Best Run [Archive] - PSO-World.com

Sitka

Jan 13, 2005, 11:33 AM

Man, I don't know how you can remember all that Kef.

I have trouble remembering who I played with last night - must be my age - or the beer - I just don't know.

The best run I can remember was a Seabeds run - I think it was an East Tower solo quest. The first room I ran into had a bunch of recons. I picked up 2 level 29 Megids in that room. Later, I picked up a several more level 28-30 discs and I kept thinking "damn, these discs aren't that hard to find." I picked up some box drop rares, the damn Del Lily dropped a Dragon Slayer (WTF!) and overall, it was the best run I can remember.

On runs where I've picked up uber rares, I don't recall getting much of anything else and I can remember several runs where I picked up as many as 10+ boxes, all justys and dragon slayers.

I did get 2 Mil Lilies in one room once - one dropped a Windmill and the other dropped meseta.

Maybe I'll have some better runs now that I'm playing the Whitil id more.

KveerRaven

Jan 13, 2005, 12:37 PM

On 2005-01-12 17:01, Ryu_4 wrote:

On 2005-01-12 03:24, Kef wrote:

On 2005-01-07 13:14, KveerRaven wrote:
Best Run Ever:

First and only Character: K'veer Raven (Chara Info in sig)

Agito Real
Red Saber
Rappys Fan (eh...)
Dragon Slayer
Dragons Claw
Isn't the point of the topic all you got in ONE run ?

Hahaha interesting lol
well i was just wondering how that rappys fan popped out in ult...or are you saying you found the dragon claw red saber AND oro all on one run...through anything other than ult? interesting...

Actually, the only reason I added the Rappys Fan was because someone gave it to me during a trade. Even though I've acquired billions before, I figured, hey, who know when I can use it for a trade. So, yeah, there you go, otherwise, the rest of it was all done on Ult.

And as for the person who can compute very well, yes, it was the point, and that's why I posted. Thank you very much.

Shit KEF!!!! How DO you find time to do other activities in your life?! *gawks at those shweet finds*

RedSchwar

Jan 14, 2005, 01:35 PM

Unfortunately for Kef, he's one of those people that thinks finding great items makes you a great player.

People like that are never happy. A lv. 105 n00b could find the rarest item in the game just as easily as you. Thinking you're something special because of random chance is immature.

I've found things that are rare beyond the wildest imagination of most players, but I don't feel the need to re-assert myself as a good player by posting them. In fact, if I lost them all tomorrow, I could still get by with an ordinary 50 hit Charge Calibur or something like that. I know that my rares did not drop as a result of me being hot stuff, but because my GameCube randomized a certain number and gave me the item. For that reason I don't use them as a way to make myself feel more important than others. And those of you that do ought to be ashamed of yourselves.

[ This Message was edited by: RedSchwar on 2005-01-14 10:41 ]

KveerRaven

Jan 14, 2005, 02:02 PM

On 2005-01-14 10:35, RedSchwar wrote:
Unfortunately for Kef, he's one of those people that thinks finding great items makes you a great player.

People like that are never happy. A lv. 105 n00b could find the rarest item in the game just as easily as you. Thinking you're something special because of random chance is immature.

I've found things that are rare beyond the wildest imagination of most players, but I don't feel the need to re-assert myself as a good player by posting them. In fact, if I lost them all tomorrow, I could still get by with an ordinary 50 hit Charge Calibur or something like that. I know that my rares did not drop as a result of me being hot stuff, but because my GameCube randomized a certain number and gave me the item. For that reason I don't use them as a way to make myself feel more important than others. And those of you that do ought to be ashamed of yourselves.

[ This Message was edited by: RedSchwar on 2005-01-14 10:41 ]

ummmmm.....K

Not quite sure what to say to this one except that, if you didn't appreciate this thread, ignore it and move on to the next. There really was no point in you posting whatever it was you said.

I guess what I'm trying to say is, don't gripe about something that bothers you. Simply ignore, move on, and find something that entertains you better.

