The lie behind the drop rates. [Archive]

Caecilius

Jul 28, 2004, 08:26 AM

After five months of not posting here, having been given an assignment by a friend I decided to prove the so-called drop rates wrong, once and for fucking all. Therefore I would not be surprised if this topic is locked since the material has possibly been discussed during my absence (and the content is possibly heretical to those who believe in rare drop rates).

Off I go then, on my fool's quest to disprove the drop rates. Naturally I look for a so-called "easy drop". I am naturally talking about a Star Amplifier from a Hildetorr using my Pinkal RAcaseal. A 1/2 chance it'll drop, right? 50-50.
WRONG.
Ten Hildetorrs and nine wasted days later, I end up having lost more than I gained. My gain was a Dimate and two level 18 technique disks, one Foie and the other Zalure. Hoo-fucking-ray.
Obviously a misprint, I hear you say.
Get this; my next attempt was one of those Twin Chakrams, using my Oran FOmar. I kept a running total of my Tollaw kills, both offline and online with my good friend Superguppie. 1088 Tollaws and a further couple of weeks later, no lucky find. Then I find two of the things within twenty Tollaw kills of each other, and one had 45 Hit. Why am I telling you this? Simple. Having given the 45 Hit one to Superguppie I was a bit annoyed to learn that he wanted to find his own. That week he found his in a game with me, and I think he must have been through many times more Tollaws than me to get his one. 1/900 drop rate? 1 in about two thousand and something, more like.
My point? You want to know the point of this?
It's all random. Two Twin Chakrams within twenty Tollaw kills is not a fluke, people. It isn't bugs in the programming, or preprogrammed mathematical formulae, or BEAT times, or even lucky mosquito shit on my Gamecube (this one is true). It's all random, and it boils down to personl perseverance; something I evidently didn't have with my Pinkal Hildetorrs.
Next time you want to hunt for items, don't consult long lists of drop rates to find your lucky numbers. Just have two words superglued in the backs of your heads: RANDOM and PERSEVERANCE.

Brand me as a blasphemer if you like (just point that thing ABOVE the belt and let loose, should you fel the need) but just consider my view and give yours.

Flaming is welcome if you feel like you need to flame me for this. Just don't expect me to be civil in return...

Signed
"The Unknown" CC

Waddler

Jul 28, 2004, 08:33 AM

Tis called an Average.

Edit: Yes alot of it is luck but its there as a guide and eventully doing enough it
should average out.

[ This Message was edited by: Waddler on 2004-07-28 06:36 ]

Caecilius

Jul 28, 2004, 08:36 AM

BIASED average, my friend, for t'would be impossible to get data from every PSO gamer or to even do stratified sampling.

KAMIKAZI

Jul 28, 2004, 09:17 AM

OK listen im only just finished 9th grade and you seem to be very ignorant. Drop rates are the probability of the items being dropped the game does not have to listen to them its you luck that the drop rate didnt work like you wanted it to. IN math there is also a thing called a rare event the upper 5 percentile of a event not happening with in the suggested probablility for 1/2 it would be like 6+ of the monster for it to be a rare event of not getting the red box its just yer luck that you dont get anything dont flame ppl who just did work to try and help other hunters of PSO http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_razz.gif

GothicAngel

Jul 28, 2004, 09:22 AM

On 2004-07-28 07:17, KAMIKAZI wrote:
OK listen im only just finished 9th grade and you seem to be very ignorant. Drop rates are the probability of the items being dropped the game does not have to listen to them its you luck that the drop rate didnt work like you wanted it to. IN math there is also a thing called a rare event the upper 5 percentile of a event not happening with in the suggested probablility for 1/2 it would be like 6+ of the monster for it to be a rare event of not getting the red box its just yer luck that you dont get anything dont flame ppl who just did work to try and help other hunters of PSO http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_razz.gif

Punctuation is good, yes?

And it's called avearages. If you were to take the drops from every person on this board you would have numbers close to the accepted averages.

Eanae

Jul 28, 2004, 09:45 AM

How very wrong you are. How can you go and prove game data wrong? The drop rates are programmed right in the game data, which has been taken apart and looked at by a few people. No matter what you say isn't going to change the game data. You probaby just have crappy luck. Every rare enemy I've found with a 1/2 drop has dropped what I wanted. You can't say the game is wrong just because you're having a hissy fit over stuff you can't find. http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_nono.gif

BladeofDarkness

Jul 28, 2004, 11:32 AM

You think thats bad luck? How about 19 Pal Rappies for 1 Red Partisan, 15 Mils for 1 Windmill, 10 Mils for 1 Aura Field, 70+ runs for 1 Yasminkov 9000m, over 100 ruins runs and still no effing Spread Needle? It is indeed aggravating but that's how chances work, you might get a Milla off your first Tollaw and you might get a (insert 1/2 drop rare name here) after 50 (insert corresponding rare enemy). But the fact is the drop charts are accurate at telling the averages because the people who made them got into the game's code found and out the actual programmed averages.

[ This Message was edited by: BladeofDarkness on 2004-07-28 09:35 ]

Superguppie

Jul 28, 2004, 11:43 AM

Welcome back Caecilius. To start with, about the Twin Chakram. Most of the hunts were done together with Coolest-Mum. We both wanted one. That's why I kept hunting even after getting yours. I'm very thankful for that one. My HUnewearl uses it now with a little success. I need more practice with it.

