourselves.

Evolution has gotten a few kick starts. From RNA to DNA, From single celled to multicellular, from Asexual to sexual reproduction. Each step in the process creating greater means of increasing diversity. Now, we can truly harness the potential of intelligence... simulation of the future. By running increasingly powerful EA's - an organism can simulate thousands of generational changes to find the best adapted forms, and then change their bodies specifically to adapt. Rather than the trial and error of Mutation & Selection through natural means - taking several generations, organisms can effect these changes in a single generation. Multiple times per generation.

Mankind, if we proceed along this path (and NOTHING seems capable of abating it), WILL eventually merge with our technology. It will be a profound shift for ALL life - and most of the current biosphere, I doubt, will survive. Those animals that will survive will be those who have shown aptitude already for living in human environments. Rats, Dogs, Cattle, Crows, etc. Animals that either have learned to parasite from us (scavengers), express traits that are useful to us (livestock), or form symbiotic relationships to us (pets). However, we are potentially looking at a new Cambrian explosion. This one not taking millions upon millions of years - but generations.

Humanity, may not survive, or at least will not survive unchanged. Those few who reject technological/biological augmentation will dwindle in numbers, until they are either a minority (like the Amish) - or they have succumbed to their mortality. The youth who grow up entrenched in this new world will likely not have the bias many of us may have. So it will only be a matter of time before the old generations pass, and the youth carry on with the cyberization/biomodification. So humanity as a species, as we know it, will cease to exist at some point relatively shortly.

Of course, this is just speculation. The scenario may not play out like I have laid out - but it is coming. And it's coming a hell of a lot sooner than a Yellowstone Eruption.

[Rubius-sama]

It's the end of the 12th cycle, and the Myan's ran out of paper... there is no significance with that date. If the Myans started their calander on a different day then the end date will be different as well. There is NO alignment... no spiritual awakening... no cosmic anything.


Actually you're wrong, they didn't run out of "paper." Although the Mayan calendar stops at 2012, it resumes a few thousand years later. This tells us a few things:

a) There is a meaning to the blank area in the Mayan calendar, be it big or small, significant or insignificant - that is up to debate.
b) It does not mean the world will end, since the calendar resumes after 2012, and further events take place.

Personally I believe there may be something to it. These ancient cultures were masters of the dark arts, just like we are masters of science and technology. I believe in the One God, and his word that the movement of every atom in existence is prescribed in a preserved tablet. The universe, and the destiny of all life, can be thought of as a computer program. It's possible to see into the future, into the "script" of the universe, but not by humans. We're not the only intelligent creatures living on Earth. Ghosts/Djinn/Ifrit (or whatever you want to call them) live among us. All forbidden knowledge, such as black magic and future events, have been passed onto humans by them.

This is just what I've personally come to believe, but I respect other's views.. and that I could be dreadfully wrong. It may be that nothing will happen in 2012, and the significance is symbolic at best.

[rayner]

Juan Enriquez: Economic Bust, Evolutionary Boost (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JNcLKbJs3xk&feature=channel_page)

Barry Schuler: Introduction to Genomics (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_xJXZBCOWMY&feature=channel_page)

Hod Lipson: Robots that are self-aware (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lMkHYE9-R0A&feature=channel_page)

New Scientist: Cyborg Insects (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSCLBG9KeX4&feature=channel_page)

New Scientist: Robot moves using Rat Brain/Chip hybrid (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1-0eZytv6Qk&feature=channel_page)

New Scientist: Evolutionary Algorithms surpass human designers? (http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg19526146.000-evolutionary-algorithms-now-surpass-human-designers.html)

Paul Rothemund: Folding DNA Origami (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WhGG__boRxU&feature=channel_page)

Ray Kurzweil: Acceleration of Technology (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IfbOyw3CT6A&feature=channel_page)

Ray Kurzweil: Singularity Summit 1/3 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PWXrnsSrf0&feature=channel_page)

Berkley Bionics: Human Exoskeleton (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EdK2y3lphmE&feature=channel_page)

Kevin Warwick: The First Cyborg (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RB_l7SY_ngI&feature=related)

Wired: Darpa's Project "SyNAPSE" (http://blog.wired.com/defense/2008/02/darpa-2009-brai.html)

BCIs: Monkey Controls Robot Arm using only it's Mind (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iys5wvQD72Y&feature=related)

Stanford University: BCIs (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7lmJe_EXEU)

Stanford University: Building Block Diagrams of the Brain (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4kRrarRR2kk&feature=SeriesPlayList&p=32BC95C9D7E5959C&index=0)



http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2005/3024/

Yellowstone likely won't blow for a few thousand years. If the Singularity CAN happen, it WILL happen withing the next 200 years. Many predict it between 2050~2100.

There are many in the formative fields of Genomics, Nanotechnology, and Robotics who feel these three technologies will converge shortly in the future to profoundly change the human experience. Some see it as stepping beyond just a purely human affecting phenomena - but that we will bring about the next great paradigm shift in evolution. The creation of a synthetic biosphere via technology and evolutionary algorithms, as well as the modification of currently existing species and/or creation of entirely new and fabricated organisms. Including ourselves.

Evolution has gotten a few kick starts. From RNA to DNA, From single celled to multicellular, from Asexual to sexual reproduction. Each step in the process creating greater means of increasing diversity. Now, we can truly harness the potential of intelligence... simulation of the future. By running increasingly powerful EA's - an organism can simulate thousands of generational changes to find the best adapted forms, and then change their bodies specifically to adapt. Rather than the trial and error of Mutation & Selection through natural means - taking several generations, organisms can effect these changes in a single generation. Multiple times per generation.

Mankind, if we proceed along this path (and NOTHING seems capable of abating it), WILL eventually merge with our technology. It will be a profound shift for ALL life - and most of the current biosphere, I doubt, will survive. Those animals that will survive will be those who have shown aptitude already for living in human environments. Rats, Dogs, Cattle, Crows, etc. Animals that either have learned to parasite from us (scavengers), express traits that are useful to us (livestock), or form symbiotic relationships to us (pets). However, we are potentially looking at a new Cambrian explosion. This one not taking millions upon millions of years - but generations.

Humanity, may not survive, or at least will not survive unchanged. Those few who reject technological/biological augmentation will dwindle in numbers, until they are either a minority (like the Amish) - or they have succumbed to their mortality. The youth who grow up entrenched in this new world will likely not have the bias many of us may have. So it will only be a matter of time before the old generations pass, and the youth carry on with the cyberization/biomodification. So humanity as a species, as we know it, will cease to exist at some point relatively shortly.

