Drop Questions

[Fanta]

Right, this thread is for any questions on Drop Rates.
There are many drop rate charts out. I mainly use, Hard Drop Rates (http://faqs.ign.com/articles/497/497901p1.html), VH Drop Rates (http://faqs.ign.com/articles/401/401972p1.html), Ult Drop Rates (http://faqs.ign.com/articles/393/393635p1.html) and Tychos Drop Rates (http://romain.bernardi.free.fr/pso/droprates.xls) for my GC version of PSO.
I understand if this is a stupid thread but I think it could help.

Anyway down to business.
I need to know the drop rates (Difficulty, Area, Monster and ID to use) for the Celestial Shield (http://romain.bernardi.free.fr/pso/droprates.xls), God Shield Seiryu (http://www.pso-world.com/items.php?op=viewarticle&artid=529&sortby=class) and the Spiritual Shield (http://www.pso-world.com/items.php?op=viewarticle&artid=62&sortby=class).

The reason I need to know these is because I got an exercise book and listed all the itesm I want to find under headings like Katanas, Mechguns, Partisans, Swords, Saber, Units and Armour/Shields and these are the only items I dont have the drop rates for.
In this book the items are showns as Item Name, Difficulty, Area, Monsters to Kill, Drop rate, ID to use. Please present any answers as such so easier use.

Thanks,

EDIT: ...and S-Parts ver2.01 (http://www.pso-world.com/items.php?op=viewarticle&artid=506&sortby=class).



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Fanta on 2005-07-31 12:08 ]</font>

[Skorpius]

If you look on the page for God's Shield Seiryu, you'll notice this link (http://www.pso-world.com/sections.php?op=viewarticle&artid=331). Offline Challenge Mode prize.

[VioletSkye]

On 2005-07-31 11:39, Fanta wrote:
Right, this thread is for any questions on Drop Rates.
There are many drop rate charts out. I mainly use, Hard Drop Rates (http://faqs.ign.com/articles/497/497901p1.html), VH Drop Rates (http://faqs.ign.com/articles/401/401972p1.html), Ult Drop Rates (http://faqs.ign.com/articles/393/393635p1.html) and Tychos Drop Rates (http://romain.bernardi.free.fr/pso/droprates.xls) for my GC version of PSO.
I understand if this is a stupid thread but I think it could help.

Anyway down to business.
I need to know the drop rates (Difficulty, Area, Monster and ID to use) for the Celestial Shield (http://romain.bernardi.free.fr/pso/droprates.xls), God Shield Seiryu (http://www.pso-world.com/items.php?op=viewarticle&artid=529&sortby=class) and the Spiritual Shield (http://www.pso-world.com/items.php?op=viewarticle&artid=62&sortby=class).

The reason I need to know these is because I got an exercise book and listed all the itesm I want to find under headings like Katanas, Mechguns, Partisans, Swords, Saber, Units and Armour/Shields and these are the only items I dont have the drop rates for.
In this book the items are showns as Item Name, Difficulty, Area, Monsters to Kill, Drop rate, ID to use. Please present any answers as such so easier use.

Thanks,


God's Shield Seiryu doesn't drop, its one of the PRIZES (http://www.pso-world.com/sections.php?op=viewarticle&artid=331) for doing offline Challenge Mode

[Fanta]

Had a feeling that teh God Shield was a C-Mode prize.

What about the others?
and
Do you think this thread will be good to stop millions of threads about drop rates?

[VioletSkye]

The drop rates for the shields and armors can be found on this site already. For the level descriptions go HERE (http://www.pso-world.com/sections.php?op=viewarticle&artid=815)

Then for the drop rate for a particular level go HERE for REDRIA (http://www.pso-world.com/sections.php?op=viewarticle&artid=818), HERE for Pinkal (http://www.pso-world.com/sections.php?op=viewarticle&artid=817) and HERE for the rest of the IDs (http://www.pso-world.com/sections.php?op=viewarticle&artid=816)

Hope that helps http://pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_smile.gif

[Fanta]

Erm...not really.
Firstly, it confuses me anyway, what do the numbers mean.

