This getting ridiculous.....

[Bu5ta]

Ok, as some of you may know, I have been hunting Yasminkov 9000M from Temple. I have done 85 Temple runs and 50 MA2 runs (which average 6 per run.) and various other Temple Alpha runs, and some 2-3 room online Temple runs....

Which comes out to about 1500-1600 Crimson Assasins so far. The drop it 1/788. Now I know, I know.... I shouldn't be whining and the drops are pure luck, but SERIOUSLY?!

I have never had this much trouble getting a rare. I have seen 13 Mils(6 Windmills), 7 Love Rappies(5 God/Luck), and 3 Torrs(2 Rabbit Wands).... I have gotten every single rare in Temple at least TWICE except for Spirit Garment, and yet Yasminkov 9000 STILL HAS NOT DROPPED.

Now my question is, can anyone tell me how many I would have to kill to have a 75% chance of getting it? I know Dezo Penguin wrote about using Logarithms, but I wasn't paying much attention when I went over that in Algebra so I don't know how to do logarithms..

Well, anyways, I felt like venting some of my frustration.... Oh and Crimson Assassin has dropped me 4 PD's so far.... possibly 5, but I'm not sure if the 5th one was from CS or an Ob Lily... so I don't count it.

[Skorpius]

Now my question is, can anyone tell me how many I would have to kill to have a 75% chance of getting it? I know Dezo Penguin wrote about using Logarithms, but I wasn't paying much attention when I went over that in Algebra so I don't know how to do logarithms..
There is no percentage since there is no number you can kill to have a 100% chance of getting it.

1/788 = 0.001% chance.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Skorpius on 2005-04-11 15:05 ]</font>

[Jason]

Wow. So much for trying to be the best RAmar ever... someday. If ever. http://pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_lol.gif

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Jason on 2005-04-11 15:50 ]</font>

[Hrigg]

Don't go crazy. I did 115 Temple runs til I got it. It was worth it to. You'll find it when the time is right.

[RedSchwar]

Wow. So much for trying to be the best RAmar ever... someday. If ever

Yes, because we all know rares equal skill.

Don't troll.

[Jason]

Killing Crimson Assassins equal no skill.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Jason on 2005-04-11 16:01 ]</font>

[RedSchwar]

Neither does playing PSO.

Cmode is memorization, so is the rest of the game.

What makes a player GOOD is his virtue as a player.

Virtue is not measured in wealth or battle ranks, it is measured on the amount of good service one does for his friends.

I think everyone here tends to forget that, and are only concerned with their own agendas.

[Jason]

Or her.

[RedSchwar]

I think everyone knows what I meant. Please don't spam.

[TheDing]

dont feel bad, Bu5ta I'm hunting for a red handgun off a el rappy (purplenum drop rate is 1/315 in ult forest) 6 photon drops so far...http://pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_frown.gif

[Jason]

Thank you for my 1760th post. Okay, I'm done now.

[Mixfortune]

On 2005-04-11 15:54, RedSchwar wrote:

Wow. So much for trying to be the best RAmar ever... someday. If ever

Yes, because we all know rares equal skill.

Don't troll.



Who said anything about skill?
"Best Ramar" could be referring to a Ramar in optimal stats number wise, not necessarily "skill".

Take your own advice.

Anyways, for original poster, such an equation wouldn't really matter so much, since really, you'd have to kill to equal that supposed number, while getting it before that point or not even getting it.

Also note, he's not saying "how many do I have to kill for the next one to be 75%", it's more like "about how many do I have to kill in order to reach about a 75% chance that at least one will drop it by the time it reaches that number". There is a difference.

Personally, it's more complicated to figure out, while not changing anything drastic. I'd much rather know the base fractional chance of it occuring anyways. But that's just me.

[Tycho]

On 2005-04-11 14:57, Skorpius wrote:

There is no percentage since there is no number you can kill to have a 100% chance of getting it.


He asked for 75% chance.

