How Drop Rates Work

[sCI]

Ok, I'm gettin tired of people asking about how they can't find a certain weapon because they've done the run a million times, here is simple-to-understand instructions of how drop rates usually(that I know of) work.

First, let us take an example, such as, the Sealed J-Sword off of the GC verson of PSO. It is found only by Skyly in this version, and the drop rates is 1/12,603 from a Gi-Gue in Ult Central Control EP 2.

Ok, here we go, now most people assume that that means one of these common explanations
A)You have to kill 12,603 to find one at the end(the 12,603 kill).

B)If you kill 12,603 you'll only find one of them the entire time of between the first kill, and the 12,603 kill.

[b]BOTH OF THOSE ARE WRONG!!!

Here is the real way it works.
Here is an example.
The drop rate is 1/12,603. Every time you kill a Gi-Gue, the game throws an imaginary die, (the little 6-sided cubes), only the imaginary one the game throws has 12,603 sides, instead of 6, and so, every time you kill a Gi-Gue, the game throws this imaginary 12,603-sided die, and if it lands on "1", it is your lucky day, and you just got that drop. There is NO counter involved of any sort, so it does not matter the exact number of enemies killed, it is strictly chance, luck, and so-on.

You may search for a weapon with lets say a 1/100 drop rate;you may look for this weapon by killing 1,000,000 of these monsters and not find a single one of the drops, but after the 1,000,000th monster, find the drop from the next 1,000 monsters IN A ROW.

It is ALL chance, PERIOD.

Thank you very much.

[Pirox-Hunter]

MMM... now wich you say, a think thats true

[Lex_54]

could you explain this better:

but after the 1,000,000th monster, find the drop from the next 1,000 monsters IN A ROW.

[AlexCraig]

It is a random occurrence, usually 1/XXXXXX. It does not mean you will find one in every X ammount of tries/monsters. Those are just your odds of finding it. Simple as that.

[Splash]

On 2008-01-29 16:20, Lex_54 wrote:
could you explain this better: but after the 1,000,000th monster, find the drop from the next 1,000 monsters IN A ROW.

In other words, after killing 1 million monsters, you still wouldn't be able to find it. The only way for it to actually drop is to keep killing the monster that drops it. It can drop 1,000 of that monster later or it can drop after another 1 million monsters killed. It's based on luck.

It is a random occurrence, usually 1/XXXXXX. It does not mean you will find one in every X ammount of tries/monsters. Those are just your odds of finding it. Simple as that.

You aren't getting it either. It's not "odds".

All drop rates are probabilities. And again, the simulation of this would be throwing a die with the number of sides for the drop rate. If it lands the magic number "1", it means you get it. All else means the exact rare won't drop.

[Haze87]

I Know how it works if you are looking for a rare item just keep killing them until you find it, you can find it on the first monster you kill or the next thousands you kill it is completely random when it shows up so you just have to keep looking, Me myself often find redboxes when Im not looking for them

[Jaspaller]

Dice roll example

/thread

[MUDGRIP]

i always thought it had to with rumble warlock carbines/oddballAlldayOnalldaY_gov

[sCI]

What I meant was that you may kill 1 million enemies in a row, and not find the rare, but the next thousand enemies in a row AFTER the million you already killed may drop the weapon every time for all of the thousand monsters killed, it is near impossible, but when dealing with total uncontrolable odds or probabilities, anything is technically and numerically possible.

[DC_PLAYER]

1/2 drop rate, 50 % chance, you can either get the item 10 tims in a row or you can kill the enemy 10 times that you won't get it.
it's like fliping a coin, each time you flip it theres a new chance of getting the item.