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Armageddon013
Apr 1, 2004, 06:34 PM
Better Items at certain beats? what times are the best?

Bender202
Apr 1, 2004, 06:40 PM
I dont think there is a difference in the items u get at a certain beat. You just have to get lucky.

Armageddon013
Apr 1, 2004, 07:15 PM
i have been told like 333 and 369 and stuff that have stuff in common make reares easier to find

Hrith
Apr 1, 2004, 07:18 PM
Beats do not affect rare drops or rare monsters appearances.

Cc08
Apr 1, 2004, 07:20 PM
Few people still believe in the beat time theory... alot used to believe at 666 you had a better chance of getting a rare enemy and alot supported this, but that's just because they piped only around 666...

magicmage119
Apr 1, 2004, 07:52 PM
Okay, I never believed the beats theory also but how do you explain this? I was doing fake in yellow runs for about 20 minutes and I got 18 materials and 7 red boxes. Then at like.. 830 beats, I started getting crap and that continued for the rest of the time. Also, last night i was piping at 10:00 (Don't know beat translation) and got 3 pals in 20 minutes... Coincidence? Could be...

Cc08
Apr 1, 2004, 08:00 PM
Coincidence, sooo much dumb luck involved with this game http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_razz.gif

Armageddon013
Apr 1, 2004, 08:00 PM
i have noticed the best time to play are 9:00-11:00P.M and 7:00-10:00A.M.
Coincidence? or do you all seem to find weapons and stuff atr that time?

Xero_Silvera
Apr 1, 2004, 09:26 PM
search the forums before posting, the beat theory WAS proven wrong many times.. i'v read the entire 20 semod page thread about beats affecting blah blah. my comp is wroking properly or id post the link myself.. X.X
-xero

LoreSeeker
Apr 1, 2004, 10:18 PM
The beat theory is just that: a theory. There isn't much strong evidence, and most people just choose to ignore it rather than wasting their time trying to figure it out.

Zelendria_Ru
Apr 1, 2004, 11:43 PM
My opinion is this...if it works to you, keep it up...I *always* find a Mil lily in addicting food if I pipe at 10pm pst (can't remember the beat)...

I say that this is interesting because when I pipe at any other time I *never* get a rare mob...

And as far as the *theory* goes, there are many variables...just as a certain mob in a particular location for a particular ID will affect the drop, so can the beats be good for some and ineffective for others...

As to proof...there is none...no one with the ability to scan the actual game coding has found a correlation to beat, even though they have been able to find the exact % chance of a particular enemy dropping and what % chance of it dropping, ah, a MKB, for example... down to the decimal point...

I can tell you this...if I piped lilies at 10pm tonight I could get my choice of a demo. comet or a Sange, depending on which of my charas I was playing.

If nothing else, its the fragile sense of control I feel I have in obtaining these rare monsters that gives me the confidence to *know* I will get the mob...perhaps this effects the chance??? (j/k) =)

Hrith
Apr 2, 2004, 10:05 AM
Your post is just proof to what PaleKid15 and Cc08 said, you only look at one time and think there is a correlation to your rare enemy finding.



On 2004-04-01 20:43, Zelendria_Ru wrote:
As to proof...there is none...no one with the ability to scan the actual game coding has found a correlation to beat, even though they have been able to find the exact % chance of a particular enemy dropping and what % chance of it dropping, ah, a MKB, for example... down to the decimal point...
Which is a proof.

PaleKid15
Apr 2, 2004, 02:52 PM
Wow... kef referred to something I said... Yay. The BTT isn't a theory anymore. Because it's wrong. If there was any correlation between beat times and anything other than the position of the sun in the sky and the time on your clock, people like Sounomi (those who look at the games code) would know by now. BTW-sorry for pwning you with my mad probability skillz kef.

Armageddon013
Apr 2, 2004, 04:57 PM
Ok, Thanks for clearing that up guys... i guess its all about just getting damn lucky, and i am SHlT outta Luck...

Zelendria_Ru
Apr 2, 2004, 07:07 PM
you only look at one time and think there is a correlation to your rare enemy finding.


