TJS

[the_zero]

I need to buy a TJS or find sjs

[psofan219]

To buy TJS: Go ask at the forums of the private server you're playing on, you're going to have much better luck finding a TJS seller there (recommended if you don't care if your TJS is illegit or not)

To find SJS: Grab a Skyly and hit the Seaside if you're offline (or just don't bother), or hit the Towers if you're online. You got a lot of work ahead of you no matter which road you take (recommended if you want a legit SJS/TJS)

Have fun.

[ViewtifulJoe]

The weapon is rare enough that I think it's probable that you could search for one for a year and not find it.

[NegaTsukasa]

I lol at the drop rate of this weapon hard enugh to say that your better off just buying it off some lucky sob who doesn't care for it much.

On the other hand, if your the adventurous type sit back and relax, your going to be there for a while.

[Dnd]

if you get it on the 12,000th gi-gue, thats roughly 360,000 mins spent in seaside ult off-line (30 mins/run, allows for time for loads ect..) or roughly 8 1/3rds month of solid gaming... cant remember how common gi-gues are online (been awhile) but im sure that would drop down ALOT... best bit is you gotta unseal it with something like 12k kills.... all i gotta say is have fun :D

[ViewtifulJoe]

Well, on the bright side, after killing about 8,317 Gi Gues, you've got a 50% chance of finding it.

[NegaTsukasa]

but do these chances reset themselves when you shut your game off?

[Ketchup345]

It isn't that you will get it on the 12,000th try. Basically take a 12,000 sided die (for the SJS), and roll it. If it comes out as 1, the item would have been yours.

It doesn't matter if the game is turned off, because it doesn't count the number of kills you did of a particular enemy.

[ViewtifulJoe]

I think I phrased my comment badly. What I meant is there is a 50% chance of finding SJS after killing 8,317 Gi Gues. So, if you take about 1,000 people and each of them kill that many of them, 50% of those people will find SJS.

Probability is a strange thing.

[Day]

Nah, it's just a (1/12k) droprate from any Gi-Gue, which is around a 0.0083% droprate from any Gi-Gue. So you could get one on the first or on the 12000th, or on the 25000th.

[NegaTsukasa]

darn those dice. X)

[SStrikerR]

I think I phrased my comment badly. What I meant is there is a 50% chance of finding SJS after killing 8,317 Gi Gues. So, if you take about 1,000 people and each of them kill that many of them, 50% of those people will find SJS.

Probability is a strange thing.

Well, not exactly. That the theoretical probability, but it's unlikely that that would actually happen. Odds are less people would find it.

[Tweengo]

To the guy suggesting that it takes half an hour to do a beach area run. Once my games loaded, if I get the run where you start without the boxes appearing (you may know where I mean, sometimes boxes spawn there), I can do a run in about 7 minutes, then it's just a minute and a half maybe of loading time and getting to the beach area again. I can do 6 or 7 runs in an hour (then again my Hunter Skyly is lvl 140-something and I was given a Black King Bar by someone who plays online years ago). I once managed to get 90 Gi Gue kills in one day as I was deperate for that darn sword (it looks so nice in the screen shots :( ). I'm not as dedicated now but I do the odd runs from time to time. I started seriously hunting for it over 2 years ago. Still ain't got it but I keep thinking 'maybe the next one will drop it'. It also helps that I just love the jungle level as the music seriously relaxes me and also makes me feel kind of euphoric (?!?).

[Neith]

The weapon is rare enough that I think it's probable that you could search for one for a year and not find it.

I searched for at least 3 years and never found one. It's not a weapon you can just casually hunt if you want one. If you want it, you have to put a LOT of runs in. I don't even know how many Phantasmal World #4 2-floor runs I did, I just remember I racked up well in excess of 6,000 Gi Gues.

tl;dr: 1/12,604 doesn't sound TOO bad until you factor in that Gi Gue isn't a commonly encountered enemy. It's ridiculously hard to find a Sealed J-Sword.

[ViewtifulJoe]

Well, not exactly. That the theoretical probability, but it's unlikely that that would actually happen. Odds are less people would find it.

Actually with a large enough sample size, theoretical probability translates directly into what will actually happen, and the odds are that 50% ±1% of those people would find the weapon.

I didn't get that number by cutting the chances of finding SJS in half, I did that calculation by rounding the chances of finding the weapon to 1/12K.

This is how I get the number:
The chances of finding AT LEAST ONE SJS after killing X enemies = 100% - the chances of NOT finding SJS after killing X enemies
The chances of NOT finding it after killing 1 enemy = 11999/12000
The chances of that result occurring X time = (11999/12000)^X

My goal then was to find the number X that made (11999/12000)^X equal to 1/2, and to find that, you just have to do log(1/2) with the base of 11999/12000 or log(1/2)/log(11999/12000)

[Vanzazikon]

Nah, it's just a (1/12k) droprate from any Gi-Gue, which is around a 0.0083% droprate from any Gi-Gue. So you could get one on the first or on the 12000th, or on the 25000th.Or never. Unless you're immortal.

