multi-rare enemies

[dark_agenda]

I was just curious how many people have ever seen multiple rare enemies? I have seen two Nar Lillies at one time, a while back while I was piping for god/hp's.

[EJ]

i seen nar lily in one room and then a hildeblue in the other room in BB. In Ep1 and 2 I only seen two pal rappy in the same room

[Ahya]

This morning at about 4:00 am Eastern time I saw 2 Mil Lillies in the Temple, but only 1 Aura Feild obtained.. 2 slots too http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_smile.gif but level to low http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_frown.gif

[Eihwaz]

No, but I have gotten multiple Mils and Hildetorrs within moments of each other. IE, one pipe, rare enemy, few pipes later, another one.

The Mils were Purplenum Caves variety; they didn't drop anything. >_>;

[Vielka]

im ultimate cave runs, ive ran into a room with 2 mil lilies... i got a lovely monomate and a telepipe.. gg pso

[RadiantLegend]

Not exactly in the same room but one in each run 6 times on a row.

<.< of course it had to be normal ep1

[Sitka]

On a similar note, has anyone ever taken a screen shot of a FAT PAL RAPPY?

That would be awesome.

[lain2k3]

Ive seen 2 fat pal rappies, but no screen shots here http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_biggrin.gifispprove:

I remember a while back C>DOS>RUN took a screenshot of his hucassy next to a fat love rappy.

that was insane.

[Butoden]

Oh yeah. I remember that screen.
I haven't seen multiple rare enemies yet. It'll be funny when it does happen, and I'll be UBER lucky when it does...on Ultimate! http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_smile.gif

[cHaOsMaZtA]

Does anyone know the likelihood of that happening?? You know, the probability? The way i did it was like this: 1/512*1/512 divided by (however many normal counterparts are in the room).

I don't know if thats right.

[Butoden]

I thought it was just 1/512, for instance, when there's like 7 Rappies, it's 7/512...

[cHaOsMaZtA]

no, i want to know the probability of 2 rare enemies coming down at the same time.

[Rainbowlemon]

(1/512) squared. So 1/262,144

[Vielka]

On 2004-06-21 13:48, Antimony wrote:
(1/512) squared. So 1/262,144



thats probably why not many of us have seen it

[lain2k3]

The actual rare enemy appearance rate is closer to 400 than 512, buts still freakishley rare for a double appearance

[PJ]

Gah. I haven't seen 2 Rare enemies in a row.

Closet I have had was when I was piping for Hildetorr's (Got FLight Cutter off my first one ^_^), then when I was doing the run to complete the level, the first enemy was a Love Rappy (Also dropped me Electro Frame ^_^) That was my luckiest time. Ever. Since msot of the time I need multiple rare enemies for those 50% chance ones @_@

[cHaOsMaZtA]

On 2004-06-21 13:48, Antimony wrote:
(1/512) squared. So 1/262,144



But wouldn't the number of normal counterparts in the room effect that?

[Hrith]

On 2004-06-21 07:46, Sitka wrote:
On a similar note, has anyone ever taken a screen shot of a FAT PAL RAPPY?

That would be awesome.
http://romain.bernardi.free.fr/palking.jpg

[dark_agenda]

OMG Kef, that's the most intimidating bird I've ever met. LoL, I hope you had your roadside bar-b-que'r ready!

[dark_agenda]

On 2004-06-21 15:41, cHaOsMaZtA wrote:


On 2004-06-21 13:48, Antimony wrote:
(1/512) squared. So 1/262,144



But wouldn't the number of normal counterparts in the room effect that?



No, the number of counterparts does not effect it. Because we're just shooting for 2 rare enemies here. If you wanted to get the odds of finding 5 rare enemies perhaps, it would be 1/512 ^ 5 or 1/35184372088832... not very good odds http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_frown.gif

[cHaOsMaZtA]

so if i wanted to find 2 pal rappies at once, i would have just as good odds piping in a room with 2 rappies than if i piped in a room with 7?? that doesn't make sense

[frieddonuts]

Okay, I got some time to kill. Here we go, this is for you cHaOsMaZtA, and anyone else who cares...

Let p = the probability of a rappy being a pal rappy.

C(n,r) is "n choose r" = n!/((n-r)!r!)

If the probability of any rappy being a pal rappy is independent of all other rappies, then....

The odds of there being exactly r pal rappies in a group of n rappies is

C(n,r)*((1-p)^(n-r))*(p^r)

Breaking that formula down...

C(n,r)

Out of n rappies, choose r of them to be pal rappies.