Of course, this is just speculation. The scenario may not play out like I have laid out - but it is coming. And it's coming a hell of a lot sooner than a Yellowstone Eruption.

That article is dated 2005... in the last 3 years the Caldera has risen 3X it's normal rate... since they recorded it since 1924. I'll tell you why I don't believe in the singularity... "we are still here" there are extra-terrestrials in the Universe and I'm sure there is a civilization 100,000,000X more advanced than humans with technology we can only dream of... and yet we are still here. There are 2 scenarios that can explain this.... First is the Singularity feels sympathy and develops emotions... and leaves Humans alone. Or it never happens... and I'll tell you what's wrong with this statement... if any "being" can create an entity with Free Will they will be known as Gods.

... I'll take the second scenario, it can never happen.

[Seira7]

Eh, I figure I'll know when it gets here. I used to be all into terrence mckenna blah-blah-blahbittyblah and John Lillys favorite fan but eventually "stuff" wears off. Dec 12 2012 will probably end up being just another boring day, with me stuck at the mall rushing around getting presents freaking out about the holiday once again.

[Omega_Weltall]

The Black Gods from the Planet Nibiru are coming back to take back the planet from you white devils and put the Black man back in charge! No seriously, people actually believe this. Although... as a black guy i kinda hope it does :D KIDDING KIDDING!

[Smidge204]

there are extra-terrestrials in the Universe and I'm sure there is a civilization 100,000,000X more advanced than humans with technology we can only dream of...

[Citation Needed]

It is not to say I'm pompous enough to believe humans are singularly unique in the entire known universe, but the (in)famous Drake Equation (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation) has all those terms in it for a reason. It's just as valid to say we are the most technologically advanced life forms in the universe as it is to say we are not... perhaps moreso, since we can actually prove we ourselves exist.
=Smidge=

[Sinue_v2]

That article is dated 2005... in the last 3 years the Caldera has risen 3X it's normal rate... since they recorded it since 1924.

And? What other significant signs of eminent vulcanism elude to an impending eruption in the near future? What is their current eruption forecast? Actually, not much more than it was in 2005.


Jake Lowenstern, Ph.D., YVO's chief scientist, who also is part of the USGS Volcano Hazards Team, told TIME that a supervolcano event does not appear to be imminent. "We don't think the amount of magma exists that would create one of these large eruptions of the past," he said. "It is still possible to have a volcanic eruption comparable to other volcanoes. But we would expect to see more and larger quakes, deformation and precursory explosions out of the lake. We don't believe that anything strange is happening right now." Time Magazine - 01/01/09

Source Article (http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1869313,00.html)



I'll tell you why I don't believe in the singularity... "we are still here" there are extra-terrestrials in the Universe and I'm sure there is a civilization 100,000,000X more advanced than humans with technology we can only dream of... and yet we are still here.

Thank you, Morpheus, for pointing that out. (That was the reference you were going for, right?) However, the entire point of calling such an event a singularity - is that prediction beyond that point breaks down in our conventional models or trend predictions. There could be a million and one different reasons for why we haven't been overtaken by alien robot hordes. Mainly, because that's just a straw-man I invented to dramatize your post.

Perhaps we (and our technology) will not survive a singularity scenario, meaning Michio Kaku was right that the transition from a Type 0 to Type 1 civilization is extremely arduous? As the old saying goes, we are entering a time when anybody will have the knowledge and means to kill everybody.

Perhaps such advanced civilizations can send out probes - or visitors - that deliberately avoid solar systems that have the potential for life, like some cosmic Prime Directive? What do you think we'd do? Of course, we're not aliens or subject to their dispositions. However, I'm of the mind to think that any sufficiently advanced civilization will only become such a civilization because of evolutionary behaviors that may well resemble our own. At some point in their evolutionary history, they would have been as we once were. Semi-intelligent proto-forms that relied heavily on group structure dynamics to ensure the safety of the troupe. They likely would have struggled with these behavioral vestiges as well. If they were highly intelligent, but solitary creatures, I doubt they would have formed a workable society which is needed for the free exchange of ideas and knowledge necessary to the academic process. If they were territorial predators... well, no biggie. So are we. If they were strictly herbivores, it may be likely they'd have a special appreciation and empathy for fellow "prey" species.

Perhaps they merely sent out probes to propagate and diversify through the universe - recording data as they went. The information, when it gets back to their territory, they experience through simulation in virtual reality as if actually there. Perhaps they have no physical bodies at all anymore, having fled to the virtual world where disease, hunger, and want are no more. They merely exist as constructs within a network.

There's a lot of sci-fi speculation which could be done, but in the end, it's all pretty much pointless considering that we don't even know if intelligent life exists out there. It's pretty damned likely... but... it's still not substantiated. Given enough distance (of which there is PLENTY OF in the universe, their existence in a post-singularity state does not mean they would have contact with us or that we would have evidence of them. Further, there is nothing to state that we are not the first intelligent life to reach this state - or have survived long enough to reach this state.

I can't speak for aliens, but in hominids, intelligence has NOT thus far proven to be that successful of an adaptation. Merely look around for our closest living relative... the Bonobo. Where is Neanderthal? Where is Australopithecus? Where is Homo Floresiensis? Where is Homo Sapien Idaltu?

Gone.


There are 2 scenarios that can explain this.... First is the Singularity feels sympathy and develops emotions... and leaves Humans alone.

You MAY be confusing the Singularity with the Omega Point. I don't quite buy the Omega Point. When I mention the Singularity, I merely refer to the next stage in directed evolution through intelligence, the augmentation of human intelligence by technology, and the creation of smarter than human AI. I don't see the Singularity as a "being" or singular consciousness that's supposed to arise from technology and biology. However, I think that the potential merger of consciousness in a virtual construct where there are no physical boundaries by which to define individuality is a potential danger we should weight heavily when the time comes.

I would have though looking to religion would have offered some insight into this for me over the years - since the concept of a soul as being untethered consciousness flitting between other untethered consciousnesses in the non-physical hereafter would pose a similar paradox or struck some of the same chords. Yet... I've thus far found no answers, and most religious folks that I've talked admit to never having given it much thought.

Perhaps someone here could illuminate.


if any "being" can create an entity with Free Will they will be known as Gods.

Technically, we already have. In the first video, Juan Enriquez explains how we've already created "Organic Parts Lists" and found that by writing our own genetic codes and putting them in a cell, we can "boot" that cell as anything we want. We're already creating life in this fashion, as further explained in the video, and aside from genetic predispositions - we cannot control their actions. Granted, they're not intelligent... but how long until we do? How long until we can create our own optimized neurons and put them on chips (also in the videos above) on a grander scale - and DO create intelligence?