Secondly, as an example, I am currently searching for the Agito 1975. In my book, I have it listed as so;

Name: Difficulty Area - Monster Drop Initial of ID

Agito 1975: Ult Forest - Tollaw 1/28,808 V

[VioletSkye]

check with Kef, I think he has some type of armor info spreadsheet with drop rates on it (I vaguely remember seeing it at some point http://pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_confused.gif )
Actually I'm thinking it just covered min and max def and evp numbers, but it wouldn't hurt to ask him http://pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: VioletSkye on 2005-07-31 12:43 ]</font>

[Fanta]

That should be helpful, Ill just PM him now!

[KageRyuushin]

On 2005-07-31 12:21, Fanta wrote:
Erm...not really.
Firstly, it confuses me anyway, what do the numbers mean.

Secondly, as an example, I am currently searching for the Agito 1975. In my book, I have it listed as so;

Name: Difficulty Area - Monster Drop Initial of ID

Agito 1975: Ult Forest - Tollaw 1/28,808 V




If you mean the 1/28808 thats the chance of that enemy dropping the item. Note: killing the enemy 28808 times doesnt mean it will drop.

[Tycho]

Fanta, VS is right, Kef's document only contains variable DFP/EVP. Kageryuunshin is right about the drop rates.

God shields are obtained in c-mode, S-Parts v2.01 drops only from Gillchics in Normal Mine at a rate of 1/10,640 in Viridia, Greenill, Skyly, Redria, Oran, and Whitill. All the other shields you mentioned are not rare shields, so you can just find them from blue boxes, or buy them in the shops, if you really want to.

[Hrith]

This? http://romain.bernardi.free.fr/pso/guardstats.html

Missing a few items, and Ep4 stuff >_>

[Delfi]

Hopefully this will clear up drop rate questions once and for all. If a drop rate says for example - Purplenum - Very hard - Gigue 1/46 - atrribute wall
----------------------------------------------------
This means that for every 46 gigues you kill with a purplenum character on very hard you will get a red box from the gigue - it will either be an attribute wall or a photon drop.

Heres a nice site i use all the time for drop rates very useful if you own a decent colour printer too.

http://www.ign.com - search for pso and then select faqs or tips it will give you the best drop charts around.

Good luck with finding items.

[PJ]

On 2005-08-01 06:14, Delfi wrote:
Hopefully this will clear up drop rate questions once and for all. If a drop rate says for example - Purplenum - Very hard - Gigue 1/46 - atrribute wall
----------------------------------------------------
This means that for every 46 gigues you kill with a purplenum character on very hard you will get a red box from the gigue - it will either be an attribute wall or a photon drop.

I think you just hurt my brain...

Sorry, 1/46 is a rate, not a set, "It will drop after this many times." Plus, Photon Drop is not part of that rate, it's not a rare drop just because it's in a Red box. It's a tool item, like a monomate, only rarer (And don't take that as me contradicting myself, it's still not a rare drop)

[Neith]

In your example, every Gi Gue killed has a 1/46 chance of dropping it's rare.

It doesn't mean you're guaranteed a rare after every 46.

Gi Gue#1: 1/46 chance
Gi Gue#2: 1/46 (not 2/46)

[Delfi]

Well it works for me that way.And if what you are saying is right then it would be near impossable to find certain things ie lavis 1/28807.

Im not saying that it would take 46 it could easily take 13 or 23 gigues - but for every 46 somewhere between number 1 and number 46 you shuold get either the drop or a photon drop.

I am a seasoned hunter and i hope this has been of help to some people.

[Fanta]

I know that it doesnt mean it WILL drop.

[Kaio666]

you could also kill 400 and not get the drop. generally for me too it falls within that range. but for example the rare lillies on ultimate redria have a 1/2 drop rate for dropping a demolition comet, it took me about 6 or 7 of the bastards to get it, and i didn't ever get pd'd by them.

[Fanta]

I usually find that divided the drop by 6 gives me the kills I need, but thats just me AND it doesnt always work. Only 1/3 of the time?

[Ryna]

With the way the stats work out, by the time you reach the drop rate limit (say you kill 46 Gi Gue for a 1/46 drop), you will have a 50% to 60% chance of obtaining the item.