Now complaints about the randomness of drops have indeed been around during your absence. However, that doesn't prove the drop-tables wrong. It's not that I believe them or disbelieve them, I just don't know. So, I'm making a program now that will help me keep track of kills and drops and analyze the data. That will lead me to my own empirical drop charts. I'm curious how close to, or far from the heyfool charts they'll be.

rena-ko

Jul 28, 2004, 11:45 AM

oran.
star amp from pal rappy (1/2):
dropped by 8th and 9th pal

redria.
iritista from hildetorr (1/21):
dropped by very first torr slain

pure dumb luck.

SSNX

Jul 28, 2004, 11:46 AM

If I recall I remember someone correctly saying that all drops are independent events. So it's not 1/2 for a drop, its 1/2 for a drop from the creature your currently fighting and 1/2 on the next. So you may be unlucky to get the chance of it not dropping many times in a row.

Also probabilities aren’t always as they look, 1/900 could also be 2/1800 or 3/2700. I believe your findings fit more with a 2/1800 drop rate (don't expect to find anything in the next 700 Tollaws, lol).

gream-green

Jul 28, 2004, 11:47 AM

On 2004-07-28 06:26, Caecilius wrote:
I decided to prove the so-called drop rates wrong, once and for fucking all.

You did not prove anything the drop rates are hardcoded so...the dropcharts are pretty darn close to dead on, if not totally dead on. I have seen 3 Tor's on Greenill all 3 have dropped me a frozen shooter. That does not mean the drop rate is not 1/2 just means I was lucky.

LoreSeeker

Jul 28, 2004, 11:50 AM

I just got a MKB in the beach quest after only two runs, does that mean the drop rate is 1/30? Nope. I just damn lucky, that's all. The idea of drop rates is to give an average number of enemies you need to kill in order to see a certain item appear. In general, Gae Bolgs drop more frequently for Bluefull than say, an Imperial Pick. People can be all over the place on drop rates: above, below, or just about right. It all averages out, and I think if you polled everyone on their luck, f00l's drop charts would be pretty accurate.

tai_EX

Jul 28, 2004, 11:55 AM

On 2004-07-28 07:17, KAMIKAZI wrote:
IN math there is also a thing called a rare event the upper 5 percentile of a event not happening with in the suggested probablility for 1/2 it would be like 6+

MATH?!? NOOOOO!!! I ESCAPED SCHOOL TO GET AWAY FROM THIS!!! j/k

well heres what i think. PURE LUCK! and most people on this forum agree with me! becaosue if you bother looking around for drop rates, and then come here and act pissed off because it took you a lil extra time to find that "cursed" Chakram. Well Ive been playin throught the Ultimate Caves in search of a Poilly Slime, so I can get a Lavis Cannon. Also Im looking for a Yasha from the Pan-Arms, but do you see me complaining about it? nope. Because im ENJOYING THE GAME. I love taking on things that are bigger then me! such as Olga Flow on Very Hard.. i beat him. All you other guys who are afraid, i put shame to you, because im a lowly Lvl.113! with a freakin Bravace i beat the beast!!

So instead of getting pissed off at the game because something isnt right, get pissed at yourself for getting md at something you can shut off and nevr play again if you felt like it. Take my advice. or drop it, but this is how I PLAY PSO!

heyf00L

Jul 28, 2004, 11:55 AM

Once I flipped a coin and it landed on tails 10 times. I conclude there is no heads side on a coin.

heyf00L

Jul 28, 2004, 12:13 PM

Yeah, I've read a lot about statistics and how to play the numbers, but you know what? I wrote a little script that uses the drop data to simulate killing an enemy (it generates random numbers and and decides if the enemy drops anything and then if it drops the rare) and when you test it on a 1 / 2 drop and tell it to kill 1000 enemies the result is ALWAYS dang close to 500 and it just gets more accurate the more enemies you tell it to kill. Things fluctuate more with the 1 / 10,000 drops but if you tell it to kill 1 million guys it keeps pretty close to the rare dropping 100 times.
So even tho the numbers are probabilities and not averages, you can basically substitute them for averages. And the more guys you kill the more accurate it gets.
The script is on this page, btw (http://trueconsoles.homestead.com/files/misc.html)

Caecilius

Jul 28, 2004, 12:25 PM

I created quite a controversy here, didn't I? *insert diabolical laughter here*

So instead of getting pissed off at the game because something isnt right

Whoever said I was pissed off at anything?

You did not prove anything the drop rates are hardcoded so...the dropcharts are pretty darn close to dead on, if not totally dead on. I have seen 3 Tor's on Greenill all 3 have dropped me a frozen shooter. That does not mean the drop rate is not 1/2 just means I was lucky.

Time for a philosophy lesson. Luck does't exist unless you're Chinese. Unless you ARE Chinese I'd stop this luck thing, right here right now.

How very wrong you are. How can you go and prove game data wrong? The drop rates are programmed right in the game data, which has been taken apart and looked at by a few people. No matter what you say isn't going to change the game data. You probaby just have crappy luck. Every rare enemy I've found with a 1/2 drop has dropped what I wanted. [b]You can't say the game is wrong just because you're having a hissy fit over stuff you can't find.[b]

I'm above this hissy fit thing. This, coupled with an excessively unhealthy diet, means that I'm suffering from severe stress problems and a ribcage that feels like wet superglue...
As for my proving game data wrong, there is a flaw in what you said. I have not proven any game data wrong, unless you count drop rates which happen to be wrong anyway. It's random. Probability's a load of crap. What matters is what happens...

