PSU-Item: Grinding Failure Chances

[Liokia]

It appears to me that the chances on a grind failure is far from what the game tells us. My grinding just went as follows:

Hajirod 2->3 B+5 Success (VH)
Hajirod 3->4 B+7 Failure (VH)
Hajirod 2->3 B+4 Failure (VH)
Hajirod 2->3 B+4 Success (VH)
Altera 5->6 C+10 Success (H)
Altera 6->7 C+9 Failure (50/50)
Hajirod 5->6 B+10 Failure (H)
Hajirod 5->6 B+10 Failure (H)

Since the game tells us that 50/50 is lower then High or Very High then one would assume that after a 50/50 failure that I should have been able to succedd with apparent H=(X/X > 50/50) and should I then fail... I should very well be able to manage on the follow up... however facts would show... /cry

[Randomness]

Probability can very easily appear wrong in small-scale testing. For true accuracy, you need to do hundreds of trials.

[MXdude]

iv flipped a coin and gotten tails 5 times in a row....still 50/50 >.>

[ViciousXUSMC]

its just so random :/ I never go past +4

its not grinding but I want to add this since it seems relivant and I dont want to start a whole thread on it.

Raising my tech PM I started making hajirods soon as it hit tech 20 all the way from tech 20 to tech 40 NOT ONE failed I made like 40 rods with a 50-60% chance and they all worked. Yesterday when I hit tech 40 and was in the high 60's and now low 70's % for success... They are failing left and right.

Its not uncommon for 3 out of 4 to fail on me eatch batch and my cash flow is now negative.

That just seems WAY too random to me to be random



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: ViciousXUSMC on 2006-12-02 18:09 ]</font>

[Arislan]

Not really. You could have a 99% chance and fail it twice. Chance is 1 in 10,000, but it can happen. Did to me about 3 hours ago in a game I was playing. I then proceeded to make 4 ~35% chance "rolls" in a row, so I guess the RNG was being its normal, inscrutable self. Really need more controlled, high count data to make a good experiment with grinding. Around 1000 or so grinds at each level with each + of grinder should begin to give an idea of a percentage.

[MXdude]

40 rods O.o wow. thats....insane lol

[ViciousXUSMC]

Well more like 30 honestly now that I think about it, but thats still kinda strange how it worked out.

I was totaly like "yes! im so glad I am spending the time/money on a tech PM this is so much better than hunter weps" making haji's left and right and they sell for 16k like candy. Now im just making expensive monomates like candy.

I was so confident from all the no-fails at low % that now with a high % its kinda freaking me out and im almost scared to craft. The mats for these are almost NPC price in everybodies shop unless your lucky and find 1 or 2 here and there. So failing cost you alot.





<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: ViciousXUSMC on 2006-12-02 18:14 ]</font>

[Liokia]

It didn't bother me @ first about the high failure rate with supposidly above 50% success probabilty however... this is how all my grinding adventures have gone thus far... past (2) on the B Grinders, High for me is ringing in a whopping 33% success rate while VH is scoring a total of 38%... I am currently @ 137 grinding attempts 85 B rank and 52 C rank... I am going to keep charting this to whatever extent needed... I am wondering if there is anyone out there that is also tracking their grinds?

[Killuminati]

On 2006-12-02 18:03, Liokia wrote:
It appears to me that the chances on a grind failure is far from what the game tells us. My grinding just went as follows:

Hajirod 2->3 B+5 Success (VH)
Hajirod 3->4 B+7 Failure (VH)
Hajirod 2->3 B+4 Failure (VH)
Hajirod 2->3 B+4 Success (VH)
Altera 5->6 C+10 Success (H)
Altera 6->7 C+9 Failure (50/50)
Hajirod 5->6 B+10 Failure (H)
Hajirod 5->6 B+10 Failure (H)

Since the game tells us that 50/50 is lower then High or Very High then one would assume that after a 50/50 failure that I should have been able to succedd with apparent H=(X/X > 50/50) and should I then fail... I should very well be able to manage on the follow up... however facts would show... /cry

Wow with +10 bases and you still failed... I geuss I was wrong to think that +10 bases would not fail. Did you try this with luck btw or without luck?

[Dj_SkyEpic]

I had a theory on grinding. Here it is as followed.

My theory is that grinding is by chance of +luck day and speed when you grind.
I say speed because most people tend to rush their grind and always seem to fail miserably. What I want to point out is that you should try taking your time and not repeatedly grind items to the max in one day... Take time to equip your success in order to come back later and grind up some more.

I know it may sound strange... "Grind too fast and it will blow!So slow down a bit!" but I've been taking my time slowly and grinding one weapon timely. I have yet to have my weapon blown up since my 5 hajis last 2 weeks ago. BUT dont trust me too much on this, it's only a theory I tell everyone.

Try some tricks yourselves and maybe formulate some more equations... There must be some other way to defeat failure rates besides just theorys.