Personally, I don't think we'll really create an intelligent conscious being - because we don't even know what exactly consciousness is yet. We can barely even define it. I think what's true, however, is that consciousness is an emergent property. I somehow doubt we'll even know when we create it, or even recognize it for what it is initially.

Also, creating an entity with Free Will would not make us gods. We more resemble god when we write a book, tell a story, or program a simulation - for then, I feel, we truly create worlds in which we are exist outside of, yet are in complete control of.


... I'll take the second scenario, it can never happen.

You're certainly welcome to it, but I disagree.

[rayner]

[Citation Needed]

It is not to say I'm pompous enough to believe humans are singularly unique in the entire known universe, but the (in)famous Drake Equation (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation) has all those terms in it for a reason. It's just as valid to say we are the most technologically advanced life forms in the universe as it is to say we are not... perhaps moreso, since we can actually prove we ourselves exist.
=Smidge=

The Drake equation is not really looked at as a useful tool in the Search for Life in the Universe anymore because of confirmed information on Extrasolar planets, which is why the exhibit was removed from the Smithsonian. To believe that humans are the most advanced civilization in the Universe is a bit cocky... can't argue your point though ;-)

[rayner]

And? What other significant signs of eminent vulcanism elude to an impending eruption in the near future? What is their current eruption forecast? Actually, not much more than it was in 2005.



Source Article (http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1869313,00.html)




Thank you, Morpheus, for pointing that out. (That was the reference you were going for, right?) However, the entire point of calling such an event a singularity - is that prediction beyond that point breaks down in our conventional models or trend predictions. There could be a million and one different reasons for why we haven't been overtaken by alien robot hordes. Mainly, because that's just a straw-man I invented to dramatize your post.

Perhaps we (and our technology) will not survive a singularity scenario, meaning Michio Kaku was right that the transition from a Type 0 to Type 1 civilization is extremely arduous? As the old saying goes, we are entering a time when anybody will have the knowledge and means to kill everybody.

Perhaps such advanced civilizations can send out probes - or visitors - that deliberately avoid solar systems that have the potential for life, like some cosmic Prime Directive? What do you think we'd do? Of course, we're not aliens or subject to their dispositions. However, I'm of the mind to think that any sufficiently advanced civilization will only become such a civilization because of evolutionary behaviors that may well resemble our own. At some point in their evolutionary history, they would have been as we once were. Semi-intelligent proto-forms that relied heavily on group structure dynamics to ensure the safety of the troupe. They likely would have struggled with these behavioral vestiges as well. If they were highly intelligent, but solitary creatures, I doubt they would have formed a workable society which is needed for the free exchange of ideas and knowledge necessary to the academic process. If they were territorial predators... well, no biggie. So are we. If they were strictly herbivores, it may be likely they'd have a special appreciation and empathy for fellow "prey" species.

Perhaps they merely sent out probes to propagate and diversify through the universe - recording data as they went. The information, when it gets back to their territory, they experience through simulation in virtual reality as if actually there. Perhaps they have no physical bodies at all anymore, having fled to the virtual world where disease, hunger, and want are no more. They merely exist as constructs within a network.

There's a lot of sci-fi speculation which could be done, but in the end, it's all pretty much pointless considering that we don't even know if intelligent life exists out there. It's pretty damned likely... but... it's still not substantiated. Given enough distance (of which there is PLENTY OF in the universe, their existence in a post-singularity state does not mean they would have contact with us or that we would have evidence of them. Further, there is nothing to state that we are not the first intelligent life to reach this state - or have survived long enough to reach this state.

I can't speak for aliens, but in hominids, intelligence has NOT thus far proven to be that successful of an adaptation. Merely look around for our closest living relative... the Bonobo. Where is Neanderthal? Where is Australopithecus? Where is Homo Floresiensis? Where is Homo Sapien Idaltu?

Gone.



You MAY be confusing the Singularity with the Omega Point. I don't quite buy the Omega Point. When I mention the Singularity, I merely refer to the next stage in directed evolution through intelligence, the augmentation of human intelligence by technology, and the creation of smarter than human AI. I don't see the Singularity as a "being" or singular consciousness that's supposed to arise from technology and biology. However, I think that the potential merger of consciousness in a virtual construct where there are no physical boundaries by which to define individuality is a potential danger we should weight heavily when the time comes.

I would have though looking to religion would have offered some insight into this for me over the years - since the concept of a soul as being untethered consciousness flitting between other untethered consciousnesses in the non-physical hereafter would pose a similar paradox or struck some of the same chords. Yet... I've thus far found no answers, and most religious folks that I've talked admit to never having given it much thought.

Perhaps someone here could illuminate.



Technically, we already have. In the first video, Juan Enriquez explains how we've already created "Organic Parts Lists" and found that by writing our own genetic codes and putting them in a cell, we can "boot" that cell as anything we want. We're already creating life in this fashion, as further explained in the video, and aside from genetic predispositions - we cannot control their actions. Granted, they're not intelligent... but how long until we do? How long until we can create our own optimized neurons and put them on chips (also in the videos above) on a grander scale - and DO create intelligence?

Personally, I don't think we'll really create an intelligent conscious being - because we don't even know what exactly consciousness is yet. We can barely even define it. I think what's true, however, is that consciousness is an emergent property. I somehow doubt we'll even know when we create it, or even recognize it for what it is initially.

Also, creating an entity with Free Will would not make us gods. We more resemble god when we write a book, tell a story, or program a simulation - for then, I feel, we truly create worlds in which we are exist outside of, yet are in complete control of.



You're certainly welcome to it, but I disagree.

I'm going to sum up this long and winded response... the Singularity will have Omnipotence, I'm sure you know what that means. We are still here... why? Because it doesn't exist and never will.

Oh and on Yellowstone, I'm not saying it's going to blow "right now" but it will and definitely occur before something that will never happen.

[Sinue_v2]

the Singularity will have Omnipotence, I'm sure you know what that means. We are still here... why?

Why do we still exist in a world ruled, according to so many people, by god; a supposedly Omnipotent and Omniscient being? Personally I find the concepts to be more or less logical fallacies. They create, by far, more logical problems than they solve.

(Personally, I'm of the belief that god is neither Omnipotent or Omniscient as well)


Oh and on Yellowstone, I'm not saying it's going to blow "right now" but it will and definitely occur before something that will never happen.