Mixfortune

Jan 14, 2005, 09:50 PM

On 2005-01-14 10:35, RedSchwar wrote:
Unfortunately for Kef, he's one of those people that thinks finding great items makes you a great player.

People like that are never happy. A lv. 105 n00b could find the rarest item in the game just as easily as you. Thinking you're something special because of random chance is immature.

I've found things that are rare beyond the wildest imagination of most players, but I don't feel the need to re-assert myself as a good player by posting them. In fact, if I lost them all tomorrow, I could still get by with an ordinary 50 hit Charge Calibur or something like that. I know that my rares did not drop as a result of me being hot stuff, but because my GameCube randomized a certain number and gave me the item. For that reason I don't use them as a way to make myself feel more important than others. And those of you that do ought to be ashamed of yourselves.

[ This Message was edited by: RedSchwar on 2005-01-14 10:41 ]

He posted his best runs. That is all.
As you said, it's random chance to get those runs, right?
Besides, the more runs you do, the better chance you have of getting good runs. Yes, a level 100 can get a really rare drop, but someone who has spent thousands of hours over nearly every aspect of the game will surely have better chances of coming across more stuff, agreed?

Unless you're referring to other threads elsewhere. In which case, your post doesn't belong here. Try baiting somewhere else.

[ This Message was edited by: Mixfortune on 2005-01-14 18:52 ]

ladyjaderiver

Jan 14, 2005, 10:17 PM

My best run was probably with my Yellowboze HUmar... I don't remember now what level he was, since he was deleted and replaced by a Yellowboze HUmar with a different name (long story)... Anyhoo.

'Twas my first real venture into the caves - an Addicting Food run. I was hoping to find a Sange. I ended up finding two of them, both with more than 30% to hit.

ForceOfBrokenGlass

Jan 14, 2005, 11:06 PM

On 2005-01-14 18:50, Mixfortune wrote:
Besides, the more runs you do, the better chance you have of getting good runs. Yes, a level 100 can get a really rare drop, but someone who has spent thousands of hours over nearly every aspect of the game will surely have better chances of coming across more stuff, agreed?

[ This Message was edited by: Mixfortune on 2005-01-14 18:52 ]
Actually the way real world numbers work for odds of finding rares and general ratios, the more you play doesn't change the chances of a winning number comming up. *It's the Gambler's Fallacy.*

The chances of finding a rare in PSO don't change no matter how much or how little you play.

RedSchwar

Jan 14, 2005, 11:20 PM

What he is saying is that if Player A does 100 runs and Player B does 500 runs, Player B will PROBABLY come out with more rares.

And I'm not baiting. And I don't have to ignore things that bother me. I think looking at a player and judging his worth based on items (which is what this thread is doing) is wrong. I'm pointing it out because I think it's unwholesome to view others that way.

Jan 15, 2005, 12:17 AM

And I'm not baiting. And I don't have to ignore things that bother me. I think looking at a player and judging his worth based on items (which is what this thread is doing) is wrong. I'm pointing it out because I think it's unwholesome to view others that way.

Kef certainly isn't doing that >_>

He's only replying to a thread, much like you. So don't point fingers.

Mixfortune

Jan 15, 2005, 02:16 AM

On 2005-01-14 20:06, ForceOfBrokenGlass wrote:
Actually the way real world numbers work for odds of finding rares and general ratios, the more you play doesn't change the chances of a winning number comming up. *It's the Gambler's Fallacy.*

The chances of finding a rare in PSO don't change no matter how much or how little you play.

As RedSchwar pointed out, I'm fully aware that rates do not change as you get more hours, just that you're more likely to hit the chances the more you play, as you get more "rolls", as it were.

Roll a 100 sided die twice. Not very likely to come up with a certain number. Now roll it 230 billion times. Chances are, you'll hit that certain number within those 230 billion rolls, even though the last roll still has the same chance as any other roll does of hitting that number.

