Alcuin
Jun 4, 2003, 03:43 AM
Firstly, there is very little hard evidence to back any of this up. However, I think it is much more logical than the plethora of nonsense being perpetuated by superstitious fools and wild rumor mills. This might be all old news to the elite players who know inside scoops and are not telling. Still, it might be helpful to the rest of us.
Facts WE KNOW ARE TRUE:
1. A number is associated with each TYPE of rare. This number somehow relates to how rare the item actually is. (Post in forums)
2. Every monster has an associated per cent chance that any item will drop at all. (Taken from PSOW info)
3. % Photon add to weapons is based upon 6 variations which are randomly decided upon creation of the game. This variation will fix the chances for all of the photon % adds. Certain variations allow you to find weapons with 90% and 100%. Others DO NOT. Beyond that it is assumed that the game then operates based on these chances regardless of time, date, whether you are rubbing your tummy or have luck materials or whatever. (Taken from PSOW info).
4. Everyone has experienced what they think are "hot times" where numerous rares may drop. I've even had up to four rares drop in one room of mines ALONE. People then ASSUME these are "hot times" and if they came back at that beat time that they would get rares. Their experiences, however, are NOT confirmation. The conclusion that beat time is related is a FALLACY OF LOGIC.
My theory. I'm beginning to believe the number associated with each TYPE of rare is somewhat similar to a percentage add on the photon efficiency. In other words, you would consider it very rare to find a 100% add on something like Natives. In the same way, a psycho wand may have a number that makes it equally as rare. So when you start the game, it calculates what frequency is associated with each rare based upon the number that rare is attached to. EXACTLY like the photon percents are. In other words, certain games that are started may give you 0% CHANCE OF GETTING A PSYCHO WAND or any other very rare item. Perhaps certain versions provide small percent chances of obtaining those items. Once in the game, all calculations are based upon that set frequency. The next calculation is when the monster dies. This will be the calculation of whether an item drops at all! Once that is calculated, the next thing it calculates is whether it will drop the rare item that particular monster drops based upon the percentage set upon creating the game. There is no beat time this is based upon. There is no luck material or luck items that this is based upon. There is nothing but a set series of calculations associated with the initial numbers given upon creating the game.
If you are in a game where NO rares seem to be dropping... not even booma's claws or whatever item your section id drops a lot of, you may consider recreating the game. See if you can reset the version. Those people who seem to find rares dropping all over are simply in a better version. They are not at a hot time. They do not have higher levels of luck.
If you think about it this makes sense. We already know that Sonic Team made frequencies of photon %s based upon starting the game. Why not rares? We know that it would be more intelligent to do it this way, because the number of games created is much smaller than the number of monsters killed. Therefore, in a large community of people where thousands of people are all killing monsters (ie throwing the dice), you can still maintain the rareness of the item if only 5-10% of those thousand are actually provided any chance of rolling the dice for a psycho wand to begin with. We also know that they use section ids at the creation of the game to set the chances of what items drop. In the end I think my theory is the most realistic.
Sorry beat time hunters. Sorry luck material psychos. Your only chance of finding rares is to play, recreate, and play again. Do a run. Leave. Do a run again. Etc.
Facts WE KNOW ARE TRUE:
1. A number is associated with each TYPE of rare. This number somehow relates to how rare the item actually is. (Post in forums)
2. Every monster has an associated per cent chance that any item will drop at all. (Taken from PSOW info)
3. % Photon add to weapons is based upon 6 variations which are randomly decided upon creation of the game. This variation will fix the chances for all of the photon % adds. Certain variations allow you to find weapons with 90% and 100%. Others DO NOT. Beyond that it is assumed that the game then operates based on these chances regardless of time, date, whether you are rubbing your tummy or have luck materials or whatever. (Taken from PSOW info).
4. Everyone has experienced what they think are "hot times" where numerous rares may drop. I've even had up to four rares drop in one room of mines ALONE. People then ASSUME these are "hot times" and if they came back at that beat time that they would get rares. Their experiences, however, are NOT confirmation. The conclusion that beat time is related is a FALLACY OF LOGIC.
My theory. I'm beginning to believe the number associated with each TYPE of rare is somewhat similar to a percentage add on the photon efficiency. In other words, you would consider it very rare to find a 100% add on something like Natives. In the same way, a psycho wand may have a number that makes it equally as rare. So when you start the game, it calculates what frequency is associated with each rare based upon the number that rare is attached to. EXACTLY like the photon percents are. In other words, certain games that are started may give you 0% CHANCE OF GETTING A PSYCHO WAND or any other very rare item. Perhaps certain versions provide small percent chances of obtaining those items. Once in the game, all calculations are based upon that set frequency. The next calculation is when the monster dies. This will be the calculation of whether an item drops at all! Once that is calculated, the next thing it calculates is whether it will drop the rare item that particular monster drops based upon the percentage set upon creating the game. There is no beat time this is based upon. There is no luck material or luck items that this is based upon. There is nothing but a set series of calculations associated with the initial numbers given upon creating the game.
If you are in a game where NO rares seem to be dropping... not even booma's claws or whatever item your section id drops a lot of, you may consider recreating the game. See if you can reset the version. Those people who seem to find rares dropping all over are simply in a better version. They are not at a hot time. They do not have higher levels of luck.
If you think about it this makes sense. We already know that Sonic Team made frequencies of photon %s based upon starting the game. Why not rares? We know that it would be more intelligent to do it this way, because the number of games created is much smaller than the number of monsters killed. Therefore, in a large community of people where thousands of people are all killing monsters (ie throwing the dice), you can still maintain the rareness of the item if only 5-10% of those thousand are actually provided any chance of rolling the dice for a psycho wand to begin with. We also know that they use section ids at the creation of the game to set the chances of what items drop. In the end I think my theory is the most realistic.
Sorry beat time hunters. Sorry luck material psychos. Your only chance of finding rares is to play, recreate, and play again. Do a run. Leave. Do a run again. Etc.