[Dana]

On 2005-08-01 09:29, Ryna wrote:
With the way the stats work out, by the time you reach the drop rate limit (say you kill 46 Gi Gue for a 1/46 drop), you will have a 50% to 60% chance of obtaining the item.



through my experiences i alwas though the drops made sense

minus rare monster almost always dropping for my friends

i know my MUmbrella Hunt was way over

but nothing else seem off
i just believve, kill 1 1/200 enemy 200 times and you should have the drop

http://pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_frown.gif
not killa 1/80 enemy
1000's of time :'(

http://pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/anime1.gifslight over statement!

[KageRyuushin]

Well a good example I cound think of for the enemy not dropping its rare after killing it the number of times it says on the drop rate is when I tried to find a Star Amplifier with my Viridia from a Hidelt. The drop rate is 1/371 and I've done the Forest of Sorrow quest about 58 times. There are 16 Hidelts in that quest so I've killed around 928 and have still to get the rare item. Although I have gotten several photon drops

[Delfi]

Kage you have just proved one of my points that when you do kill the right amount of monsters you will either get the rare or a photon drop - in my experience if i am hunting something and i get a photon drop i just start cuonting from 0 again lol

The chances of getting the rare vs photon drop may be affected by how many hours your character has played - im not really sure.

[PJ]

Hours doesn't determine anything, Photon Drops aren't rare. Just because this person picked up Photon Drops from HIldelts doesn't make them a rare drop from Hildelts.

It's not a, "Or" situation. Monsters can drop either tools, nothing, or their set rare. Photon Drops fall under the tool category, in the same way monomates are.

[Hrith]

Delfi, you are absolutely mistaken, stop the bullshit now.

A Photon Drop is not a rare item, and has NOTHING to do with the 1/46 rare drop rate.

To explain a bit firther:
Gi Gue #1 = 1/46 of getting the rare
Gi Gue #2 = 1/46 of getting the rare
Gi Gue #3= 1/46 of getting the rare
Gi Gue #23 = 1/46 of getting the rare
Gi Gue #46 = 1/46 of getting the rare
Gi Gue #100 = 1/46 of getting the rare
Gi Gue #200 = 1/46 of getting the rare

You may kill 2 Gi Gue and get 2 rares, kill 2 Gi Gue and get 2 Photon Drops, or kill 100 Gi Gue and get nothing at all.

[Delfi]

No kef you are the mistaken one ..

According to your theory ...nothing wuold be found EVER and heres why..

1/2 =50% chance
1/4 =25% chance
1/5 =20% , 1/10 =10%, 1/20 =5%, 1/40 =2.5%, 1/46 =<2.5% - but its quite easy to find for something with a 2.5% chance

Spread needle 1/900 would equal an extreme improbability to find yet i have found 5 of these with the same character.

So now tell me im mistaken!!!!!

[Delfi]

Oh and for anyone wanting to test this theory take a purplenum online and do phantasmal world1 quest 4 times on very hard mode - and i bet you will find either 1 photon drop or 1 attribute wall from gigue.

http://pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/anime1.gif^ Solid Evidence My theory works http://pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/anime1.gif^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

[Fanta]

He means the % doesnt raise so you WILL find it after X amount of kills.

[Ryna]

On 2005-08-01 12:53, Delfi wrote:
No kef you are the mistaken one ..


Unfortunately, you are wrong about this.

In Kef's example, each Gi Gue you kill offers a 1/46 chance of dropping the rare item. However, the more Gi Gues you kill, the greater your chance will be of finding the rare item. It is simple statistics.

I would suggest that you look at this thread to understand the math involved:
http://www.pso-world.com/viewtopic.php?topic=93211&forum=7

[Fanta]

Thats a pretty good guide and I actually understood it. Just not its posts after it.

[Hrith]

On 2005-08-01 12:53, Delfi wrote:
So now tell me im mistakenYou are, incredibly.

[Tycho]

Delfi, I highly recommend you to Google 'probability' or something. While you're at it, Google 'proof', because you cannot prove something like this by killing a handful of Del-Ds.