ForceOfBrokenGlass

Jan 15, 2005, 03:32 AM

On 2005-01-14 23:16, Mixfortune wrote:

On 2005-01-14 20:06, ForceOfBrokenGlass wrote:
Actually the way real world numbers work for odds of finding rares and general ratios, the more you play doesn't change the chances of a winning number comming up. *It's the Gambler's Fallacy.*

The chances of finding a rare in PSO don't change no matter how much or how little you play.

As RedSchwar pointed out, I'm fully aware that rates do not change as you get more hours, just that you're more likely to hit the chances the more you play, as you get more "rolls", as it were.

Roll a 100 sided die twice. Not very likely to come up with a certain number. Now roll it 230 billion times. Chances are, you'll hit that certain number within those 230 billion rolls, even though the last roll still has the same chance as any other roll does of hitting that number.

But that's the Gambler's Fallacy right there. In reality the chances within 230 Billion rolls(Not like anybody could roll dice that many times without getting sick of it anyway.) will never change. Chances and odds are absolute. Now normally people would try to come up with frequencies and chances of change within a certain frequency for a certain number but in the end the chances stays the same reguardless of tries.

Theoretically in those 230 billion rolls you would have the chance to never hit that number and then again you could hit it every time, thing is the chance of that happening(Without purposely manipulating the dice) would stay exactly the same.

Somebody who plays the lottery every day for the rest of their life has the same odds of winning as a person who plays for the first time.

Mixfortune

Jan 15, 2005, 03:57 AM

On 2005-01-15 00:32, ForceOfBrokenGlass wrote:
But that's the Gambler's Fallacy right there. In reality the chances within 230 Billion rolls(Not like anybody could roll dice that many times without getting sick of it anyway.) will never change. Chances and odds are absolute. Now normally people would try to come up with frequencies and chances of change within a certain frequency for a certain number but in the end the chances stays the same reguardless of tries.

Theoretically in those 230 billion rolls you would have the chance to never hit that number and then again you could hit it every time, thing is the chance of that happening(Without purposely manipulating the dice) would stay exactly the same.

Somebody who plays the lottery every day for the rest of their life has the same odds of winning as a person who plays for the first time.

They are more likely to get the roll at least once in 230 billion tries then they are in 2 tries, regardless if they actually do or not. What you are talking about is that the 230 billionth roll ALONE will have the same chance as the first roll, 1/100. These are two different things, and are not as similar as you make them out to be.

Here's what you're talking about:
"If I flip a coin, there's a 50% chance it will be heads. It will always be a 50% chance that I will get heads, even on the 4th flip."

Here's what I'm talking about:
"If I flip a coin, there's a 50% chance it will be heads. However, for you to get four heads in a row, would be more like 20% chance (I'm not going to work it out exactly, but it's around here (4 heads, 3 heads 1 tail, 2 heads 2 tails, 1 head 3 tails, 4 tails)). The more you flip, the more likely that one out of the entire set will be heads."

Of course you can flip two thousand times and not get a single heads. But it's more likely to get, for example, 3 tails in a row than it is to get 2000 tails in a row, even though each flip is 50%.

Or rather, look at it in the sense it's used. PSO.
The more time played, the more likely it is that you'll get a certain rare, especially if you're hunting it. You may not get it in the first 3 seconds, but you have a better chance of getting it at least once in 5000 hours. Yes, it's possible you may never get it at all, and yes it's possible you can get it in 3 seconds, but this is about which is more likely.

I thing you have a fair argument, but it's flawed in one major way. You're using the lottery as an argument, in which you are dealing with 1 out of millions of chances. Use smaller examples, like coins over a longer period of time, with a rate of "success" that's a little more closer to the realm of PSO in general.

Using your argument, makes it sound like getting a Dragon Slayer is a once in a lifetime event.

Keep in mind though: Your argument is best used against those who say "A character with 500 hours is more likely to kill one booma and find it's rare". This is not what I'm saying.