I would never do that Kef...I am referring to the 6 mil lilys I have piped within 10 minutes of eachother on different days...and the hours and hours I've spent "off-beat" with no luck finding the same mobs...

even when I am not piping I tend to get rares at exactly 10pm...that's offline, heh, I think my GC clock is like 30 minutes slow though...

my only point is that why should I pipe at 3pm if I get all my lilies at 10?

To rephrase...this is not a one-time thing...I have gotten no less than 6 mil lilies at PREDICTABLE and CONSISTANT beats...that throws randomality out of the window...if its so random then I shouldn't be able to pipe for 5 minutes and get the mob...sometimes it should take hours or never show up

as to why it is happening, or not happening at different times, I do not know. But I don't feel at all stupid saying that I know WHEN to pipe.

Given that its is a random chance that I see a rare enemy, wouldn't I have a better chance finding one piping for one hour than I would for 15 minutes? Yet time and again that 15 minutes before my clock says 10pm is the time I get my mils...the other day I piped in addicting food from 2:00 to 3:30pm and never once saw a mil...

Anyways, I am not challenging your opinion Kef, simply that I cannot allow you to reduce my findings and experiences, regardless if I have the hard evidence explaining WHY it happens...ask around, how long do most people spend at TPing mil lilies...do most say that the longest they had to do it is 30 minutes?

Maybe they will say that you are guaranteed one within 30 mintues...but does this mean that sometime along that 30 minutes you hit a "hot beat" ???

Mostly I just wish to discuss the philosophy behind the fact that I think that time might be a factor, because if telepiping alone was enough, I would get the same results at any time of the day...but I don't.

Hrith
Apr 2, 2004, 09:06 PM
Do I sound so mean and haughty ?

well anyway, you post brings two other arguments against beats :

1) if you got them around 10 PM, mus be cuz you mostly play at that time.

2) if beats affected weapons, some people in the world would be more lucky than others, since when it's 10 PM here, it can be 5 AM there.

Aiya
Apr 7, 2004, 05:49 PM
I still believe in the beat theory. No one has ever disproven it. People say that it has been, but I see no proof of that. I play a lot at seperate times, but I only find certain things at the same times all the time despite the other times that I play. Rares always seem to appear at specific beats. The beat theory works, so its good enough for me.

Kiri
Apr 7, 2004, 05:59 PM
you are right there is no proof...but...i know for a fact that is is not true and the theory does not work. I go searching fo the rares at the beats that were posted and "nothing" not a single rare. I always find them at different times.The beats are like an online timer thing, and that is all.

azngamer648
Apr 8, 2004, 12:50 AM
I really dont believe in the beat time theory except maybe for 666 beats since I saw my first Torr there.

PaleKid15
Apr 8, 2004, 01:20 PM
God I hate you people... IF THE BTT WAS RIGHT, PEOPLE LIKE KEF, SOUNOMI, AND VULPES WOULD KNOW! None of them support the BTT, thus meaning the BTT is wrong. Trust them, they are smarter than you.

Ketchup345
Apr 8, 2004, 01:30 PM
On 2004-04-08 11:20, PaleKid15 wrote:
God I hate you people... IF THE BTT WAS RIGHT, PEOPLE LIKE KEF, SOUNOMI, AND VULPES WOULD KNOW! None of them support the BTT, thus meaning the BTT is wrong. Trust them, they are smarter than you.


1) Kef follows what Sou says (and occasionally doesn't believe her because of his own experiances).
2) I don't remember Sou ever saying that she looked that information up.
3) I don't know about Vulpes.


But my own experiances support the BTT. I play the Forest and Caves almost exclusively. I have piped every timeframe from 12 noon to 10 at night (concentrating mostly at around 6 P.M.). I got more rare monsters piping between 9 and 10, than any other time. I play each time period about the same amount total.