If you were to take the drops from every person on this board you would have numbers close to the accepted averages.

Ah, here's someone with brains. Taking averages would seem like a sensible thing. But I must ask you if, for example, you are compiling a drop rate for Flame Visits from Viridia Merlans, you'd realise that the number of people who've gotten said item from said enemy has to stretch waaay past the 500 marker. Not only is the average therefore unfeasible and irrelevant, it would also be such a bloody waste of time that one would sit down and ask "What's the point?"
As I said much earlier, averages are usually biased.

Drop rates are the probability of the items being dropped
pfff. Probability again?? See a comment two responses above here...

dont flame ppl who just did work to try and help other hunters of PSO
Whoever said I was going to flame anyone unless they flamed me, which I'd clearly stated in my first post? It isn't a crime to deride ideas, you know.

its you luck that the drop rate didnt work like you wanted it to.
Luck again. See a very early response in this post.
Ironically you make a very backwards comment; I never accepted drop rates as facts in the first place. In fact, my theory of randomisation is more valid than piles of calculated drop charts which nearly everyone here treats as gospel.

OK listen im only just finished 9th grade and you seem to be very ignorant.
Ignorance is a virtue for some.
Not this fellow.
Ignorance, my friend, is completely the wrong word to use. You need to re-rad the opening paragraph in my first post.
OFF TOPIC: What does this 9th Grade of yours equate to in terms of age? This stupid American grade system is confusing my overheating English brain...

Now I just wait right here for a moderator to intervene...

heyf00L

Jul 28, 2004, 12:43 PM

Aw you didn't quote me, I feel hurt.

But I understand. You don't really believe what you're saying. You're just a troll that wants to stir people up.

Sitka

Jul 28, 2004, 12:54 PM

The problem with this thread is:

1) It's been done before

2) It doesn't benefit anyone - it's a rant, nothing more

3) It confuses the issue at hand: the purpose of the drop rate charts.

The drop rate charts were published by avid PSO players specifically to give others a chance to make an informed choice as to where to hunt the item they are looking for. Nothing more.

So, for example, should I spend hours of time chasing down a rare weapon where the drop rate is 1/305 or where it is 1/28,000. Generally, people would prefer to spend their time with the 1/305 drop rate, assuming the number of enemies to be killed in a given time period is roughly the same, as the odds are pretty good that they will get their weapon sooner.

I happened to get a Yasha off a Skyly Belra where the chance aren't too good and my friend picked up his Lavis Cannon off a Purplenum Tollaw where, again, the odds aren't too good. Does that mean everyone should hunt in those places for those items - of course not.

Consider the Vegas example. Many people consider the craps table to be one of the better places to gamble as you generally have better odds of winning, assuming you know what you are doing. Fools spend their hard-earned wages (thus, "Lost Wages") at the machines where skill has nothing to do with it - a monkey can pull the arm as well as a human. That does not mean your 96-year old grandmother won't walk in, drop in a dollar, pull the arm and win a million dollars - but she'd be a fool to think that the next pull will be a winner just because she already dropped $999,999 into the machine - Vegas makes lots of money off of such fools. So does the lottery in most states.

So, "luck," which I consider to be an international concept not owned by a single Asian culture (I know this because if I don't watch my beloved Giants, they win games and if I watch, they lose - my 'luck' has everything to do with their chances of winning so I sacrifice and play PSO so that they might win - my wife doesn't buy this argument either), is an attribute that can be improved by sucking down luck mats on your character to improve their chances of getting a critical hit. It is also considered by many an attribute that expains the great mistery of how Quo can get three Lavis Cannons while Kef took a few years to complete his Guld-Milla set.

I've had great days and I've had miserable months. It's all random. The more you play, the greater the chances you'll get to experience both sides of the coin.

Heads or tails anyone?

[ This Message was edited by: Sitka on 2004-07-28 10:56 ]

Caecilius

Jul 28, 2004, 12:59 PM

To heyf00l:

I was in the middle of writing my essay-length reply and as such you were unquotable. But I will for completion's sake:

I wrote a little script that uses the drop data to simulate killing an enemy (it generates random numbers and and decides if the enemy drops anything and then if it drops the rare) and when you test it on a 1 / 2 drop and tell it to kill 1000 enemies the result is ALWAYS dang close to 500 and it just gets more accurate the more enemies you tell it to kill.... So even tho the numbers are probabilities and not averages, you can basically substitute them for averages. And the more guys you kill the more accurate it gets.

You give me a system that predicts a drop with such impeccable accuracy and precision that it calculates any drop for any monster at any given set of co-ordinates and any given time, and I swear I'll eat my shirt.

I'm meeting you halfway there, so you'd better take it or leave it.

Furthermore:

But I understand. You don't really believe what you're saying. You're just a troll that wants to stir people up.
If I was a troll I wouldn't have the intellectual capacity to operate a lightbulb, let alone reply to your post.
As for my belief in my own statements: Correct until proven otherwise using the methods stated in my previous comment. Then, and only then, will I eat my shirt as stated above.

To Sitka:

Your example using this place you call Vegas is unconvincing. Also:

The problem with this thread is:

1) It's been done before

2) It doesn't benefit anyone - it's a rant, nothing more

3) It confuses the issue at hand: the purpose of the drop rate charts.

1) If you'd actually read the first bit of my first post you'd get the fact that I haven't been here for months.
2) Rant? I think not. See my first post.
3) You're so blind. I'd actually read a post PROPERLY before offering your opinions. My argument is that the drop rates do not have a purpose and are therefore a waste of bloody time. See my response to heyf00l about the shirt stuff.