[/off topic]

Skorpius

Jan 15, 2005, 04:00 AM

Not really one run, but it's close to it.
When it came time for my FOmarl to finally do offline Ep2, I equipped my offline junk and started into temple.
Purplenum Temple trial one: First Crimson Assassin = Yasminkov 9000M

I was rather excited to find such a high calibur rare so easily, saved the game, and started again.
Purplenum Temple trial two: First Hildelt = Hildetorr - Rabbit Wand

Not really in the same run, but needless to say, I had to save and restart twice, completing Temple on the third try. >>

ForceOfBrokenGlass

Jan 15, 2005, 05:20 AM

On 2005-01-15 00:57, Mixfortune wrote:
They are more likely to get the roll at least once in 230 billion tries then they are in 2 tries, regardless if they actually do or not. What you are talking about is that the 230 billionth roll ALONE will have the same chance as the first roll, 1/100. These are two different things, and are not as similar as you make them out to be.

But in the end the ratio of that entire rolling session fraction of getting the number to missing it should still be around 1/100 when reduced give or take correct?

Here's what I'm talking about:
"If I flip a coin, there's a 50% chance it will be heads. However, for you to get four heads in a row, would be more like 20% chance (I'm not going to work it out exactly, but it's around here (4 heads, 3 heads 1 tail, 2 heads 2 tails, 1 head 3 tails, 4 tails)). The more you flip, the more likely that one out of the entire set will be heads."

For you to get 4 heads in a row it's still 50:50, that basic variable never changes with time or tries.

Or rather, look at it in the sense it's used. PSO.
The more time played, the more likely it is that you'll get a certain rare, especially if you're hunting it. You may not get it in the first 3 seconds, but you have a better chance of getting it at least once in 5000 hours. Yes, it's possible you may never get it at all, and yes it's possible you can get it in 3 seconds, but this is about which is more likely.

The Gambler's Fallacy is based on the idea that greater numbers of attempts increase the odds, and that after a certain ammount of tries a certain outcome is bound to happen. That's simply not the case in any number. Believe me, this entire idea has lead to gambling addictions in this town.

I thing you have a fair argument, but it's flawed in one major way. You're using the lottery as an argument, in which you are dealing with 1 out of millions of chances. Use smaller examples, like coins over a longer period of time, with a rate of "success" that's a little more closer to the realm of PSO in general.

Using your argument, makes it sound like getting a Dragon Slayer is a once in a lifetime event.

Keep in mind though: Your argument is best used against those who say "A character with 500 hours is more likely to kill one booma and find it's rare". This is not what I'm saying.

I know what you're talking about but my comparison is more based on chances of finding say, a Sealed J Sword or the general 11 & 12 Star rare group.

The coin example is more based on common items like a Dragon Slayer or Yamato, and even still there's no certainty in those items either.

Mixfortune

Jan 15, 2005, 05:56 AM

That's my point.
Most drops in PSO are 1/900 or so. Not 1/10000000+.
People can't play a slot machine or the lottery 10 million times.
But you can kill much, much more than 900 of an enemy, given the proper amount of time.

That isn't to say the 900th enemy has an increased chance of dropping it.

There is a difference between the coin example, where you can have more trials than the supposed possibility, and the lottery example, where you can never even come close to ever reaching substantial odds, you've even admitted this.

Now, which one is closer to PSO? Even the rarest drops are closer to coins than they are close to the lottery.

Also, think of it this way, even using your lottery example. Let's say someone was handing out valid lottery tickets for the same lottery. The tickets aren't all different, but they aren't all the same either (since, benefit of the doubt for this discussion, we'll say same result can come up, as in PSO, same "roll" behind the scenes can come up). Let's say he was handing them out for free. Let's say the chances of winning the lottery are 1 in 10 million. Would you rather take 1 ticket, or 80 million tickets? Sure, there's no guarantee of winning 100%, but you can see which is more likely to succeed. Each ticket has the same chance, it never changes, as you've stated. But all you need is one out of the set. It's not quite the same as gambling, since you use far, far more chances than the odds deal with, more like flipping a coin than it is attempting to win a lottery or a jackpot.

If you wish to continue this, it'll be best to make a new thread, where we can have a better discussion on this, if you wish. I'd rather not have to bog down this thread anymore with side discussions that warrant their own thread rather than sweeping this one.