Considering the rate at which technology has advanced in just the last 50 years since the advent of computers, as well as the potential ground breaking applications of these emerging technologies - I find it far more likely that in the next century, we will have to seriously consider the question, "What does it mean to be "Human", rather than face a "Doomsday" Yellowstone eruption.

[rayner]

Why do we still exist in a world ruled, according to so many people, by god; a supposedly Omnipotent and Omniscient being? Personally I find the concepts to be more or less logical fallacies. They create, by far, more logical problems than they solve.

(Personally, I'm of the belief that god is neither Omnipotent or Omniscient as well)



Considering the rate at which technology has advanced in just the last 50 years since the advent of computers, as well as the potential ground breaking applications of these emerging technologies - I find it far more likely that in the next century, we will have to seriously consider the question, "What does it mean to be "Human", rather than face a "Doomsday" Yellowstone eruption.

So which came first the chicken or the egg? I don't think you fully understand the concept of the Singularity... you can quote sources and other people until you're blue in the face. If the Singularity happens the question "what does it mean to be human" won't be an option... I think you are confusing this with something like the Borg... or Grey Goo.

[Zarode]

Wasn't the Earth supposed to be destroyed by an orbital death laser on 06/06/06?

(According to some calendars)

Also, special clocks for the occasion to reach the destined time of 6:66.


I believe these theories like I believe the guy with a bible in his hand on the corner of the street.

[CelestialBlade]

You also have to consider the accuracy range of Yellowstone's eruption year. Viscous magma doesn't exactly operate on a timeclock, so you have to realize that if a particular date is set for an eruption, your uncertainty is plus or minus maybe 10,000 years. It could happen many generations from now, or it could happen tomorrow, who knows. It's simply too unpredictable.

Though at the same time, it does make me happy when entropy knocks us humans on our asses when we think we're so smart.

[Sinue_v2]

So which came first the chicken or the egg? I don't think you fully understand the concept of the Singularity... you can quote sources and other people until you're blue in the face. If the Singularity happens the question "what does it mean to be human" won't be an option... I think you are confusing this with something like the Borg... or Grey Goo.

Ah, on the contrary. I'm getting the distinct impression that you seem to be the one who is laboring under a false impression on what constitutes the singularity. Certainly many have taken the concept and built upon it in their own particular way - but the two originators (though not collaborators) spelled out a very different scenario and definition.

Quote sources, I will.

I. J. Good: Speculations concerning the first ultra-intelligent machine (http://www.stat.vt.edu/tech_reports/2005/GoodTechReport.pdf)

Vernor Vinge: The Singularity (http://mindstalk.net/vinge/vinge-sing.html)

These are the two people who pretty much formulated the basis for the concept and identification of the Singularity. Not once, in either paper, do these men suggest anything close to omnipotence or omnipresence. So where does this idea come from, and whom are you to suggest that you know of their own theory than they? This isn't as such, like Darwin's theory, proceeding him and growing well beyond it's original framework. The Singularity isn't even a science. It's a speculation based upon trends.

If you think, in previous posts, I was referencing the Borg Hive Mind or "Grey Goo" - then you are well and quite off the mark. I would suggest re-reading them. Further, if you wish to discuss this possible "end" to humanity - providing some basic definitions of what YOU think the Singularity will be - because apparently it's not jiving with what the theory actually IS.

[CelestialBlade]

Just to clear things up and back up the message Sinue is trying to get across here, the Borg scenario is where we eventually upload our entire brains into computers, and thus the internet, and someone finds a way to literally take control of everyone else's brains, in a giant "assimilation." This is similar to the Technological Singularity, but not exactly.

The "Gray Goo" scenario is much simpler; we create nanobots that can self-replicate and they just end up turning every molecule on the planet into copies of itself, rendering all matter a "gray goo" of tiny nanobots.

The Singularity, best I understand it, is caused by the rapid acceleration of technological development to the point where we lose all individuality and we truly become one conciousness, free of physical form and able to think at infinite speed. If you think about it, we're already halfway there--is the internet not one large conciousness? We maintain our individuality because we all have our own computers and such, but that will change. We will become a "god" of sorts, if you want to call it that. Pretty fascinating scenario.

[NPCMook]

By year 2011 the Awakening shall happen magic will begin to return to the world and all forms of government will begin to crumble. People will begin giving birth to Elves and Dwarves and others will begin a long and painful process of goblinzation becoming Orcs and Trolls, many will not survive, I predict roughly 40% of the World population will die. Around 2012 the great dragons will arise from their slumber to lead through this tough time.

[AC9breaker]

Weak, I walked in this thread expecting to hear discussion about the new movie 2012. I am severely dissapointed.

[Nai_Calus]

NPCMook has it right.

[rayner]

Ah, on the contrary. I'm getting the distinct impression that you seem to be the one who is laboring under a false impression on what constitutes the singularity. Certainly many have taken the concept and built upon it in their own particular way - but the two originators (though not collaborators) spelled out a very different scenario and definition.

Quote sources, I will.

I. J. Good: Speculations concerning the first ultra-intelligent machine (http://www.stat.vt.edu/tech_reports/2005/GoodTechReport.pdf)

Vernor Vinge: The Singularity (http://mindstalk.net/vinge/vinge-sing.html)

These are the two people who pretty much formulated the basis for the concept and identification of the Singularity. Not once, in either paper, do these men suggest anything close to omnipotence or omnipresence. So where does this idea come from, and whom are you to suggest that you know of their own theory than they? This isn't as such, like Darwin's theory, proceeding him and growing well beyond it's original framework. The Singularity isn't even a science. It's a speculation based upon trends.

If you think, in previous posts, I was referencing the Borg Hive Mind or "Grey Goo" - then you are well and quite off the mark. I would suggest re-reading them. Further, if you wish to discuss this possible "end" to humanity - providing some basic definitions of what YOU think the Singularity will be - because apparently it's not jiving with what the theory actually IS.

This is like arguing with one of my students who looks up all the answers on google, it's quite entertaining, not a single ounce of independent thought. Besides you never answered my question... Is it the Chicken? The Egg? Are you going to google the question? Try Ask.com... maybe god.com has the answer?

[Smidge204]

If you subscribe to the literal interpretation of Biblical Genesis, then the chicken came first.

If, however, you actually look at the mountains of paleontological evidence available, it's pretty clear that the egg came first. Creatures were laying eggs long before what we refer to as "chickens" evolved.

Ergo, the egg came first. Any attempts to argue that point will necessarily rely on the incorrect assumption that there was a discreet moment at which "chicken" make into existence.