[ This Message was edited by: Caecilius on 2004-07-28 11:14 ]

Quo

Jul 28, 2004, 01:04 PM

First of all, I would like to point out that there is no such thing as luck.

Also, I would like to point out that COMPUTERS CANNOT BE RANDOM.

PSO's algorithm is a pattern. Now this pattern is so complex, that it looks random. It's not.

It comes down to what heyf00L said. You can flip a coin twice, and not get tails. when you kill an enemy, lets say a Whitill pal rappy, you do not get one half of a red partisan. Instead the game generates a number from that complex patern called the algorithm, something like flipping a coin. Heads, red partisan. Tails, something else.

[ This Message was edited by: Quo on 2004-07-28 11:45 ]

Ketchup345

Jul 28, 2004, 01:06 PM

On 2004-07-28 10:25, Caecilius wrote:
Time for a philosophy lesson. Luck does't exist unless you're Chinese. Unless you ARE Chinese I'd stop this luck thing, right here right now.

How do you know that someone doesn't believe in luck? How can you say that only one group of people believes in luck? There is no proof of luck, and no proof against it. Can you quote anything that specifically says luck doesn't exist?

As for my proving game data wrong, there is a flaw in what you said. I have not proven any game data wrong, unless you count drop rates which happen to be wrong anyway. It's random. Probability's a load of crap. What matters is what happens...
How are droprates, things taken right from game data, wrong (besides a few possible calculation errors)? The drop rates are the average, not a guarentee.

Ah, here's someone with brains. Taking averages would seem like a sensible thing. But I must ask you if, for example, you are compiling a drop rate for Flame Visits from Viridia Merlans, you'd realise that the number of people who've gotten said item from said enemy has to stretch waaay past the 500 marker. Not only is the average therefore unfeasible and irrelevant, it would also be such a bloody waste of time that one would sit down and ask "What's the point?"
As I said much earlier, averages are usually biased.

The averages are programmed into the game data, and each time that you kill an enemy the game "rolls a die" to figure out if the rare dropped or not.

pfff. Probability again?? See a comment two responses above here...
How is probability a "load of crap"? Probability is the chance that you get something in x amount of tries. It is not perfect, it is only an average.

Luck again. See a very early response in this post.
Ironically you make a very backwards comment; I never accepted drop rates as facts in the first place. In fact, my theory of randomisation is more valid than piles of calculated drop charts which nearly everyone here treats as gospel.
The game is random, but within its randomness, it uses these averages to figure out if the item will drop or not. How can you prove that your "random theory" is more accurate? And again, how can you prove that luck doesn't exist.

Edit:
Quo-
How is luck non-existant?
Redria Pal Rappies drop Red Handgun, not Red Partisans.

[ This Message was edited by: Ketchup345 on 2004-07-28 11:07 ]

darthsaber9x9

Jul 28, 2004, 01:07 PM

i tell ya what, you stick with you randomisation theory, while me and countless others here continue touse the f00ls drop rates as a reliable guide as to what to hunt and when to expect here. i also get the impression that you think that people who use the drop rates are stupid and do not understand the concept of probability. also dont be so stupid as to think that you can tell everyone to drop their concept of luck and that anyone will listen to you.

Oh and another point of luck, which you seem to be so against: in your seemingly keen intrest to be outspoken, you failed to realise that you have included "luck" in your sig( "50 bringers and no luck") so make your mind up eh?

EDIT: gah wtf?!?! when i went to post, there was only 1 post on the page. therefore i apologise if i repeat some ideas in the posts before this one

[ This Message was edited by: darthsaber9x9 on 2004-07-28 11:09 ]

Sharkyland

Jul 28, 2004, 01:11 PM

I hate probability and statistics. If it drops, yay! If it doesn't, well try again.

Tycho

Jul 28, 2004, 01:12 PM

You say you believe in randomness instead of in dropcharts. At the same time you do not believe in luck, the positive outcome of randomness?

Also, if with the same ID and monster, on the same number of monsters one person gets more of the searched after rare boxes than the charts would predict, and the other would get less: what conclusion would you draw? Would you say the probability is less than the charts'? Would you say the odds are better? Would you say the charts are bullshit because the actual numbers aren't always exactly what the averages would predict?

I believe in randomness, luck, and drop charts.

Caecilius

Jul 28, 2004, 01:27 PM

On 2004-07-28 11:07, darthsaber9x9 wrote:
i tell ya what, you stick with you randomisation theory, while me and countless others here continue touse the f00ls drop rates as a reliable guide as to what to hunt and when to expect here. i also get the impression that you think that people who use the drop rates are stupid and do not understand the concept of probability. also dont be so stupid as to think that you can tell everyone to drop their concept of luck and that anyone will listen to you.

Oh and another point of luck, which you seem to be so against: in your seemingly keen intrest to be outspoken, [b]you failed to realise that you have included "luck" in your sig( "50 bringers and no luck") so make your mind up eh?[b]

Bold point first. You seem to fail to recognise that my sig has not been updated since I last came to this place.

Next up: thinking that anyone will listen to me. No, I do not believe this in any way. My last name is not Stalin, or Hussein, or Caesar, or Khrushchev, or the last name of any other dictator from any period of time.
Believe what you want to believe and if it's wrong, it's not my fault.

Next: the concept of probability is just that: PROBABILITY. Stuff doesn't happen because someone worked out a 69% chance of it happening. It happens because it happens. See above.

