Full protects have yet to really pay off for me outside of one 10*. Failing 8 of them in a row is just absurdly depressing. Considering the grind reduction now, I only bother with -1's at 8-10.
Full protects have yet to really pay off for me outside of one 10*. Failing 8 of them in a row is just absurdly depressing. Considering the grind reduction now, I only bother with -1's at 8-10.
Full protects will never be cost effective, due to people wanting to sell them to get the most meseta or their real cash and due to the plain math of their use (People who use them will not ONLY use them when the grind would have failed - they will use them for EVERY attempt. This makes it impossible for them to be worth it for an average grind.) The people using them will also value the security more than the meseta they spend, meaning they'll use them even when they're far from cost effective.
Which is the point. You pay a premium to have "security," but that security isn't the issue with grinding. Nobody REALLY gets upset when they fail their first +9, if the average success rate is 20%. The fact that you're never guaranteed success is the issue with grinding, when you can exceed the average by a factor of ten and still be staring at 20% odds for every next try. That's what's bullshit.
Which is the point. You pay a premium to have "security," but that security isn't the issue with grinding. Nobody REALLY gets upset when they fail their first +9, if the average success rate is 20%. The fact that you're never guaranteed success is the issue with grinding, when you can exceed the average by a factor of ten and still be staring at 20% odds for every next try. That's what's bullshit.[/QUOTE]
Thats exactly the problem. Imo sega just wants an effective cash sink system, and thats great and all. But it would be better if they had alot of them instead of one big bullshit one. Right now it just feels like it's harder to grind a 10 than it is to find one. I dont even wanna know howhard it'll be to grind a 11 or 12 or 13+* wep. And to make it worse the potentials are really amazing for some weps and you gotta go through the cycle multiple times if you want your wep to be "completed".
Ive seen 2 people with a potentialed psycho wand, 4 with potentialed fal claws. I can only imagine what that costs.
Credit to MissMalice for the sig.
Hunter: 65 Fighter: 65
Retired Classes: Ranger: 40 Gunner: 40
Force: 40 Techer: 40
0 on everything else.
Using % success boosters is a good idea...
I have about 30 million meseta and only grind gear I really want to +10. 9* and lower I just brute force to 10 usually unless I have some 5% boosters laying around. then I'll used them to go from 9 to 10 on a 9*. 10* I force to 8 and then use full protects. the most I've had to use this way is 5 and that was bad. I know it can be way worse for some and I hope it never happens to me.
Anyway protects are really just to keep from pulling your hair out and spending hours/days trying to grind the things. certainly not cost effective but definitely better for your hairline if you have the money to spend.
Considering full protects are around 1.1mil and up and grinders are now about 7k, essentially it's guaranteed no penalty versus roughly 55 grind attempts. Uh yea, the latter sounds a lot better.
Also, % boosters take away from -0 penalty, so aside from maybe +9 (which is roughly 30% base), I don't think % boosters are cost effective at all either...
Looks like I have some 'splaining to do.
Grinders are about 7.9k as I'm writing this now. Two grinders to grind a 10*, plus Dudu's 5k expense , and that comes to just shy of 21k per attempt. I am too lazy to look up a full protect right now, so I will use Soultrigger's number and say it's 1.1m. So, let's paint the picture. We're at Dudu's with a +9 10*, ready to roll the dice and take it to +10. At a 20% chance, we, unsurprisingly, fail. We weren't using a full protect, so, we suffer a penalty. Let's start off with -1.
So, now our 10* is at +8. Okay, so to get to +10, you have to get to +9, which is 20%, then to +10, which is 20%. So, the overall chance of success here is 4%, i.e, 1 in 25. 25 attempts comes to about 525k, which is indeed cheaper than a full protect.
So, let's rewind and say the penalty was -2. So, the 10* is at +7. 7 to 8 is 20%, 8 to 9 is 20%, and 9 to 10 is 20%, so, altogether, the chance of success here is .8%, ie, 1 in 125. That comes to around 2.6m. That is not cheaper than a full protect.
I don't think the -3 scenario needs exact numbers to make my case, but just for some depressingly soul crushing numbers, let's see how that works out. 30%, 20%, 20% and 20%, mix them all together and we get .24%. That's 1 in 417, about. 417 runs through from +6 to +9 will cost us nearly 9m. That is definitely not cheaper than a full protect.
Now, let me pause to say that this is from a law of large numbers perspective; you could absolutely get lucky and go from 0 to 10 on your first try without a single failure. If you go that route, I sincerely bid you godspeed and will not begrudge you if you win out. I'm assessing the decision to use full protects from a macro perspective, i.e, what statistics say I should expect. And what it says is that in the scenario I only lose 1 grind or don't even lose any grinds (or hell, in the scenario you succeed) going from 9 to 10, I lose money on that protect. Losing 2 or 3, however, I save money. Lots of it.
Now, in doing this, I purposely omitted a consideration because it makes the math way too unwieldy at this ungodly hour: the fact that there's absolutely nothing that says you can't fail twice in a row, and at that level of grind, you're probably going to fail twice in a row and lose even more grinds, giving you even more probability hurdles to leap over. That just further compounds the potential costs of not using a protect. I'm aware there's some controversy over the percentages I used. Substitute them for whatever values you (reasonably) prefer. The numbers don't change appreciably.
PS: The author makes no claims that the math above is ironclad and will not raise a hissy fit if it is challenged.
I stopped using full protects simply because I fell into the scenario of failing way too many times with them to give a shit about getting back up to 7 or 8 and just using 5% + -1. The system can fluxuate so badly that one method or the other may or may not work out better and I feel a little more comfortable spending less per attempt at a risk of penalty.
This is the best solution in my opinion.Originally Posted by MetalDude
I don't get much to +10, but I'm still better off without brute forcing. Things happen in streaks to me, I'd either get a success streak, and then the first fail usually doesn't decrease my grind at all. Should I continue however, it only gets worse from then on, I just stop and try later. Took a while getting my Ishurais to +10, with it not budging from +5 with failed first attempts each grind session of which I just stopped right there. Then one day, RNG smiled on me and went straight to +10 in one go.
If I had to estimate, I spent about 50 or so grinders doing that, and this was before the grinder nerf.
I have not yet gotten any 10* to +10 yet, highest I got was Elder Rod at +8, but I got greedy and ended up dropping to +2 in the streak afterwards. I did not lose any grind in the first fail, I just couldn't resist my "almost there" temptation and ended up losing it all.
Last edited by Daiyousei; Feb 6, 2013 at 08:55 AM.
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