PaleKid15
Apr 8, 2004, 01:43 PM
Ever hear of luck? That explains it. If you piped evry day for about a month at the same time, and a rae enemy appeared at the EXACT same time, I would believe you. However, this will never happen because it goes against everything anyone knows about PSO, and that is the fact that EVERYTHING IS RANDOM. The game will not knock the 1/512 down to something else, because of BT. I do not know too much about PSO's programming, but I would assume that it has quite lengthy code and that the number of operations the game and cube go through while you play are very numerous. Such a concept as using a different random # generator for evry enemy in every area at evry different beat, is rediculous. The cube would explode. The game goes has plenty of problems merely walking around P2 (BSOD,FSOD, BSODX,FSODX...). The BTT just does not seem plausible. And unfortunately for evryone here, some people will lie about their experiences just so people will belive what they believe (not accusing anyone in particular). So the theory will never be supported by evryone, or dismissed by evryone.

Hrith
Apr 8, 2004, 02:08 PM
I agree with PaleKid, everyone that "supports" BT begins with "in my experience" which is irrelevant in the first place.

I remember getting more Red Slime during the peak intensity of my Lavis hunt around 10 PM GMT, that's 4 PM EST, I think.

When DC v1 was out, there was an announcement from ST that explained that the purpose of beats were so people don't have to calculate what time it is here or there, and can just say "let's meet at @237".
It turned out that two weapons work according to beats (Heaven Punisher and Morning Glory), which does not allow us to say much about how beats are programmed.

I play at very different hours, and never noticed more luck at any time, not even approximately.
It's just how human brain works, it remembers what it wants to, focuses on certain aspects, a machine does not.

DezoPenguin
Apr 8, 2004, 02:20 PM
On 2004-04-08 12:08, Kef wrote:

It's just how human brain works, it remembers what it wants to, focuses on certain aspects, a machine does not.



Very true. They are the very same facets of human psychology that leads us to believe in intuition, psychic powers, Bible codes, Nostradamus's prophecies, and conspiracy theories, and to see images in clouds and constellations of stars.

We're conditioned to (1) look for patterns and (2) to try to exercise some control over the events in our lives. The concept that all we can do is keep killing the same monster over and over (for drops) or running into rooms with the same monster type over and over (for rare enemies) is repugnant. We seek control--to add some factor that gives us the power to get rares "on demand." And moreover, we see patterns when they do not exist, because the mind wants everything to fit into a pattern.

Moreover, very few of us really understand statistics. I barely remember anything from...geez, what was it, Stat 201? For example, my wife and I have only seen three red slimes in our combined 2000+ hours of PSO playing on two consoles. Until last week, that number was 2...with her Purplenum RAmarl and my Purplenum RAmarl. That sounds like a pattern--the mind wants it to be a pattern--but when you hold it up against the math, in the cold hard light of the figures, it's just not statistically significant. It's only blind luck (and to drive that point home, yes, the third slime popped for my Yellowboze). But the human brain doesn't want to accept that it's luck, and psychology often wins out over an unpalatable and difficult-to-understand truth.

Ketchup345
Apr 8, 2004, 03:12 PM
On 2004-04-08 12:08, Kef wrote:
I agree with PaleKid, everyone that "supports" BT begins with "in my experience" which is irrelevant in the first place.

And yet you use that as a way to try to disprove Sou and info directly from the game.




On 2004-04-08 12:08, Kef wrote:
I play at very different hours, and never noticed more luck at any time, not even approximately.
It's just how human brain works, it remembers what it wants to, focuses on certain aspects, a machine does not.

But that's how testing is done. Each person tries something until they find the answer.

Ok, maybe I did get lucky with the 1/512 odds during those times. But having a rare enemy every piping session between 9-10, and fewer between 5-7 (same enemy, and more time and concentration spent between 5-7), I doubt that. Has anyone actually ever looked specifically for beat times affecting rare enemies (I don't remember ever seeing anyone post that)?