Next: Drop rates? Reliable? I think not...
See a shirt-based response I made to heyf00l concerning this.

Next: Stupidity is hardly the word usable to describe those who use the drop rates. I prefer to use the phrase "subconscious perseverance". Those guys hunting day in day out for, say, a Lavis, are unaware that they are subconsciously persevering. They see this prseverance as desire, or "using drop charts to get easier rares" as one guy I met on Altair recently put it.

Finally, learn to use a bit more grammar, especilly when starting sentences.

Ketchup345

Jul 28, 2004, 01:39 PM

On 2004-07-28 11:27, Caecilius wrote:
Believe what you want to believe and if it's wrong, it's not my fault.

Next: the concept of probability is just that: PROBABILITY. Stuff doesn't happen because someone worked out a 69% chance of it happening. It happens because it happens. See above.

Next: Drop rates? Reliable? I think not...
See a shirt-based response I made to heyf00l concerning this.

We can never really find what who is wrong and who is right. If you're wrong, don't say we didn't try to convince you otherwise.

It does happen because it happens, but it has a chance to happen, and that chance is based on probability.

They are very close to the average number of enemies it would take to get the item. It is meant for that purpose. Your findings do not prove or disprove anything at all, just that you got "unlucky" with a fairly easy drop.

Caecilius

Jul 28, 2004, 01:55 PM

On 2004-07-28 11:39, Ketchup345 wrote:
We can never really find what who is wrong and who is right. If you're wrong, don't say we didn't try to convince you otherwise.

It does happen because it happens, but it has a chance to happen, and that chance is based on probability.

[The drop rates] are very close to the average number of enemies it would take to get the item. It is meant for that purpose. Your findings do not prove or disprove anything at all, just that you got "unlucky" with a fairly easy drop.

Luckily for me this is divided into what look like paragraphs...

1) Don't say you never tried to convince me? OK, can do. I only listen to and acknowledge information from a select group of people, and you aren't one of that group.

2) Chance to happen? It either will or it won't. Use the grey squidgy stuff between your ears and recognise that it's common sense. Of course, if it's bound to happen then obviously it will happen. More common sense for you.

3) I had to edit tht bit because it would be unclear for others...
Okay. My findings? Don't prove/disprove anything, you say? They certainly pove that any faith I ever had in those drop charts (about one cell in my brain contained information that was moderately pro-drop charts) is now gone, gone, GONE.
Unlucky with a fairly easy drop, you say? Nothing in life is easy, or unlucky, as there is no luck in the universe.
Off topic: On the Chinese theory of luck. They believe that luck is a material object as well as a single-word expression for a random event to have occurred in one's favour.

To everyone on this board: don't bother me until the clock on the board says 2am, as I'm going to be busy. When I crawl out of bed tomorrow, THEN you may start criticising me again.

jspacemunkey

Jul 28, 2004, 02:12 PM

...this thread belongs in rants. maybe i'm jumping the gun a little, but i respectfully request that a moderator move this thread and request consideration for a lock. no offense intended, but i have a sneaking suspicion that this thread will degenerate into a flame war.

if you refuse to accept that the drop rates, as determined by people like heyf00L (and thank you, heyf00L, for all your work), reflect the probability of receiving a rare drop from an individual enemy, that's your choice. however, seeing as the drop rates are culled from the game code, and also based on my personal experience, i am inclined to disagree strongly with your stance. in addition, i am unimpressed with your attitude and approach.

that said, i am not going to claim that you are wrong. if you feel that the drop rates are innaccurate, that's fine. it doesn't affect me any. however, as has been stated, the rates are pulled directly from the game's code. the most important point to be aware of, and i know this has already been mentioned, is that these rates are on an enemy-by-enemy basis. a 1/900 drop does not guarantee you a rare by the 900th kill. the rate affects each individual enemy drop upon death. therefore it is entirely possible that killing 9000 of that 1/900 rare drop enemy would yield absolutely nothing. possible, but highly unlikely.

we do agree about one thing: perseverance. perseverance is the key to finding whatever items you desire within this game. perseverance is what keeps me going when i kill 57 redria pouilly slimes on ultimate over the course of almost two weeks and find only one lavis cannon. perseverance, not drop rates, keeps me from giving up. i know that the drop rate is 1/22, and as such i have confidence that if i persist i shoud find another cannon soon. however, i would not call this "subconscious" perseverance; the act of persevering is entirely conscious.

lastly, i would warn you that insults are only going to draw further flames and criticism. if you want to have a discussion then do so. acting like a child will not garner you any respect nor sway forum-goers to your side. please be more considerate.

[ This Message was edited by: jspacemunkey on 2004-07-28 12:14 ]

Ketchup345

Jul 28, 2004, 02:12 PM

1) Sorry to hear that you don't accept ideas and thoughts from many intelligent people. If you don't accept thoughts and ideas from more than a few people, than you are missing out on a lot of information for being so close-minded.

2) Yes, it either will or will not happen, but there is a chance that it will happen.
You flip a coin. There is a chance of either heads or tails, yes? But there is a 50% of landing on heads, and a 50% chance of landing on tails.

3) Can you prove that there is no luck (not the "Chinese" definition)? I have yet to see anything that says luck doesn't exist.
You just didn't happen to get a the right "flip/roll" on those enemies. The charts give an average, and that's all they are meant for. For every person that takes longer than the average to get the rare drop, there is almost certainly someone who gets it sooner, and vice versa.

