GC-Item: LAVIS HUNT: Drop Rates vs Enemy Count

[Tareek]

Hi there,
Ive been huntig a lavis on my lvl 120 redria hunewearl for the better of the last two weeks. The only effect being that I am massively bored of piping and addicting food runs. So I started thinking, whether or not redria really is the best place to search.
Fact is AF has a decent amount of slimes and each one of them (and its spawns) has a (1/351 was it?) chance to be a red one which the also has a certan chance (1/21) to drop the lavis. I dont really have any idea how to calculate how big the chance is in the end, but if you simply multiply both propabilities you get 7371 (I think that number should be higher, but I have no clue about math. maybe someone could calculate the exact numbers?!?) which would be of 1/4 of purplenums drop rate for tollaw and tollaw is a lot easier to meet.
What do you guys think, are we searching the wrong end?

[AngelAlys]

I used to have a Purplenum character and I thought that I would go in search of the elusive Lavis. But I went through thousands and thousands of Tollaw and not once to any of them drop me a lovely shiney red box.

I am currently involved in a court case to sue them, so i cant really discuss it any further http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif

[Tareek]

On 2004-07-19 02:44, AngelAlys wrote:
I used to have a Purplenum character and I thought that I would go in search of the elusive Lavis. But I went through thousands and thousands of Tollaw and not once to any of them drop me a lovely shiney red box.

I am currently involved in a court case to sue them, so i cant really discuss it any further http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif



Hmmm... so you think legal actions might produce a lavis faster? I dont like lawyers, I'll stick with hunting! http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_smile.gif

[Butoden]

On 2004-07-19 02:35, Tareek wrote:
Hi there,
Fact is AF has a decent amount of slimes and each one of them (and its spawns) has a (1/351 was it?) chance to be a red one which the also has a certan chance (1/21) to drop the lavis.
1/512 for a Rare Monster and 1/21 for Lavis drop yes, so it's still pretty difficult! http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/anime1.gif

[Gjl]

On 2004-07-19 02:53, Tareek wrote:


On 2004-07-19 02:44, AngelAlys wrote:
I used to have a Purplenum character and I thought that I would go in search of the elusive Lavis. But I went through thousands and thousands of Tollaw and not once to any of them drop me a lovely shiney red box.

I am currently involved in a court case to sue them, so i cant really discuss it any further http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif



Hmmm... so you think legal actions might produce a lavis faster? I dont like lawyers, I'll stick with hunting! http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_smile.gif



I prefer Purplenum over Redria, and I hate piping so I'd suggest you make a Purplenum for the Lavis. Do the Heat Sword (58 Tollaws - 497 runs needed on average) quest online or the forest section of Soul of a Blacksmith (24 Tollaws - 1200 runs needed on average) offline - those two quests have the most Tollaws (they're also good for EXP since you can kill the Dragon at the end). Soul of a Blacksmith might be too slow, it's probably better to pipe if you're offline only. Piping is the fastest way to get the item, but I'd rather do quest runs for exp, other items and fun.

[Tareek]

[/quote]

I prefer Purplenum over Redria, and I hate piping so I'd suggest you make a Purplenum for the Lavis. Do the Heat Sword (58 Tollaws - 497 runs needed on average) quest online or the forest section of Soul of a Blacksmith (24 Tollaws - 1200 runs needed on average) offline - those two quests have the most Tollaws (they're also good for EXP since you can kill the Dragon at the end). Soul of a Blacksmith might be too slow, it's probably better to pipe if you're offline only. Piping is the fastest way to get the item, but I'd rather do quest runs for exp, other items and fun.

[/quote]
That's more my style too.
I was only concerned whether searching in Purplenum was a complete waste of time.

[hfnico]

if you want math... ;o

1/512*1/21=
1/10752 for the lavis with slimes.

tollaws drop rate is 30%*1/28807=
1/96023 for the lavis with tollaws.

Math says >> Go for the slimes. ;o

hope that helps.

[FattyMcGee]

30%? you do know the chance for no item to drop is already factored in to the 1/28807 drop rate, right?