When DC v1 was out, there was an announcement from ST that explained that the purpose of beats were so people don't have to calculate what time it is here or there, and can just say "let's meet at @237".
It turned out that two weapons work according to beats (Heaven Punisher and Morning Glory), which does not allow us to say much about how beats are programmed.
This is also the ST that didn't respond to several people's emails asking about the J-Sword unsealing, and pointing them to the 1k+ post thread here. You can't always trust information just because a developer gives it out (although they are more reliable than anyone else).


http://www.pso-world.com/viewtopic.php?topic=72625&forum=7
At least 3 people dedicated at least 24 hours to piping one enemy. Each found a higher concentration around a certain time period. The Beat time theory (the origional) was not researched properly, like it was in that thread, since it only reported piping at certain beat times. This second study had people working on it for hours at a time, not concentrating at a specific time, and is more accurate than the old (and locked one).
Also, there are still many people who believe it, and until game data has been found, I will still believe that there is a possibility of it working.


Please don't bump that topic I linked to, it is too old.

Hrith
Apr 8, 2004, 03:34 PM
On 2004-04-08 13:12, Ketchup345 wrote:


On 2004-04-08 12:08, Kef wrote:
I agree with PaleKid, everyone that "supports" BT begins with "in my experience" which is irrelevant in the first place.

And yet you use that as a way to try to disprove Sou and info directly from the game.
Like what ? o_O





On 2004-04-08 12:08, Kef wrote:
I play at very different hours, and never noticed more luck at any time, not even approximately.
It's just how human brain works, it remembers what it wants to, focuses on certain aspects, a machine does not.

But that's how testing is done. Each person tries something until they find the answer.
Like Dezo said, very few people have any clue about statistics, it would take a lot more people that one can imagine to conduct a reliable statistic research.

Dezo's post pretty well sums up all there is to know about the BT : people want to control the game, while they can't, they want to make drops "happen" while it is impossible.
The human mind has a tendency to refuse the idea of impossibitity, but that's the case with PSO, people need to get over it.

The beat theory is wrong, and it is only giving people false hopes.

Ketchup345
Apr 8, 2004, 03:53 PM
On 2004-04-08 13:34, Kef wrote:
Like what ? o_O
Drop rates. I remember on at least occasion, the drop rates she had didn't come anywhere near your experiance, you called her a liar.




Like Dezo said, very few people have any clue about statistics, it would take a lot more people that one can imagine to conduct a reliable statistic research.

Dezo's post pretty well sums up all there is to know about the BT : people want to control the game, while they can't, they want to make drops "happen" while it is impossible.
The human mind has a tendency to refuse the idea of impossibitity, but that's the case with PSO, people need to get over it.
Yes, everyone wants to controll the game. Some do it by believing in the beat theory (impossible that there is no way to increase the odds of making something happen more often), others by not believing it (impossible that the theory works).



The beat theory is wrong, and it is only giving people false hopes.
Where is the game data proving this? I haven't seen it (it's the only 100% proof). Until then, we only have experiance to go on. Each person's experiance differs. But when 3+ people do testing for at least 12 hours each, then that gives some chance it is true, and defeats the idea that it is 100% wrong, until much further research has been conducted (or info pulled from the code).

Hrith
Apr 8, 2004, 04:21 PM
On 2004-04-08 13:53, Ketchup345 wrote:


On 2004-04-08 13:34, Kef wrote:
Like what ? o_O
Drop rates. I remember on at least occasion, the drop rates she had didn't come anywhere near your experiance, you called her a liar.
http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_lol.gif
The chain sawd/red sword in Skyly ?
yeah, but I was kidding, I found 46 Chain Sawds so far and only 7 Red Swords, which has a better drop rate.


But when 3+ people do testing for at least 12 hours each, then that gives some chance it is true, and defeats the idea that it is 100% wrong
Not to me, far from it.

I'd just rather not give people false hopes, let alone tell them to hunt at specific times when NOTHING can prove it right.

Some people might want to do some research (I can't), but let's not mislead "regular" players into something that is so likely to be untrue.

Remember how lazy ST is.