788 CA's is one 9M on average.
According to calculations I made earlier in some crappy topic in General some time ago (too much trouble to dig it up), to have a 75% chance to find at least one Yas9M, you would need to kill 1,092 Crimson Assassins. You did that already, if I look at how many runs of Temple and MA2 you did.

[kazuma56]

try doing some offline runs on multiplayer (if you have 2 controllers), I'm offline only and have probably done more than 1000+ seabed runs to get a AF and never got it, one day I started a multiplayer run and the last room of deldepths the AF field dropped with some really high rating, 282 DFP and 144 EVP (or around there).

there's nothing anyone can really say but keep trying, maybe try looking for something else for awhile and come back to hunting the weapon.

[Bu5ta]

On 2005-04-11 17:22, Tycho wrote:

to have a 75% chance to find at least one Yas9M, you would need to kill 1,092 Crimson Assassins. You did that already, if I look at how many runs of Temple and MA2 you did.



Thank you.... I'm gonna do some more runs today, just like everyday... I'm hoping it drops sometime soon so I can get going on some easier hunts and build my rare collection again.

Thanks for the help guys.... does anyone know where Dezo Penguins post is? He had a formula for it I thought that would give u roughly a 99% chance of getting one. I'd like to know that so that I have a target to look for.

[off topic] As far as me being the best RAmar ever, its merely just a joke. I used to say RAmars suck, but now I made one, and everyone was like "WTF?! You hypocrite!." My reply was then, "I had to make one, somebody has got to make RAmars look good again..." which is basically where the idea came from. Don't take it serious, and Jason.... Congratulations.

[derBauer]

You can't calculate that percent because each act is an independent event. The game does not track whether or not you have killed one crimson assassin or 764,456.

[Ryna]

On 2005-04-11 18:37, Bu5ta wrote:
Thanks for the help guys.... does anyone know where Dezo Penguins post is? He had a formula for it I thought that would give u roughly a 99% chance of getting one. I'd like to know that so that I have a target to look for.


I'd also like to know where Dezo Penguin's post is. I haven't been able to find it using Forum Search.

[Androphonius]

Maths:

1/788 ~= 0.0012

First kill - prob = 0.0012
Second kill (given fail of first) - prob = (1-0.0012)*0.0012
Third kill (given fail of first and second) - prob = (1-0.0012)*[(1-0.0012)*0.0012] = (1-0.0012)^2*0.0012

etc.

Total prob = sum of probabilities = geometric series
(which incidently will sum to 1 (ie. 100%) as number of kills tends to infinity, since common ratio < 1)

For a geometric series, sum to n terms, S is:

S=a[ (1-r^n) / (1-r) ]

Here a = 0.0012, r = 1 - 0.0012 = 0.9988

For 75%, we want S = 0.75, then

0.75 = 0.0012 * [(1 - 0.9988^n) / (1-0.9988)]

Which is the same as,
0.75 = 0.0012 * [(1 - 0.9988^n) / (0.0012)]

ie.
0.75 = (1 - 0.9988^n)

so,
0.9988^n = 1-0.75

taking logs:
log(0.9988^n) = log(1-0.75)

invoke log laws:
n*log(0.9988) = log(1-0.75)

so,
n = log(1-0.75) / log(0.9988)

n=1155

You would need to kill 1155 for a 75% chance.
Slight Maths overload http://pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif

(General formula:
kills = log(1 - percentchance) / log (1 - droprate)
hope that helps)



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Androphonius on 2005-04-12 07:18 ]</font>

[Ryna]

Thanks for the post Androphonius. I actually remember doing this stuff back in college. http://pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_wacko.gif

[Androphonius]

Compared to the stuff I am doing for my Maths and Physics masters, this is cake; although I might have better spent the time typing that on studying...
I should get a degree in procrastination!

[Bu5ta]

Haha, well thanks for the help. I did a few more MA2 runs and another Temple run. Still no yas9k, but I did get 2 more AAR, another Rabbit Wand from Torr, and best of all:

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v295/busta0990/Eggie.png

My 2-3 room Temple runs finally paid off.....

[SJ]

On 2005-04-11 16:32, Jason wrote:
Thank you for my 1760th post. Okay, I'm done now.