4) You can't just tell someone that they shouldn't believe in luck, you should be able to back it up somehow.

From Dictionary.com (http://dictionary.reference.com/):
6 entries found for luck.
luck Audio pronunciation of "luck" ( P ) Pronunciation Key (lk)
n.

1. The chance happening of fortunate or adverse events; fortune: They met one day out of pure luck.
2. Good fortune or prosperity; success: We wish you luck.
3. One's personal fate or lot: It was just my luck to win a trip I couldn't take.

If luck doesn't exist, why do we have a very clear definition of it?

The game doesn't keep track of how many of each enemy you kill (the only counter like this is for the SJS, but it counts all kills). For every enemy you kill, it "rolls a die" with that many sides, and there is only one side that actually had the rare (more if it is over 50% chance).

[ This Message was edited by: Ketchup345 on 2004-07-28 12:21 ]

Tycho

Jul 28, 2004, 02:14 PM

Hey, you're ignoring my post. =(

On 2004-07-28 11:55, Caecilius wrote:

1) Don't say you never tried to convince me? OK, can do. I only listen to and acknowledge information from a select group of people, and you aren't one of that group.

Hey, then why are you even posting here? Don't tell me you didn't aim that at everyone here, your attitude to everyone in this topic seems to be pretty much the same.

They certainly pove that any faith I ever had in those drop charts (about one cell in my brain contained information that was moderately pro-drop charts) is now gone, gone, GONE.

I'm sure he was talking about whether or not it would prove anything about the being true (or not) of the drop rates. Don't tell me you couldn't figure that yourself, you seem capable of at least that.

Unlucky with a fairly easy drop, you say? Nothing in life is easy, or unlucky, as there is no luck in the universe.
Off topic: On the Chinese theory of luck. They believe that luck is a material object as well as a single-word expression for a random event to have occurred in one's favour.

Oh noes, luck doesn't exist because everything is determined! Who cares, it's physically impossible to calculate how everything is, was, and will be, so what does it matter if we would just call that unpredictability randomness, or just plain luck? It's pretty darn close, you know.

If you truly didn't believe in luck, then you shouldn't believe in the possibility of events turning in one's favor either. Did I even mention bad luck? If things could neither turn out 'lucky', or 'unlucky', it would exactly follow the drop charts, and an Agito or Lavis would drop at the 21st rare enemy.

And apparently you don't believe in drop charts either. Huh? That seems contradicting.

Primeval

Jul 28, 2004, 02:23 PM

On 2004-07-28 07:45, Eanae wrote:
How very wrong you are. How can you go and prove game data wrong? The drop rates are programmed right in the game data, which has been taken apart and looked at by a few people. No matter what you say isn't going to change the game data. You probaby just have crappy luck. Every rare enemy I've found with a 1/2 drop has dropped what I wanted. You can't say the game is wrong just because you're having a hissy fit over stuff you can't find. http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_nono.gif

Lol, I think he's blaming the programming data because he's not getting what he wants, and doesn't have anything else to blame it on. How childish http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_wacko.gif

[ This Message was edited by: Primeval on 2004-07-28 12:24 ]

digigram

Jul 28, 2004, 02:26 PM

This is the most stupid thread I have seen in a while. Primarily when someone tries to prove a point, (ala shingo trying to tell us love rappies live in the forest) and will not take no for an answer.

Not only will they no take no for an answer, they are being totally patronizing to everyone to make it seem as if they hold a superior intellect.

someone please lock this, it doesn't even belong.

Quo

Jul 28, 2004, 02:33 PM

On 2004-07-28 10:54, Sitka wrote:
It is also considered by many an attribute that expains the great mistery of how Quo can get three Lavis Cannons while Kef took a few years to complete his Guld-Milla set.

http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif

On 2004-07-28 11:06, Ketchup345 wrote:

Quo-
How is luck non-existant?

Well, let's take something that generally is asumed to involve luck and pull everything away from it untill all we have left is pure luck. Let's flip a coin. Now, a coin can land on heads, tails, or, just maybe, on its edge. This should be determined by "luck," right? What we're going to do is control every factor involved in flipping the coin except luck. So the first thing we have to do is look at all of the non-luck factors. The coin has to be exactly the same each time we flip it or else its not a "control". The force with which the coin is launched has to be exactly the same every time. The surface it's launched from has to be the same, as does the surface it lands on. The positions of those surfaces must remain the same as well. The wind resistance must not change, lets say we flip this coin in a vacuum. Now, you must agree that we put up no "luck suppression field" or something silly like that. Luck is completely free to act on this coin as it will. In fact, unless I've forgotten something, luck should be the only force that can act on this coin without our consent. Assuming that all of our control factors remain entirely unchanged not only will this coin alway land on the same side, but it will also land in the exact same spot in the exact same position every time. Where is Lady Luck?

Lets apply this to PSO. You say that an item drops if a person is lucky. Let's say we get a code-breaker and we punch in the apropriate code. Now, every enemy we kill drops its rare item. Where is Luck? Certainly the Code-breaker, cannot manipulate a supernatural force.

