Is it true that level affects the odds or rare drops?

[TheAlmightyNewbie]

Someone said to wait until level 120 or so (yikes) before I go for my god/battle, and I wanted to confirm or unconfirm this. thanks

[VioletSkye]

level has nothing to do with drops frequency

[Soukosa]

The amount of time you've spent in an area can be shown to affect the chances of a rare dropping, but in the end, it's all about luck.

[TheAlmightyNewbie]

On 2003-07-31 18:55, Kalonera wrote:
The amount of time you've spent in an area can be shown to affect the chances of a rare dropping, but in the end, it's all about luck.



Do you mean cumulative, or time spent since you turned on PSO?

[Soukosa]

On 2003-07-31 19:19, TheAlmightyNewbie wrote:
Do you mean cumulative, or time spent since you turned on PSO?

Cummulative. It's part of a theory I have.

[TheAlmightyNewbie]

On 2003-07-31 19:23, Kalonera wrote:


On 2003-07-31 19:19, TheAlmightyNewbie wrote:
Do you mean cumulative, or time spent since you turned on PSO?

Cummulative. It's part of a theory I have.



theory, eh? interesting http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_wink.gif i personally haven't noticed a lot of difference... ive already gotten close to half of the rares ult forest has to offer with my redria in about a week or so o_O

[Soukosa]

Do you have a rough idea of how many runs you have done there in the Forest?

[Blue-Hawk]

Well, if time and levels do affect rare drops, then I wouldnt be bashing my purplenum ramarl. She is lv 166 and has close to 800 hours on her. And she barely finds a damned thing.

[LoreSeeker]

I wish I would stop finding stuff!! Make the Gae Bolgs stop!!!

[Superfly_TNT]

On 2003-07-31 20:34, blue-hawk wrote:
Well, if time and levels do affect rare drops, then I wouldnt be bashing my purplenum ramarl. She is lv 166 and has close to 800 hours on her. And she barely finds a damned thing.



800 hours?!?! u play too much.

[TheAlmightyNewbie]

On 2003-07-31 19:34, Kalonera wrote:
Do you have a rough idea of how many runs you have done there in the Forest?



i havent done any normal forest runs, lol... ive done 1 run through - all of the first 3 quests, FiY (didnt quite finish it), and native research... ive done about 10 or 12 runs through FoS (most were incomplete due to alicia dying).

[Blue-Hawk]

On 2003-07-31 21:00, Superfly_TNT wrote:


On 2003-07-31 20:34, blue-hawk wrote:
Well, if time and levels do affect rare drops, then I wouldnt be bashing my purplenum ramarl. She is lv 166 and has close to 800 hours on her. And she barely finds a damned thing.



800 hours?!?! u play too much.


Yup, thats th sad truth of my pathetic existance.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: blue-hawk on 2003-07-31 21:04 ]</font>

[lordinviso]

Your luck sucks Blue-Hawk lol.

[ssephiroth_da_hunter]

I dont think your level determines if you can find a certain or any rare you want. I think you fina a rere depending how high your luck stat is.

[jspacemunkey]

luck affects critical hits, not your chance to find rares.

jc

[Reenee]

We're talking about luck in terms of chance, not the LCK stat. *dopeslap*


Hey, maybe time might be involved? I swear I can get just one good rare item simply by rushing through the areas.

[jspacemunkey]

don't know if that slap was meant for me...hope not, considering that i was responding to ssep's statement. he said that he believed the "luck stat" affected one's chance to find rares. i understand that lordinviso and others were talking about random chance luck.

jc

[Soukosa]

On 2003-07-31 20:34, blue-hawk wrote:
Well, if time and levels do affect rare drops, then I wouldnt be bashing my purplenum ramarl. She is lv 166 and has close to 800 hours on her. And she barely finds a damned thing.

My theory on the amount of time affecting the chances of rares doesn't quite go how you think it is.



On 2003-07-31 21:03, TheAlmightyNewbie wrote:
i havent done any normal forest runs, lol... ive done 1 run through - all of the first 3 quests, FiY (didnt quite finish it), and native research... ive done about 10 or 12 runs through FoS (most were incomplete due to alicia dying).

If you do alot more runs (and I do mean alot) there and don't really spend alot of time elsewhere, you'll see something. I saw something with my HUnewearl after spending many levels mainly in just Ult Forest and Caves. What I saw afterwards, is what caused me to develop my theory. Sometime, I need to write it out and post it here.

[silvermax]

i would like to hear your theory

[Splitter]

Does beat count effect rare findage (you like that word? lol)?

[Neoluke12]

Well I know where this is going but I think certian things drop certain items and you just gotta wait to get these special Items dunno how long though.

[silvermax]

sometimes it looks like Beet counts have everything to do with the "rare findage"

and others its like.. Whoa where did that come from?

i have my doubts... but the coincidences are just too great to not notice sometimes ie: finding the same item around the same beet time in the same room 3 days striate...

[Fanatic]

My personal take on .beat time findings of rares and rare enemies:

Hype.

While time is often used to seed random number generators, it is usually only done once, and with a full timestamp. In other words, even if the random number gen in pso was seeded at each pipe, it would be impossible to hit the same number twice (since it would have millisec precision).

