Possible Drop Rate for Dark Falz 11* Weapons [THEORY]

[Zalana]

It's hard to say what the rates are considering this game is using a very flawed RNG. It's pretty much all or nothing. It wouldn't surprise me if they just reused PSO DC's RNG for this game.

I wouldn't go as far as saying that but, yes it does need some improvement. Stuff is actually findable here at least compared to PSODC.

[Z-0]

You can't really grab drop rates from the Quest Records unless non-rares are completely separate from rares, as the Quest Records cannot show very many items.

[jooozek]

I wouldn't go as far as saying that but, yes it does need some improvement. Stuff is actually findable here at least compared to PSODC.

right, because we are still in 2000

[Meji]

You can't really grab drop rates from the Quest Records unless non-rares are completely separate from rares, as the Quest Records cannot show very many items.

I believe the full list is shown on Elder though. As far as I know, no items are "cut off" due to the limit.

[gigawuts]

In my opinion, the "Lucky Rise" part shouldn't be separated and should be added to the 350% boosters to make it a 380% overall boost. I don't think it comes on top of the rest, it's not a different boost than the Drop Boost +250% item.
This would make a rate = 0.02 + 0.02 * 3.8 = 0.096.

This depends on how they work the math.

I actually question if it even influences rares. The same way untekked boosts merely boost the proportion of rares you find that are untekked, Lucky Rise may merely boost all non-rare items. It wouldn't be the first time Sega misled us with poor wording, intentional or otherwise.

But conspiracy theory aside, based on the wording alone it seems to describe a boost to item droprate. Let's just assume it does boost rares. That's 1.3x everything. For the case of boss crystals, there is a set minimum of items based on parts you've broken and points you've accrued via kills in a quest (falz works differently, arms seem to count as "kills," boosting the main falz drops but also adding their own drops). Why is this significant? Well, these drops will always appear, but they still may not actually be items. A boss crystal will roll to determine if you get an item. If yes it determines what kind. If no it just drops meseta.

Meaning the 30% boost may overwrite some of the meseta. Okay.

These extra 30% drops (on average, this is all chance) would have an equal probability of being rares as the other ordinary non-luckyrise drops.

Everything I've posted here is all stuff I've found either on JP sites myself that I consider credible, or have seen reposted from them by people here who I consider credible, but have not tested or determined myself. I don't think anyone can test or confirm this, given the random nature of drops and such, unless segments of the code are in the client. Either way, this is the most sensible analysis of the bonuses and such that I've found, and it seems to fall in line with my experience with some pretty extensive hunting (lolgwanas). For what boosts kills in falz missions specifically I cannot say, the arms boosting kill count is complete conjecture on my part.

But yes, all that breaks down to tl;dr: 1.3x lucky rise should be separate and counted as a multiplier to the 350% boost by nature of additional drops given the rare boost, not added to it as a higher rare boost.

edit: And I want to add that untekked rares almost definitely do not count in the rare item listing, as "tested" when some guy around here saw a friend find a boxed psycho wand. The number of psycho wands on the quest item list did not increase the next day, or at all during the following week.

[Meji]

Meaning the 30% boost may overwrite some of the meseta. Okay.

This is pretty much how I believe it to be as well, yeah. enemies don't drop more stuff, just more... items?

[gigawuts]

Check the edit to that post, you may find it significant for this.

[Z-0]

I believe the full list is shown on Elder though. As far as I know, no items are "cut off" due to the limit.

Nope, items are "cut off". The "rares" are not, but "non-rares" are listed in the Quest Records too. That is why I asked about non-rares being completely separate from rares (I have no idea how this drop system works...). If they are, I suppose you could calculate them.

If you look at the graph, the percentages include under 7* items in the calculation too, and since items are definitely cut off due to much more than 30 different items dropping, this is somewhat skewed (which means the drop rates are most likely different from calculated by a fair margin. I do understand this is an approximate).

[Meji]

Check the edit to that post, you may find it significant for this.

I had totally forgotten all about this. Putting it on the first page with the other theories.
If this is true, odds for rares are even greater. It would be odd if these things would not show up on the Drop List after they've been tekked though, but I honestly have no clue.

@Matt:
You're right, looked up the items, and quite a few are missing from the low-star items he should be able to drop.
I doubt the calculated % of the 11*'s would be greatly affected by this, but it will surely bring the whole sum down by a few decimals. Added info about it to the first page.

[gigawuts]

Well, odds relative to 6*'s and such. Since we can't pull the rate for 6*'s we have to do what I did for gwanas way back: Compare droprates of very common rares dropped by the same enemy that we've found a whole lot of. Then compare the proportions and other math magics.

So, anyone find a few thousand adamans? Happen to take note of every single other rare you've found? Now's your time to shine...