On 2005-08-01 09:29, Ryna wrote:
By the time you reach the drop rate limit, you will have a 50% to 60% chance of obtaining the item.


I recall it was closer to 63%?

[Fanta]

On 2005-08-01 19:28, Tycho wrote:
Delfi, I highly recommend you to Google 'probability' or something. While you're at it, Google 'proof', because you cannot prove something like this by killing a handful of Del-Ds.



On 2005-08-01 09:29, Ryna wrote:
By the time you reach the drop rate limit, you will have a 50% to 60% chance of obtaining the item.


I recall it was closer to 63%?




What do you mean?
You mean that once you reach the drop it becomes easier to find?

Agito 1975 for example, after 28,808 kills if you havent found it you gain a bonus to finding it?

[KageRyuushin]

On 2005-08-01 13:01, Ryna wrote:


On 2005-08-01 12:53, Delfi wrote:
No kef you are the mistaken one ..


Unfortunately, you are wrong about this.

In Kef's example, each Gi Gue you kill offers a 1/46 chance of dropping the rare item. However, the more Gi Gues you kill, the greater your chance will be of finding the rare item. It is simple statistics.

I would suggest that you look at this thread to understand the math involved:
http://www.pso-world.com/viewtopic.php?topic=93211&forum=7



HA I understood that guide http://pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif. Looks like I would have to do the Forest of Sorrow quest about 107 times in total to get the item with a 99% chance http://pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_razz.gif

[Cynric]

On 2005-08-01 19:49, Fanta wrote:

What do you mean?
You mean that once you reach the drop it becomes easier to find?

Agito 1975 for example, after 28,808 kills if you havent found it you gain a bonus to finding it?


No, it means you will have a 63% chance of finding the rare if you kill that many monsters.

Like your Agito example. It's 1/28,808. You'll have a 63% chance of finding the rare overall if you only kill 28,808. Killing more than that increases your chances. It's like rolling a 29,000-sided die over and over again to make it land on '1'.

[Fanta]

Ahh. I get what you mean now.
Thats because each kills is worth X% and it adds up after each kill. It still doesnt mean you have 63% chance of finding the item, or does it...? http://pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_razz.gif

[Tycho]

On 2005-08-01 22:36, Fanta wrote:
Ahh. I get what you mean now.
Thats because each kills is worth X% and it adds up after each kill. It still doesnt mean you have 63% chance of finding the item, or does it...? http://pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_razz.gif


Not for a single kill, no. Finding a rare does not become easier over time.

[Bishop711]

Say the odds of finding something is 1/6.
Each enemy you kill gives you a 1/6 chance which does not change.
The more you kill the better chance you have overall.
In this case its like rolling a regular 6 sided die and getting it to land on 1. For each kill you roll the die once.
It is possible to roll the die 6 times and have it not land on 1. Actually it is 1-(5/6)^6= 66.5% chance you will land on 1 in 6 tries.
Say you fail to land on 1 in 5 tries. Does that mean you have a higher chance to get 1 the next try? no, you still have 1/6 chance.
I dont know if this makes any sense to you.

But to figure out the odds after killing x amount of enemies, just use that formula.

for 1/x:
1-((x-1)/x)^number of enemies killed.

[Fanta]

That is correct and no it doesnt mean you have a higher chance.

Erm...if your looking for something and you have 1 chance to get it it a chance of say 50/50, you may not get it. If you have 2 goes at 50/50 you have a higher chance, and even higher at 3 goes. Obviously we are talking bigger numbers though.

[Dana]

arg

i am confused

....i always thought that was the whole idea behind a 1/28808 drop..

thats the average

but if you kill 28K it's only a 6x% chance, wouldn't that makew the average more like 40K

ahh, i need clarity

*cry*

and if that is so, then ¬_¬
doesn't it make all items rarer than i though:P

[Fanta]

40k kills is pretty hefty but if you consider that mnay people play through forest or whatever god know show many times to Lv there characteras they get to ult (I know I did when I was stuck on mines) then the kills add up. Ive started an Agito 1975 hunt and only have 132 kills (not played much) but I know have have loads more from previous forest runs etc.