--fatty

[Tareek]

On 2004-07-19 03:42, hfnico wrote:
if you want math... ;o

1/512*1/21=
1/10752 for the lavis with slimes.

tollaws drop rate is 30%*1/28807=
1/96023 for the lavis with tollaws.

Math says >> Go for the slimes. ;o

hope that helps.



THX, that was what i was looking for. So it's almost 10 times harder to find it on Purplenum.
Well, Ill just search on both! http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_wink.gif

[Gjl]

On 2004-07-19 03:55, Tareek wrote:


On 2004-07-19 03:42, hfnico wrote:
if you want math... ;o

1/512*1/21=
1/10752 for the lavis with slimes.

tollaws drop rate is 30%*1/28807=
1/96023 for the lavis with tollaws.

Math says >> Go for the slimes. ;o

hope that helps.



THX, that was what i was looking for. So it's almost 10 times harder to find it on Purplenum.
Well, Ill just search on both! http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_wink.gif



No, he's wrong. The chance is 1/28807 since the 30% chance to drop has already been calculated. Therefore what he said about the drop rate being 1/96203 is wrong. Therefore it's 2 or 3 times more likely to get it off slimes, not 9 times. Piping for slimes is a pain in the ass, but you could get the weapon within 20 hours perhaps.

[hfnico]

when you kill a tollaw you have 30% chances it drops something, then if he wants to drop something you have 1/28807 chance it drops a lavis and 28806/28807 chance it drops crap or pd.
So, tollaw>> 30%*1/28807=1/96023 for the lavis with tollaws.

blue slime have 1/512 chance to be a red one,
when you kill a red slime you have 100% chance it drops something, then you have 1/21 chance it drops a lavis and 20/21 chance it drops crap or pd.
So, red slimes>> 100%*1/21=
1/21 for the lavis with red slimes.
and blue slimes in theory and math>> 1/512*1/21*100%=1/10752 chances for the lavis with blue slimes(average and theory cos' blue ones don't drop lavis but can be red ones.)

Conclusion:
1/10752 > 1/96023
slimes'lavis drop far easier than tollaws'lavis drop.

Tollaws are bitches anyway IMO

[Ketchup345]

The major drop charts already factor in the drop anything rate of enemies.

You do not need to divide by the drop anything % to find the true drop rate, as it is already done for you.

So it is 1/~10,000 > 1/~28,000 (not 1/96,000).



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Ketchup345 on 2004-07-19 06:23 ]</font>

[jspacemunkey]

again, the tollaw's 30% drop rate is already figured into the 1/28807 chance to drop lavis. the drop rate for lavis cannon from a purplenum tollaw is 1/28807, period. regardless, tollaws are not the enemy to hunt for unless you want the search to take many, many more weeks. (EDIT: and ketchup beat me on this part http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif)

tareek -- as for where to look...i would recommend staying with redria. i've piped 38 red slimes in the past five or six days and i've picked up one lavis cannon (on my fifth slime). i'm trying to find three lavis cannons total so i have a ways to go. piping is not the most entertaining thing, but believe me that your chances are better with redria. you are splitting slimes, right? perhaps a silly question but i want to make sure because you were talking about the slimes having a chance to become red when they "spawn". you must split the slimes if you're piping for a red slime or your chances are shot.

how many slimes have you killed? or have you not seen any? the rare enemy appearance rate is either 1/512 (most widely accepted) or 1/400, but remember that you may find red slimes much faster than that. (and i often do.) i would not give up on redria.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: jspacemunkey on 2004-07-19 06:23 ]</font>

[heyf00L]

No one has said it yet so I'll say it. The drop-anything rates are already factored into the numbers. http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_razz.gif

Anyway you should do what I do and just do 1/2 redria TTF runs. You get good experience (about the same as HS but in 1/3 the time) and it's still a way more likely way to get Lavis than Purplenum.

[Jarek]

*sigh*
I'll never forget losing a lavis from that tollaw after only 1 run... http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_frown.gif
With my experience, a tollaw lavis took so much less time to get, but that's just because I was a lucky bish (but not lucky enough to get it).