[ This Message was edited by: Mixfortune on 2005-01-15 04:11 ]

Swan

Jan 15, 2005, 09:34 AM

I still claim that nothing beats my 'Delsaber Buster, Double Saber, DB'S Saber and Varista (6 each of the second two) and beating up falz on hard and getting to v hard in two hours' run.

ForceOfBrokenGlass

Jan 15, 2005, 01:27 PM

On 2005-01-15 02:56, Mixfortune wrote:
That's my point.
Most drops in PSO are 1/900 or so. Not 1/10000000+.
People can't play a slot machine or the lottery 10 million times.
But you can kill much, much more than 900 of an enemy, given the proper amount of time.

That isn't to say the 900th enemy has an increased chance of dropping it.

My simple point is that even killing greater numbers of enemies than the drop rates would permit, killing the 900+ enemies makes no difference in chances of getting a rare in a 1/900 drop rate. Reguardless of how many you killed it doesn't change the drop rate because you can't rule out the chances of getting the same miss number twice or even endlessly.

The Gambler's fallacy is the idea that chances after a certain ammount of time get better, they simply stay the same. Because you can't rule out misses, rolling a 6 sided di even after 300 rolls the chances of getting a 1 would remain 1/6. I've only been saying that hunting does NOT increase your chances of finding the item. There's a chance to get rares it's just for the lower drop rate items it's unlikely reguardless.

The EXP is nice but the kill count does nothing for your hunt.

Karl_TheHUmar

Jan 15, 2005, 06:21 PM

My best run was in runes vhard 4pds choas bringers arm and some other comon rare

Mixfortune

Jan 16, 2005, 12:11 AM

On 2005-01-15 10:27, ForceOfBrokenGlass wrote:

My simple point is that even killing greater numbers of enemies than the drop rates would permit, killing the 900+ enemies makes no difference in chances of getting a rare in a 1/900 drop rate. Reguardless of how many you killed it doesn't change the drop rate because you can't rule out the chances of getting the same miss number twice or even endlessly.

The Gambler's fallacy is the idea that chances after a certain ammount of time get better, they simply stay the same. Because you can't rule out misses, rolling a 6 sided di even after 300 rolls the chances of getting a 1 would remain 1/6. I've only been saying that hunting does NOT increase your chances of finding the item. There's a chance to get rares it's just for the lower drop rate items it's unlikely reguardless.

The EXP is nice but the kill count does nothing for your hunt.

Then you do not understand what I'm saying. The points you made, I made as well. It's not about whether the last roll has the same chance or not, because we all know it does.

It's about whether, using 1 chance compared to 10 million chances, which is more likely to have ONE successful result. It's not about whether they will have a successful result, nor is it about whether the last roll has a greater chance or not. It's about which is more likely to have one of them being successful. It could be the first roll, the 12th roll, the 3000th roll, the 3460783rd roll, or the 9034852nd roll. Each one has the same chance individually, that we both agree on. But you points stop there. You need to look past that barrier.

Just make a topic as a reply.

ForceOfBrokenGlass

Jan 16, 2005, 02:03 AM

On 2005-01-15 21:11, Mixfortune wrote:

It's about whether, using 1 chance compared to 10 million chances, which is more likely to have ONE successful result. It's not about whether they will have a successful result, nor is it about whether the last roll has a greater chance or not. It's about which is more likely to have one of them being successful. It could be the first roll, the 12th roll, the 3000th roll, the 3460783rd roll, or the 9034852nd roll. Each one has the same chance individually, that we both agree on. But you points stop there. You need to look past that barrier.

I'll stop here...

Using 1 try compared to 1 million, neither has greater chances of success.
I've been stating that the belief of otherwise is the Gambler's Fallacy.

I wasn't talking about individual items, since items with higher drop rates are obviously more likely to drop than items with lower drop rates. I'm just saying hunting and/or piping doesn't change anything.

