Just how random is it?

[FayteEternal]

Hmm ok..
I posted in the rare findings thread the other day about how I found a Caduceus from a 2nd Mil Lilly after only having done 2 Addicting Foods quest. I never bothered to include that a Nano Dragon had dropped a Red Scorpio during that 2nd run.
Now tonight a Nano Dragon dropped another Red Scorpio and I know for damn sure I havent killed 573 of those things within a 48 hour time span.
This has brought me to ask just how random is it?
I mean 2 rare mobs back-to-back, 1 of which drops the item. Fine, Mil Lilly's have a 50% chance of dropping Sange for Yellowboze Ultimate yeah? No big deal but to see 2 rare mobs (No piping) in 2 quests and now a second instance with a drop I'm not suppose to see another one until 573 Nano Dragon's later?
I don't suppose I might see a Heaven Punisher before I kill 190,000 Crimson Assassins?

[Dhylec]

You can get the item the first kill you make or the 1000th kill. It's all about luck, your own luck.

The drop rates are just a way to estimate the chances the items drop. They are never the rules for the drops. Don't take them too seriously.

[GrumblyStuff]

Don't look at the drops (say 1/573 from Nano Dragons) and think you have to kill 573 for each drop. 1/573 is simply nicer to look at than 1.7~%.

(HP from Assassins would be 5.3%*10^-6 or, if I'm not bungling up my high school math, 0.0000053% chance per CA.)

[Zarbolord]

It's probablilty (I hate maths), it's just a chance , you might try all the time and never get it, since it resets the same chance at every kill you make, try it out by flipping a coin or rolling a dice, but each time you roll or throw you don't take away a side from the dice or coin, it's still there, the the probability resets.

[Neith]

1st Nano Dragon kill: 1/573
2nd Nano Dragon: 1/573
3rd Nano Dragon: 1/573

It will ALWAYS be the same rate, but obviously, as you kill more, there's a greater chance of a potential drop.

[Eihwaz]

Uriko's got it right. Each individual enemy has the same drop rate, but as you kill more, logic dictates that you are more likely to get one.

[-Crokar-]

feel like sometime i have a 1/25 chance of getting final impacts from i think bartles. i get 2 to 3 of them per forest run

[GrumblyStuff]

On 2006-04-15 09:40, Eihwaz wrote:
Uriko's got it right. Each individual enemy has the same drop rate, but as you kill more, logic dictates that you are more likely to get one.
Well, no. You get more chances at getting it but you don't get better chances at getting it.