I expect it aswell and so do probably half the people i know in pso2 xD
I know the odds are low for it working and, to be honest, i didnt expect it to work first time but at the same time, i didnt expect that. just to get to 5 slots the first time i had 5 single 90% fails and 2 double 90% fails so that was a real kick in the teeth -.-;
That's only one particular case though, not taking into account the other 3 slots that have to pass and the many different ways you can fail. Giga's statement is correct according to my math. The odds of failing 3 more in this scenario are 4.734%.
Edit: Dang, beaten by Giga himself.
.15 ^ 3 is .00375
Ability affixing is a series of independent probabilities like rolling a dice. If you roll six dice, the odds that three of them land on one is (1/6 ^ 3), not (1 - (5/6 ^ 3)).
The odds of those specific 3 failing are .15*3, but you also have to account for the other 3 succeeding which is .15^3*.85^3.
Now you have to consider that those other three may have failed instead, so you have to double that number.
Now you have to consider that any mixture of the first 3 and the second 3 may have failed, which is 20 total combinations.
.15^3*.85^3*20=.041453...=4.15%
And since I said 3 or more you add the odds of 4/6 failing, 5/6 failing, and 6/6 failing with the same process.
Factorials are fun.
I'm glad I'm not the only one going through this. /la cry.
During the Falz Elder event I manage to find two PWands. Twas my first 12* since closed beta and Sega gave me two of them in one run(2 of the 3 characters)! With 12* passes right around the corner I decided the best choice would be to prepare the both of them for day one 12* buy/sell from the player shop.
Well... Dudu said hell no to that shit and trolled me at 5s over 20 times in a row. 1 out of the 6 abilities failed 20 times in a row. After that he put me down to 2s and I could never get back to base 5. I spent 6.6mil trying to pull this shit off and waste tons of excubes and other resources. I fucking give up.
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