[Dana]

still ;_;

thats way too many surly...that 2000+ laps

it just seems, hard to believe

(now thinking about it.....thats doesn't seem to bad on low drops*kicks Deldoggy...Gib madams umbrella too late .....hate j00...*cuddles...http://pso-world.com/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/anime1.gif i did drops)

but i mean
it just sounds too high

..more so when looking at peoples drops

[Bishop711]

if you kill the exact odds its about 63% so more than not you will find the item however it could take much more if you are unlucky.

to have about 95% chance youll have to kill 3x the odds.

Just have to hope you dont get unlucky if youre looking for an ultra rare like 1/28000.

[Fanta]

It could take a million kills befor eyou find it if your unlucky. The % will go so narrow (99.999999999999999999999999999999 etc), but there is still the fact that the drop is 1/28,808, meaning it still might not drop.

[Tycho]

On 2005-08-02 14:31, Dana_ranger wrote:
but if you kill 28K it's only a 6x% chance, wouldn't that makew the average more like 40K


... No, that isn't it at all. After 28.8K Tollaws you'd have a 63% chance, after twice as many Tollaws a 86% chance, but you won't reach 100% until you killed infinite Tollaws (that's a lot). So it doesn't add up that way, you cannot conclude the average is actually worse.
You'll be more likely to get at least one red box if you kill a million Tollaws than if you kill only a single one. Is it that hard to understand? <_<;

[Fanta]

On 2005-08-02 17:31, Tycho wrote:

You'll be more likely to get at least one red box if you kill a million Tollaws than if you kill only a single one. Is it that hard to understand? <_<;




Thats what Im starting to think.
I need a decent calculator to work out the % from the equations that are posted.

[biggabertha]

The dice theory is the best way to explain the drops in PSO.

If there was a fair dice with 21 or 22 sides to it, pick a number from 1-21/22 and roll the dice until you get that number. (I picked 1 on a 20 sided dice and rolled it 57 times before I got a 1....)

Of course, this is the rare monster drop rate (Angel Harp, Lavis Cannon, Syncesta, Magic Rock "Irista" and Agito 1975 but to name a few) so if you had a 300,000 sided dice for skyly's Psycho Wand, think how many times you would have to roll the dice for the number you picked... Trust me, it's not pretty...

I can talk from personal experience, I've done 1900 Mop Up 3 runs with my Purplenum HUmar looking for Yasminkov 9000M since Easter this year and I've STILL NOT GOT ONE! The drop rate is 1/900 or 1/901 from a Canune and I've gone over double the rate (1800 or 1802) and the next Canune I kill, is still going to be a 1/900 or 1/901 drop...

*sigh*

[Dana]

@tycho-no, i knew that, i understand it, i just don't like it, hehe, doesn't effect anything....nothings changed just my perseption!

[Delfi]

Hey biggabertha if you have a purplenum then wouldnt it be easier and faster to do normal temple runs for the yas9000 ?? 1/788 from crimson assassin (aprrx.14 per offline run alpha and beta).

[Tycho]

On 2005-08-03 03:40, Delfi wrote:
Hey biggabertha if you have a purplenum then wouldnt it be easier and faster to do normal temple runs for the yas9000 ?? 1/788 from crimson assassin (aprrx.14 per offline run alpha and beta).


Not if you want one with hit.
To whoever asked for the calculations, it's '1 - .37^x', where x would equal 1 if you killed 28.8K Tollaws, 2 if you killed 57.6K Tollaws, etcetera. Any calculator that supports functions and graphs should do to give you a decent idea of the distribution probabilities.

[Delfi]

Okkk then..

I did some working out things according to the formula that bishop posted and here are my findings.

I shall start buy explaining what 1set is 1set is the drop rate.For example pinkal id finds agito 1975 with a 1/22 drop rate on pal rappies, so 1set is 22 pal rappies in this example.

So here goes..

After killing 1set you have a 64% chance of the rare
After killing 2set you have a 87% chance
After killing 3set you have a 95% chance
After killing 4set you have a 98% chance
After killing 4set+1/3rd of a set u have a 100%chance

Which means in terms of the agito1975 and pal rappies if you are very unlucky then you WILL get it after killing 96 of them according to the formula.
Which isnt too bad....but...If the drop rate is 1/28807 then things get slightly crazy with
4set+1/3rd of a set equalling...124,830 tollaws.