Isn't that against forum rules?

[Ryna]

On 2005-04-12 09:15, SJ wrote:


On 2005-04-11 16:32, Jason wrote:
Thank you for my 1760th post. Okay, I'm done now.


Isn't that against forum rules?



I believe Jason was following this forum rule:



Flaming
We will not tolerate flames of any nature. Flames include posts that clearly insult other members. We will not tolerate name calling, harassment, insults, offesive remarks and insinuations.

If you feel that you have been inappropriately flamed or harassed, please do not respond to it in any way and do not flame or flamebait back. Please contact a mod or an admin and inform them of the situation and provide a link to that thread. Before a staffer can take action, you have to be sure that you did not instigate the situation, that you did not further encourage the harassment, that you did not respond inappropriately, that you have tried to resolve the situation in a calm and matured manner or have calmly asked the offending member to stop, and that if things get bad, you have tried to remove yourself from the situation even if that means discontinuing to post in the thread the incident involves until it can be resolved by a staffer.

[Blitzkommando]

Based on that you could factor in, say, percent of the rare having percents as well, correct? This would be interresting to factor into some of the rares that myself and others I know have found. I'm a math nerd so, math problems are a way I have fun. My question is, where are those charts for the percent of getting a specific attribute to a weapon given the area in which it was found?

[Skorpius]

On 2005-04-11 17:22, Tycho wrote:


On 2005-04-11 14:57, Skorpius wrote:

There is no percentage since there is no number you can kill to have a 100% chance of getting it.


He asked for 75% chance.

788 CA's is one 9M on average.
According to calculations I made earlier in some crappy topic in General some time ago (too much trouble to dig it up), to have a 75% chance to find at least one Yas9M, you would need to kill 1,092 Crimson Assassins. You did that already, if I look at how many runs of Temple and MA2 you did.


Yes, I know he was asking for 75%. The problem is, the chances of getting the item is still 0.0012%. No matter what you do, every kill will give you a 0.0012% of getting that item.

[Thalui89]

its probably just bad look. persevere, and it will be worth it

[Hamburger3000]

http://www.pso-world.com/viewtopic.php?topic=93211&forum=7&16

here is the denzo post

[Androphonius]

On 2005-04-12 13:41, Skorpius wrote:


On 2005-04-11 17:22, Tycho wrote:


On 2005-04-11 14:57, Skorpius wrote:

There is no percentage since there is no number you can kill to have a 100% chance of getting it.


He asked for 75% chance.

788 CA's is one 9M on average.
According to calculations I made earlier in some crappy topic in General some time ago (too much trouble to dig it up), to have a 75% chance to find at least one Yas9M, you would need to kill 1,092 Crimson Assassins. You did that already, if I look at how many runs of Temple and MA2 you did.


Yes, I know he was asking for 75%. The problem is, the chances of getting the item is still 0.0012%. No matter what you do, every kill will give you a 0.0012% of getting that item.



Yes, but in the act of killing (in this case) all 1155 monsters gives a probability of 75% of getting at least 1 (not the same as kill this many, and there is a 75% chance of the next kill causing the drop - which is obviously wrong). Of couse, once you have actually killed some of them, and thus set some of the possible out comes, the probability changes.

Easy example - if you are going to flip two coins, you have a 75% probability of getting at least one head (possible outcomes - [HH], [HT], [TH], [TT]), though the individual probability remains 50% for each coin. If you flip the first coin, and get tails, then you only are only left with 50% of heads with the remaining flip, even though your initial prob was 75%.

And there is a number you can kill to have a 100% chance of getting it, unfortunately that number is infinity...

[Bu5ta]

Well using the same calculations that you previously used, how many would I need to kill to have a 99% chance?

[Hamburger3000]

you are cursed lol
same as me ( excepte that temple run , first timwe so many luck )

hunting for luminous field ( pinkal tollaw ) i gain over 15 lvl doing stupid forest..

i never found something valuable seriusly, all my stuff isnt rare at all... i hope the day my stupid xbox will give me something

never give up the fight lol

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Hamburger3000 on 2005-04-12 17:21 ]</font>

[Bishop711]

If you kill the exact ratio you have about 63% chance
Its the same for all items above 1/50.

