Probability Rare Drop Ratios

[Mute]

Eh... he wasn't saying that exactly. I totally understand his theory. It's not restating the obvious, he was trying to get at the complex idea of the actual item drop ratio for each individual monster. It's perfectly logical, albeit rigorous. The only supposed way to even test it would be to note everything you find from a particular monster type in a particular area. And, unless it's done an incredible amount of times, the results will be inaccurate. I'm sure there is some complex statistical way that would yield these answers. However, for the time being, I'll just rely on pure dumb luck. ;P

[Phartoophar]

This is a good idea, and you have the right approach to uncovering the ratios, but I thought, as a scientist, I ought to point something important out to you. People are more likely to remember either really crappy finds or really good ones, even forgetting about a nar lilly that had a so so item. So you should scrap any data before a start point where you note every item. Otherwise you will be measuring how it seems rather than how it is.

Sorry if that was overly anal, but it is kind of an important point.

[VulpesMundi]

Theories will be theories. But you could kill a million critters and still not get any accurate results. The fact of the matter is that the only people who truly know how the system works are the programmers at Sonic Team who put the system together. My guess is they'll never talk, simply because Sonic Team thinks they've got something good and don't want their secret revealed to other companies who might steal the idea. Besides, isn't it more exciting to be surprised by that shiny red box rather than know it's coming?

Almost every critter has at least one special item. If you kill that same critter over and over and over again logic says that eventually it will drop something good. It might take five kills, or it might take fifty, or maybe even five hundred. You just have to get lucky, that's all. There's no rhyme or reason to it.

I do agree that certain critters have different odds of dropping certain items, tho. This seems to change per critter per ID. One critter on one ID may drop items more commonly on one ID, but less commonly on another. Obviously the rare critters have a might higher drop rate than regular critters. I'd even wager that bosses have a higher drop rate than regular critters. Both of these are simply because you see rare and boss critters less than regular critters - it's pretty much common sense. However, putting a feasable ratio to this is nearly impossible without knowing exactly how the item drop tables are put together. If you really want to figure this out find someone who can decompile the data on a GC-ROM disc and have them locate and decipher the item drop table data. That's about the only way it'll ever be figured out.