You made reference to "my students" - I'm wondering; what subject and level do you teach?
=Smidge=

[rayner]

If you subscribe to the literal interpretation of Biblical Genesis, then the chicken came first.

If, however, you actually look at the mountains of paleontological evidence available, it's pretty clear that the egg came first. Creatures were laying eggs long before what we refer to as "chickens" evolved.

Ergo, the egg came first. Any attempts to argue that point will necessarily rely on the incorrect assumption that there was a discreet moment at which "chicken" make into existence.

You made reference to "my students" - I'm wondering; what subject and level do you teach?
=Smidge=

That's the point of the analogy, it has different interrpertations... a religious person would say it was the chicken, and the scientific individual would point out evolution, but even in that sense something laid that "egg" maybe not a chicken... but something. How did IT get there?

The great scientific minds of the Modern era were believers in a God, if you were to personify this entity in any physical sense ( machines ) you can form Paradoxes... such as the one I put forth. I can think of many more... could the Singularity form a mass so large that even it can't lift it? It doesn't have an answer...

I teach Physics.

[Sinue_v2]

Just to clear things up and back up the message Sinue is trying to get across here

I appreciate the gesture, however the scenario you put forward is not quite what I had in mind. The singularity, as defined by Vinge when he coined the term, is the point at which computers can truly and without a shadow of a doubt pass the Turing Test. When they can match human intelligence. An caveat to this is that the AI must be able to create an AI more intelligent than itself in a way that is truly beyond human scope. I, personally, say it's a caveat - rather than a staple, because we already have the basic framework for a computer to accomplish this task with, and we're currently using it to help build robots. Evolution, via Genetic Algorithms.

As for the humans, we are merely precursors and what happens to us isn't a part of defining the criteria for the Singularity. However, if we wish to survive in a post-singularity world - we would likely have to find a way to keep up with our technology accelerated pace. This will likely come through cyberization - and is already well underway.

The question of merging consciousness is merely something I feel we will have to keep in mind going into the future - even a more distant non-singularity future. You're right in that we're already starting to see the first tentative steps towards this on the internet right now. A "Hive Mind" is quite possible, but not with a set collective goal as present in the Borg - nor will it be lead by any one individual. Rather, I believe that if possible, the merger and diversion of consciousness will (to put it in visual terms) resemble birds in flight or schools of fish. The whole will still consist of individuals making individual decisions - but group actions are not decided by any singular individual, nor by the whole. However the actions of individual can effect a profound change in the behavior of the whole, just as the actions of the whole have influence on the actions of the individual.

So what you'd end up seeing, I think, is rather than one singular consciousness forming across all of humanity - you'd see multitudes of differing collective consciousnesses accrueing and interacting. Some further merging, some diverging, some being massive, while others niche. To the individual, I wonder if it will even be noticeable - and at what point would too long an affiliation with any singular consciousness irrevocably destroy an individual's original identity?

To a degree, I don't necessarily see the merging of consciousness as an inherently bad thing. Other consciousnesses already rub off on us in the form of ideas and artistry, etc. We learn, and we grow from interaction with other consciousnesses. You are surely not the same person you were 10 years ago, as he (or she) is long dead. The person who has taken his (her) place is both as much new information and new ideas merged from other consciousnesses as you are views and ideas which are yours but have been refined over the years. The you, who you are now, will die - is constantly dying every time you learn something new or hear another's point of view, only to be replaced by the new you.

I can see the merger of consciousness as a potential force for growth, and one which we may welcome eventually after being initially unwary or frightened of it.


We will become a "god" of sorts, if you want to call it that.

Again, I REALLY don't like that coin of phrase - and even some in the Posthuman/Transhuman movement are looking forward to eventually "becoming gods". I think this is a fallacy, and it is for some reason deeply unsettling to me to see others look forward to such a concept. Perhaps it is my old religious background which rings out in my head "Pride Cometh before the Fall". I believe that phrase is true. At it's core, the desire to be a "god" (I feel) is one of unchallengeable empowerment... which can be a very dangerous line to tread. I look forward to these technologies, not for what they can make me, but for what they can do for humanity as a whole if managed properly.

I am well aware how pessimistic I've come across on this forum in the past, especially in regards to PSU. The reality is, I'm an optimist who leans more towards Utopia, than Distopia, when looking towards the future. Or perhaps, I really am a pessimist who ardently admires the optimist.

I've also been drinking. Forgive me if I've gone off tangent and obfuscated the point further.


This is like arguing with one of my students who looks up all the answers on google, it's quite entertaining, not a single ounce of independent thought.

My apologies. I did not realize that I was to be writing my mid-term thesis here. Further, as a teacher (apparently), you should be aware that Ad Homenim does not a valid argument make.

Ah well, tit-for-tat. To be completely honest, I've thought you've been arguing rather similarly to Creationist methodology thus far, but I've been too polite to mention so up to this point. I understand you're just trolling, but I don't often get the chance to talk about this sort of stuff. So I'm soaking it up a bit.

Now that that's out of the way, lets leave the character assassination by the wayside. We're already technically off-topic.


Besides you never answered my question... Is it the Chicken? The Egg?

I did not answer the questions, because I failed to see the relevance of such a question to the point I was trying to make. Perhaps I am mistaken and it is relevant. It would be helpful if you would provide a basic framework for the question. To what are you regarding, and what do you feel the chicken and the egg metaphorically refer to?


Are you going to google the question? Try Ask.com... maybe god.com has the answer?

Sarcasm is the insincerest form of flattery.

[Sinue_v2]

That's the point of the analogy, it has different interrpertations... a religious person would say it was the chicken, and the scientific individual would point out evolution, but even in that sense something laid that "egg" maybe not a chicken... but something. How did IT get there?.

I would actually answer that we don't know. Chicken and the Egg is basically a causality based line of reasoning. At it's ultimate end, we are at the extreme first moments of the big bang. So what caused the Big Bang? We don't yet know.


The great scientific minds of the Modern era were believers in a God, if you were to personify this entity in any physical sense ( machines ) you can form Paradoxes... such as the one I put forth.

The one you posited, I think, is faulty - because it leads me (at least) to the same answer. We don't know. Is there a god? We don't know.

I personally DO believe in god, but it is most closely related to the Deistic philosophies. Still, this side-derailment into a religious angel reinforces my belief that you're still somehow rooted in the concept of an Omega Point.