1x = ~63%
2x = ~87%
3x = ~95%
4x = ~98.2%
5x = ~99.3%
6x = ~99.8%
7x = ~99.91%
8x = ~99.97%

dont have it yet? maybe your next life.

[Neith]

woot, so according to that, if I kill 100,824 Gi Gues, I should have a 99.97% chance of seeing one SJS... bugger. http://pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_disapprove.gif

I actually dont tend to use formulae, as far as I'm concerned, each Crimson Assassin you kill has a 0.0012% chance of gibbing the Yas9KM. The next Assassin will have a 0.0012% chance etc... each assassin you kill, the drop rate does not consider (I dont think) the number of assassin's you've killed, it just concentrates on the Assassin you're currently fighting, therefore I believe the chance will always be 0.0012%.
I'm probably wrong, but that's how I think the game works.

[Tycho]

On 2005-04-12 15:37, Androphonius wrote:




On 2005-04-12 18:50, Bishop711 wrote:


Indeed. ;o
> Both



On 2005-04-13 10:02, UrikoBB3 wrote:
I actually dont tend to use formulae, as far as I'm concerned, each Crimson Assassin you kill has a 0.0012% chance of gibbing the Yas9KM. The next Assassin will have a 0.0012% chance etc... each assassin you kill, the drop rate does not consider (I dont think) the number of assassin's you've killed, it just concentrates on the Assassin you're currently fighting, therefore I believe the chance will always be 0.0012%.
I'm probably wrong, but that's how I think the game works.


Ofcourse, for each individual Assassin the rate is the same. But that doesn't mean these formulae are wrong. When you kill more monsters, there's a higher chance you'll get a rare, duh. ;p

[Neith]

Yeah, obviously http://pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_wacko.gif I just think that working out a mathematical formula to how many Assassin's you have to kill is a bit strange... Yes, you can work out the number of Assassin's needed to have a 99.97% chance of the Yas, but I personally wouldn't rely on formulae, when there is still a 0.03% chance of not getting the drop. Personal preference. Sone people abide to these formulae, I don't tend to use them for my runs (100,000 Gi Gues is just plain wrong....) http://pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_disapprove.gif

[Bishop711]

On 2005-04-13 10:02, UrikoBB3 wrote:


I actually dont tend to use formulae, as far as I'm concerned, each Crimson Assassin you kill has a 0.0012% chance of gibbing the Yas9KM. The next Assassin will have a 0.0012% chance etc... each assassin you kill, the drop rate does not consider (I dont think) the number of assassin's you've killed, it just concentrates on the Assassin you're currently fighting, therefore I believe the chance will always be 0.0012%.



That's true but the more you kill the better chance you will have right? Of course the game does not remember how many guys you have killed. And each guy will be 1/x. But that does not mean you did not have a chance of finding it which does accumulate.

These are just the odds that somenoe will find at least 1.

It will never be 100% but the more you kill the closer it will get.

1/10x = 9.5%
1/4x = 22.1%
1/2x = 39.4%
3/4x = 52.8%
1x = 63.2%

Uriko you had 6.6% chance so far.

[Neith]

w00t http://pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif 6.6%... I really need to get back to SJS runs >_< My post earlier wasn't meant to sound like a rant, Ive just never had a need to use formulae before...

[Bu5ta]

Sweet mother..... I FINALLY GOT IT.

Offline Temple Run #87. That makes 87 Temple Runs, 61 MA2 runs and numerous 2-3 room online temple runs.

Tekked to (0/15/0/0). The percents were somewhat disappointing, but on mechs it doesn't really matter anyways....

I'll have a pic up soon.

Thx for all the help guys!

[Androphonius]

Congrats!

[rena-ko]

the power of math ^-^)b

congrats on that

[Bu5ta]

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v295/busta0990/yas9k.png

Heh heh... I couldn't wait to post that.

Once again thanks for all the help everyone!