Ketchup345
Apr 8, 2004, 04:31 PM
On 2004-04-08 14:21, Kef wrote:
http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_lol.gif
The chain sawd/red sword in Skyly ?
yeah, but I was kidding, I found 46 Chain Sawds so far and only 7 Red Swords, which has a better drop rate.
That may have been it, it may not have, I forget the exact post. But you have a few times, and I remember Sou yelled at you for it. http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_razz.gif



But when 3+ people do testing for at least 12 hours each, then that gives some chance it is true, and defeats the idea that it is 100% wrong
Not to me, far from it.
Why not? If a small group of people found one thing, it may be supported by several other people. Some people may not have the same experiances, but if enough do, then there may be some truth to it.



I'd just rather not give people false hopes, let alone tell them to hunt at specific times when NOTHING can prove it right.

Some people might want to do some research (I can't), but let's not mislead "regular" players into something that is so likely to be untrue.

Remember how lazy ST is.

How is it false if there is even a remote chance of it being right (there may be coding that supports it; because nothing about rare enemy occurance we know came from the code; even the 1/512 was an estimate)?

I could try sometime soon (week after next most likely).

If ST programmed 2 weapons to be based on time, it wouldn't take an incredible amount of time to put in a few times that may raise the chance of rare enemies.

Hrith
Apr 8, 2004, 04:37 PM
On 2004-04-08 14:31, Ketchup345 wrote:

But when 3+ people do testing for at least 12 hours each, then that gives some chance it is true, and defeats the idea that it is 100% wrong
Not to me, far from it.
Why not? If a small group of people found one thing, it may be supported by several other people. Some people may not have the same experiances, but if enough do, then there may be some truth to it.[/quote]
Simply because 3, or even 100 people would not be enough for me to believe it one second.


If ST programmed 2 weapons to be based on time, it wouldn't take an incredible amount of time to put in a few times that may raise the chance of rare enemies.
If it did alter the odds of getting a rare monster, it could by NO MEAN alter the drops from any monster, rare or not, since when Sou dug up the game, she found out that that weapon drops at a 1/28808 rate, not 1/23000 now and 1/30000 then.

Kinda buries the BT even more, IMO.

Rainbowlemon
Apr 8, 2004, 05:14 PM
I'm for the BT theory. I'm not one for playing at a particular time, when I play, i play, and I still feel that at certain times more rare enemies are found than others. I do, however, believe that the beat time does not effect the drop rate, because although my rare enemies seem to appear at certain times, there seems to be no correlation between their occurence and them dropping an item.

Just my two cents.

~ Antimony

Ketchup345
Apr 8, 2004, 05:26 PM
On 2004-04-08 14:37, Kef wrote:
If it did alter the odds of getting a rare monster, it could by NO MEAN alter the drops from any monster, rare or not, since when Sou dug up the game, she found out that that weapon drops at a 1/28808 rate, not 1/23000 now and 1/30000 then.

Kinda buries the BT even more, IMO.


I agree, the chance of a drop doesn't change. But the rare enemy chance and rare drop data are not necessarily the same in where/how they are coded.

Zelendria_Ru
Apr 9, 2004, 11:44 AM
Heh...this is what I meant Kef...talking about the possiblilty that it IS viable...

I only have 1 thing to say...

If you (and by that I mean EVERYONE that plays PSO online or off) want to...

1)Completely Dispprove OR
2)Prove BTT once and for all

Do the community a favor...RECORD your beat times.

There is a totally simple format.

Monster/Rare Item
Location
Section ID
Beat Time

Just write it down...you don't even have to post it to the site...but patterns appear. Regardless of any factual or applicable use, its FUN! I totally disagree that it takes away from the game at all...in fact, I think it makes things exciting again. I know that I always get a little rushed, anxious even, when that "Hot Beat" is coming up.

Thank you all for your words and hard work/diligence in this study...I for one find that the attention given to this subject can pave the way to a new understanding of the nature of PSO's "randomness"

Silver_Wyrm
Apr 9, 2004, 11:32 PM
Why not? If a small group of people found one thing, it may be supported by several other people. Some people may not have the same experiances, but if enough do, then there may be some truth to it.