There's actually nothing to say that the Technological Singularity (should it occur) will forever be continually accelerating technological discovery. It very well could level out or slow down substantially. Further, the actual resource management necessary to put technological knowledge to practical use may slow adoption of technology in many fields. After all, the Agricultural and Industrial Revolutions are sometimes considered singularities in their own - yet their progress has been limited.

Again, it reinforces my point that a Singularity, at least in terms futurists use, is merely a point at which current models of prediction break down. How could our hunter-gatherer forefathers contemplate the long term effects of their development of agriculture on humanity? How could our forefathers at the start of the Industrial Revolution predict how it would affect humanity in the future?

As you say you're a physics teacher, I must ask, are you sure you're not unknowingly using your understanding of gravitational singularities as a basis for your understanding of the Technological Singularity? If such is the case, I would argue that they are merely two similar words with different meanings. Much like "Theory" has different definitions in relation to mathematics, scientific nomenclature, and colloquial use.

[Smidge204]

The great scientific minds of the Modern era were believers in a God, if you were to personify this entity in any physical sense ( machines ) you can form Paradoxes... such as the one I put forth. I can think of many more... could the Singularity form a mass so large that even it can't lift it? It doesn't have an answer...


It doesn't have an answer because ti doesn't make any sense. You're personifying a theoretical scientific phenomena. I really don't quite understand how God comes into the equation at all... you might as well be asking if an emotion could create something so heavy it can't lift it. "The Singularity" is not an entity. Reading back on your older posts again, I think it's pretty fair to say you are the one who misunderstands the concept of a technological singularity. Omnipotence? Really? How's that supposed to work?

As with the egg paradox - it's not a paradox at all. That was my point. It is not open for interpretation unless you are willfully ignorant of the facts. It is rather unscientific to deliberately alter the perceptions to create a paradox.

=Smidge=
P.S. Physics was my best subject :E

[rayner]

As you say you're a physics teacher, I must ask, are you sure you're not unknowingly using your understanding of gravitational singularities as a basis for your understanding of the Technological Singularity? If such is the case, I would argue that they are merely two similar words with different meanings. Much like "Theory" has different definitions in relation to mathematics, scientific nomenclature, and colloquial use.

A gravitational singularity, i.e Black Hole, perhaps the electron... is a bit different. My interrpertation of a Technological Singularity I guess in it's basic form an AI that transends human comprehension and BECOMES the Universe. That would create a paradox, Humans are the creators of the Universe? Or any sentient beings in the Universe are also it's creators? I do not think the AI would stop at "human intelligence" and from even an understanding of General Physics these machines would BE in all matter. The only thing that's holding back a Technological Singularity is Causality. That's my impression...

I'm not saying you or your sources are wrong, this is just my interrpertation :-)

[Sinue_v2]

I'm not saying you or your sources are wrong, this is just my interrpertation

And you know, to my chagrin, from my point of argument there's nothing intrinsically wrong with this statement you've just made. because futurism isn't a well defined science. It isn't science at all. It's little more than mere speculation on the future based on the directions of new and established technologies and trends. So, much as how people can debate different views and interpretations of philosophy, so too can even the basic fundamentals of futurism. Everyone can interpret the trends in their own ways, and come to their own conclusions or theories.

I tend to take a reductionist view and focus not so much on trying to "rationalize" the supposed sequence of what's possible, but rather focus on what's probable. As such, my definition of the Singularity and the criteria which triggers it lies closely in the framework in which it was originally termed. Even less so, because as said before, not only does it seem increasingly less likely that AI will use sheer turbo-charged knowledge, inspiration, and serendipity to improve itself... but even we are stepping away from the wheel of design more and more to let a more competent designer take over. Evolution. I find it more likely that advanced AI's would use more powerful forms of EA's than the direct design route.


My interrpertation of a Technological Singularity I guess in it's basic form an AI that transends human comprehension and BECOMES the Universe.

Herein lies the crux of our disagreement I think. I don't see merely surpassing human intelligence is sufficient for "becoming" the Universe in any real sense. One of the popular ideas surrounding the Singularity is the slow/rapid conversion of all available matter in the universe into more and more powerful computing machines (Your "Grey Goo" reference?) until eventually the universe is one colossal super computer. I don't subscribe to that scenario. It's too fantastic, and the leap of faith logic needed to get there is tantamount to pure fiction. The very concept of the Singularity is that our technology advances so rapidly that we cannot make reasonable speculations on what comes after... so why do people insist on telling us what happens next?

The entire scenario reeks of Omega Point, which I see merely as a techno-fantasy derived to perhaps reconcile a desperate cultural or spiritual want for god with a physical reality which seems to make no concession for it existence. A sort of, ah, Techno-Pantheism - I suppose.

Also, this is going to need even further clarification... as I simply don't grasp the mechanism by which an AI even attempt "becoming" the universe - which would including becoming the very fabric of our expanding space/time as well.

[Nitro Vordex]

Am I gonna get yelled at for pointing out these are all theories and speculation? ._.

Nothing is gonna happen.

And yes, I didn't want to read all of that. Mostly because I didn't want a brain orgasm from Sinue's posting. :wacko:

[Smidge204]

You shouldn't, because it needs to be pointed out.

Specifically, the line between what the "Singularity" is and what will result from it has been all but lost to some people here.

The concept of the Singularity is that science builds upon science, and so the rate at which scientific discovery and understanding is achieved has been accelerating for over two centuries. The Singularity, then, is the extrapolation of this trend: That the rate at which science advances will continue to accelerate until one discovery is nearly indistinguishable from the next. Imagine new paradigms with the social, economic and technological impacts of the stream engine, powered flight and digital electronics occurring on an annual basis, or perhaps more frequently.

That's what the Singularity is.

It does not require or even imply the creation of artificial intelligence, let alone artificial sentience. The creation of AI may be a consequence but is not a condition. The idea that the Singularity will result in the creation of some sort of deity is very romantic and fanciful but still a fiction.
=Smidge=

[washuguy]

We're gonna ascend to the next level.

And then someone's gonna activate a Trap Card. ._.

LOL LOL LOL ARISE MY MYTHICAL BEAST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! LMAO

[washuguy]

If you believe the Mayans could predict the end of the world then you probably also believe the number 13 is unlucky, avoid black cats and never walk under ladders. The Mayans didn't have any mystical powers, their calendar just happens to end on that date and some people got all paranoid about it. :P

According to them, the earth was blown up 4 times and remade 5

[Nitro Vordex]

I don't walk under ladders because that shit ain't safe.

[Solstis]

You shouldn't, because it needs to be pointed out.