(1-p)^(n-r)

The odds that a rappy is a regular rappy is 1 minus p. There are n minus r regular rappies, so you take 1 minus p and raise it the n minus r power.

p^r

The odds that a rappy is a pal rappy is p. There are r pal rappies, so you take p and raise it to the r power.

Multiplying those together gives you the formula. This is called a Binomial Distribution.

So the odds of finding exactly 0 pal rappies in a group of 7 rappies is...

C(7,0)*((511/512)^7)*(1/512)^0 =

1 * (511/512)^7 * 1 = (511/512)^7 = .986407973

Odds of getting exactly 1 out of 7 is....

C(7,1)*((511/512)^6)*(1/512)^1 =

7 * (511/512)^6 * 1/512 = .013512438

Odds of getting exactly 2 out of 7 is....

C(7,2)*((511/512)^5)*(1/512)^2 =

21 * (511/512)^5 * (1/512)^2 = .000079329

Typically, you don't care about the odds of getting exactly r pal rappies, but rather you want the odds of getting at least r pal rappies. To figure that, you start with 1 and subtract as follows...

The odds of getting at least 1 pal rappy is...

1 - odds of getting exactly 0 pal rappies =

1 - .986407973 = .013592027

The odds of getting at least 2 pal rappies is...

1 - odds of exactly 0 - odds of exactly 1 =

1 - .986407973 - .013512438 = .000079589

The odds of getting at least 3 pal rappies is...

1 - odds of exactly 0 - odds of exactly 1 - odds of exactly 2 =

1 - .986407973 - .013512438 - .000079329 = .000000259

Had to go 9 digits in order to get that last one in there. You might notice that the "exact" odds and the "at least" odds are very close to each other. This is because our p=1/512 is so small to begin with. A more reasonable probability would result in a noticable difference between the "exact" and "at least" odds.

So anyway, the odds of getting 2 pal rappies out of 7 is about 1/12500 give or take.

1/262144 would be the odds of getting 2 out of 2.

Any questions?

[cHaOsMaZtA]

I didn't really understand that, as i've only completed algebra 1 and geometry (im in 10th grade, or will be when summer's over). granted, math is my best subject, but that went way over my head. but as long as it proves me right, that's cool. i knew that the number of normal counterparts of a rare enemy would have a huge effect of the probability of 2 or more of that rare enemy appearing at once.

Nice job, frieddonuts http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: cHaOsMaZtA on 2004-06-21 20:32 ]</font>

[SLON]

Whatever the odds were, I was lucky enough to find 2 Pal Rappies stood next to each other on 'Fake in Yellow'. One dropped a rare, the other didn't. The rare had no % ! Was I really that lucky???

[Vielka]

im impressed.. binomial distribution, intresting thing isnt it.

[Rainbowlemon]

On 2004-06-21 19:40, frieddonuts wrote:
Okay, I got some time to kill.


Hehe, no kidding >.<

I would try and check it, but I really hate Binomials...ask me to expand from powers, I'll be happy http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_smile.gif

[Hrith]

On 2004-06-21 17:10, dark_agenda wrote:
OMG Kef, that's the most intimidating bird I've ever met. LoL, I hope you had your roadside bar-b-que'r ready!
Amani Ame is VulpesMundi's FOmarl, I never met a King Pal Rappy, I did meet a King Love Rappy, but I did not know how to upload snapshots back then =/

I also once found 2 Mil Lilies in Viridia Temple, only one dropped Standstill Shield.

[lain2k3]

O_o

Ive done something kef hasn't...

Ive seen 2 King pal rappies.

wow.

**moves on**

[PaperNapkin]

Gah I'm not very lucky. One time I found two Nar Lily's right next to each other in caves and they both dropped meseta.

[AlbinoRando]

ive seen 3 al rappies at one time on very hard mode in the second room of the FiY quest. One dropped my Elysion.

[Naclosagc]

I saw 2 mils while piping for something, I don't remember. My son and I saw it, and didn't think til later to snap a picture. I will next time (if there is one).

[kizzlenizzle4]

i found 2 hildeblues in the temple but it was on normal mode so i got 2 dragon hp's
- -
edit: do not bump a topic that is past page 2!
it means that people are no longer interested in it - let it die!


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Dhylec on 2004-08-03 03:48 ]</font>

[digigram]

i'll say it before someone else does. don't reply to old threads..

topic revival/bumping = trouble.

or so they say

[RedSchwar]

In all my days I've never seen two rare enemies in the same wave, but I have seen 2 in the same room, in separate waves.