PSO2-Team planning to add new weapon grinding requirement to Expert block...

[Kondibon]

Law of large numbers. Given infinite resources, any non-zero% recipe will eventually succeed.

That's not what the law of large numbers means. It means that they'd average out over a long enough period. :/ That's not even what I'm talking about. Who cares what the average is, there's no way to actually tell with 100% certainty if your NEXT result is going to fail or succeed. The thing you're talking about is the gambler's fallacy.

[Selphea]

That's not what the law of large numbers means. It means that they'd average out over a long enough period. :/ That's not even what I'm talking about. Who cares what the average is, there's no way to actually tell with 100% certainty if your NEXT result is going to fail or succeed. The thing you're talking about is the gambler's fallacy.

Gambler's Fallacy is used to describe either:

A) the base chance of success is different from the believed chance of success
B) failure will directly affect the success of an independent event

Neither of which really apply to brute forcing an affix with a fixed chance of success.

Law of large numbers otoh means if the success rate is not 0, then the average number of successes will be greater than 0, given enough attempts. Budgeting for 3 attempts at a single 90% affix is a 99.9% chance of success for example. Of course there's still a 1/1000 chance for 3 fails in a row but even if that happens, eventually there will be one success.

But with Extreceptor, you can get very decent 135 ATK 5-slot affixes with straight 100%s even on upslot

1. UQ Soul
2. Atk 3
3. Flict or Alter
4. Fever
5. Elegant

[Kondibon]

Gambler's Fallacy is used to describe either:

A) the base chance of success is different from the believed chance of success
B) failure will directly affect the success of an independent event

Neither of which really apply to brute forcing an affix with a fixed chance of success.

Law of large numbers otoh means if the success rate is not 0, then the average number of successes will be greater than 0, given enough attempts. Budgeting for 3 attempts at a single 90% affix is a 99.9% chance of success for example. Of course there's still a 1/1000 chance for 3 fails in a row but even if that happens, eventually there will be one success.

I think my problem is that budgeting for multiple failures is so expensive to the point where the cost effectiveness doesn't make any sense, and most of the meseta doesn't even go into sinks, it goes into other players hands. I dunno anymore, I just know the affix system is dumb. :/

But with Extreceptor, you can get very decent 135 ATK 5-slot affixes with straight 100%s even on upslot

1. UQ Soul
2. Atk 3
3. Flict or Alter
4. Fever
5. Elegant

Well that's just to the point where the cost effectiveness isn't even worth it.

[isCasted]

5s

1. Fever
2. Elegant

I wouldn't put a freaking Fever even alongside a regular Boost (let alone Noble or Elegant), unless I went for a 7-8s affix (which I probably will never do, because fuck this system). Fever is either for budget affixes where Boosts would be overkill or certain types of affix that are just there for e-peen, and this is a colossal waste of money.

[Selphea]

I wouldn't put a freaking Fever even alongside a regular Boost (let alone Noble or Elegant), unless I went for a 7-8s affix (which I probably will never do, because fuck this system). Fever is either for budget affixes where Boosts would be overkill or certain types of affix that are just there for e-peen, and this is a colossal waste of money.

Yes I wouldn't put a Fever with Elegant myself but that's the best a straight 100% 5S upslot get for ATK afaik.

[milranduil]

Yes I wouldn't put a Fever with Elegant myself but that's the best a straight 100% 5S upslot get for ATK afaik.

that's why you put spirita or stamina3 instead.

[Selphea]

that's why you put spirita or stamina3 instead.

Incidentally that's exactly what I did

[sparab]

I don't know when and why this thread got derailed to another affix war nor do I care.

But the fact is: In future, you only need a weapon grinding (title?) to get in expert blocks. Using ungrinded weapon or umbra stick in such blocks will NOT cause the system to kick you out.

"It's up to players conscience" -Kimura

[SteveCZ]

But the fact is:

Source?

[sparab]

Source?

http://www.g-heaven.net/topics/2016/12/161221a.html

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