Just an extra definition. (http://skepdic.com/gamblers.html)

[ This Message was edited by: ForceOfBrokenGlass on 2005-01-15 23:46 ]

Ryuko

Jan 16, 2005, 03:28 PM

On 2005-01-15 23:03, ForceOfBrokenGlass wrote:

On 2005-01-15 21:11, Mixfortune wrote:

It's about whether, using 1 chance compared to 10 million chances, which is more likely to have ONE successful result. It's not about whether they will have a successful result, nor is it about whether the last roll has a greater chance or not. It's about which is more likely to have one of them being successful. It could be the first roll, the 12th roll, the 3000th roll, the 3460783rd roll, or the 9034852nd roll. Each one has the same chance individually, that we both agree on. But you points stop there. You need to look past that barrier.

I'll stop here...

Using 1 try compared to 1 million, neither has greater chances of success.
I've been stating that the belief of otherwise is the Gambler's Fallacy.

I wasn't talking about individual items, since items with higher drop rates are obviously more likely to drop than items with lower drop rates. I'm just saying hunting and/or piping doesn't change anything.

Just an extra definition. (http://skepdic.com/gamblers.html)

[ This Message was edited by: ForceOfBrokenGlass on 2005-01-15 23:46 ]

1 Hildetorr, 1/2 drop. Chance of at least one special 1/2.
2 Hildetorrs, 1/2 drop, Chance of at least one special 3/4.
3 Hildetorrs, 1/2 drop, Chance of at least one special 7/8.
4 Hildetorrs, 1/2 drop, Chance of at least one special 15/16.

Should be fairly easy to see that the more you kill, the greater chance that you will get a rare, from an overall statistical view. You misunderstand and misuse the gamblers fallacy.

Best run, mailed a friend on his two-hundredth odd HS run for Milla. Decided to give up and do the new Max attack. First tollaw drop? You guessed it! Milla!

[ This Message was edited by: Ryuko on 2005-01-16 12:30 ]

Lacronium

Jan 19, 2005, 05:47 PM

lol, I just made an account here today, but my best run that I can remember would have to be on my cousin's Pinkal FOneweral when I got a Cadaeceus, a Vjaaya, and an Inferno Bazooka in Very Hard Ruins. I know the rares aren't that great, but I decided to post.

thrended

Jan 20, 2005, 08:54 PM

Sadly, I think the best run I've had is just getting a Spread Needle in Greenill Endless Nightmare 4 (Ruins 1 only) three days ago. http://pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/anime2.gif Oh well, I'm just satisfied that it didn't take as long as I thought. ;p Why? (=o -ly related to the side-argument http://pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/anime1.gif) According to the geometric law, there's an 80% chance of after killing 1448.055815... Merlans, that one of them will have dropped a Spread Needle. But, I only killed ~136, and the chance of one of those dropping a Spread Needle is considerably smaller at 14%. My wording may not satisfy you, but it should be correct. http://pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/anime2.gif Of course I think we all understand that about the Gambler's Fallacy, that the drop rate for Spread Needle isn't ~1/900 for your first Merlan, ~1/899 for your second, ~1/898 for your third, etc. so that you get one every 901 or less Merlans; just because you've been hunting for five hours doesn't mean that you're half way done. http://pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_wink.gif

[ This Message was edited by: thrended on 2005-01-20 18:16 ]

Ritz_UK

Jan 22, 2005, 08:48 AM

Geez. I mean. Wow. What's the matter with you? The game isn't too difficult to play, and it does really focus on the equipment you use.

It requires no skill to get the item, but posting rare finds is not just cool, it does give some degree of experiance. What makes the game good is remembering these experiances and this forum provides the ability to share them.

You should be ashamed of yourself for:
a) Criticising other people to assert your own self assrued superiority.
b) Being so involved with a computer game you get upset that someone is 'better' than you.

DezoPenguin

Jan 22, 2005, 11:36 AM

On 2005-01-15 23:03, ForceOfBrokenGlass wrote:

I'll stop here...

Using 1 try compared to 1 million, neither has greater chances of success.
I've been stating that the belief of otherwise is the Gambler's Fallacy.

