Originally Posted by
UnLucky
With 50% crit rate, the probability of getting at least a certain amount of crits out of seven total hits is as follows:
1+: 99.2%
2+: 93.8%
3+: 77.3%
4+: 50%
5+: 22.7%
6+: 6.3%
7 : 0.8%
Which is a reliable damage increase of:
1/7 crits: 2.13%
2/7 crits: 4.02%
3/7 crits: 4.97%
4/7 crits: 4.29%
5/7 crits: 2.43%
6/7 crits: 0.80%
7/7 crits: 0.12%
As in, taking the probability of at least N crits, averaging out the benefit of 15% crit damage for exactly N crits over the 7 hits.
If that's hard to digest, consider the odds of getting at least 1 crit out of 7 hits. It's the same as flipping a coin 7 times and hoping to get anything except seven tails. 50% chance for the first coin to be tails, 50% chance for the second coin to be tails, etc for (0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5)=0.78% chance of failure. Which means the chance of success is (100-0.78125)=99.22%
That means at least one of your hits dealt 115% damage, and the other 6 could be anything from 95-115%. For simplicity's sake and to account for the lowest possible damage increase from the new skill, consider non-crits to be 100% damage. So (115+100+100+100+100+100+100)/7=102.14% as your average damage with only one crit out of seven. Two crits would be 104.29%, three 106.43%, all the way up to 115% for all seven.
So you have a 99.22% chance to get at least one crit to deal at least 2.14% more damage, for 2.13% on average.
Just like you have a 0.78% chance to get all seven crits for 15% more damage, for 0.12% on average.
---[/math]
In all likelihood, Critical Strike would give you about 4-5% higher minimum damage.
Considering it costs 15 SP (including Brave Crit) that's pretty bad. But then just look at PP Slayer which costs 19 SP for ~10% conditional damage and you realize Fighter's tree is a goddamn mess.
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