PIPE TRICK LOGIC

[Xero_Silvera]

Okay, i made this thread because i don't see something every else seems to.
Let's say youre piping for an al rappys and you start piping in a room with 8 rag rappys. Say on whatever pipe you come back down on, there is an Al rappy. Now lets say youre piping in a totally different area for al rappys in a room with only ONE rag rappy. Why is there more of a chance to get an al rappy in the room with more rag rappys then the room with only one? Each rappy has a # chance to be a rare counterpart, but that doesnt INCREASE your chances of finding the rare counterpart, it just allows you the opertunity to get more than one rare counterpart in the same room. (which VERY VERY seldomly ever happens)
My point is, if you don't care about gettin more then 1 rare monster, then you should technically be able to pipe anywhere there is just one or two of that monster, it saves trouble of going to certain spots to pipe. plz post back, and just a reminder, im only 15 http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_razz.gif i havnt taken college level ratio classes and whatnot..
-xero

[VioletSkye]

Thats completely incorrect. If the chance to get a rare enemy is 1/512 and you have 8 rappies in a room, you increase your chances of having one of those rappies be an Al Rappy 7 times. The fact that there are more rappies won't affect the rate of a rare enemy appearance, but it offers you more chances for one because you have 8 different rappies that have the possibility of being rare.

[Xero_Silvera]

So from what youre saying, if the room was 1 rag rappy, the chance would be 1/512 and the room with 8 rag rappys would be 8/512? That kinda still doesnt make sense to me.. i think of it as a room full of 1/512.. which would be 1/512,1/512,1/512,1/512,1/512,1/152,1/512,1/512... for each one has the same chance, and the total amount doesnt increase your chances, it would remain the same. It would only affect you bein able to get more then 1 rare mob in that room (if you were piping more then one of that monster)
-xero

[VioletSkye]

Not sure how to explain it any more clearly, other than to say that your chances of encountering a rare enemy are greater if you have more of that enemy. Yes, each of the 8 rappies will still have 1/512 chance to be rare, but you have 8 different 1/512 chances going on at the same time. Don't believe me, test it yourself and start piping 1 rappy until you get a rare. Do that a few times and then pipe in a room with more rappies and compare the amount of time you spent.

Lets say that theoretically, that there was a room will 10000 rappies. I can pretty much guarantee you that with each pipe you will find at least a few Al rappies every time. And why is that? Because you had more rappies which means more chances for a rare version.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: VioletSkye on 2004-04-04 19:55 ]</font>

[metatime]

I can't imagine you doing well in statistics. =P

Anyways, if u add all the 1/512, then yes, it will be 8/512.

[Xero_Silvera]

I understand what youre sayin vs, but i dont get why my theory is wrong either.. lol
Pipin with one 1/512 and eight 1/512's doesnt make 8/512, it makes eight seperate 1/512s scince not all are guaranteed to be rare.. i think it made sense.. ?
-xero

[VioletSkye]

But what do you think is quicker, having 1 1/512 chances or having 8 1/512 chances? Obviously having more possible instances of that occurance happening improves your chances. Its a mathematical fact, so unless you have some new revolutionarty thesis on numerical statistics, you can't fight logical, scientific proof. http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_smile.gif


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: VioletSkye on 2004-04-04 20:03 ]</font>

[Xero_Silvera]

*grumble*
lol fine.. i see im probly wrong, but still you havnt proven me wrong! so i remain to pipe on 2 hidelts instead of the 3 4 or 5 i can get in FoS..
=
-xero

[VioletSkye]

On 2004-04-04 20:04, Xero_Silvera wrote:
*grumble*
lol fine.. i see im probly wrong, but still you havnt proven me wrong! so i remain to pipe on 2 hidelts instead of the 3 4 or 5 i can get in FoS..
=
-xero


i did prove you wrong, you just didn't grasp it (there is a difference lol.) Anyway if you would rather pipe with fewer enemies than I guess I can only say "whatever floats your boat." http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_razz.gif



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: VioletSkye on 2004-04-04 20:06 ]</font>

[Xero_Silvera]

math isnt my thing, i barely grasp algebra..
..
im sad.
-xero

[Rainbowlemon]

If there is one Rappy, the chances for finding an Al/Pal are, lets say, 1 in 512 Rappies. This translates as 1/512. If there are 8 Rappies, the chances are that in 512 you will find 8 times as many Al/Pal Rappies, which translates as 8/512.