Specifically, the line between what the "Singularity" is and what will result from it has been all but lost to some people here.

The concept of the Singularity is that science builds upon science, and so the rate at which scientific discovery and understanding is achieved has been accelerating for over two centuries. The Singularity, then, is the extrapolation of this trend: That the rate at which science advances will continue to accelerate until one discovery is nearly indistinguishable from the next. Imagine new paradigms with the social, economic and technological impacts of the stream engine, powered flight and digital electronics occurring on an annual basis, or perhaps more frequently.

That's what the Singularity is.

It does not require or even imply the creation of artificial intelligence, let alone artificial sentience. The creation of AI may be a consequence but is not a condition. The idea that the Singularity will result in the creation of some sort of deity is very romantic and fanciful but still a fiction.
=Smidge=

Okay, I'll cut to the point and suggest that you're wrong. Amazing inventions come out pretty often *now*, but lack the market or capital to become widespread. WiMax is out there, but more or less floundering. Not all of the nation even has fiber optic cable, yet. Most of our new technology is either being developed with use of the Internet, or to make use of the Internet more efficient. The Internet is getting pretty close to Asimov's Multivax as it is.

Sounds like your singularity to me.

Not to say that you are, without a doubt wrong, but that the technological singularity is a lot less interesting if Strong A.I. isn't involved. The implications of it are far more astounding than "general progress". Bleh.

**Okay, re-read, and yeah, personifying the Singularity is pretty silly. I'm suggesting that Strong A.I. would be a part of the movement, not the movement itself.

[Smidge204]

"Invention" is not the same as "paradigm shift."

We're talking about things that alter the course of human history... or are you seriously putting the digital computer on the same shelf as the PedEgg (http://www.pedegg.com/)?

=Smidge=

[Sinue_v2]

"Invention" is not the same as "paradigm shift."

We're talking about things that alter the course of human history... or are you seriously putting the digital computer on the same shelf as the PedEgg (http://www.pedegg.com/)?

=Smidge=

Who's to say that the PedEgg cannot alter the course of human history?

For the want of a nail...


It does not require or even imply the creation of artificial intelligence, let alone artificial sentience. The creation of AI may be a consequence but is not a condition.

The very concept of the Singularity itself doesn't require Strong or Weak AI, in strictest definition. However, in practicality, I think it does - as do many other futurists. Not to set up a false dichotomy, but there's basically two major ways of getting the massive data processing needed to come to a singularity scenario. One, is the creation of smarter than human intelligence - be it AI or Organic - that has the capability of creating intelligences superior to itself. We're already starting to do this via our continual merger with technology.

The second, is parallel processing. Having more and more intellectuals working on answering the questions of the universe. This allows for any specific broad branch of study (such as, say, physics) to be broken down into increasingly specified areas of study (such as, say, particle physics). However, reality doesn't operate separately in it's own fields. It's a whole. So a whole new layer is needed to not only disseminate the knowledge gained in any one field to those working in other fields - but to be knowledgeable enough in ALL fields of study to make the connections necessary for paradigm shifts to occur.

Humans, alone, simply aren't capable of doing this. We don't have the processing capability, the inherent communication infrastructure, or the capability to learn and retain the information necessary to make this happen on our own. The universe is the largest (known) level of complex systems, and the understanding of complexity was not possible until the advent of computers. We simply couldn't do the calculations needed. We could recognize the pattern in a vague sense, but we couldn't substantiate it or understand it until something BETTER than us was at the wheel. For instance, refer to my "Want of a nail" aside. That parable has been around, I think, since at least the 16th century. Yet, even today, most people have no real concept of complexity or emergence. (Which is a shame, because if it's basics were taught in school, perhaps there wouldn't be so much misunderstanding about how Evolution works)

One of the problems with a Singularity scenario is that knowledge is simply inert until put into practical application. That practical application is necessary in order to build the next and more powerful generation of tools. So once our ability to make discoveries hits the wall of available resources needed for dissemination and application of that knowledge - the Singularity will essentially be throttled to a more manageable pace. The Singularity will never occur, or at least, won't be able to sustain it's exponential growth.

The creation of AI or the enhancement of human ability, towards this end of gathering, disseminating, and retaining information will be vital. In our current system, we have two tools. The human brain and the computer - each extremely proficient at what the other lacks. The computer can process numbers and recall exact information with far greater accuracy than our brains can. Our brains, on the other hand, can acknowledge patterns and make the connections in data sets necessary for discovery, which computers are still struggling ardently with. Until either human minds can be augmented with a math co-processor and data storage, or computers reach human levels of pattern recognition and sapience - this disconnect will essentially throttle the rate at which discoveries can be made.

So yeah... I do see AI or Enhanced Human intelligence as a necessary component for the Singularity. Even if the Singularity were to occur without the necessary resources for it's sustainability, it would be essentially "toothless". It would happen, and we'd spend decades, if not centuries, trying to catch up and build the infrastructure to make it's discoveries have ANY impact on our lives at all.

... and to a degree, I think that period between that profound knowledge acquisition and it's application would be very dangerous. I think back to what Carl Sagan said about the Library of Alexandria, how it was a repository for knowledge - within which there were even the basic principles for building a steam engine, a discovery, which, upon it's rediscovery helped to usher in the Industrial Revolution. However... since the knowledge gained in the library essentially never left the library and found practical use in the populace's everyday lives, who was there to recognize the potential for the knowledge? Who was there to stop the hordes when they tore the library down? Who was there to stop the coming Dark Ages?


The idea that the Singularity will result in the creation of some sort of deity is very romantic and fanciful but still a fiction.

Agreed.

[Smidge204]

Who's to say that the PedEgg cannot alter the course of human history?

I'll go out on a limb here and say the PedEgg cannot alter the course of human history. Feel free to quote me on that.



The very concept of the Singularity itself doesn't require Strong or Weak AI, in strictest definition. However, in practicality, I think it does - as do many other futurists.

Name some.




Not to set up a false dichotomy, but there's basically two major ways of getting the massive data processing needed to come to a singularity scenario. One, is the creation of smarter than human intelligence ... The second, is parallel processing. ... but to be knowledgeable enough in ALL fields of study to make the connections necessary for paradigm shifts to occur.


Here's an image that is very much related to your comment, although it may not be immediately obvious what the connection is. I promise you it's relevant. Please feel free to take your time contemplating it.

http://img25.imageshack.us/img25/6130/mscalculatorma1.png




Humans, alone, simply aren't capable of doing this.

History mocks every man who has ever muttered such a sentiment. You are not the first and you shall not, I wager, be the last.

