how about the possibility that beat time has something to do with it?
think about it you can pipe for hours at a time and get nothing but sometimes you walk in a room with multiple rare enimes. I know you can say theres no beat that will always give you a certain rare monster but maybe theres better chances for rare monsters at different beats. thats my theory about it.
No. No nonononononon no no no.On 2005-09-09 16:47, Yui wrote:
how about the possibility that beat time has something to do with it?
There are definately "bursts" in which rare enemies appear and in which rare items drop. It's pretty ridiculous and foolish of ST to make things this way. It became clear to me when I did 30 seabed runs the other day. First 2 runs I found a total of 4-5 red boxes. 28 more runs and I didn't get a single drop. That's just an example...but even with FiY runs I've encountered the same thing. Usually, Rappies would drop 2-3 boxes in the same room...or drop none at all the whole run.On 2005-09-09 16:47, Yui wrote:
how about the possibility that beat time has something to do with it?
think about it you can pipe for hours at a time and get nothing but sometimes you walk in a room with multiple rare enimes. I know you can say theres no beat that will always give you a certain rare monster but maybe theres better chances for rare monsters at different beats. thats my theory about it.
One of my reasons for quitting the "PSO" series and never going back to it. In fact, I'll never play another game that centers itself around rares.
Most people say the time has nothing to do with it, because it would be ridiculous were it true. Unfortunately time has something to do with it and we all notice the "bursts" of rares dropping. We all notice the frustration of making hundreds of attemps at hunting certain rare monster without reaping any fruit....only to one day see multiple rare enemies in one run.
i dont know if someone actually knows how the game was written, but a way to explain the "bursts" of rare drops could be a "VARIABLE GENERAL rare drop rate???" that unifromly affects rare drops ON TOP of their original drop rates.
Confusing? Lemme explain. Say every monster has a set drop rate hard coded into the game according to section id etc such as those listed on PSOW. Then, in addition, there is another number. This number is set, pseudo-randomly, everytime you start the console, start a lap, telepipe, start a quest etc. This number is multiplied into the drop rate for each monster mentioned above and that is the FINAL number used to determine if you get a rare drop or not.
I have no clue if this is how they made the game, but it could explain the "bursts" people notice. Beats might have something to do with it, cuz many random-number generators are based on clocks(yes, like the one in the right hand corner of your computer screen for windoze users). But having randomized drops based solely on beats isnt random enough. There's gotta be another factor(maybe some combination using ur stats, # of items ur holding, $ amount of all the items in the shops combined etc.) Could be anything.
Ya so when I dont get a drop for a long time. I reset the GC and play again. I dont know if it works, but it makes me feel good. Superstition... go figure.
Well i am told constantly by the peoples of this forum that beats dont have anything to do with it yet they all put starting and ending beat times in their excavation reports...WHY IS THIS ???
The "excavation report" standard was actually created waaaaaay back when, before the "beat time theory" was discredited (indeed, one of the stated objectives was to test whether the beat time theory was accurate or not*).
The "beat time theory" will never die for five separate reasons that I can think of off the top of my head:
(a) The human psyche is pre-programmed to seek patterns. We all do it. It's the same reason you can stare at an abstract pattern in the wallpaper and start seeing pictures, or why you see clouds that look like things, or why we believe that patterns of stars that are dozens of light years away from each other match up into meaningful constellations, or why people are constantly finding images of the Virgin Mary in sidewalk cracks, potatoes** that look like Elvis. We will always try to match up random data to create patterns, regardless if there is any pattern there to be found.
(b) Most people also try to seek control over their own lives. No one likes to be at the mercy of random forces. The "beat time theory" is PSO's own little version of various "systems" and rituals that gamblers use at betting, picking "lucky numbers" on lottery tickets, and so on. It gives the believer the illusion of control -- "I will play at time X and therefore I will maximize my chances of obtaining item Y."
(a+b) You'll note the similarity of the "beat time theory" to the kind of thing that happens after a plane crash or similar disaster, when inevitably some grieving family member will announce "I just KNEW this would happen! I just KNEW it!" with complete truthfulness--ignoring the fact that he/she also "just KNEW something bad would happen" the hundred or so previous plane flights in which nothing happens. In a way, it's psychologically consoling to believe these kind of illusions, that we have power over our own lives, and it also shows how we mentally edit the data of our own experiences.