So, instead of just disproving luck, let me explain what really does occur. A coin lands as it does, a rare item drops when it does, because it is fated to. It drops because it must. Now before you flame me about how fate is bunk, hear me out. I'm not talking about fated before the world began or any type of long term fate like that. That kind of fate is shit. Fate is incredibly short termed (milliseconds, less than milliseconds, an amount of time just less than the time it takes us to make a choice)and depends entirely on our choices and the circumstances surrounding that choice. Should you choose(choice) to kill the enemy at the exact moment the algorithm dictates the rare item should drop (circumstance), the rare item must drop. Of course, we do not know when that exact moment is. So, what we're looking at is: when do you choose to press the button that tells the system to execute the attack? If the circumstanes are right, and it is a legitimate time to attack (e.g. while the system is on and working, not during while you're already attacking, not while you're getting the crap beat out of you, not while you're in town, etc.) then the system must execute that attack.

Choice is easy enough to see. What about circumstance? Just what is it? Circumstance is the outcome of fated actions. The outcome of previous choices and their corresponding circumstances. This doesn't help very much, does it? Where did the circumstances that caused the current circumstances come from? Why, they came fated outcomes, silly, from other choices and circumstances. Now to find the true beginning of all circumstance, we have to trace these circumstaces back to an original circumstance via the circumstances whose origin we wish to discover (since, I think we can agree, choices are made up on the spot and are therefore, mostly untraceable). I hope I didn't loose you there. As we grow closer to the original circumstance, our historical documents fail, and we are left with scientific and religious theory. But we cannot cease to trace the circumstance except that we can go no farther. Was there a supreme being who chose to make the circumstances as they were, and if so, what circumstances brought him into being? Or was it just circumstance? Was the entire universe crammed into a mass the size of a marble, and if so, what circumstance created this circumstance. These are questions for another time.

Redria Pal Rappies drop Red Handgun, not Red Partisans.

Heh, I fixed that. http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_razz.gif

RicoRoyal

Jul 28, 2004, 02:33 PM

On 2004-07-28 06:26, Caecilius wrote:
Off I go then, on my fool's quest to disprove the drop rates.

You've written quite a bit in this here thread, yet I see nothing that disproves the drop rates. A majority of your post are nothing more than slander towards other PSOW members. Also, comparisons between you and dictators have nothing to do with the topic of this thread, and as such are nothing more than empty words that you are trying to use for some extraneous purpose.

Like Sitka said, this is a rant. Your argument has absolutely nothing behind it; unlike drop charts, which have game data backing it up. Your personal experience with drops has absolutely nothing to do with disproving game data. You don't seem to grasp the concept of probability (probability is not certainty). You cannot criticize or try to disprove something when you do not even understand what that something (in this case, drop charts) represents.

Thank you for trying, come back when you have an actual argument on your hands. As jspacemonkey and Sitka pointed out, this needs to get moved to rants; the thread serves no true purpose in this forum other than to flaunt your arrogance and ignorance around.

Anuminus

Jul 28, 2004, 02:34 PM

On 2004-07-28 12:26, digigram wrote:
This is the most stupid thread I have seen in a while. Primarily when someone tries to prove a point, (ala shingo trying to tell us love rappies live in the forest) and will not take no for an answer.

Not only will they no take no for an answer, they are being totally patronizing to everyone to make it seem as if they hold a superior intellect.

someone please lock this, it doesn't even belong.

I agree. I mean COME ON! Childish... The drop rates are there. There is nothing you can do about it. http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif It IS in the game but as Quo said: The game is a complex pattern. I disagree with there not being luck. Sure its programmed but I remember in 1 room in forest in Very Hard a Hildeblue, Hildebear and some Rappies and Booma's appeared. 2 of the Rappies dropped they're wings. The Hideblue dropped its head. The Gigobooma dropped its Arm, and the Hildebear dropped its head. I call that luck. http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif
Actually, my real argument is that the code is so complex and large that it COULD be called random, or chance, or Luck. Because its so complex.

digigram

Jul 28, 2004, 02:39 PM

Here are my experiences with harder drops and easier ones (rare enemies).

5 love rappies = 5 twin psychoguns 87.5%
other 87.5% rare enemies have been like 4/0 meaning 4 rare enemies and 0 drops, meaning nothing, no meseta no dimate.

1 run green temple in ULT = yasminkov 2000h 1/1050 ---- about 22 Del-Ds
next run in PURP temple in ULT = Yasminkov 9000m 1/788 ---took about 4 Crimson assassins
(back to back-within about 20-30 minutes)

10 runs in mines redria = luminous field. ---2nd dubchic closest to me
1-2 run ruins redria = red mechguns.

there have been so many more, ask sitka how much unbelievable crap he has found. Way too much I tell you. Everything in every way about the drop chart rates, have been correct for my experience with rares.

There is no such thing as random. btw

[ This Message was edited by: digigram on 2004-07-28 12:44 ]

Ketchup345

Jul 28, 2004, 02:54 PM

Have you done this test with the coin and the vacuum (or at least provide a link where they did this and managed to contrl everything)? Who is to say that the "random luck" factor may not cause the coin to flip an extra time will never occur?
There may still be other uncontrollable factors in that test that you can't control anyways (such as gravity).

How are you positive that that explanation is what really happens? It can never be found out.

Some people believe in luck, some in fate, some in one choice/decision controlling possibly everything that happens later to some extent. What is really the truth will probvably never be figured out.

Luck is one of those things that can't really be proven/disproven.

RedSchwar

Jul 28, 2004, 03:07 PM

Hey Cae if you really wanna pull your hair out.....

I once found two Chainsawds in the same room.

If a drop is 1/900, for each enemy it is 1/900. If you kill 899 and somehow think that the 900th is going to drop, you're probably not going to get it. It only works out over an infinite number of trials. Each trial is independent of the others. The only way you can say "if I kill X enemies I have this % chance of finding Y rare" is if you look at that chunk of X trials as a single trial (get it?).

