What char for seaside runs

[Splash]

12000 runs is just the likely hood of getting it. Seriously, it is not worth it if you don't have plus version or online. Unless you are absolutely lucky and get it in 100, you would have better chances hunting for something else.

[xxTrystanxx]

On 2006-09-08 05:41, UrikoBB3 wrote:

(Just try doing a full PW#4 in Ult without any Rangers...)

*cry* I will never do that again... EVER.

[Delfi]

On 2006-09-08 00:39, Pontifex wrote:
I cant get pso plus in europe
Btw if the drop rate is 1/12603 or so, it means i should get it when i did that many runs, it also means i can get it on the first or 2nd. it really isnt gonna take 12603 kills lol

WRONG! you are hoping it wont take you that many runs, but from my understanding it means once you have killed 12,603 gigues you will have had only a 83% chance of getting the sealed J sword.But like someone else said, you could get very very lucky and get it very early like from your 100th kill or even your first.However for you real % of it dropping do this small sum 83/12,603 = 0.0065 rounded to 2.decimal places, this your % chance of getting it from each gi gue you kill. Oh by the way GOOD LUCK hunting this item.

[Splash]

On 2006-09-09 02:37, Delfi wrote:
WRONG! you are hoping it wont take you that many runs, but from my understanding it means once you have killed 12,603 gigues you will have had only a 83% chance of getting the sealed J sword.But like someone else said, you could get very very lucky and get it very early like from your 100th kill or even your first.However for you real % of it dropping do this small sum 83/12,603 = 0.0065 rounded to 2.decimal places, this your % chance of getting it from each gi gue you kill. Oh by the way GOOD LUCK hunting this item.

Where did you get 83 from?

Since there is only one Gi Gue per Seaside run, it will always be 1/12603 literally. The percentage is more like 0.00008% of getting it. Unless you did a quest that has more Gi Gue's in it, that's the percent you will likely get a SJS.

[T0m]

1/12604 means the chance of not getting it is 12603/12604 (approx. 0.9999 ).
After 12603 kills, the chance of not finding one is (12603/12604)to the 12603rd power, which is about 0.368
The chance that you found at least one must then be equal to 1-0.368

So the chance of having found it after 12603 kills is 0.632, or about 63%. Which is pretty disheartening, so best forget about that right away

Splash is right of course. The chance of getting it each time you kill a Gue is of course equal to the droprate (which is, according to the charts 1/12604).

[Deathwatch]

All this really makes me not want to hunt the SJS, especially since my Skyly is level 11 and offline only.

Wheee!

[Splash]

Exactly, you just get 0.00008% chance of getting a SJS for each one you kill, by the drop rate.

It also does seem like TOm is right. From the 12603 Gi Gue's killed, the chances of one them dropping is 63%. Notice that it is not 100% meaning that you won't be able to get one automatically from 12603 Gi Gues. So even if you killed this much, it might not even show it until like 30000. If the 63% is on your side, you would probably get it.

[Delfi]

ahh yes my apologies, it is 63% (note to self next time check the formula) - 83 or 85 i think is wot i concluded to if you have killed 2x drop rate in this case 25,000 or so.Sorry i got confused.