What really happens here is that people notice an odd coincidence well within the bounds of probability and statistics.
Then they post their .beat times and a rabid horde of item finders trye them out. And according with simple statistics some of them find a rare, and suddenly we have yet more .beat time believers, "confirming" the .beat number they tried on online lists.. doh!

Some day, I think I'll pick a .beat number and claim to have found torrs on it two days in a row. My bet is that people will start posting confirmations of that within a few days ^_^

[VulpesMundi]

Time as in your character's total time doesn't effect item findings. I can prove that by giving a simple example. I found an Aura Field (strongest armor in the game) in the Ultimate VR Temple off a Mil Lily with a level 40 Oran HUnewearl who had around 15 hours of total playtime at the time. Since then she's found another 2 Aura Fields out of 3 more lilies. An extremely valuable item with an 11-star rating dropping at such low levels would seem to completely irradicate the possibility that total time has an effect.

Another interesting example: I have a Whitill HUmar and a Redria RAmar just a few levels apart with roughly the same total playtime (around 100 hours). I tried and tried and tried to find a Meteor Cudgel from a Whitill Arlan, but never succeeded. Not even trying with my Redria, I managed to get one off an Indi Belra. The Redria also scored a Spread Needle off a Dark Bringer, which was the goal. On the other hand, while the Whitill was failing to find a Meteor Cudgel, he did manage to score Rico's Glasses AND Rico's Earrings.

The concept of continuously playing in one area will eventually pay off, simply because you're cycling the item drops through that area only. Logic says that eventually everything will drop if you keep doing this, though it could take a very long time. In the end everything is all about luck of the draw. The system will cough up something when it does. Just be patient. Best thing I can suggest is to not play an area with the intent of finding any specific items. That way you won't get as dissappointed when worthless crap continuously drops.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: VulpesMundi on 2003-08-01 03:07 ]</font>

[Neoluke12]

Beat time does effect everything as i found a red slime luck material, Inferno bazooka and last survivor all in the same room in the same beat.

[VulpesMundi]

That's a major coincidence, considering those are completely unrelated items. If the beat time theory was true you'd find a whole bunch of the same item in the same beat. Bet you if you played at the exact same location, killing the exact same enemies at the exact same beat with the exact same character, that event wouldn't happen again. Give it a try. A couple of coincidences strung together need to be seen as just that: coincidences. Rumors start because people don't take the time to investigate such things deeply.

[Neoluke12]

It probaly wont because I dont belive in beat time affecting rare creatures.

[ctrl]

There is a way to prove that the theory is about beat times is right or wrong. Maybe I'll suggest in the Beat Times thread one day, but I think it's to difficult to get everyone co-operating in that.

When you hunt for a rare monster, count the amount of normal monsters and the amount of rare ones. Everyone should report it to that thread and the beat times. Everyone could do 50 beats (so one does 1-50 beats, another one 51 to 100). At the end you could see if the odds of finding a rare monster is different in the different beat times. But then again, I don't think you can get everyone helping in that.

I guess I was slightly offtopic there http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/anime1.gif, so now on topic, I do believe some items have some kind of lvl req. After did about 20 runs with my Oran in Ult. Forest I became lvl 100. That's when I first got a Custom ray 00. After that, I found tons of them. I though that was kind of strange and I might have to do with lvl req.

*Edit, of course you have to take one specific rare monster, they might have different odds*

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: ctrl on 2003-08-01 06:32 ]</font>

[Fanatic]

I think you can pretty much rule out the lvl req, at least for your example.

I've found a couple of custom rays, and I haven't even got a lvl 100 char (yet) ^_^

[ctrl]

Yeah, I though it was strange, so why not post it here http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_razz.gif. I don't really believe in it as well, but I was surprised with it myself. http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_smile.gif

[Kunio]

ok i have noob question...whats a beat count? or beat time?

[Fanatic]

The time system used in PSO is Swatch's .beat system. Basically a day is divided into 1000 beats, and there are no time zones.
Idea is good for online multiplayer. You could arrange to meet someone at 920, and everyone would know exactly when it is.
Also, since a day is 1k beats, time-based math gets much much simpler with beat times.

Whenever you pull up the game menu, current beat time is displayed in the lower right corner.

[Blue-Hawk]

You know, you have just got to wonder why people just will not accept the fact that rare items and rare enemies are just a random algorythm embeded in the core if the game code.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: blue-hawk on 2003-08-01 08:46 ]</font>

[Soukosa]

Sometime after I don't feel like I've banged my head on the wall 20 or so times (i.e. I have a headache), I'll post my theory, for all of you to rip to pieces. I have enough logic and examples from my experience to support it. The theory even supports how Vulpes managed to get that Aura Field as easily as he did (which, BTW, 11 star guards tend to drop at the same rate as 10 star weapons).

[Fanatic]

I'll be looking forward to it, it should prove interesting.

A few points before you eventually post it:

1) Make sure that you take a statistical approach to the evidence. Like I already mentioned, posted .beat time lists have a way of screwing their own statistical credibility over in time.

2) A good scientific approach to proving things are to attempt disproving them. Look over your theory carefully and imagine test scenarios which could refute it. If you repeatedly fail your best efforts to disprove your theory, it is much more credible.