Piping. Isn't. Fun. But. It. Can. Get. You. Rares. The. Fastest.

[Quo]

Imagine it like this:

When you kill an enemy, the game rolls a die (singular of dice). When you defeat a tollaw, the game rolls a 28,808 sided die. Only one of those sides will give you the lavis cannon. When you kill a red slime, the game rolls a 22 sided die and only one of those sides will give you the lavis cannon. 1/22 > 1/28,808 by far. Even if you think tollaws are more common. Here's the deal. When you pipe, you only see the enemy you are piping. In this case you only see slimes. When you hunt, you see all different forms of enemies. In this case, the tollaws are dispersed amoung bartles and barbles and gulgi and Hides and stuff. Ergo, those 10 thousand slimes will come a lot faster than 28808 tollaws.

[Butoden]

Whatever, if you're at lv 160+ you probably already did tons of Caves runs and your bank is probably STUFFED with STUPID rares from the caves. You're probably tired of 'doing the more cave runs (or any other area) to get 1 weapon thing'.

Here is your solution: Pipe Slimes.
http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_smile.gif
I believe there's ONE spot at Caves where 2 Slimes spawn at the same time, it's in a Quest. Just look it up. So telepipe there and keep watching TV while the telepipe thing loads. You'll find the slime eventually, maybe even after three pipes, maybe after 3,000,000.
http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_smile.gif
Piping rox.

[Tareek]

On 2004-07-19 06:20, jspacemunkey wrote:
again, the tollaw's 30% drop rate is already figured into the 1/28807 chance to drop lavis. the drop rate for lavis cannon from a purplenum tollaw is 1/28807, period. regardless, tollaws are not the enemy to hunt for unless you want the search to take many, many more weeks. (EDIT: and ketchup beat me on this part http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif)

tareek -- as for where to look...i would recommend staying with redria. i've piped 38 red slimes in the past five or six days and i've picked up one lavis cannon (on my fifth slime). i'm trying to find three lavis cannons total so i have a ways to go. piping is not the most entertaining thing, but believe me that your chances are better with redria. you are splitting slimes, right? perhaps a silly question but i want to make sure because you were talking about the slimes having a chance to become red when they "spawn". you must split the slimes if you're piping for a red slime or your chances are shot.

how many slimes have you killed? or have you not seen any? the rare enemy appearance rate is either 1/512 (most widely accepted) or 1/400, but remember that you may find red slimes much faster than that. (and i often do.) i would not give up on redria.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: jspacemunkey on 2004-07-19 06:23 ]</font>

Well, I've been doing runs through Addicting food, and periodically piped in the two slime room for about 30 to 70 times in one go. And yes, I do split them with Rabarta (While making sure none of them dies). So, you see that I did my homework. And what for? NOT A SINGLE RED SLIME IN ALL THIS TIME!!!!!!!!
That was the reason for me to start this thread.
When you do Slime runs, you might see a Red one, but when you do Tollaws, you can be 100% sure that they are there.

The hunt had one good thing though, loads of mats and an ASUKA. http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_smile.gif That kinda cheered me up

[jspacemunkey]

i feel your pain. i have had a lot of trouble with red slimes tonight. funny thing though... i literally just picked up an asuka myself, which rocks. kinda weird coincidence. anyway, good luck to you. just be persistent. despite the fact that you can find tollaws more immediately the red slime is definitely the better enemy. again, i found my first lavis cannon after only five red slimes. it's not impossible that you'll get one quickly once those red slimes decide to show themselves.

one suggestion i have... if you're serious about piping red slimes i would highly recommend piping every slime you encounter. this is how i've been approaching my lavis hunt and it works really well. often the first slime you try to pipe is the hardest (and you should expect to pipe between 100 and 150 times before see a red slime, though it's often faster). however, in my experience once i see one red slime each successive blue slime spawns a red slime more rapidly. might be my imagination, but that's how it seems.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: jspacemunkey on 2004-07-19 23:44 ]</font>

[Tareek]