I wasn't talking about individual items, since items with higher drop rates are obviously more likely to drop than items with lower drop rates. I'm just saying hunting and/or piping doesn't change anything.

Just an extra definition. (http://skepdic.com/gamblers.html)

[ This Message was edited by: ForceOfBrokenGlass on 2005-01-15 23:46 ]

Your link makes better sense than your argument. Or, more accurately, it explains the point better (and is worth reading).

The "Gambler's Fallacy" is the folly of believing--and I've seen people make it repeatedly in this forum--that a 1/63 chance means that one out of sixty-three tries will result in exactly one drop. It's the folly of believing that because the first 899 Tollaws haven't kicked out that Twin Chakram, that the 900th is all but guaranteed to do so.

Or, more accurately, it's a complete inability to comprehend basic probability math and the mistaking of probabilities for certainties.

More attempts = more chances for success. Someone who kills 900 Tollaws has a higher chance of getting a rare drop somewhere in the 900 than someone who kills 1 Tollaw. Even your own link points out that you're more likely to win the lottery if you play more often (just that the ridiculous odds make it ludicrous to play often enough to swing the probabilities even to a reasonable level).

But to say that piping or hunting for specific monsters doesn't increase the odds of getting a drop in your favor is wrong.

Another part, I think, of why the point doesn't apply quite the way you mean it is that in PSO there's no "bet" placed. In gambling, every failure is a loss of money. Since the odds of winning are fixed, the expected loss per play is a set number.

Continuing the example with PSO, say that your...well, let's take a Hildebear from Greenill Temple, since I hunted up a Magic Rock "moola" a while back. 1/46 drop rate on that.

If PSO were a gambling game, let's say that the house is bright and says that a bet costs $1 and a "win" (rare drop) pays $31. You have a 45/46 chance of a loss of $1 and a 1/46 chance of a gain of $30 ($31 less your original bet). Therefore your expected return on any one play is a loss of 32.6 cents.

That expected loss will not change. If you play 46 times, your expected loss of money will be exactly $14.996 (46 times $0.326). Playing the same gambling game more often will NOT mean you're more likely to walk away from the table with more money. That's, I believe, what you're talking about when you say the odds of it occurring do not improve with repetition.

There is a distinct difference in Phantasy Star Online, though. Namely, that there is no cost to play the game and the amount of a win does not matter. Only the chance of a win occurring (getting a rare drop) matters. And the odds of a win happening do increase by making more "plays." (kills).

That even applies to gambling--the guy who plays blackjack for 400 deals is more likely to beat the dealer somewhere in there than the guy who plays once. What he's NOT likely to do is walk away from the table with more money than the guy who plays once, unless he's very lucky, because the probablity is his losses will offset his wins at the expected rate (in fact, he's actually WORSE off, technically speaking, than the guy who plays only once, because as the sample size increases, the more the results tend towards evening out to exactly the statistical probability).

(Actually, blackjack is a lousy example...roulette is better 'cause it's a pure luck game unless the house is cheating.)

Geez, I'm a high-school level math nerd. *sigh*

Flashlight

Jan 22, 2005, 01:13 PM

hmmm... God ... Did you make me think back there ...

I think there is 1 mistake they made in this whole site...

The drop rates... they needed to let those out...it confuses many people...

I think its al ljust based on luck(not LCK from ure char but real luck)... Lets give an example:

1 guy is making 1 run threu forest and finds a rare weapon... The other guy made 6 rounds threu it and find at the 6th run the same special weapon...ofcourse they had the same ID...im not just saying this but I expierenced it(deu I play offline)

I got this guy on msn that found a weapon at the 1st round of Forest (ULT) and I still aint got that weapon... dunno what it was anyways...