(c) The "beat time theory" is given additional fuel by the fact that there are genuine, proven, obvious examples of where beat time has effects on gameplay--the Heaven's Punisher special attack and the Morning Glory's ATP value for example. Thus it's even more tempting to believe that "if it affects this and this, then why not drop rates"?
(d) Part of the problem with anecdotal evidence (a/k/a "listening to people's stories") is that no one player's personal experiences has statistical significance (i.e. "enough data to draw valid conclusions from). We're dealing with probabilities here, and moreover, such low probabilities that for the majority of rares, no one has actually experienced enough samples that said sample size can be used to draw statistical conclusions from. Every single person who plays PSO will have some anomaly hit (in my own case, on my very first time playing GC PSO, with my very first character, I found a Gobooma's Right Arm in the second room of Normal Forest 2, and I happened to pick up an Orotiagito on the nth Whitill Mil Lily that exactly matched the drop rate, and yet I've never gotten a Crimson Assassin drop in Temple in ANY section ID--none of which proves anything about anything), and some experiences that are close to the expected value. So you get a lot of stories about how, "While I played X happened" and "When I did this, it took only Y tries."
(e) Math. There is a certain slice of the population who just do not understand what probability theory is about, even on a very basic level. These are the ones who say stuff like "I killed 788 Crimson Assassins; where's my Yasminkov?!?" Beyond that baseline level of bad math skills, probability and statistics are actually very complicated areas and some of the ideas involved require relatively difficult math not easily comprehended by the layman.
For these reasons and probably several others (heck, I thought of the last two after I started typing the first three; I'm sure there are more), the "beat time theory" will be with us forever. Consider it in a way to be Phantasy Star Online's own home-grown religion: there's no scientific evidence for it, but there's plenty of faith.
*The goal here was to actually amass enough data through combining everyone's excavation reports that there might BE statistically significant sample sizes.
**I just realized that, whether you spell it "potato" or "potatoe," the plural is always "potatoes." Which tells you that I really need more sleep.
I understand what you mean but still when you go into rooms and get mutliple rare enimes I think that counts for something. I mean I know that you can't get a certain beat time to get a rare monster but don't you think that it may effect it in some way? but maybe your right and its just me tring to figure out a pattern.
I think it would be a good idea to try and get enough data to test it out. not to long ago I started keeping track of the beat times I found all my rare monsters.
Just a thought, but (unless my disc is completely messed up) my game resets the beat clock every time I shut off my GC. And I STILL get those "bursts" that we're talking about. Also, on topic, take a break from piping Torrs every once in a while. That way, when you do find one, it'll be so much better. And if it doesn't drop X rare, you can be like "s***t, stupid thing...oh well, I'll look for somehting else for a while." Good luck to you!
I think that there is a connection between time and rare enemies, but not time and rare items. I heard somewhere that Oran and Purplenum have their highest chance of getting a Hildetorr when the time is near 665 (an oran player gets two Hildes in one room at 666, and the next day before that time, tells a purplenum player. The Purplenum player pipes a few times and gets one at 665. Coincidence? I think not). My cousin, who is Redria got 4 Nar Lilies in 2 hours. I piped 200 times with 4 hildebears and got no hildeblue, when another time, I piped a few times with 1 hildelt and got a hildetorr.
Chances are that there is some formula for each rare enemy per difficulty, with every section ID, that involves a certain time.
I'm not saying that there is a time when you're guaranteed the rare monster. It's more like, as the time gets closer to a specific number, the chance of finding the rare monster is increased from 1/512 to something like 1/300, with a cap on how far the drop rate is moved. The experience of a single person isn't enough to prove anything, but when added and compared with many other people's experiences, it could be part of the answer to many theories.
Now, I probably wasn't a member of this site back when this theory was discredited but I have seen a number of topics since basically stating the fact that the theory was void.On 2005-09-10 05:58, DezoPenguin wrote:
The "excavation report" standard was actually created waaaaaay back when, before the "beat time theory" was discredited
Please could somebody explain why (and I don't want the usual ZOMG CHECK TEH OLD TOPICS KTHXBAI replies) this theory was disproven and, if at all possible, in as much detail as you can (and, as a programmer and statistician, the more detail the merrier). I'm happy to concede that the beat time theory is a figment of the imagination but I'd like to know how this was agreed on.
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