On 2004-07-19 23:39, jspacemunkey wrote:
i feel your pain. i have had a lot of trouble with red slimes tonight. funny thing though... i literally just picked up an asuka myself, which rocks. kinda weird coincidence. anyway, good luck to you. just be persistent. despite the fact that you can find tollaws more immediately the red slime is definitely the better enemy. again, i found my first lavis cannon after only five red slimes. it's not impossible that you'll get one quickly once those red slimes decide to show themselves.

one suggestion i have... if you're serious about piping red slimes i would highly recommend piping every slime you encounter. this is how i've been approaching my lavis hunt and it works really well. often the first slime you try to pipe is the hardest (and you should expect to pipe between 100 and 150 times before see a red slime, though it's often faster). however, in my experience once i see one red slime each successive blue slime spawns a red slime more rapidly. might be my imagination, but that's how it seems.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: jspacemunkey on 2004-07-19 23:44 ]</font>

THX M8
I just get bored so fast! http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_wink.gif
Maybe I'll just postpone my Lavis hunt and try to get a Psycho Wand, as Tareek is lvl 138 and is still running around with his Striker of Chao.
And then Ill just run, wherever I might find the most items that interest me. (Tend to find only the ones I dont really like though. Anti Android Rifle anyone? Bad weapon!)

[Gjl]

On 2004-07-20 00:04, Tareek wrote:


On 2004-07-19 23:39, jspacemunkey wrote:
i feel your pain. i have had a lot of trouble with red slimes tonight. funny thing though... i literally just picked up an asuka myself, which rocks. kinda weird coincidence. anyway, good luck to you. just be persistent. despite the fact that you can find tollaws more immediately the red slime is definitely the better enemy. again, i found my first lavis cannon after only five red slimes. it's not impossible that you'll get one quickly once those red slimes decide to show themselves.

one suggestion i have... if you're serious about piping red slimes i would highly recommend piping every slime you encounter. this is how i've been approaching my lavis hunt and it works really well. often the first slime you try to pipe is the hardest (and you should expect to pipe between 100 and 150 times before see a red slime, though it's often faster). however, in my experience once i see one red slime each successive blue slime spawns a red slime more rapidly. might be my imagination, but that's how it seems.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: jspacemunkey on 2004-07-19 23:44 ]</font>

THX M8
I just get bored so fast! http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_wink.gif
Maybe I'll just postpone my Lavis hunt and try to get a Psycho Wand, as Tareek is lvl 138 and is still running around with his Striker of Chao.
And then Ill just run, wherever I might find the most items that interest me. (Tend to find only the ones I dont really like though. Anti Android Rifle anyone? Bad weapon!)



Hahah! If you think piping slimes is boring, then piping MIls for the P Wand will be far far worse. 1/205 drop rate...

[Tareek]

[/quote]

Hahah! If you think piping slimes is boring, then piping MIls for the P Wand will be far far worse. 1/205 drop rate...

[/quote]

But at least I meet Mils from time to time, Slime and Torrs just wont show up. And, piping for Lilies is a lot faster, for you dont have to split them. http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_razz.gif

[jspacemunkey]

tareek -- a pwand? wow. that's an undertaking of gigantic proportions. hope you find one! i'm planning to pipe one myself but it will be the last item i pipe. i figure that, seeing as it will take so much time and effort, i should wait until i can tell myself "this is the last thing you'll ever pipe" if i start to get frustrated. http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif

[Butoden]

On 2004-07-20 04:11, Tareek wrote:


Hahah! If you think piping slimes is boring, then piping MIls for the P Wand will be far far worse. 1/205 drop rate...




But at least I meet Mils from time to time, Slime and Torrs just wont show up. And, piping for Lilies is a lot faster, for you dont have to split them. http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_razz.gif


Red Slimes are very difficult to pipe because the best spot you have only spawns 2 Slimes. And the splitting is a pain.

[Quo]

On 2004-07-20 11:56, Butoden wrote:

Red Slimes are very difficult to pipe because the best spot you have only spawns 2 Slimes. And the splitting is a pain.



Two slimes that become 8. That makes a HUGE difference.