What does this mean? That some players will have better luck than others when it's all over. Hopefully the players blessed with good luck have the generosity to assure that everyone is PSO has enough vital gear to play.

Quo

Jul 28, 2004, 03:37 PM

On 2004-07-28 12:54, Ketchup345 wrote:
Have you done this test with the coin and the vacuum (or at least provide a link where they did this and managed to contrl everything)? Who is to say that the "random luck" factor may not cause the coin to flip an extra time will never occur?
There may still be other uncontrollable factors in that test that you can't control anyways (such as gravity).

How are you positive that that explanation is what really happens? It can never be found out.

Some people believe in luck, some in fate, some in one choice/decision controlling possibly everything that happens later to some extent. What is really the truth will probvably never be figured out.

Luck is one of those things that can't really be proven/disproven.

Then, by your own arguments, you cannot say that there is luck. What keeps me from slipping on a banana peel and floating off into space. Gravity obviously. But shouldn't I get lucky sometime and just fly away? Shouldn't somebody get lucky sometime and just fly away?!

Nothing personal ketchup, but humanity no longer dwells in caves. There is nothing wrong with 13, there are no gods on mount olympus, all of that was a lie. There is no luck. There is what there is. Everything happens for because it must happen, because we choose it must happen.

Is math non-existant? It's been explained to you. It's logical just like my explanation of luck. But have you ever seen something multiplied?

gream-green

Jul 28, 2004, 03:39 PM

On 2004-07-28 11:04, Quo wrote:
First of all, I would like to point out that there is no such thing as luck.

IMO this is not even margianlly debatable...

put simply: Any unpredictable phenomenon that causes an event to result one way rather than another can be considered luck (bad or good).

Quo

Jul 28, 2004, 03:48 PM

On 2004-07-28 13:39, gream-green wrote:

On 2004-07-28 11:04, Quo wrote:
First of all, I would like to point out that there is no such thing as luck.

IMO this is not even margianlly debatable...

put simply: Any unpredictable phenomenon that causes an event to result one way rather than another can be considered luck (bad or good).

Unpredictable phenomena don't just apear out of thin air. They're only unpredictable because we don't watch for them. If we watch, if we have the necessary tools to see all that is happening behind the scenes, we could predict any phenomena.

What if a meteor strikes you in the head and you die. Is that luck. No. You chose to stand in the very place where a meteor was doomed to strike. That meteor didn't just appear. It had been headed that way for thousands of years. It had to have struck that very spot. Now you made the choice to stand there. You did not choose to be struck by a meteor. But you did choose to stand in some spot that you thought was no different than any other spot. The fact that you didn't see said meteor coming, does not make that meteor striking you in the head an "unpredictable phenemenon."

Ketchup345

Jul 28, 2004, 04:00 PM

On 2004-07-28 13:37, Quo wrote:
Then, by your own arguments, you cannot say that there is luck. What keeps me from slipping on a banana peel and floating off into space. Gravity obviously. But shouldn't I get lucky sometime and just fly away? Shouldn't somebody get lucky sometime and just fly away?!

Nothing personal ketchup, but humanity no longer dwells in caves. There is nothing wrong with 13, there are no gods on mount olympus, all of that was a lie. There is no luck. There is what there is. Everything happens for because it must happen, because we choose it must happen.

Is math non-existant? It's been explained to you. It's logical just like my explanation of luck. But have you ever seen something multiplied?

How do you know that someone hasn't?

Luck helps something that is likely to happen, happen. The less likely something is to happen, the less likely it will be affected by luck. With the flying thing, there is next to no chance that it will happen naturally, so luck has very little to work with.
You haven't shown factual proof that it does or does not exist. Just theories, untested examples, and irrelevent stuff.

I have seen something multiplied. The number of fish in a fish tank "multiply" when one gives birth.

Different people believe in different things. There is yet to be factual proof that

If things "must happen", then why are there still the concepts of Heaven and Hell (since you go to one if you do things a certain way, and the other if you do them differently)?

Sitka

Jul 28, 2004, 04:05 PM

Well,

the original poster to this thread got exactly what he was after: that is, people got agitated and began posting on his misplaced thread.

This should have been in rants.

Quo, your argument is perfectly valid....as are the arguments supported by many others as to the existence of luck. In your world, you believe in fate or choice as the deciding factor as to why things turn out the way they do.

But, if you hadn't noticed, the PSO game designers actually did believe in a quality called "luck." Last time I checked, they still had "luck" materials in the game and "luck" is still a quality that you can enhance on your character to increase his chances of scoring a critical hit.

"Luck" is what we hope for when we create a c-mode map. We hope that we are "lucky" enough to get several single spawn rooms in one map and "lucky" enough to get enough HP mats to survive the Boss and "lucky" enough to get weapons with decent hit % and area % ... etc....

So, although one could buy your argument in your world as you see it (and it is perfectly valid in your world), one would have to say that "LUCK" exists in PSO and is a primary construct of the game itself.

I, on the other hand, believe in luck. I also believe in love, I believe in chi, I believe in the existence of the soul and many other things that I cannot grasp physically or see - because I do not live in a vaccuum.

Now, if we are all lucky, this thread will move to the rants thread where it belongs.

[ This Message was edited by: Sitka on 2004-07-28 14:07 ]

[ This Message was edited by: Sitka on 2004-07-28 14:08 ]