But I just think that some weapons are harder to find because they are uber weapons (like the Lavis Cannon)... so this is my opinion

Neith

Jan 22, 2005, 02:16 PM

Best run do far was probably:
Skyly Ult Caves
2x Sange (2 Mils in same room http://pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif)
1x Chain Sawd (Vulmer)
1x Last Survivor (box)
1x Bravace (box)

About 2 runs later, I found Red Daggers and Sword http://pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif

Flashlight

Jan 24, 2005, 06:04 AM

Jelous... >.<

DezoPenguin

Jan 24, 2005, 10:07 AM

On 2005-01-22 10:13, Flashlight wrote:
hmmm... God ... Did you make me think back there ...

I think there is 1 mistake they made in this whole site...

The drop rates... they needed to let those out...it confuses many people...

I think its al ljust based on luck(not LCK from ure char but real luck)... Lets give an example:

1 guy is making 1 run threu forest and finds a rare weapon... The other guy made 6 rounds threu it and find at the 6th run the same special weapon...ofcourse they had the same ID...im not just saying this but I expierenced it(deu I play offline)

I got this guy on msn that found a weapon at the 1st round of Forest (ULT) and I still aint got that weapon... dunno what it was anyways...

But I just think that some weapons are harder to find because they are uber weapons (like the Lavis Cannon)... so this is my opinion

*sigh*

It is based on luck. Drop rates (which, by the way, were ripped from the actual game data by Sounomi and others, so they aren't anyone's "opinion" at all) indicate the fractional chance of success, or, how lucky you have to be.

For example, much as I'd love a Guld Milla for any of my Rangers, I'm not going to spend my valuable time doing runs of Central Dome Fire Swirl or the Forest section of Soul of a Blacksmith with Cirielle looking for that Milla because 1/28K+ isn't something that's likely to happen "sooner or later."

On the other hand, when Morrigan can handle it (&%^@%$^!&@ slower-than-dirt RAcaseal development), I'm going to do a lot of Unsealed Door runs with her in search of a Yasminkov 3kR and Holy Ray, (1/1050 and 1/46 or 47, respectively), because the likelihood of success is at least manageable (For 61 Gillchichs, it works out to be a 5.65% chance of getting a Yas on any given Unsealed Door run).

The confusion with drop rates isn't caused by the publication of the rates; it's caused by people's lack of ability with probability theory. A chance of 1/900 does not, NOT, NOT mean that one in every 900 drops will be the rare. It merely means that every time a monster with this drop rate is killed, there's a 1/900 chance of a rare dropping. Within 900 kills, you might really end up with one rare, with five or six rares, or no rares at all. Heck, there's even an infinitesimal chance of (1/900)^900 that 900 rares will drop.

Over time, and given hundreds of thousands of kills, the actual number of rare drops seen will work out to be very close to one for every 900 kills, but very few players (well, Kef, maybe ^_^) actually kill enough of any Ultimate mode monster for the kill count to assume "statistical significance." Therefore, the drop rates' best practical use is as a guide to approximately how difficult a particular drop is and therefore where one's time is best spent.

Flashlight

Jan 24, 2005, 02:41 PM

Damn... your absolutely right...

Balbarei

Jan 24, 2005, 05:52 PM

My best run was probly

same day i found Psycho Wand from a Mil Lily in a random game..
so

p.wand
red saber
ricos glasses
dragon slayer x10 ^_^
Rabbit Wand x2 from Hildetorr
Spread Needle

all thos in less then 24hours http://pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_smile.gif

Saffran

Jan 24, 2005, 10:03 PM

Oh Ye of little patience... If you're going to do only one run, make it long.
My "best" run (in terms of rares) gotten is one I made on DC about 14 months ago. A complete run, forest to Falz on Ult viridia, yielded
1 Nelgal
5 Red Hanguns
2 Red Daggers
1 Sense Plate
7 Imperial Picks

I make very few complete runs on BB, seeing I don't have the time for this, but the one run I consider the best I made on there was a run Forest to Falz + EN4. I have no idea what it gave, and actually I don't care about what it yielded, but I had the time of my life trashing all those ennemies with a few players I met along. One of them was making super funny comments at the bosses, and others were roleplaying live cahracters all through the lobby action keys, it was just massive fun. The log of that game is like 270k long.