Using simple maths, 8/512 can be cancelled down to 1/64.

Now tell me, if two people were piping for an Al Rappy, when one of them had a 1/512 chance and one had a 1/64 chance, who is most likely going to find it quicker?

By saying you are going to pipe 2 Torrs instead of four it seems you are just cutting your nose off to spite your face, so....http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_razz.gif

[Polar]

On 2004-04-05 08:55, Antimony wrote:
If there is one Rappy, the chances for finding an Al/Pal are, lets say, 1 in 512 Rappies. This translates as 1/512. If there are 8 Rappies, the chances are that in 512 you will find 8 times as many Al/Pal Rappies, which translates as 8/512.

Using simple maths, 8/512 can be cancelled down to 1/64.

Now tell me, if two people were piping for an Al Rappy, when one of them had a 1/512 chance and one had a 1/64 chance, who is most likely going to find it quicker?

By saying you are going to pipe 2 Torrs instead of four it seems you are just cutting your nose off to spite your face, so....http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_razz.gif


Using slightly LESS simple maths...
Chance of one rappy being rare = 1/512
Chance of one rappy NOT being rare = 511/512
Chance of all 8 not being rare = (511/512)^8
= 0.984
Chance of at least one rare rappy = 0.0155
= 1/64.5
Nearly right, Antimony... but fractional odds don't just add up

ANYway, now I feel stupid, because there's so little difference.
But think of this... 512 rappies "would" mean a 512/512 chance of a rare, = 1/1 = every time. not true.

[DezoPenguin]

On 2004-04-05 09:34, Polar wrote:
Using slightly LESS simple maths...
Chance of one rappy being rare = 1/512
Chance of one rappy NOT being rare = 511/512
Chance of all 8 not being rare = (511/512)^8
= 0.984
Chance of at least one rare rappy = 0.0155
= 1/64.5
Nearly right, Antimony... but fractional odds don't just add up

ANYway, now I feel stupid, because there's so little difference.
But think of this... 512 rappies "would" mean a 512/512 chance of a rare, = 1/1 = every time. not true.



Heh...this time you got there first, Polar. Dead right, of course. ^_^

And to give a simple analogy to the original poster...

Grab a bunch of dice. What's your chance of rolling a 1? It's 1 in 6 (presuming you're using a normal six-sided die and not a funky roleplaying game die with a different number of sides) for a roll. Now, are you more likely to get a "1" on a single roll, or by rolling a bunch of dice at once? The latter, of course.

It is correct, of course, that whether you pipe for 1 or 8 rappies (or as I do, 7, because I'm too lazy to change the camera ^_^) each individual rappy has a 1/512 chance of being a rare. But it's 1/512 per rappy, not 1/512 per [i]pipe[/1].

[TatuPreb119]

Its just like rolling dice if you roll one die at a time then you could get a six(not impossible)But the more you roll at the same time would of course increase your chances

[NiNeTeeN69]

On 2004-04-04 20:04, Xero_Silvera wrote:
*grumble*
lol fine.. i see im probly wrong, but still you havnt proven me wrong! so i remain to pipe on 2 hidelts instead of the 3 4 or 5 i can get in FoS..
=
-xero



Dont worry man im with you on this one, im the guy who found a love rappy 3 times, in under 10 pipes,piping with only 2 rappies.iv also done this more times than i can count with Nar lily.

[Scales_of_Air]

On 2004-04-05 21:12, TatuPreb119 wrote:
Its just like rolling dice if you roll one die at a time then you could get a six(not impossible)But the more you roll at the same time would of course increase your chances

I like that version of it - the most simplistic way to get the idea across. Just like the quote, the more dice you have the better chances of getting a certain number on one of them. This applies in the same exact way with the Rappies. Of course everyone here put into mathematical terms rather than a good comparison, but I won't argue that, both are correct, just conveyed in different ways. By the way Xero, Kurama is awesome!



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Scales_of_Air on 2004-04-06 14:18 ]</font>