You can find a hundred people who found a rare on *enter beat here* but you will also find hundreds that didn't. If thousands of people are playing at a time, obviously some may find things at the same time.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Silver_Wyrm on 2004-04-11 17:18 ]</font>

Deus-Irae
Apr 10, 2004, 02:46 AM
On 2004-04-09 09:44, Zelendria_Ru wrote:
Do the community a favor...RECORD your beat times.

There is a totally simple format.

Monster/Rare Item
Location
Section ID
Beat Time

Just write it down...you don't even have to post it to the site...but patterns appear. Regardless of any factual or applicable use, its FUN! I totally disagree that it takes away from the game at all...in fact, I think it makes things exciting again. I know that I always get a little rushed, anxious even, when that "Hot Beat" is coming up.


that "Hot Beat" is the problem with the theory.

why feel rushed? why not just set your gamecube's clock for the same time everytime you play? that way you can get any rare monster you want everytime!

thats the problem, if it were as easy as playing at the right beat time, you could just adjust your clock to the desired time.

there is 0 proof to support the theory. it never really made sense anyways.

Hrith
Apr 10, 2004, 08:38 AM
Amen to Sylver_Wyrm and Deus.

Zelendria_Ru
Apr 10, 2004, 07:59 PM
I do get any rare monster I want at any time I want...

2 days time...~3 hours playing

2 pouilly slimes, 0 Lavis cannon...so far.
2 Mil lilys, 2x demo comet

and I don't set my clock back, I just know when to start piping.

PaleKid15
Apr 11, 2004, 04:55 PM
Kef, you might as well just give up. You could have a hand-written letter from the creators of the game stating thatthe BTT is wrong and have all of them sign it, and people still wouldn't listen.

People only need to be smart enough to listen to those who are more informed and right, the BTTers are not.

I can't really say any more than I did before. If the BTT was correct, the sheer number of calculations that the game would have to go through ALL THE TIME, would make it impossible to be played on anything but a PC/X-box, or something with ALOT of memory. The endless number of formula's that would be necessary would fill a GC disk. Beats were only created as an international time system to avoid confusion online. If beats made an impact on rare enemy sightings, alot more people would have noticed and exploited it. Not to mention that the AR people would have noticed and made a code to alter the formula to make all enemies rare if you wanted.

lain2k3
Apr 11, 2004, 07:28 PM
On 2004-04-11 14:55, PaleKid15 wrote:
Kef, you might as well just give up. You could have a hand-written letter from the creators of the game stating thatthe BTT is wrong and have all of them sign it, and people still wouldn't listen.


http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_lol.gif damn straight, i'm staying out of this shit. http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_lol.gif

Evil_Althena8
Apr 11, 2004, 09:40 PM
I want to believe the beat theory may be true, but I'm not sure. My friend started documenting the exact beat whenever he found a rare item. When he found his God/Battle, he wrote down the beat. He then re-programmed the Xbox's time to get the exact same beat again and killed the same Hidelt, and it dropped a photon drop. I can't say if it was pure coincidence, but the chances of that happening are like 0.1% or something like that.

In contradiction, how can beat time affect enemy drops when there is a programmed drop rate at any given time? Well, I believe this topic may never end...

Nintenter
Apr 15, 2004, 07:49 PM
Why not just let everyone believe what they want? If they believe in the BTT, more power to them. I dont see why you must inforce people to agree that it is a false theory.

Just my noobish 2 cents. http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_smile.gif

iamfanboy
Apr 16, 2004, 01:54 AM
How does a guy get 3 Add/slots in less than three beats?

and then go back during the same beat time and get two more?

Ruins ~ Ultimate with a yellowboze chara at 640-645 beat time, running through one of the missions (uh... the one where you're getting the weapon data while whatserface uses a Red Scorpio), I nailed five Add/Slots (1/1463 chance for EACH, according to Housoka.com), just through coincidence?

Okay, maybe it is just coincidence. I've gotten a lot of oddball things. Two Mil Lilies in one pipe? Delsaber's Right Hand on normal?

I know when I look at the rarity chance and it says, 1/903 or 1/512, that's EXACTLY what it means. It rolls the dice fresh for each new monster drop and each new monster appearance, and dice come up weird sometimes.

