Item Grinding campaign and Password Change campaign (May 22nd)

[Gigafreak]

http://pso2.jp/players/news/?id=1467
Success rates on all Grinders used until May 29th will be increased by 5%. (Elemental-Synthesizers and Ability-Adding are not affected.)

http://pso2.jp/players/news/?id=1452
Once servers are back up from today's maintenance, change your password at least once between then and June 5th to receive a My Room 3-Day pass and a Rappy decoration for said room.



....Figures they'd briefly raise grind rates right after I grind two 10* weapons to +10... Dudu manages to mock me even in his generosity.

[UnLucky]

Oh man! I totally need another My Room pass! I only have 8 left in my storage now!

[Xaeris]

I forsee the price of grind protects rising significantly for the upcoming week.

[UnLucky]

But grinds will be so easy you won't even need em~!

[Walkure]

I forsee the price of grind protects rising significantly for the upcoming week.

Maybe. Uptick in demand for grinding but less reason to use them.

Using these assumptions:

Spoiler!

I didn't change the failure distribution in "assumed rates" since I mostly look for the proportions of failure penalties anyways.

Gives:

So, using a (+1) reduction ticket is optimal at +8 and +9 only, a change from +7 and above under normal rates.

Also, the average cost of +0 -> +10 using optimal methods is, for now, less than a mil in total costs, which is pretty redonkulous.

[UnLucky]

Now if only that Umbra EQ would pop up so I could run it a million times and not get an Umblla stick to still fail to grind it to +10!

[Lebensohl]

And I just grinded my cannon legacy. Oh well, I have 3 more unlocks to go!

[Walkure]

Hell, not even using optimal budgeting and just bumrushing to +10 with no support items, the average cost of grinding something is 1.4m, which about the same as grinding with support items prepatch.

Might as well grind up the weapons that I've been holding onto for RA and FO. I've got ragne launcher, and falz AR/Rod which I've been wanting to use because they're free and also purple. Good time to put a dent in the 1800 grinders I've been holding onto.

[Zyrusticae]

lol, okay, so 7->10 on a 10* is now 25% per grind instead of 20%. That's still a 0.39% chance of getting through without a failure versus the rather more ludicrous 0.16% chance it is normally.

Fuck, these grinding rates are ridiculous. Under no circumstances should the success rate ever fall below 50%. Give me a fucking break!

[Walkure]

Erm, what?

Even if you were assuming that success rates are 20% and 25% for attempting on a +7, +8, +9 starting weapon (they're only that low for +9) the overall success rate would still be (20%)^3=.8%, and (25%)^3=1.56% for going +7 -> +10 with 0 failures.

Data collected on this JP site shows 36%, 32%, and 22% for +7, +8, and +9 starting values, which gives a rate of (36%)(32%)(22%)=2.5% chance of succeeding with zero failures. With these changes, it would be (41%)(37%)(27%)=4.09%.

Next best source is the grinding thread here, which has rates above 30% for each of those points. Yeah, the overall chance is low, but thanks to the absolutely cratering price of grinders, so is the cost of attempting a grind.