I hope this of some help to you all and that you dont all tell me im wrong again..... lol

[Neith]

Could you explain this then? This confused me.


Which means in terms of the agito1975 and pal rappies 'unless?' you are very unlucky then you WILL get it

If you did mean to say that, or something along those lines, then you still say 'unless you are very unlucky'. How can it be a 100% chance of having an item if you're saying that?

Sorry if I misunderstood your post, that's how I took it.

The thing is, even after something stupid like 10000 Pal Rappies, there's still a possibility you won't have an Agito drop. Admittedly, this would be an INCREDIBLY small chance of not having one, but is is possible.

Even for a 1/64 drop, you could kill a million of that monster and not get the drop.

Every monster you kill, the drop rate stays the same. The chances of getting the item are obviously higher after 1000 kills, rather than 2, but the actual chance of a drop per kill remains the same.

[Longtime_play]

nice work delfi, its depressed me even more, but its still good work.

2000 runs for my milla +
12000 runs for my guld
----------------------
A LIFETIME
----------------------

[Fanta]

On 2005-08-03 04:50, Tycho wrote:
To whoever asked for the calculations, it's '1 - .37^x', where x would equal 1 if you killed 28.8K Tollaws, 2 if you killed 57.6K Tollaws, etcetera. Any calculator that supports functions and graphs should do to give you a decent idea of the distribution probabilities.


Thanks, I imagine that Excel would be able to do the function?




On 2005-08-03 06:33, UrikoBB3 wrote:
Could you explain this then? This confused me.


Which means in terms of the agito1975 and pal rappies 'unless?' you are very unlucky then you WILL get it

If you did mean to say that, or something along those lines, then you still say 'unless you are very unlucky'. How can it be a 100% chance of having an item if you're saying that?

Sorry if I misunderstood your post, that's how I took it.

Even for a 1/64 drop, you could kill a million of that monster and not get the drop.

Every monster you kill, the drop rate stays the same. The chances of getting the item are obviously higher after 1000 kills, rather than 2, but the actual chance of a drop per kill remains the same.



You miss understood, in his quotation he put 'unless?' you are very unlucky, but I still agree with you.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Fanta on 2005-08-03 06:45 ]</font>

[Delfi]

All i have done is worked things out according to the formula - for example if we take the drop rate as being 1/22 and you work it out like this..
X=drop rate --- Y=number of monsters killed.
X=22 Y=22 Results 64% chance
X=22 Y=44 Results 87% chance
X=22 Y=66 Results 95% chance
X=22 Y=88 Results 98% chance
X=22 Y=96 Results 100% chance.

Now what i meant to say is..If you are very unlucky then you will have to kill 96 ((Y=96)) monsters for that drop where the drop rste is 1/22. If you are lucky then you will get it at Y=22 64% or Y=44 87%

96 monsters doesnt seem so bad but what if that is 1/201 drop rate suddenly the Y values are this..

X=201 Y=201=64% chance
X=201 Y=402=87% chance
X=201 Y=603=95% chance
X=201 Y=804=98% Chance
X=201 Y=905=100% chance.

I hope that explains things better for you.

[Fanta]

Could you work out the thing for Agito 1975 from a Viridia Tallow. Drop is 1/28,808.

Also, you are incorrect about the last bit, they result will never reach 100%, its just that the decimal gets so small you might as well round it up to 100%, is that you you put 100%?

[Delfi]

Yes fanta you are right - but unfortunately my calculator isnt very good lol.

Its this simple - fanta just start off with the drop rate being 1set.In other words Tollaw for viridia 1set=28,807 because the drop rate is (1/28,807)
2set=2x28,807 or 57,614.
3set=3x28,807 and so on But because its a formula it doesnt matter what the drop rate is because the results are always the same for ALL drop rates.

So for 1set or 28807 its 64% chance
for 2set or 57414 its 87%
and so on Its ALWAYS THE SAME !!

[Fanta]

I ment they numbers, but Ill work it out myself now.

Thanks,