I large flaw in your arguments so far is the assumption that paradigm shifts necessitate a global and coordinated change in every field of science simultaneously. This is far from the case. For one, the great thing about science is it works even if it's technically wrong. A radical chance in thinking does not have to apply globally. Example: Relativity Theory replacing Newtonian Physics.

For two, paradigm shifts are rarely deliberate. The chemist who devised a way to decode and analyze DNA very likely knew nothing of medicine, and yet his work has led to a revolution in a field totally unrelated to his own (see point one) but also with no intention of ever doing so. The Wright Brothers cared just as little about space flight as Wernher von Braun did in building communication satellites. Indeed, these men would likely balk at the ideas.



One of the problems with a Singularity scenario is that knowledge is simply inert until put into practical application. That practical application is necessary in order to build the next and more powerful generation of tools.

I think I agree with the overall sentiment, but in practice you seem to be selling Humanity short. I cannot accept that humans are somehow incapable of doing X just because the task seems too grand a scale.




I think back to what Carl Sagan said about the Library of Alexandria, how it was a repository for knowledge - within which there were even the basic principles for building a steam engine, a discovery, which, upon it's rediscovery helped to usher in the Industrial Revolution.

Carl Sagan is also quoted as saying "Intellectual brilliance is no guarantee against being dead wrong." I do respect the man very much, and if you could provide some source for what he had to say about the great Library I would be most appreciative.

If you're referring to the aoelipile though, I don't recall any mention of it in the history of development of modern steam engines.


However... since the knowledge gained in the library essentially never left the library and found practical use in the populace's everyday lives, who was there to recognize the potential for the knowledge? Who was there to stop the hordes when they tore the library down? Who was there to stop the coming Dark Ages?

There's a great snark to be made here against religion, but I'm not gonna make it.

The conversation seems to be wandering at this point...
=Smidge=

[Kion]

Yeah, i does seem to be getting off topic, but nothing bad comes from arguing. You guys may be misenterpretting each other, but it brings about interesting points.

Could be useful to come up with a list of what could bring about the end of the world and then analize the trends.
economy
disease
global warming
colision with comet
some form of diety appearing
AI
aliens
nuclear war

Alot of people interperet the current status in religeos terms. Alot of people are anticipating that in 2012 the anticrist will be sworn into power or that Obama may actually be the antichrist. This fits in more with another conspiracy thoery from the nights templar who were rumored to have found religeous artifacts and became extremely powerful. Some say the organization (like the patriots from mgs) is till around and controlling and pulling strings around the world to create a world order under the anticrist. I guess that`s just how you enterpret it. With technology the world is getting smaller, we already are a globally interdependent world, we need to streamline a system to be able to respond to problems world wide.

The mayan calender does end in 2012 just like my calender ends in December 2009. That doesn`t mean the world is going to end, it just means that i need to go buy a new one.

I don`t think the end is near, but there may be mass population deaths. The planet we live on isn`t very quiet. there`s always massive earth quakes, drought, famine, viruses, valcanos exploding. rather than dooms day it might be better to compair today to the condition that led up to the bubonic plague in Europe.

I`m living in Sendai and they`re saying a huge earth quake could come anytime for here and Tokyo as well. Japan`s also freaked out about a strain of the bird flu that could anahilate half the population. There`s a possibility you could die tomorrow anyway it really doesn`t matter. All you can do is prepare the worst, hope for the best and expect the unexpected.

As god and aliens seem to pop into this topic, i believe in both. There are higher dimensions. We can create 2d universes and be ecentually all power in what we create. If our 2d creations were alive they would not be able to see out of the paper to see their creator, just interpret we exist and what kind of person we are form the content of their world. Nothing would exist on the paper before we right making it seem like matter from no where suddenly appeared when we first put our pen down. We often draw 2d representations of humans, god may be a higher dimensional human like being.

And for aliens they do exist. The universe is too vast and the conditions for earth are not very rare at all. Water is horribly common using the example of our solar system and amino acids really aren`t that hard to come across. Aliens do exist, i just don`t think their the star trek brand of being humanoid and all speak english. Just the sheer distance of space inbetween stars i think it may be a while before someone comes to visit us, or until we`re able to go somewhere. Or they may already be here acording to CNN.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DgZ6maZWOXI
(Dont forget the UFO that flew by inauguration)

The end of the world may be coming, but regardless i think it`s time to exspandinto space. We could use DNA engineering to create a race of intelegent humans to colonize venus into a oriental style planets, make a stronger human to mine minerals from mars while we focus on making a colony named Clyez while we chill to wait around for Wall-E bots to finish cleaning up the environmental mess we left on our home land to be renamed to Parum after we forget the original name.

Edit: also just because it`s old doesn`t make it right. People were extemely supersticious. Traditional alchemy evolved into our modern sciences. It was legend that combining chemicals can bring bout changes and create new materials, then it might be possible to change lead into gold. We know now from that that would take an incredible amount of energy and are still trying to accomplish the same thing from alchemy with particle physics and ect. The mayans did have a very advanced calender, but that`s not to say they were all knowing it just comes from people`s people desire to draw contclusions and rationalize just to even be able to prtend they understand something.

Old cultures being able to use dark arts is a load of crap. Generally they were simple chemical reactions, or like ninjas being mystical becuase they threw flour at people and vanished by jumping in a tree or hiding in a shadow. It would be like believing this guy is super natural:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ybRNdbzMXgs

[Split]

this topic is back! kill it kill it kill it kill it kill it!!!!

[CrimsomWolf]

I'm planning to send a postcard to my drama teacher, who will be hiding in Finland the day after supposed "end of the world" saying "still alive"....

If not... well, at least I won't have to pay any taxes or replay any student loans I might take by that time.

[Kion]

this topic is back! kill it kill it kill it kill it kill it!!!!

^^; sorry if i necroed this i enjoy this kind of subject


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VTbYUd1jUc4

[DreXxiN]

Hahaha. That was awesome.

On a semi-related note. I am Legend took place in 2012. I didn't even know. XD

[MeruAmura]

2012 is up for serious debate sence Nostrdamus while always accurate his predictions are Vague at best. Theyre were always. like
"The new anti-Chist shall born born by someone whose name sounds like ????"
so it could refferance the end of an era not so much the end of the world as a whole

[Thetawaves]

Well i think something will happen, not the end of world though. I think that a possible solar flare that knocks out power for most the world or we actually get a polar shift. Basicly the stuff that can tell us what will happen, not "The world when end this day!".

[KaneKahn]

Wont happen, the end.