...but it's that Add/Slot incident that leaves me wondering... maybe there's more to this than meets the eye.

DezoPenguin
Apr 16, 2004, 07:48 AM
On 2004-04-15 17:49, Nintenter wrote:
Why not just let everyone believe what they want? If they believe in the BTT, more power to them. I dont see why you must inforce people to agree that it is a false theory.

Just my noobish 2 cents. http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_smile.gif



Because lies are bad things?

(Actually, I think it's because people who spend the time and effort to come to a gaming website and post hundreds of times take their games way too seriously. But that's a different theory.)

I don't know about anyone else, but watching a bunch of people believe something that's false really bugs me. It's the same reaction I get when I hear about people who believe the earth was flat, people being kidnapped by UFOs, that there was a second gunman on the grassy knoll, and way too much stuff to do with assorted religions.

It further annoys me because PSO World is supposed to be a forum for information about PSO--a site for the exchange of valuable information to help visitors come up with answers to their questions and make them the better players that they want to be. Instead, the new player comes here and is told by several people that this "beat time theory" exists--despite the fact that the people who have looked at the code have never found any evidence of it.

Moreover, all the "evidence" in favor of the BTT is anecdotal--people saying "this happened to me" and "that happened to me." Anecdotal evidence is the worst kind in the world. Moreover, it also happens to be one of the "symptoms" of hoaxes (ever notice how ads for various products include several testimonials from people who've supposedly used the product?), and on a statistical level those experiences are both explainable as anomalies and insignificant in sample size. If you want to prove the BTT by experimentation, what's needed are carefully documented tests involving statistically significant sample sizes, which with the percentages involved here are up in the hundreds of thousands of tests--at least--at each beat.

(Another math-heavy aside. The assumed percentage of rare monster appearance, based upon testimony from those who have examined the code, is 1/512. Let's say you pipe for exactly 512 rare monsters at each beat--a total of 512,000 monsters--to test out whether certain beats have more appearances than others. But statistically, that's the same as rolling a normal six-sided die only 6 times at each beat to see if a 1 shows up more often! Each beat lasts only 1.44 minutes, after all, which is enough time for me to do 7 pipes at my best speed. That's, say 63 Lilies per day per beat. That means ten days of constant testing will give me only 630 lilies per beat...the statistical equivalent of rolling a die 7.38 times, which is statistically meaningless! This is why anecdotal evidence is basically irrelevant.)

(And just for the record, "there's no physical evidence" may not disprove the existence of God. By the very way people have defined God, He/She/It is beyond the laws of nature. The Beat Time Theory isn't metaphysics, it's computer code. If it isn't in the code, it just isn't.)

(Also for the record, since I'm not a competent hacker and have not personally looked at the code, I'm taking the "those who have looked at the code haven't found evidence" on faith. If Sounomi, for example, comes into this thread and says, "Actually, the BTT is very possible given what we've seen in the code" then I'll stop arguing the point.)

Okay...enough asides. My last point is, when somebody makes a post like the one I've just made, someone will inevitably make a responsive post along the lines of "Well, I don't care what you say; I'll continue to believe in the beat time theory!" Usually they won't correctly use the semicolon, but that's a different rant. And I have to ask myself...

When did a fragging theory about how a video game system works become an article of faith?! Forget the fact that it's just stupid to believe in things that aren't true (if you don't believe in gravity, to use a ridiculously exaggerated example, you're going to be in for a nasty awakening when you step off a bridge). What I don't get is where the passion for the beat time theory comes from*? Why do people defend it without hard evidence but with the same kind of desperate faith that, when channeled into different arenas, leads to burning books and suicide bomb attacks (and if you don't believe it's the same kind of reaction, just read some of the obscenity-filled pro-BTT rants)? That just weirds me out!

*other than the psychological human need to exert control over our environment, of course. I understand that part--same reason people consult fortunetellers, don't walk under ladders, and toss salt over their shoulders.




<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: DezoPenguin on 2004-04-16 11:32 ]</font>