[SStrikerR]

Actually with a large enough sample size, theoretical probability translates directly into what will actually happen, and the odds are that 50% ±1% of those people would find the weapon.

I didn't get that number by cutting the chances of finding SJS in half, I did that calculation by rounding the chances of finding the weapon to 1/12K.

This is how I get the number:
The chances of finding AT LEAST ONE SJS after killing X enemies = 100% - the chances of NOT finding SJS after killing X enemies
The chances of NOT finding it after killing 1 enemy = 11999/12000
The chances of that result occurring X time = (11999/12000)^X

My goal then was to find the number X that made (11999/12000)^X equal to 1/2, and to find that, you just have to do log(1/2) with the base of 11999/12000 or log(1/2)/log(11999/12000)
Well I hope you enjoyed doing the math, because that's still not what would happen.

[ViewtifulJoe]

Or never. Unless you're immortal.

Even if you are immortal, whatever you're playing PSO on isn't.


Well I hope you enjoyed doing the math, because that's still not what would happen.

Well, I explained my method, so are you going to tell me why you're so sure of that?

[SStrikerR]

Even if you are immortal, whatever you're playing PSO on isn't.



Well, I explained my method, so are you going to tell me why you're so sure of that?

Well, considering the limits of my mathematical education is capped at 9th grade right now, I can't give you any specific method besides the fact that it just won't happen.

[ViewtifulJoe]

Well, considering the limits of my mathematical education is capped at 9th grade right now, I can't give you any specific method besides the fact that it just won't happen.

Lol, ok.

If 1,000 people each flip a coin, about 50% of them will get heads.

If 1,000 people each kill 8,317 Gi Gues, about 50% of them will find at least one SJS.

What you may not realize having only gained a 9th grade math education is that those two statements say the same thing. Don't you find it at least a little strange to say it's a "fact" that it won't happen yet have no way of backing it up at all? Facts are generally (always) irrefutable.

[SStrikerR]

Lol, ok.

If 1,000 people each flip a coin, about 50% of them will get heads. That's what would happen in theory, yes. But go flip a coin 100 times and see how balanced it is. The odds of it coming out at a 50/50 split are pretty slim.


If 1,000 people each kill 8,317 Gi Gues, about 50% of them will find at least one SJS. See above.


What you may not realize having only gained a 9th grade math education is that those two statements say the same thing. Don't you find it at least a little strange to say it's a "fact" that it won't happen yet have no way of backing it up at all? Facts are generally (always) irrefutable. Well if you really want me to I'll keep this bookmarked so in a few years I can come back and back myself up. But for now I think I'm fine.

...Either way, this is getting slightly off topic. Unless you get really lucky, the SJS will take you a fairly long time to find. And, if the odds like to screw with you, you may never find it at all. There's nothing you can do but hunt.

[ViewtifulJoe]

I'm ignoring all parts of you post but this one. Obviously you know nothing about statistics and probability, because if you did, you would know that what I'm saying is correct. I'm sorry to put it so bluntly, but if you were actually going to bookmark such a trivial thread to review later, you would see that.


That's what would happen in theory, yes. But go flip a coin 100 times and see how balanced it is. The odds of it coming out at a 50/50 split are pretty slim.

Never once did I say a 50/50 split or exactly 50%. The truth is though, as the sample size approaches ∞, then the outcome approaches exactly 50%. 1,000 is a whole order of magnitude above 100, and the results will reflect that.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sample_size#Estimating_proportions
As this article states, a sample size of 1,000 will yield a margin of error of about 1%, which means my statement in a previous post that 50% ±1% of people would find it is accurate. Do you know what ±1% means? It means within 1% of 50, not exactly 50.

I'm sorry that I seem to be going overboard with this, but frankly it's pretty annoying when someone with no knowledge of a subject challenges me needlessly. I'm open to debate always, but only with people who know what they're talking about. If I was in your situation I would take this as an opportunity to learn something about an area I don't understand instead of just asserting I'm right so I can feel good about myself.

[SStrikerR]

I'm ignoring all parts of you post but this one. Obviously you know nothing about statistics and probability, No fucking shit, did I not say that MORE than once already?
but if you were actually going to bookmark such a trivial thread to review later, you would see that. It's called a joke. Live with it.




Never once did I say a 50/50 split or exactly 50%.
I think I phrased my comment badly. What I meant is there is a 50% chance of finding SJS after killing 8,317 Gi Gues. So, if you take about 1,000 people and each of them kill that many of them, 50% of those people will find SJS.

Probability is a strange thing.

Read it and weep. You even said it in a post before this, although this was you "better phrased" comment.


If I was in your situation I would take this as an opportunity to learn something about an area I don't understand instead of just asserting I'm right so I can feel good about myself.
Well the truth is you aren't, and I really don't care what you would do if you were me.
Oh, by the way...you're still wrong.

And with that, I'm done. Feel free to have the final word good sir.

[Ketchup345]

Original poster got his questions answered. Thread no longer on topic.